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World Soccer X: Duh, duh, duh, duh...The Champions!

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Re: World Soccer X: Duh, duh, duh, duh...The Champions!

In a little game I'm going to play until the official draw comes out, here's today's "Random World Cup Draw of the Day." Since the official rules aren't out yet, I took a few liberties in guesstimating things this time around. Today's draw is postulated on a few points:

1. FIFA puts CONMEBOL and Africa in the same pot. It might be more likely that they do it the other way around (CONCACAF+Africa) in hopes of making a very easy draw for the hosts, but I'll do it both ways in the future to keep discussion up.

2. In this case, FIFA seeds the Dutch but not the Portuguese or French. Borderline impossible to read their minds without knowing the process yet, but this is just for the sake of discussion.

3. All other rules (as far as I know them), such as no two teams from the same confed (or three from UEFA) together, are followed. Here's what I got.

GROUP A: South Africa, Switzerland, Paraguay, South Korea

GROUP B: Netherlands, Portugal, Uruguay, Australia

GROUP C: Germany, Serbia, Cameroon, USA

GROUP D: Brazil, France, Ivory Coast, Mexico

GROUP E: Italy, Denmark, Ghana, Honduras

GROUP F: Argentina, Slovenia, Nigeria, Japan

GROUP G: England, Slovakia, Algeria, North Korea

GROUP H: Spain, Greece, Chile, New Zealand

Group of Death: D is for Duh. If this group actually happened, I'd be rolling on the floor laughing, mostly because Mexico would be looking at a 3-and-out square in the face.

Group of Life: G. This is a shamefully easy ticket to the knockout stages for England.

Difficulty of USA's draw on a scale of 1-10: 7. They can play with Germany a little, but Serbia were excellent in qualifying, and Cameroon's not an easy out. Not to mention the fact that there are all sorts of nasty France '98 flashbacks with this group. Where's a 3-6-1 when you need it?

Difficulty of England's draw on a scale of 1-10: -5. Seriously.

Fun fixture of the first round (for football reasons): Any game in Group D not involving Mexico

Excruciating fixture of the first round: Paraguay-Switzerland. If that wouldn't be a 0-0, I'd eat my hat.

Politically fun fixture of the first round: England-North Korea. Well, North Korea against any capitalist nation would be a hoot, really.

Who cares? fixture of the first round: Ghana-Honduras.
 
Re: World Soccer X: Duh, duh, duh, duh...The Champions!

2. In this case, FIFA seeds the Dutch but not the Portuguese or French. Borderline impossible to read their minds without knowing the process yet, but this is just for the sake of discussion.

You should assume that France is seeded until FIFA announces a change. They will be if the 2006 seeding formula is used.
 
Re: World Soccer X: Duh, duh, duh, duh...The Champions!

In Friday's Random Draw of the Day, I managed to come up with something even more ghastly for the USMNT. Enjoy.

A: South Africa, Switzerland, Nigeria, New Zealand
B: England, Denmark, Algeria, Uruguay
C: Brazil, Slovenia, Mexico, Australia
D: France, Serbia, Ghana, North Korea
E: Italy, Portugal, Cote d’Ivoire, Chile
F: Germany, Netherlands, USA, South Korea
G: Argentina, Greece, Honduras, Japan
H: Spain, Slovakia, Cameroon, Paraguay

This time I used pots aligned CONCACAF/Africa and Asia/CONMEBOL and seeded France instead of the Netherlands, as Craig suggested. Also, we will probably have to wait a while for any definitive answers, as seeds will not be determined until a committee meeting Dec. 2 (and I'm guessing, the procedure for the rest of the draw with it.)
 
Re: World Soccer X: Duh, duh, duh, duh...The Champions!

EDIT: I'm referring to the Thursday draw.

3W's draw for today really shows how important the composition of the pots will be for us and CONCACAF in general. Today's pairing of South America and Africa would be a disaster. Algeria is probably the only team from those two confederations I would think we'd be expected to beat. That pairing would put us with a seeded team, a So, America/Africa team and a European team. Considering how we also tend to struggle with Europeans, it would be hard to get a good draw out of that. Even if we are lucky enough to get an Algeria, we could easily see a Holland or a Serbia with them. Notice Honduras and Mexico also got disaster draws.

This reinforces my thoughts that it would really help us a lot to get a situation with the pots where we can draw an Asian team. Of course every country in the world is hoping for that.
 
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Re: World Soccer X: Duh, duh, duh, duh...The Champions!

That Group A is atrocious.

Given that South Africa is a ranked team despite being one of the worst teams in the field, Group A is almost guaranteed to be weak (since they're guaranteed to be there).

I'd recommend praying for a Group A draw, but we'd probably just lose to South Africa anyway, which would be even more embarrassing.

John, funny you should mention Algeria... the US lucked out in both of the mock draws I did last night using the same rules as 3W did for his draw this morning. The first draw had the USMNT in Group C with Spain, Denmark, and Algeria. The second draw had them in Group H with Spain, Slovakia and Algeria.
 
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Re: World Soccer X: Duh, duh, duh, duh...The Champions!

John, funny you should mention Algeria... the US lucked out in both of the mock draws I did last night using the same rules as 3W did for his draw this morning. The first draw had the USMNT in Group C with Spain, Denmark, and Algeria. The second draw had them in Group H with Spain, Slovakia and Algeria.

We need to send you to Africa on the fourth! :) IMO, those are both dream draws for the US, given a CONCACAF/Africa pot. I'd personally chip in for the bribe necessary to get those draws.
 
Re: World Soccer X: Duh, duh, duh, duh...The Champions!

Spain is the team I'd most like to avoid out of the seeds. I'm sure they'd love to avenge their lone hiccup in the past 2-3 years. I don't know if we could scratch out anything against them.

Outside of South Africa I'd probably take France or maybe Italy as the ideal group seed.

Not so Fearless predictions: The Netherlands will not be the UEFA team in South Afrcia's group. New Zealand will be in South Africa's group.
 
Re: World Soccer X: Duh, duh, duh, duh...The Champions!

In Friday's Random Draw of the Day, I managed to come up with something even more ghastly for the USMNT. Enjoy.

A: South Africa, Switzerland, Nigeria, New Zealand
B: England, Denmark, Algeria, Uruguay
C: Brazil, Slovenia, Mexico, Australia
D: France, Serbia, Ghana, North Korea
E: Italy, Portugal, Cote d’Ivoire, Chile
F: Germany, Netherlands, USA, South Korea
G: Argentina, Greece, Honduras, Japan
H: Spain, Slovakia, Cameroon, Paraguay

I like these better than Thursdays. I might have an incorrect bias, but I think we can expect to beat the Asian and OFC teams. I know Australia and So. Korea in particular are good, but not beyond us. In the last two World Cups over half the teams with four points advanced. Any scenario that gets us a three point win is a good one.

Mexico and Honduras also got decent draws. In all these scenarios, our position is interchangeable with those two, so it's kind of like getting three possible draws in each.


This is how the confederations break down with CraigP's seeding.

Seeded teams: 8

UEFA: 8

Africa: 5

Asia: 4

New Zealand: 1

South America: 3

CONCACAF: 3

That fills up Pot A and B with seeds and Europe. It would then make sense to team New Zealand with Asia and then pair the fives with the threes, which all of you are doing.
 
Re: World Soccer X: Duh, duh, duh, duh...The Champions!

Gotta say, I'm even more impressed with Henry for waiting until after FIFA denied the appeals to suddenly appear and say the fairest thing to do would be a replay. Ah, the French. Losers since Caesar.

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5jaokRH-EGIsDjKqZ-KSXfwqvosoQD9C3AOFG0

LONDON — Thierry Henry denied Friday that he was a cheat but said the "fairest solution" would be to replay the France-Ireland World Cup playoff that was decided by his hand ball.

Henry set up the deciding goal for William Gallas by controlling the ball with his hand in Wednesday's 1-1 draw at the Stade de France. The goal in extra time gave France a spot in next year's World Cup with a 2-1 aggregate victory over Ireland after two legs of the playoffs.

"Of course the fairest solution would be to replay the game but it is not in my control," Henry said in a a statement.

Earlier Friday, world governing body FIFA rejected a request by the Football Association of Ireland for the game to be replayed.

Henry admitted he handled the ball and felt embarrassed at how France qualified for the World Cup at the expense of Ireland.

"I have said at the time and I will say again that yes I handled the ball," he said in the statement issued to British media. "I am not a cheat and never have been. It was an instinctive reaction to a ball that was coming extremely fast in a crowded penalty area."

"I have never denied that the ball was controlled with my hand," Henry said. "I told the Irish players, the referee and the media this after the game."

The Barcelona striker expressed sympathy for the Irish.

"Naturally, I feel embarrassed at the way that we won and feel extremely sorry for the Irish who definitely deserve to be in South Africa," he said. "There is little more I can do apart from admit that the ball had contact with my hand leading up to our equalizing goal and I feel very sorry for the Irish," he said.
 
Re: World Soccer X: Duh, duh, duh, duh...The Champions!

Anyone who's looking for tickets... the worst draw for the US would be to Group F out of Pot 3. In that scenario, the Yanks play at Rustenburg, Nelspruit, and Polokwane, the three smallest venues by capacity in the World Cup. At least the travel wouldn't be that bad...

On the other hand, a draw to Group B out of Pot 3 would include the second two games being played at Soccer City in Johannesburg (where the final is being played) and in Durban - the two largest venues. The first game is in Port Elizabeth.
 
Re: World Soccer X: Duh, duh, duh, duh...The Champions!

Sorry for all the posts everyone, I just have some time on my hands and soccer on my brain.

Spain is the team I'd most like to avoid out of the seeds. I'm sure they'd love to avenge their lone hiccup in the past 2-3 years. I don't know if we could scratch out anything against them.

Outside of South Africa I'd probably take France or maybe Italy as the ideal group seed.

One thing I always keep in mind when thinking about the seeded teams is how World Cup groups usually develop.

I think of teams like Brazil and Italy as slow starters. If a team can draw them in the opener, they have a decent chance at a point, but if you draw them in the second game, you have little chance.

I think of teams like England or Germany as a good draw for a second game. If they win their openers, they will come in overconfident.

And then the third game always has so much to do with whether teams have qualified or not yet. Any seeded or unseeded team that has already qualified is vulnerable for at least a point in the third game. They'll often give up a goal before they give up a yellow card.

Also, really strong teams like Brazil aren't always a bad draw. If they go through with nine points, then you are essentially in a three team group and a win and a tie will do it.

Bottom line; the order of the games is important.
 
Re: World Soccer X: Duh, duh, duh, duh...The Champions!

F: Germany, Netherlands, USA, South Korea
Ack. Like I said earlier, it'd be really nice to not get drawn with the Dutch out of that pot.
 
Re: World Soccer X: Duh, duh, duh, duh...The Champions!

Anyone who's looking for tickets... the worst draw for the US would be to Group F out of Pot 3. In that scenario, the Yanks play at Rustenburg, Nelspruit, and Polokwane, the three smallest venues by capacity in the World Cup. At least the travel wouldn't be that bad...

On the other hand, a draw to Group B out of Pot 3 would include the second two games being played at Soccer City in Johannesburg (where the final is being played) and in Durban - the two largest venues. The first game is in Port Elizabeth.

From what I understand and the stories I've heard, Johanesburg is a place I'd avoid like the plague. In terms of cities, Cape Town, Durban, and Port Elizabeth (all on the coast) seem to the best South Africa has too offer. Although one of the venues, maybe Nelspruit, is basically surrounded by enormous game preserves, which could be an awesome way to spend a day or two.
 
Re: World Soccer X: Duh, duh, duh, duh...The Champions!

Ack. Like I said earlier, it'd be really nice to not get drawn with the Dutch out of that pot.

The Dutch against what might be an undermanned US team sounds terrifying (for the US) and exhilirating (for the Dutch).

I fully admit I'm a Dutch fanboy in the World Cup.
 
Re: World Soccer X: Duh, duh, duh, duh...The Champions!

Sorry for all the posts everyone, I just have some time on my hands and soccer on my brain.



One thing I always keep in mind when thinking about the seeded teams is how World Cup groups usually develop.

I think of teams like Brazil and Italy as slow starters. If a team can draw them in the opener, they have a decent chance at a point, but if you draw them in the second game, you have little chance.

I think of teams like England or Germany as a good draw for a second game. If they win their openers, they will come in overconfident.

And then the third game always has so much to do with whether teams have qualified or not yet. Any seeded or unseeded team that has already qualified is vulnerable for at least a point in the third game. They'll often give up a goal before they give up a yellow card.

Also, really strong teams like Brazil aren't always a bad draw. If they go through with nine points, then you are essentially in a three team group and a win and a tie will do it.

Bottom line; the order of the games is important.

As I understand it, getting the aging Czechs in game one last time through was the worst possible set up in that group.
 
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