WISCONSIN HOCKEY 09-10 - Climbing The Mountain (7th Edition?)

[ExileOnDaytonStreet]

Re: WISCONSIN HOCKEY 09-10 - Climbing The Mountain (7th Edition?)

At least some of them get it, as I happily noticed many of them pointing to their ears last weekend. You can't really hear which version they're singing- or at least I can't- even as close as 109, but the pointing? Like it.

The students do have some strengths this year. I'm liking the way the new ticket assignment (day of at admission) system is filling the lower tier by puck drop; at least the front rows are full and appear to contain people interested in the game, and that's an improvement.

The glory days of ticket line and the strong section it produced are over though... those of us who experienced it should probably just count ourselves lucky to have done so.

Good to see that we're getting the benefits out of the new ticket policy that we expected.

Couldn't agree more with the last statement. We truly did luck out.

On another note:

http://noalibisnoregrets.blogspot.com/2009/11/culvers-camp-randall-hockey-classic.html

Most of the lower bowl is, evidently, sold out. Only tickets in the south end zone remain before they open the upper deck for the Camp Randall game.

 

[aktick]

Re: WISCONSIN HOCKEY 09-10 - Climbing The Mountain (7th Edition?)

Good to see that we're getting the benefits out of the new ticket policy that we expected.

Couldn't agree more with the last statement. We truly did luck out.

On another note:

http://noalibisnoregrets.blogspot.com/2009/11/culvers-camp-randall-hockey-classic.html

Most of the lower bowl is, evidently, sold out. Only tickets in the south end zone remain before they open the upper deck for the Camp Randall game.

I'm still holding out...since I'll refuse to go if it's terrible weather. Unless there is free brandy. Is there free brandy?

 

[ExileOnDaytonStreet]

Re: WISCONSIN HOCKEY 09-10 - Climbing The Mountain (7th Edition?)

I'm still holding out...since I'll refuse to go if it's terrible weather. Unless there is free brandy. Is there free brandy?

Depends on the tailgate.

 

[Gurtholfin]

Re: WISCONSIN HOCKEY 09-10 - Climbing The Mountain (7th Edition?)

I'm still holding out...since I'll refuse to go if it's terrible weather. Unless there is free brandy. Is there free brandy?

I haven't committed yet either. I'd already have my tix if we hadn't just done this at Lambeau, but I feel like I've been there done that and it wasn't all that epic even up there in what is a much better stadium.

Sure, it was a great event and I'm glad I went, but it was an event. The game seemed to be going on way over there and I kept finding other things to look at.

Hopefully the weather will be good and if so, I'll grab some tickets outside the stadium before the game.

Speaking of tix, just dropped $321 today on 4 Lion King tickets at the Overture Hall.

So yes, I'm going to the Lion King, but haven't committed to a Badger hockey game at Camp Randall in the city I live in. It's messed up, I know.

 

[FueledByRamen]

Re: WISCONSIN HOCKEY 09-10 - Climbing The Mountain (7th Edition?)

"Your girlfriend's inflatable!" "Your mother's still date-able!" "Our cheers are forgettable!"

I agree. Lame.

"The economy's deflatable!"

 

[blockski]

Re: WISCONSIN HOCKEY 09-10 - Climbing The Mountain (7th Edition?)

"The economy's deflatable!"

Topical, in so many ways.

That's unconstitutional.

At best it is a conservative estimate of what you'd expect for a PP. It would be interesting to see what you would get if you were to normalize the stat to goals per 2:00 of PP time.

A PP percentage also isn't totally horrible as an objective and relative comparison between teams, provided that they have roughly the same number of PP opportunities against similar competition.

Yeah, it's true that the stat applies evenly to all teams and the short PP chances should even out over time.

However, normalizing to 2 minute increments won't do you any good, since the PP stops if you score. In theory, if you score within the first 30 seconds of a PP, should that be the same as scoring just after the penalty expires?

It's not a question with an easy answer.

Ideally, what I'd love to see would be something that tracks overall time and possession not just for the teams, but for all the players on the ice. There's some interesting stuff out there for soccer teams, since both sports deal with flowing games that don't divide nicely into discrete possessions/divisions like football, baseball, or basketball.

Good to see that we're getting the benefits out of the new ticket policy that we expected.

Couldn't agree more with the last statement. We truly did luck out.

On another note:

http://noalibisnoregrets.blogspot.com/2009/11/culvers-camp-randall-hockey-classic.html

Most of the lower bowl is, evidently, sold out. Only tickets in the south end zone remain before they open the upper deck for the Camp Randall game.

You noted on the blog that you were curious how many people the upper deck seats at Camp Randall.

Going off this history of the stadium ( http://www.uwbadgers.com/facilities/camp-randall-history.html ), CR seated 63,710 prior to the addition of the upper deck in the 60s. Afterwards, the capacity was 75,935. Thus, the upper deck's capacity is somewhere in the ballpark of 12,225.

Also, considering that CR's pre-upper deck capacity included an open Field House endzone, it's safe to say that if they've sold out the lower bowl, they've sold out close to 70,000 seats. They did officially remove a couple of the lowest rows of seating in the renovation, but that's a good ballpark number. The capacity of the upper deck hasn't changed significantly.

CR's current (official) capacity is 80,321. There were a few games there during the renovation (before they removed the lowest rows of obstructed view seats) where official capacity was closer to 83,000, so the lower bowl is probably about 68,000 seats.

 

[RedFreak]

Re: WISCONSIN HOCKEY 09-10 - Climbing The Mountain (7th Edition?)

However, normalizing to 2 minute increments won't do you any good, since the PP stops if you score. In theory, if you score within the first 30 seconds of a PP, should that be the same as scoring just after the penalty expires?

It's not a question with an easy answer.

Goals per unit power play time (e.g. goals/min) fixes that. It doesn't fix the goals scored immediately after the PP (I don't consider a power play over until the team clears the zone). But I've got news for Eaves. If there is a strong correlation between goals scored and PP just ending, it means they aren't shooting or applying enough pressure until they feel the urgency of the PP ending. That's fixable through coaching.

 

[blockski]

Re: WISCONSIN HOCKEY 09-10 - Climbing The Mountain (7th Edition?)

Goals per unit power play time (e.g. goals/min) fixes that. It doesn't fix the goals scored immediately after the PP (I don't consider a power play over until the team clears the zone). But I've got news for Eaves. If there is a strong correlation between goals scored and PP just ending, it means they aren't shooting or applying enough pressure until they feel the urgency of the PP ending. That's fixable through coaching.

No, goals/min doesn't fix it because the PP time stops once you score. Hence, the minutes of PP time is not fixed - it is dependent on how successful you are at scoring goals. That's what prevents the whole thing from being an accurate metric.

A PP that scores in 15 seconds is better than one that scores in 1:59, yes? In theory, if that were a major penalty, they could score multiple times in that 2 minutes.

 

[RedFreak]

Re: WISCONSIN HOCKEY 09-10 - Climbing The Mountain (7th Edition?)

A PP that scores in 15 seconds is better than one that scores in 1:59, yes?

1 goal/0.25 min = 4 goals/min

1 goal/2 min = 0.5 goals/min.

So, in answer to your question: Yes.

I thought you were some kind of math guy?

 

[blockski]

Re: WISCONSIN HOCKEY 09-10 - Climbing The Mountain (7th Edition?)

1 goal/0.25 min = 4 goals/min

1 goal/2 min = 0.5 goals/min.

So, in answer to your question: Yes.

I thought you were some kind of math guy?

The point is that you can't infer what would happen in the remainder of the power play because it never happened. So, a team scores in the first 15 seconds - let's say it's a 5 minute major - and doesn't score again. That's either really good or not so great, depending on how you interpret that data.

If you're only going to give a partial credit/demerit to a power play that gets cut off by another penalty, then why would you also give that same partial credit to a PP that scores - also cutting off the remaining penalty time?

 

[RedFreak]

Re: WISCONSIN HOCKEY 09-10 - Climbing The Mountain (7th Edition?)

The point is that you can't infer what would happen in the remainder of the power play because it never happened. So, a team scores in the first 15 seconds - let's say it's a 5 minute major - and doesn't score again. That's either really good or not so great, depending on how you interpret that data.

I'm telling you how I propose to interpret that data.

Team A scores 15 seconds into the major and doesn't score again. That's 1 goal/5 min = 0.2 goals/min.

Team B scores 5 goals in 5 minutes = 1 goal/min.

Team B is better.

If you're only going to give a partial credit/demerit to a power play that gets cut off by another penalty, then why would you also give that same partial credit to a PP that scores - also cutting off the remaining penalty time?

A power play that scores 15 seconds in doesn't get "partial credit", it gets enhanced credit (e.g. 4 goals/min).

A power play that gets cut off after 15 seconds without scoring gets no credit (e.g. 0 goals/min).

Maybe you're not getting the algorithm. You keep a season long running total of i) power play goals scored, and ii) the total running number of seconds the team had a numerical advantage. You divide the two.

This gives you the rate at which a team scores on the power play and really does eliminate the problems cited (except for the scoring which occurs immediately after the PP ends). It's a standard type of analysis.

 

[blockski]

Re: WISCONSIN HOCKEY 09-10 - Climbing The Mountain (7th Edition?)

I'm telling you how I propose to interpret that data.

Team A scores 15 seconds into the major and doesn't score again. That's 1 goal/5 min = 0.2 goals/min.

Team B scores 5 goals in 5 minutes = 1 goal/min.

Team B is better.




A power play that scores 15 seconds in doesn't get "partial credit", it gets enhanced credit (e.g. 4 goals/min).

A power play that gets cut off after 15 seconds without scoring gets no credit (e.g. 0 goals/min).

Maybe you're not getting the algorithm. You keep a season long running total of i) power play goals scored, and ii) the total running number of seconds the team had a numerical advantage. You divide the two.

This gives you the rate at which a team scores on the power play and really does eliminate the problems cited (except for the scoring which occurs immediately after the PP ends). It's a standard type of analysis.

Yes, I'm well aware of rates. I completely understood what you proposed, both before this explanation and after.

I'm still not satisfied that this metric tells me how good a team's PP unit is.

All I'm saying is that our qualitative assessment of how good a team's PP is can't match the quantitative data we have. That's just a limitation of both the data we can collect and the rules of the game. The fact that minor penalties end when a goal is scored is a good, fair punishment for the flow of a game, but it introduces far too much variability into the PP statistic for the 2 minute equivalent or rate (or however you'd want to present that data to the end user) to mean much more than the current percentage.

The problem with any rate calculation is that the time is being altered by the success of the power play.

 

[RedFreak]

Re: WISCONSIN HOCKEY 09-10 - Climbing The Mountain (7th Edition?)

The problem with any rate calculation is that the time is being altered by the success of the power play.

No, it isn't. That's exactly the point.

Now I wouldn't look to this, or any other method, to be indicative of a team's play until after you have several games under your belt. But once you get into the season, this is a much better figure of merit than what's done now.

 

[VarsityWisconsin]

Re: WISCONSIN HOCKEY 09-10 - Climbing The Mountain (7th Edition?)

You'd still have to find a way to factor in when a team scores right after the PP ends and when the 5th player comes back on the ice and isn't a factor in the play.

 

[RedFreak]

Re: WISCONSIN HOCKEY 09-10 - Climbing The Mountain (7th Edition?)

You'd still have to find a way to factor in when a team scores right after the PP ends and when the 5th player comes back on the ice and isn't a factor in the play.

Any method there is going to be subjective and thus entail a discussion of whether the "cure" is worse than the "disease". But my feeling from watching a lot of hockey games is that until the penalized team is able to clear the zone, the attacking team is still at an advantage left over from the just completed PP. So, you could say "continue to calculate the PP-rate until the defenders manage to clear their zone".

 

[uwbadgers14]

Re: WISCONSIN HOCKEY 09-10 - Climbing The Mountain (7th Edition?)

Any method there is going to be subjective and thus entail a discussion of whether the "cure" is worse than the "disease". But my feeling from watching a lot of hockey games is that until the penalized team is able to clear the zone, the attacking team is still at an advantage left over from the just completed PP. So, you could say "continue to calculate the PP-rate until the defenders manage to clear their zone".

I wouldn't go as far to say to continue to calculate the PP- rate until the puck is cleared but at least until the 5th guy gets into the zone and into the play, it goes back to a PP isn't just a man advantage, it can also be a momentum shift as well. Eaves in the press conf. considered his team being 3/8 on the PP saturday with goals coming right after the PP expired...

 

[RedFreak]

Re: WISCONSIN HOCKEY 09-10 - Climbing The Mountain (7th Edition?)

I wouldn't go as far to say to continue to calculate the PP- rate until the puck is cleared but at least until the 5th guy gets into the zone and into the play, it goes back to a PP isn't just a man advantage, it can also be a momentum shift as well. Eaves in the press conf. considered his team being 3/8 on the PP saturday with goals coming right after the PP expired...

Yeah, it's subjective.

But consider this: The 5th guy gets back in the zone but the attacking team continues to pass the puck around for 20 seconds, never relinquishing control, and ultimately scores. Would that goal have occurred if not for the previous PP? Probably not.

 

[blockski]

Re: WISCONSIN HOCKEY 09-10 - Climbing The Mountain (7th Edition?)

No, it isn't. That's exactly the point.

Now I wouldn't look to this, or any other method, to be indicative of a team's play until after you have several games under your belt. But once you get into the season, this is a much better figure of merit than what's done now.

Yes, it is.

The point is that a team scoring in the first 30 seconds of a power play ends the PP - thus we do not know (and cannot know) what would happen in that remaining 1:30. That's the whole problem with it. The rate metric equates a PP that's 30 seconds long because of a goal scored with one that's 30 seconds long because of another penalty.

The value judgment is that I don't think a PP that scores in the first 30 seconds is necessarily better than one that takes 1:30 to score. The reason is that you don't get to use the rest of that time anyway. In a minor penalty, 2 minutes is the most you'll get.

The basic issue is trying to come up with one metric that measures disparate rules for PP's based on the kind of penalty. You've got standard 2 min minors, you've got majors, and you've got truncated PP's due to other penalties.

 

[VarsityWisconsin]

Re: WISCONSIN HOCKEY 09-10 - Climbing The Mountain (7th Edition?)

Not that this really matters, but the Badgers moved up to 9th in the PWR after last week. I'm not sure if we were even in the top 20 at this point last year so it definitely has been a good start.

Is anyone as surprised as me about CC? They're 8th in the PWR and off to a 7-2-1 start. We'll see how they do when their schedule toughens up though.

Rk Team PCWs W-L-T Win % Rk RPI Rk
1 Miami 24 8-1-3 .7917 4t .6410 1
2 Bemidji State 23 8-1-1 .8500 2 .6318 2
3 Quinnipiac 22 8-1-0 .8889 1 .6184* 3
4 Michigan State 21 9-2-1 .7917 4t .6145 4
5 North Dakota 20 7-2-1 .7500 7t .6017* 5
6 Mass.-Lowell 19 7-2-1 .7500 7t .5907 6
7 Massachusetts 18 7-2-0 .7778 6 .5816* 7
8 Colorado College 17 7-2-1 .7500 7t .5776 8
9 Wisconsin 16 6-3-1 .6500 13t .5770 9
10 Denver 15 6-3-1 .6500 13t .5759 10
11 Cornell 14 4-1-0 .8000 3 .5741* 11
12 Alaska 13 7-2-1 .7500 7t .5619* 12
13 Minnesota-Duluth 12 7-4-1 .6250 17t .5599 13
14 Boston College 11 4-3-1 .5625 24 .5533 14
15 Providence 10 6-3-0 .6667 11t .5425 15
16 Ferris State 9 7-3-2 .6667 11t .5423 16
17t Union 7 5-3-3 .5909 21t .5398* 17
17t Nebraska-Omaha 7 5-2-3 .6500 13t .5374* 18
19t St. Cloud State 6 4-4-2 .5000 27t .5336 19
19t Rensselaer 6 7-4-1 .6250 17t .5320* 20
21 Princeton 4 3-2-1 .5833 23 .5262 21
22 Notre Dame 3 5-5-2 .5000 27t .5222 22
23 Merrimack 2 6-4-0 .6000 19t .5220 23
24 Vermont 1 4-4-1 .5000 27t .5193 24
25 Colgate 0 5-2-4 .6364 16 .5190 25

 

[RedFreak]

Re: WISCONSIN HOCKEY 09-10 - Climbing The Mountain (7th Edition?)

The point is that a team scoring in the first 30 seconds of a power play ends the PP - thus we do not know (and cannot know) what would happen in that remaining 1:30.

It doesn't matter because it is only possible to get one goal out of a 2 minute PP. But the method also works for the 5 minute major, as I showed below.

That's the whole problem with it. The rate metric equates a PP that's 30 seconds long because of a goal scored with one that's 30 seconds long because of another penalty.

This is demonstrably wrong because one case gives you 1 goal/30 sec and the other gives you 0 goals/30 sec. How can you say these two produce the same result?

The value judgment is that I don't think a PP that scores in the first 30 seconds is necessarily better than one that takes 1:30 to score.

With respect, you said below it was.

Stop arguing and sleep on it.