Wisconsin Hockey 2019-2020: Time to Get Offensive

[ExileOnDaytonStreet]

Re: Wisconsin Hockey 2019-2020: Time to Get Offensive

I’m fine with letting the Sandusky thing stain absolutely everything about that school for the rest of my life.

Having a legitimate reason to hate the hockey program is just icing on the cake.

 

[WiscTJK]

Re: Wisconsin Hockey 2019-2020: Time to Get Offensive

Lots of crickets when the badgers win huh? Weird. Wins a win.

I know this isn't specific to me, but I didn't see the game or hear for that matter on Saturday so I can't comment on how they played. I call it the way I see it good or bad. I tend to be a bit negative but solo has me beat most of the time.

 

[Wisko McBadgerton]

Re: Wisconsin Hockey 2019-2020: Time to Get Offensive

I’m fine with letting the Sandusky thing stain absolutely everything about that school for the rest of my life.

Having a legitimate reason to hate the hockey program is just icing on the cake.

It's important that Sandusky and the actions of PSU officials surrounding him, including and especially Paterno, (Man... Paterno - Once one of the most respected men in America. I couldn't have been more shocked if you told me John Wayne was actually a female KGB spy for 50 years.) not be forgotten.

Having said that though, the broad brush painting of the current students, athletes, and staff at PSU (that had absolutely nothing to do with any of it) with the Pedo tag makes me feel a bit queezy. If my kid was lucky enough to receive a scholly to play there and I was in the stands next to some idiot shouting about how PSU is all a bunch of pedophiles, we'd probably have words.

Having said THAT though, as far as their hockey players go -- Surprised Gadowsky doesn't open a bakery shop with all those muffins he has.

 

[Timothy A]

Re: Wisconsin Hockey 2019-2020: Time to Get Offensive

Lots of crickets when the badgers win huh? Weird. Wins a win.

I listened to both games on the radio and the D zone coverage/play was not good. I don't understand how a bunch of NHL caliber can play poorly in their own D zone and even be lazy in doing so. Maybe the drafted guys who play poorly need to be benched. It's especially troubling with Oz on the staff. At this rate, this team WILL be a one year wonder because the foundation is nothing but sand. I am troubled. I am going to watch the Friday game at some point this week to see for myself, but I trust Vogel/Posick/Perrin on the radio.

At this point, though he isn't necessarily scoring, he's doing everything but, Holloway looks like a one and done, doesn't he?

 

[WiscTJK]

Re: Wisconsin Hockey 2019-2020: Time to Get Offensive

I listened to both games on the radio and the D zone coverage/play was not good. I don't understand how a bunch of NHL caliber can play poorly in their own D zone and even be lazy in doing so. Maybe the drafted guys who play poorly need to be benched. It's especially troubling with Oz on the staff. At this rate, this team WILL be a one year wonder because the foundation is nothing but sand. I am troubled. I am going to watch the Friday game at some point this week to see for myself, but I trust Vogel/Posick/Perrin on the radio.

At this point, though he isn't necessarily scoring, he's doing everything but, Holloway looks like a one and done, doesn't he?

Amen on the bolded part! You are right one. It's like they are trying so hard to be offensive that they forget they are defensemen.....

 

[DPlaya]

I know this isn't specific to me, but I didn't see the game or hear for that matter on Saturday so I can't comment on how they played. I call it the way I see it good or bad. I tend to be a bit negative but solo has me beat most of the time.

Ditto

 

[digitalbooya]

Amen on the bolded part! You are right one. It's like they are trying so hard to be offensive that they forget they are defensemen.....

Miller and Kalynuk are the biggest culprits to bad play in the defensive zone. Our offensive defensemen. Not really surprised on that one.

Good news! Turcotte is back at practice today!

 

[Nick Papagiorgio]

Re: Wisconsin Hockey 2019-2020: Time to Get Offensive

I don't understand how a bunch of NHL caliber can play poorly in their own D zone and even be lazy in doing so.

They're NCAA-caliber. If they were NHL-caliber they would be in the NHL and getting paid to play.

Sometimes I need to remind myself of this when watching a college game.

 

[Wisko McBadgerton]

Re: Wisconsin Hockey 2019-2020: Time to Get Offensive

.

At this point, though he isn't necessarily scoring, he's doing everything but, Holloway looks like a one and done, doesn't he?

Holloway is really strong on the puck and really good without the puck and will obviously be a dominating NCAA player sometime soon. He's got a ways to go though to be NHL ready so my feeling now is that I would be surprised if he is one and done. Back here after he's drafted next year and then on to the show seems most likely to me at this point.

Turcotte will probably be good enough, but I feel right now that there's a strong chance he would come back. His dad, Alfie, a brilliant player at 18, is a bit of a cautionary tale of what can happen when you go up the ladder too soon, something Alfie has talked about on occasion. He's also said that he thinks kids are going up too fast, there's no hurry, and they aren't taking time to grow up or enjoy their time where they are. He's said once you sign the contract, the game isn't just a game, it's a job, and that changes everything about it and you need to be really sure your prepared and ready for that. That's all encouraging to me.

Seems like it will be hard to keep the Habs mitts off of Caufield as the crazy fans there are always clamoring for more scoring, and Caufield could probably be a PP specialist right now even if the rest of his game does still need polishing.

Long season yet so it's hard to say how it will all go. This spring will be an ultra nervous one for us though for sure.

 

[KaMiGo]

Re: Wisconsin Hockey 2019-2020: Time to Get Offensive

Updates after the UMD series (W 6-2, W 3-1)

Record: 3-1-0
USCHO Poll: 6
USA Today Poll: 6
PWR: 15
RPI: 15
KRACH: not available
Scoring: 5.75 GPG; 1st
Defense: 3.25 GAPG; 39th
Power Play Goals: 7; 1st
Power Play Rate: 38.89% (7 of 18); 3rd
Penalty Kill Rate: 88.24% (15 of 17), 20th
Penalty Min per Game: 13.75; 18th (1st is worst)
Shorthanded Goals Scored; 3; 1st
Shorthanded Goals Allowed: 0; 1st
Team Faceoff: 48.7%; 30th

Updates after the Clarkson series (L 0-4, W 4-3)

Record: 4-2-0
USCHO Poll: 7
USA Today Poll: (not yet released, will update)
PWR: 8
RPI: 8
KRACH: not available
Scoring: 4.5 GPG; 2nd
Defense: 3.33 GAPG; 44th
Power Play Goals: 7; 1st
Power Play Rate: 25.00% (7 of 28); 8th
Penalty Kill Rate: 90.91% (20 of 22), 20th
Penalty Min per Game: 10.83; 36th (1st is worst)
Shorthanded Goals Scored; 3; 1st
Shorthanded Goals Allowed: 0; 1st
Team Faceoff: 50.6%; 22nd

 

[Timothy A]

Re: Wisconsin Hockey 2019-2020: Time to Get Offensive

They're NCAA-caliber. If they were NHL-caliber they would be in the NHL and getting paid to play.

These guys won't get out of the ECHL if they play like that.

 

[WiscTJK]

Re: Wisconsin Hockey 2019-2020: Time to Get Offensive

Updates after the Clarkson series (L 0-4, W 4-3)

Record: 4-2-0
USCHO Poll: 7
USA Today Poll: (not yet released, will update)
PWR: 8
RPI: 8
KRACH: not available
Scoring: 4.5 GPG; 2nd
Defense: 3.33 GAPG; 44th
Power Play Goals: 7; 1st
Power Play Rate: 25.00% (7 of 28); 8th
Penalty Kill Rate: 90.91% (20 of 22), 20th
Penalty Min per Game: 10.83; 36th (1st is worst)
Shorthanded Goals Scored; 3; 1st
Shorthanded Goals Allowed: 0; 1st
Team Faceoff: 50.6%; 22nd

That's some improvement and huge jump in PWR. Need to improve on the defensive side of things.....

 

[DPlaya]

Weissbach-Baker-S. Dhooghe
Ahcan-Holloway-C. Caufield
Gorniak-Pelton-Byce-Lindmark
Zimmer-Messner-B. Caufield

Miller-Emberson
Kalynuk-Inamoto
Ess-Vorlicky

Lebedeff
Barry

These were the lines somebody posted for Saturday, but I think J. Dhooghe played. Wonder how they are going to look Thursday with Turcotte back in the lineup? Will Zimmer and J. Dhooghe make the lineup again?

Will Tony go back to his desire to have the penalty killers stay in the bottom 6?

 

[digitalbooya]

These were the lines somebody posted for Saturday, but I think J. Dhooghe played. Wonder how they are going to look Thursday with Turcotte back in the lineup? Will Zimmer and J. Dhooghe make the lineup again?

Will Tony go back to his desire to have the penalty killers stay in the bottom 6?

It was the lineup Milewski had on Twitter. It listed J Dhooghe as an extra skater. Almost certain he played as well.

I hope Ahcan-Lindmark just keep doing their thing on the PK.

 

[Wisko McBadgerton]

Re: Wisconsin Hockey 2019-2020: Time to Get Offensive

These were the lines somebody posted for Saturday, but I think J. Dhooghe played. Wonder how they are going to look Thursday with Turcotte back in the lineup? Will Zimmer and J. Dhooghe make the lineup again?

Will Tony go back to his desire to have the penalty killers stay in the bottom 6?

It's kind of a conundrum. First, I think they put Linus back with Turk and Goal. After that though I don't know what they'll do. On the one hand, if you truly want to reward the guys who play the best with more ice time, you put Lindy and Rome with Holloway as they were the best players on the ice last weekend. Which leave you Dhooghe-Bakes -TPB. I kind of like that vs. PSU because it matches a line with the 5'3" Dhooghster vs 6'8" Pavlychev and I think Dhooghe is oddly more effective and plays better against guys like that.

On the other hand though, PSU has a really, really, dangerous PP and with the way that PP goals can change momentum, do you really not want to have your best PK pair on the ice?

I would move Lindy and Rome up because they've earned the ice time, but I'm not at all certain that's the best thing to do. Be interesting to see what they do decide.

 

[BWHockey]

Re: Wisconsin Hockey 2019-2020: Time to Get Offensive

ESG---SOG/GP---Pen----Line
3 ------ 7 -------- 10 ---- Baker-Holloway-S.Dhooghe
5 ------ 7.75 -- --- 3 ---- Weissbach-Turc-C.Caufield
6 ------ 5.34 -- --- 1 ---- Ahcan-TPB-Lindmark
1 ------ 6.56 -- --- 3 ---- Gorniak & Co. (Brock,Ryder,Mick,Dom,JD&Max)

ESG = Even Strength Goals ("Total Goals - PPGF - SHGF", couldn't find official stats so had to create it on my own)

It's not rational to think Wisc's SHGF will be > PPGA like it is now (+1). You also have to assume that they’ll give up a higher % of goals on the PK. The top 30 PK%s last year averaged about 85%, Wisc is at 90% currently. What I’m getting at is the Baker – Holloway – S. Dhooghe line will eventually start costing the team in the form of more PPGA, less PPP time and less Even Strength Time.

 

[Wisko McBadgerton]

Re: Wisconsin Hockey 2019-2020: Time to Get Offensive

ESG---SOG/GP---Pen----Line
5 ------ 7 -------- 10 ---- Baker-Holloway-S.Dhooghe
5 ------ 7.75 -- --- 3 ---- Weissbach-Turc-C.Caufield
6 ------ 5.34 -- --- 1 ---- Ahcan-TPB-Lindmark
1 ------ 6.56 -- --- 3 ---- Gorniak & Co. (Brock,Ryder,Mick,Dom,JD&Max)

ESG = Even Strength Goals ("Total Goals - PPGF - SHGF", couldn't find official stats so had to create it on my own)

It's not rational to think Wisc's SHGF will be > PPGA like it is now (+1). You also have to assume that they’ll give up a higher % of goals on the PK. The top 30 PK%s last year averaged about 85%, Wisc is at 90% currently. What I’m getting at is the Baker – Holloway – S. Dhooghe line will eventually start costing the team in the form of more PPGA, less PPP time and less Even Strength Time.

Baker has 1 ES goal, Holloway has 1 ES goal, Dhooghe has 1 ENG, None have a PPG, so that number seems wrong to me to start?


One of the huge problems with NCAA stats is the lack of TOI stats. It's possible, for example, that Holloway's line has a lower penalty/minute played rate than the 4th line does, due to much, much, more ice time.

The other thing about this is that I think the sample size is entirely too small to draw this sort of conclusion from 6 total games, but 2 without Turcotte, so 1/3 of the data comes from games where some or all lines were changed.

SOG/G stats are skewed on this team right now too, although they may continue that way for awhile. Turcotte and Lindmark combine for 7 goals on 12 shots, so you could say one of their shots is worth maybe 4 or 5 shots from the other guys. Its pretty early, and even later on, without TOI, some of this stuff is hard to interpret correctly.

 

[BWHockey]

Re: Wisconsin Hockey 2019-2020: Time to Get Offensive

Thanks, I had them at 3 ESG in my spreadsheet, but transposed in wrong. I totally agree with you on the TOI stat. Regarding the SOG/GP stats, I'm not drawing any conclusion from it, just showing that it's relatively even. Also, i know 1/3 is a little skewed and the sample size is small, but these are the lines that we seen when everyone has been available. It'll be interesting to see where this data set is in a month or two.

Baker has 1 ES goal, Holloway has 1 ES goal, Dhooghe has 1 ENG, None have a PPG, so that number seems wrong to me to start?

 

[Wisko McBadgerton]

Re: Wisconsin Hockey 2019-2020: Time to Get Offensive

Thanks, I had them at 3 ESG in my spreadsheet, but transposed in wrong. I totally agree with you on the TOI stat. Regarding the SOG/GP stats, I'm not drawing any conclusion from it, just showing that it's relatively even. Also, i know 1/3 is a little skewed and the sample size is small, but these are the lines that we seen when everyone has been available. It'll be interesting to see where this data set is in a month or two.

I was referring to SOG/ goals scored likely being an anomaly right now. Doubtful Lindy and Turk continue at .500 or .600 SH% all year. Although I'd be happy if they did!

I gathered you were concluding that Holloway's line will cost the team eventually, basically because of the penalty rate their on right now. Sorry if that's wrong. I was just thinking that it's hard to tell comparatively just how bad it is, (agree it's too high though) and whether or not it's just an early season anomaly. (Hopefully) This did make me check their +/- though and it's 0, -1, -1. Considering they only have 3 goals, and assuming they have played a lot of minutes against top scoring lines, (seems like they have) we can't totally disregard the value they might add in stopping opponents from scoring. If they are. Be interesting to know if the lines they played against scored less than their average. Seems probable.

On another subject, one of the little things I noticed happening this last weekend is that a lot of guys weren't making timely changes in the O zone. We'd get them pinned in and hold the puck for a minute or more without changing, then the turnover would come, they'd change to the top line behind the play and we'd have 5 gassed guys getting pinned in our end and giving up scoring chances. It's something guys have to be more disciplined about. That can not only be costly at the time, but those 2-3 minute shifts add up by late in the game when you really need your legs to work.

 

[BWHockey]

Re: Wisconsin Hockey 2019-2020: Time to Get Offensive

In 18-19 an average Shots on Goal / Goals For of the Top 30 Teams was 9.7. Right now, the LAPB and Turc lines are at 4 Shots per Goal. It’s hard to imagine that will continue, just like it’s hard to imagine the 4th line will continue at a 27 Shots/ Goal pace when these players averaged 10.8 Shots / Goals in 18-19.

You got my thoughts on the Holloway line correct. Their penalty rate probably won’t continue at this pace, but if it does it has to be addressed bc overall penalties will start to have a negative impact.

I guess I’m also surprised that we are -1 at Even Strength (17GF v 18GA),-2 if you take out Dhooghe’s ENG.

Any thoughts on whether Roman (5’9”) will get drafted this year because of his play?