Which teams advance to the Frozen Four in Minneapolis?

[Blackbeard]

Re: Which teams advance to the Frozen Four in Minneapolis?

Here's the comprehensive BCI tournament preview, courtesy of everyone's favorite USCHO poster:

http://www.bcinterruption.com/bosto...-clarkson-frozen-four-ncaa-tournament-preview

Good article.

But, Cornell 4 - UM 1 (ENG) HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA! (with no lack of respect to Cornell).

There are some things about UM that you don't yet get.

Like the serious depth (as in deep depth) that wears teams down by the third period if they were otherwise able to keep the game close until then. Seen it happen to UMD this year and to others. Make a mistake and they can score in bunches like UMD used to do a few years ago.

Are they beatable? Sure, just as any team is on any given night. And their record might possibly create a reversed pressure on them at the same time that it is creating a direct one on their opponents. But your storyline (score and ENG) is laughable.

But, we'll only know if the match up occurs.

 

[Eeyore]

Re: Which teams advance to the Frozen Four in Minneapolis?

Amanda Kessel took regular shifts in both games this past weekend and looked healthier than she has in a while despite picking up just one assist on the weekend.

 

[OnMAA]

Re: Which teams advance to the Frozen Four in Minneapolis?

Good article.

But, Cornell 4 - UM 1 (ENG) HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA! (with no lack of respect to Cornell).

There are some things about UM that you don't yet get.

Like the serious depth (as in deep depth) that wears teams down by the third period if they were otherwise able to keep the game close until then. Seen it happen to UMD this year and to others. Make a mistake and they can score in bunches like UMD used to do a few years ago.

Are they beatable? Sure, just as any team is on any given night. And their record might possibly create a reversed pressure on them at the same time that it is creating a direct one on their opponents. But your storyline (score and ENG) is laughable.

But, we'll only know if the match up occurs.

Right now 75% of the prognosticators have Cornell and Minny winning their semi's.
(33% top seed pickers, 21% each have either BU or BC lose)
Interesting that 42% see one of the Beantown home teams lose, split equally between Harvard over BC and Clarkson over BU.

 

[ARM]

Re: Which teams advance to the Frozen Four in Minneapolis?

Here's the comprehensive BCI tournament preview, courtesy of everyone's favorite USCHO poster:

http://www.bcinterruption.com/bosto...-clarkson-frozen-four-ncaa-tournament-preview

It's Monique Lamoureux (no longer hyphenated.)

 

[TonyTheTiger20]

Re: Which teams advance to the Frozen Four in Minneapolis?

I can't quite get the "really poor record" comment on Harvard's second half. So the team went 2-5 against NCAA qualifying teams, and tied two decent teams (Dartmouth & SLU), and then beat everyone it should. (And Harvard was just 1-1 against NCAA qualifying teams in the first half.) BC meanwhile went 3-1 against NCAA qualifying teams in the second half, lost two games against a decent Northeastern team, and tied an awful Vermont team, which is better but not really leaps and bounds better. It's certainly not a Frozen Four favorite performance for Harvard, and it's mediocre judged by that standard, but I wouldn't call it really poor.

Well that's kind of what I meant -- it's not poor from the average team's point of view but poor from a top 8 team's point of view.

And no, BC's hasn't been much better at all. Both teams have had sub-par finishes to the season.

Good article.

But, Cornell 4 - UM 1 (ENG) HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA! (with no lack of respect to Cornell).

There are some things about UM that you don't yet get.

Like the serious depth (as in deep depth) that wears teams down by the third period if they were otherwise able to keep the game close until then. Seen it happen to UMD this year and to others. Make a mistake and they can score in bunches like UMD used to do a few years ago.

Are they beatable? Sure, just as any team is on any given night. And their record might possibly create a reversed pressure on them at the same time that it is creating a direct one on their opponents. But your storyline (score and ENG) is laughable.

I get all that. I know they're good. I'm not saying they aren't.

What's laughable about Cornell getting up by 2 goals? That's not farfetched at all... Cornell carries a slim lead most of the game (which has happened in some Minnesota games against lesser teams), but then manages to score the insurance goal mid-third, perhaps against the run of play. And then considering a team will have an empty net longer when down by 2, it's not unreasonable to think an ENG would go in.

4-1 looks like a much bigger blowout than it really is. If I had said "3-1, and then an empty netter tacked on" would you have thought it as laughable?

In any case -- I do not think that Cornell is a better team. It's an upset pick.

Amanda Kessel took regular shifts in both games this past weekend and looked healthier than she has in a while despite picking up just one assist on the weekend.

Thanks, I figured she would probably start getting more shifts once the big games started to come up.

It's Monique Lamoureux (no longer hyphenated.)

And thank you as well.

 

[mnpokecheck]

Re: Which teams advance to the Frozen Four in Minneapolis?

NCAA Championship: No. 2 Cornell vs. No. 1 Minnesota: If this is indeed the national final, it is a must-watch, folks. The undefeated Golden Gophers versus a very, very good Cornell team that I predicted would take the title last season. What this game comes down to is Can A Top Team Beat Minnesota? I am a firm believer that they can, and will.

Minnesota's season has been eerily similar to to the Patriots 18-1 season, in which their wins toward the end of the year started to become less and less convincing. The Gophers took the WCHA title last week against North Dakota just 2-0. UND only trailed in shots 34-30. Minnesota needed overtime to dispatch one of the worst teams in the country, 6-26-2 Bemidji State, just a couple short weeks ago.

Yes, this is all shaping up to be one hell of an easy upset pick for me. I've seen this coming, as though it were a vision, for weeks now. It's just too tempting. Cornell wins, 4-1 (ENG), and brings the NCAA championship to the east for the very first time.

As always TTT, thanks for a good chuckle.

So you see a Cornell win over Minnesota in a game in front of a partisan crowd in Ridder Arena that would cement a Minnesota legacy - must be the last four dominating one goal wins by Cornell in the ECAC Tourney (two goal with EN vs SLU) vs Minnesota's last six wins by shutout (25-0 cumulative). And of course not to cherry pick, but two of those recent Minnesota wins were over Bemidji (8-0 with 8 different scorers and 5-0) so yes I see how that is not very convincing. And certainly nothing convincing about a shutout over North Dakota's (a TUC) dynamic offense on the 5th time you've played them this season. So I see your points - good call.

Certainly Minnesota can be beat......though it seems Brad Frost and his team have managed this special session very well. So, I don't expect to see the Gophers suddenly fall flat on both offense and defense at this point in the season. For Cornell to win, I think they would likely need a higher scoring 5-4 type of game...and defensively I don't see Minnesota giving up 5 goals.

 

[Blackbeard]

Re: Which teams advance to the Frozen Four in Minneapolis?

If I had said "3-1, and then an empty netter tacked on" would you have thought it as laughable? In any case -- I do not think that Cornell is a better team. It's an upset pick.

Yes, I would have.

And I understand that you don't think Cornell is a better team.

Now you've got me contemplating this match up in the final.

 

[TonyTheTiger20]

Re: Which teams advance to the Frozen Four in Minneapolis?

I enjoy the dialogue here.

Just calling it like I see it as an outsider.

 

[DC78-82]

Re: Which teams advance to the Frozen Four in Minneapolis?

Who's coming to Minneapolis if their team advances? Or regardless?

Regardless!

 

[Eeyore]

Re: Which teams advance to the Frozen Four in Minneapolis?

Who's coming to Minneapolis if their team advances? Or regardless?

I'll be making the long drive down from Nordeast no matter who is playing.

 

[pgb-ohio]

Re: Which teams advance to the Frozen Four in Minneapolis?

That's a long, arduous trip. If you need to stop for a meal along the way, I recommend Jax Cafe.

 

[Eeyore]

Re: Which teams advance to the Frozen Four in Minneapolis?

That's a long, arduous trip. If you need to stop for a meal along the way, I recommend Jax Cafe.

Jax is almost 180 degrees the wrong direction and about twice as far from Ridder as my house. I'm pretty much without rest stop options until I make it to Dinkytown.

 

[dave1381]

Re: Which teams advance to the Frozen Four in Minneapolis?

Well that's kind of what I meant -- it's not poor from the average team's point of view but poor from a top 8 team's point of view.

And no, BC's hasn't been much better at all. Both teams have had sub-par finishes to the season.

Well you're taking the view that both teams are capable of being the #2 team in the country and then slipped. I can buy that for BC, but not Harvard. Harvard is what it is, a team capable of playing the #2-#4 teams within a goal and winning 1 out of 3 times, which is about what you'd expect from the 5th or 6th best team in the country. (The ratings seem to give Harvard better chances, because Harvard is better at avoiding bad losses.) And I'll take that -- it's a big improvement from when Harvard couldn't beat any of these teams from 2010 until this fall.

So I'd say BC was subpar and Harvard was par, but Harvard's par is below BC's par.

 

[ARM]

Re: Which teams advance to the Frozen Four in Minneapolis?

So I'd say BC was subpar and Harvard was par, but Harvard's par is below BC's par.

I think there is a T-shirt-worthy slogan in there somewhere: "Our subpar beats your par!" and the back, in small font, could read, "I hope ..."

 

[OnMAA]

Re: Which teams advance to the Frozen Four in Minneapolis?

As always TTT, thanks for a good chuckle.

For sure. Some one liners in this article are vintage TTT....Good for a smile, chuckle or laugh.

"You'd feel like calling shenanigans were Minnesota not a ridiculous 38-0-0"

" 8-5-2 a really poor record given the relative lack of parity in women's hockey this season"...
......editors note: There is more parity now than there has ever been.

"BC managed to take itself out of the race for the Hockey East regular season title with an embarrassing tie"

"despite BC's worst game of the year last week against Northeastern, the Eagles have the horses to take this game"....
......editors note: One commenter said "Note to Author: Women don’t appreciate being called horses."

"an incredible performance featuring a number of those 'throw-your-hands-up-in-defeat-to-the-hockey-gods' kind of saves"

"Cornell, on the other hand, plays in the strong ECAC, featuring six teams above .500"
......editors note: That is exactly 50% of the league above 500 "

"Perhaps I'm basing this on what I saw with my own eyes too much, but Cornell is an incredibly good team... Just an incredibly tough and physical -- but clean -- team."......Giving some love to MattJ.

"Junior Marie-Philip Poulin, formerly the 'one woman show' down the street as the only significant threat the Terriers had the last couple years, has remained strong. Poulin isn't as scary as she used to be"

"Prediction: Boston University wins, 4-2."......
......editors note: TTT Picks BU...TTT picks BU.....TTT picks BU"

"Minnesota... there isn't too much you can say about them other than the fact that they are the only team ever to make it to the national tournament undefeated."
......................and then goes on to say..........................
"The Gophers feature a bevy of top-end talent, a few of which are likely the best players in the history of the game........ leading what might be the best women's hockey team ever assembled."

"The undefeated Golden Gophers versus a very, very good Cornell team that I predicted would take the title last season."

"Yes, this is all shaping up to be one hell of an easy upset pick for me. I've seen this coming, as though it were a vision, for weeks now."


Having said all that, enjoyed reading the article, good job TTT and really like the title....
"#4 Boston College goes for its first title, but 38-0-0 Minnesota stands in everyone's way."


By the way, you wanna hear a hysterical laugh....Look at this clip...

https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?v=120014751518860

 

[pgb-ohio]

Re: Which teams advance to the Frozen Four in Minneapolis?

Jax is almost 180 degrees the wrong direction and about twice as far from Ridder as my house. I'm pretty much without rest stop options until I make it to Dinkytown.

No points for knowing about Jax Cafe, eh? OK, I can accept that.

But demerits for not knowing where your house is? Good lord that's harsh -- even for someone named Eeyore!

 

[TonyTheTiger20]

Re: Which teams advance to the Frozen Four in Minneapolis?

Well you're taking the view that both teams are capable of being the #2 team in the country and then slipped. I can buy that for BC, but not Harvard. Harvard is what it is, a team capable of playing the #2-#4 teams within a goal and winning 1 out of 3 times, which is about what you'd expect from the 5th or 6th best team in the country. (The ratings seem to give Harvard better chances, because Harvard is better at avoiding bad losses.) And I'll take that -- it's a big improvement from when Harvard couldn't beat any of these teams from 2010 until this fall.

I... have no problem with this assessment, really.

" 8-5-2 a really poor record given the relative lack of parity in women's hockey this season"...
......editors note: There is more parity now than there has ever been.

There is more talent than there has ever been, but the best and the worst are seemingly separated by a gaping chasm this year, which hadn't been the case the last 2-3 years or so.

"despite BC's worst game of the year last week against Northeastern, the Eagles have the horses to take this game"....
......editors note: One commenter said "Note to Author: Women don’t appreciate being called horses."

Heh... yes, I noticed that. Figure of speech

"Cornell, on the other hand, plays in the strong ECAC, featuring six teams above .500"
......editors note: That is exactly 50% of the league above 500 "

Tied with the WCHA for highest percent of the conference

"Prediction: Boston University wins, 4-2."......
......editors note: TTT Picks BU...TTT picks BU.....TTT picks BU"

STOP IT I FEEL DIRTY ENOUGH ALREADY

"Minnesota... there isn't too much you can say about them other than the fact that they are the only team ever to make it to the national tournament undefeated."
......................and then goes on to say..........................
"The Gophers feature a bevy of top-end talent, a few of which are likely the best players in the history of the game........ leading what might be the best women's hockey team ever assembled."

Well I didn't say "there is 'nothing' you can say"! haha

"The undefeated Golden Gophers versus a very, very good Cornell team that I predicted would take the title last season."

"Yes, this is all shaping up to be one hell of an easy upset pick for me. I've seen this coming, as though it were a vision, for weeks now."

My visions have not been all that accurate lately, so I'll say that.

Having said all that, enjoyed reading the article, good job TTT and really like the title....
"#4 Boston College goes for its first title, but 38-0-0 Minnesota stands in everyone's way."

Many thanks

 

[ARM]

Re: Which teams advance to the Frozen Four in Minneapolis?

Heh... yes, I noticed that. Figure of speech

I use that expression too and never think anything of it. I see it as similar to talking about a sports car and how many horses you have under the hood; if you don't have enough power, you don't have the horses. It isn't quite like saying, "She's a big horse." Although Minnesota's had a player a decade ago whose teammates called her "The Big Horse," and she didn't mind, not that I've have necessarily used that to refer to her.

 

[D2D]

Re: Which teams advance to the Frozen Four in Minneapolis?

I use that expression too and never think anything of it. I see it as similar to talking about a sports car and how many horses you have under the hood; if you don't have enough power, you don't have the horses. It isn't quite like saying, "She's a big horse." Although Minnesota's had a player a decade ago whose teammates called her "The Big Horse," and she didn't mind, not that I've have necessarily used that to refer to her.

And then there's the Stillwater Ponies...

 

[Back2BackU-MnPride2002]

Re: Which teams advance to the Frozen Four in Minneapolis?

TTT --


The article sees to try to make an effort of pointing out that Minnesota only played one tournament team during their entire season, and the worst rated tournament team no less.


And I'm not sure or not, I won't assume you aren't aware of "other" ratings out there, that rate women's college hockey teams? Because underestimating just how truly good Minnesota is because they "supposedly" never played any teams better than 8th in the country before the tournament, could be a mistake.

If you bet against the Gophers, I sure hope you are getting some good odds.



Just in case you are not aware. Here is how a few other ratings have Minnesota's competition this season rated.


Massey Ratings has UMns opponents UND rated #2, Wisconsin #4, UMD #11, OSU #12, St Law #13, UNH #18, MnSt #19, BSU #20, SCSU #21 & Colg #25

KRACH Ratings has UMns opponents UND rated #5, Wisconsin #7, UMD #12, OSU #11, St Law #13, UNH #18, MnSt #19, BSU #26, SCSU #22 & Colg #25.


So, Massey's Rating has UMn with a 5-0 record vs the 2nd best team in the country. And has UMn with a 9-0 record vs the Top 4 teams in the country.

The KRACH Ratings are not that much different, giving a little less strength to UND and Wisconsin, but otherwise pretty close.


Minnesota did not play a single game vs a team rated outside of the Top 25 according to Massey's Ratings and only 2 games vs teams ranked lower than 21st. I realize that with only 36 teams, even 21st isn't that good, but still there were quite a few teams worse than Bemidji St, despite what you said about Bemidji St in your article. 15 worse rated teams? That's over 40% of the teams in women's college hockey were worse than BSU. They played tight with Maine and split with Providence, got 3 pts in a weekend vs Wisconsin.

If you only look at regulation, BSU went 3-3-3 in their last 9 games leading up to playing Minnesota in the WCHA playoffs. But they lost all 3 of their OT games.





You seemed to highlight how close UND kept the WCHA Title game, and how close UMn came to losing to BSU, but those were 2 games out of 38. They were conf rivals who the Gophers just pounded silly in all of their other games in BSU's case, and who they won handily against in UND's case.

And going 5-0 vs a team that got a split with Clarkson is a pretty good sign.



And since all 6 of the eastern teams who have a chance to move on and play the Gophers if they beat UND, are new opponents, how did UMn do against eastern teams?


Colgate was #25 in both ratings, and UMn beat them by a total score of, 18-0.
N Hamp was #18 in both ratings, and UMn beat them by a total score of, 14-2.
St Law was #13 in both ratings, and UMn beat them by a total score of, 11-0.

So yes, as would be expected, the better the competition, the less of a pounding the Gophers gave them.


Cornell also gave Colgate a pounding early in the season, 18-2. So other than letting them score on them, it could be considered a wash?

But the same TIGHTENING UP that you pointed out was happening to the Gophers, not winning by such large margins, happened just the same to Cornell as all they could muster against this admitted creampuff, is two 1 pt wins. From 18-2, to 8-6??? And don't worry, not busting your chops too much, I understand you are trying to figure out a reason to come to believe that the Gophers can be beat. And they can, but pointing out that they are suffering from the same tightening up effect that Cornell is also suffering from, proves nothing. Maybe it could be argued that Cornell is far more beatable now than they were earlier?! That seems to be what you are trying to convince yourself of? But I don't know about Cornell so much, but while Minnesota is supposedly tightening up, you have noticed that a lot of that has to do with not having been scored upon for 6 games straight, right?! Teams when then have a 2-0 or 3-0 lead going into a 3rd period, may sometimes play more defense than offense. And unlike in football, in hockey that can be a very effective strategy.


And another example involving Cornell is with St Lawrence, beating them in 3 games by a total of 15-3, isn't too far off from the Gophers 11-0 drubbing.

But in Cornell's latest matchup with St Lawrence, they only won by 2 goals.



So, what we have here are two teams that both can put a beat down on a creampuff opponent. But Minnesota, unlike Cornell, hasn't lost to anyone. And so we have to wonder, is the PWR a more accurate judge of the quality of a team, or the KRACH or the Massey Rating?

No matter which one you look at, it seems like Cornell plays pretty even up with the other eastern teams heading to the Dance. Which still means they are very good.

If we look only at the KRACH and Massey Ratings, Minnesota has shown its far superior to at least 2 Top 5-7 quality teams, but just one if looking at the PWR.

But if you couldn't guess, I do not think that the PWR is the best of those 3 rating services, and not the 2nd best, either. I don't think too many people would disagree with that. I'm not so much of a homer though to argue that the Massey is better than the KRACH, for I'm not really sure which is better? I do still wish we could have traded in our 2 game series with Colgate with one of the other Eastern teams in the Top 7, so that we could have a better idea of how close those eastern teams are to Minnesota. But it didn't happen that way, so water under the bridge.

I am not sure how the KRACH has done, but the Massey Rating has correctly predicted the eventual winner 8 of the last 10 years. Most of its incorrect predictions were from the early years and the one time they predicted an eastern team to win it recently. And yes, it has UMn winning this year.




Well, honestly I don't know if I was even trying to make a point there, other than that UND and UW were probably tougher opponents than you may think, and maybe I just wanted to look over the situation myself and see how things looked. In games vs Common opponents, Cornell did look almost as impressive as UMn, so I'll give them that. Both teams have tightened up late in the season, which is natural, but both won all or enough of their games vs tough opponents. I'd say it should make for a great matchup, with the 2 things I think will sway things Minnesota's way, being their incredible depth and their Goaltender.

And I feel kind of stupid even thinking about a possible matchup with Cornell, but thankfully I know that the Brad Frost and his players ARE NOT thinking of anyone but UND right now.