Who should South Korea fear Most

[D3Redbird]

After last nights attack on one of there islands, should South Korea fear the North Koreeans? Or us because we will probably do nothing but "Strongly condemn" this action.

 

[JF_Gophers]

Re: Who should South Korea fear Most

We might publicly condemn those actions, but secretly we should be helping them.

 

[unofan]

Re: Who should South Korea fear Most

After last nights attack on one of there islands, should South Korea fear the North Koreeans? Or us because we will probably do nothing but "Strongly condemn" this action.

To put it in terms of the peninsula's national sport, south korea could stomp any zerg rush by North Korea and return the favor without breaking a sweat.

The only thing they have to fear is China getting involved, in which case we would too.

But at least we'd get a remake of MASH out of it.

 

[5mn_Major]

Re: Who should South Korea fear Most

To put it in terms of the peninsula's national sport, south korea could stomp any zerg rush by North Korea and return the favor without breaking a sweat.

The only thing they have to fear is China getting involved, in which case we would too.

But at least we'd get a remake of MASH out of it.

I don't see China sending troops unless there is threat of a serious NK occupation.

From what we know, this is concerning behavior by NK. The US has little leverage as it probably wouldn't take another war on itself. This would be a UN deal...and if NK takes the offense on SK, then it would have tons of support in the UN. Although it doesn't get the resources, this is the type of issue the organization was designed for...


Regardless, it'll be interesting to see what China does do. Supporting NK in its behavior benefits China less and less every day.

 

[French Rage]

Re: Who should South Korea fear Most

East Korea.

 

[jmh]

Re: Who should South Korea fear Most

Supporting NK in its behavior benefits China less and less every day.

<object type="application/x-shockwave-flash" width="425" height="350" data="http://i.adultswim.com/adultswim/video2/tools/swf/viralplayer.swf"><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true" /><param name="movie" value="http://i.adultswim.com/adultswim/video2/tools/swf/viralplayer.swf"/><param name="FlashVars" value="id=8a2505951d8bc25a011d9d9b41680168" /><embed src="http://i.adultswim.com/adultswim/video2/tools/swf/viralplayer.swf" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" FlashVars="id=8a2505951d8bc25a011d9d9b41680168" allowFullScreen="true" width="425" height="350"></embed></object>

 

[bigmrg74]

Re: Who should South Korea fear Most

I don't see China sending troops unless there is threat of a serious NK occupation.

From what we know, this is concerning behavior by NK. The US has little leverage as it probably wouldn't take another war on itself. This would be a UN deal...and if NK takes the offense on SK, then it would have tons of support in the UN. Although it doesn't get the resources, this is the type of issue the organization was designed for...


Regardless, it'll be interesting to see what China does do. Supporting NK in its behavior benefits China less and less every day.

I think China wouldn't really want a shooting war going off right now, with as much success they've been having. There's a few flights and trade routes that would go around the Korean Penninsula, and they wouldn't want to have to run the risk of any of them being taken out. Plus with the new kid all set to take over, I'm sure they would want to explain very clearly to the guy that China ain't going to put up with any Bullpucky from North Korea that would mess up trade in the Pacific Rim. It would help NK to think of China as Bruce Banner, they're not going to like China when its angry.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Who should South Korea fear Most

I think China wouldn't really want a shooting war going off right now, with as much success they've been having. There's a few flights and trade routes that would go around the Korean Penninsula, and they wouldn't want to have to run the risk of any of them being taken out. Plus with the new kid all set to take over, I'm sure they would want to explain very clearly to the guy that China ain't going to put up with any Bullpucky from North Korea that would mess up trade in the Pacific Rim. It would help NK to think of China as Bruce Banner, they're not going to like China when its angry.

NK is very convenient for China, since it's helping us bankrupt ourselves with no risk to Beijing. Them intervening would be as geopolitically self-defeating as, say, us taking out Iran's regional rival. It doesn't take Metternich to pass on that.

 

[pirate]

Re: Who should South Korea fear Most

The Reaper?

 

[FadeToBlack&Gold]

Re: Who should South Korea fear Most

Dirty?

 

[Kepler]

Re: Who should South Korea fear Most

pirate wins the thread, dammit.

 

[5mn_Major]

Re: Who should South Korea fear Most

NK is very convenient for China, since it's helping us bankrupt ourselves with no risk to Beijing. Them intervening would be as geopolitically self-defeating as, say, us taking out Iran's regional rival. It doesn't take Metternich to pass on that.

Could be. Its kinda like raising airport security to include patdowns...so as to weaken the push to further censor media. Although in the case of China, I'm not sure of your outcome.

China is selling products around the world...esp in the US. Public opinion is strong in capitalism...and bad enough behavior by NK and enough ambivalence by China, could result in a international consumer backlash that would not be in China's best interest.

 

[Bob Gray]

Re: Who should South Korea fear Most

To put it in terms of the peninsula's national sport, south korea could stomp any zerg rush by North Korea and return the favor without breaking a sweat.

The only thing they have to fear is China getting involved, in which case we would too.

But at least we'd get a remake of MASH out of it.

Without breaking a sweat? What North Korea are you speaking of? There's all sorts of information out there on the massive capabilities of North Korea to hit South Korea and possibly take much or all of South Korea before we could do much about it. Now, North Korea doesn't have a lot of staying power militarily, but for a short period of time they could be real trouble for the South. People forget this isn't an enormous area we're dealing with. Seoul is only 35 miles from the DMZ. If North Korea ever unleashed it's military capabilities, Seoul would be in a world of hurt very quickly.

 

[Tundra]

Re: Who should South Korea fear Most

Lets hope we don't get dragged into another war. Korean war 50-53 over 3million civilian deaths... 2million soldiers KIA/WIA on both sides.

I wonder how many civilians has died in Iraq/Afghanistan "war" and how many combatants are KIA/WIA in the 7year+ conflict.

Communism was acting in Korea, just as Hitler, Mussolini and the Japanese had ten, fifteen, and twenty years earlier. I felt certain that if South Korea was allowed to fall Communist leaders would be emboldened to override nations closer to our own shores

 

[Timothy A]

Re: Who should South Korea fear Most

S Korea should fear Kim's kid for sure. NK has nothing to lose. Their people are starving, they lack technology and resources. It makes perfect sense for them to try and take over SK and gain all their resources. And they'd be smart to so it now while the US is still in Iraq and Afganistan. The US militry is already crying they can't fight on 2 fronts and the US public doesn't have the intestinal fortitude to fight a real conventional war with hundreds of US troops dying a month. And over what? IMHO, we should just get out of SK all together before we get dragged into yet another military quagmire. If NK takes over SK, what's the big deal? No more Kia's and Hyundai's? Our national security will not be compromised to a devastating level if we leave. We can still nuke them from the safety of our own country if we have to.

 

[Old Pio]

Re: Who should South Korea fear Most

Lets hope we don't get dragged into another war. Korean war 50-53 over 3million civilian deaths... 2million soldiers KIA/WIA on both sides.

I wonder how many civilians has died in Iraq/Afghanistan "war" and how many combatants are KIA/WIA in the 7year+ conflict.

Interesting, the metric you look to first is civilian deaths followed by combined KIA/MIA numbers, out of which you fail to break out American casualties.

 

[Kepler]

Re: Who should South Korea fear Most

Without breaking a sweat? What North Korea are you speaking of? There's all sorts of information out there on the massive capabilities of North Korea to hit South Korea and possibly take much or all of South Korea before we could do much about it. Now, North Korea doesn't have a lot of staying power militarily, but for a short period of time they could be real trouble for the South. People forget this isn't an enormous area we're dealing with. Seoul is only 35 miles from the DMZ. If North Korea ever unleashed it's military capabilities, Seoul would be in a world of hurt very quickly.

NK could inflict massive damage to SK. It would be a suicidal attack, but they could do it.

The usefulness of NK to the PRC ends the moment it launches anything like a conventional attack, so although the Chinese aren't going to intervene for regime change, they should sidle up to the NK ambassador and say, "pssst... we don't have your back."

There was an interesting conference a few years ago sponsored by somebody like CFR that had as an exercise, is there any scenario where you can see a major power using battlefield nuclear weapons? A mass invasion of SK by the NK directed at Seoul was the only one anybody came up with that was remotely plausible -- tactical bombing of NK facilities including deployment against NK's "waves in waiting" -- and even that one was roundly voted down as being both unlikely and A Bad Idea (way too close to Chinese soil; imagine if the Russians nuked Honduras).

For that matter, you have to ask yourself how the NK regime stays in power. The military only plays the regime's game for as long as their position is strong -- potential energy. The moment the Kims tell the brass to become kinetic, it's easily imaginable that a quick meeting of their general staff would come up with the idea of butchering a few thousand courtiers to save hundreds of thousands of troops (and their own status).

 

[Bob Gray]

Re: Who should South Korea fear Most

NK could inflict massive damage to SK. It would be a suicidal attack, but they could do it.

The usefulness of NK to the PRC ends the moment it launches anything like a conventional attack, so although the Chinese aren't going to intervene for regime change, they should sidle up to the NK ambassador and say, "pssst... we don't have your back."

I think that probably happens every so often when NK gets a bit ornery. And it's likely what's happening in this situation. But, there's always a chance that things get out of control and NK goes off before cooler heads, like China, can help keep things from boiling over. China does an interesting balancing act in how it deals with NK.

 

[Old Pio]

Re: Who should South Korea fear Most

NK could inflict massive damage to SK. It would be a suicidal attack, but they could do it.

The usefulness of NK to the PRC ends the moment it launches anything like a conventional attack, so although the Chinese aren't going to intervene for regime change, they should sidle up to the NK ambassador and say, "pssst... we don't have your back."

There was an interesting conference a few years ago sponsored by somebody like CFR that had as an exercise, is there any scenario where you can see a major power using battlefield nuclear weapons? A mass invasion of SK by the NK directed at Seoul was the only one anybody came up with that was remotely plausible -- tactical bombing of NK facilities including deployment against NK's "waves in waiting" -- and even that one was roundly voted down as being both unlikely and A Bad Idea (way too close to Chinese soil; imagine if the Russians nuked Honduras).

For that matter, you have to ask yourself how the NK regime stays in power. The military only plays the regime's game for as long as their position is strong -- potential energy. The moment the Kims tell the brass to become kinetic, it's easily imaginable that a quick meeting of their general staff would come up with the idea of butchering a few thousand courtiers to save hundreds of thousands of troops (and their own status).

Another scenario for a massive retaliation would be DPRK's release of a nuke, anywhere. Honestly, I can't imagine them actually doing it, because they'd be committing national suicide. But with this bunch, anything seems possible. That program of theirs to kidnap people from other countries (Japanese mainly, IIRC) is beyond creepy. Sort of like Dr. Mengele's experiments injecting blue dye into the eyes of Jewish kids. What is that purpose of THAT? You can learn quite a bit about the Japanese with a Fodor's travel guide. Or just buy a couple of tickets and rent an apartment in Shinjuku.

But your point about the military may be dead on. As a rule, generals aren't quite as enthusiastic about military adventurism as their "civilian" masters are. It is the generals who risk losing power and face and position, not to mention perks. Remember, even though the DPRK military presumably eats at the head of the table, they've had to amend the physical requirements for recruits: lowering the minimum height and weight requirements because of the impact of food shortages. So what is it that keeps them loyal to the Kims? And what can we do to get them to do a little house cleaning?

 

[Chickens@NU]

Re: Who should South Korea fear Most

After last nights attack on one of there islands, should South Korea fear the North Koreeans? Or us because we will probably do nothing but "Strongly condemn" this action.

GODZILLA!!!!!!

(Oh wait a minute. That's Japan. Sorry)