ARM
Fan of chipmunk-like mascots.
I think this was the first year I've ever been able to get this completed before anyone posted, "Where's the pole?"
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Which four D-I teams advance to the Frozen Four at Quinnipiac?
- Thread starter ARM
- Start date
Re: Which four D-I teams advance to the Frozen Four at Quinnipiac?
Hard to say that MN's odds are quite that high. I'd also give UW a chance more in line with eastern schools (Cornell, Clarkson, etc): MN has one more opportunity at an L before they would play an eastern school not named BU...and the game is out east giving a hair of an advantage to eastern schools.
Hard to say that MN's odds are quite that high. I'd also give UW a chance more in line with eastern schools (Cornell, Clarkson, etc): MN has one more opportunity at an L before they would play an eastern school not named BU...and the game is out east giving a hair of an advantage to eastern schools.
Re: Which four D-I teams advance to the Frozen Four at Quinnipiac?
I'd agree that Minnesota's chances aren't quite that high but for a different reason: I'm pretty sure they've overachieved. Not necessarily by much, but at least a little. No one's true talent level is a 36-1-1 record and my guess is that if you played this season out 10,000 times you'd find that the Gophers averaged 3-5 losses. So in that sense, KRACH probably overstates how good they actually are. I really don't know by how much but pulling a number out of my *** I'd probably give BU more like a 10% chance to win on Saturday.
I'd agree that Minnesota's chances aren't quite that high but for a different reason: I'm pretty sure they've overachieved. Not necessarily by much, but at least a little. No one's true talent level is a 36-1-1 record and my guess is that if you played this season out 10,000 times you'd find that the Gophers averaged 3-5 losses. So in that sense, KRACH probably overstates how good they actually are. I really don't know by how much but pulling a number out of my *** I'd probably give BU more like a 10% chance to win on Saturday.
TonyTheTiger20
#SOAR
Wow I do not agree with this.
northhockey
New member
Re: Which four D-I teams advance to the Frozen Four at Quinnipiac?
I hope Eeyore is joking
I hope Eeyore is joking
FiveHoleFrenzy
Well-known member
Re: Which four D-I teams advance to the Frozen Four at Quinnipiac?
10,000 seasons of hockey...Cheese and rice, I'm having trouble wrapping my mind around that. I'm kind of thinking the Gophers slightly UNDERACHIEVED this year by losing once and tying once.
Wait...maybe Eeyore is sandbagging?
10,000 seasons of hockey...Cheese and rice, I'm having trouble wrapping my mind around that. I'm kind of thinking the Gophers slightly UNDERACHIEVED this year by losing once and tying once.
Wait...maybe Eeyore is sandbagging?
Re: Which four D-I teams advance to the Frozen Four at Quinnipiac?
I'm not joking. For one thing, Minnesota has been remarkably injury free this year. We've had a few players miss a game here or there but from the top three lines Meghan Lorence is the only player who has played fewer than 36 games (and even she played 32) and Maryanne Menefee is the only other top 9 forward to miss any time at all. The top four defensemen have missed a total of three games (McMillen 2 and Wolfe 1). That level of health is nothing short of fluky and you couldn't expect that to repeat.
The schedule bounced our way, too. Our series in Grand Forks came with the UND Olympians off in Sochi. Lara Stalder missed our second series with UMD. And breaking in a young defense we were fortunate not to play any top scoring teams early on while they got themselves sorted out. (I know Wisconsin scored the second most goals in the WCHA this season but they just never looked like a particularly good offensive team to me.)
In the past I've taken a stab at making a crude estimate of the Pythagenport exponent (used to calculate a team's expected winning percentage based upon goals scored relative to goals allowed) and it pretty clearly seems to be less than 2 for NCAA Division 1 women's hockey. So they probably performed about a game to a game and a half better than one would expect based on that.
And there were games where they got the bounces. The first game against Wisconsin could very easily have gone differently; Leveille saved us in the second period and even so we relied upon a fair amount of luck to keep them from scoring. Lose that game and the season could have a very different complexion. The second game in St. Cloud was stirring and all but they really shouldn't have won it.
As I said, pretty much no one ever has a true talent level that leads to a 36-1-1 record (to say nothing of 41-0-0). To do that, you need to be the best team and to catch some breaks along the way.
I'm not joking. For one thing, Minnesota has been remarkably injury free this year. We've had a few players miss a game here or there but from the top three lines Meghan Lorence is the only player who has played fewer than 36 games (and even she played 32) and Maryanne Menefee is the only other top 9 forward to miss any time at all. The top four defensemen have missed a total of three games (McMillen 2 and Wolfe 1). That level of health is nothing short of fluky and you couldn't expect that to repeat.
The schedule bounced our way, too. Our series in Grand Forks came with the UND Olympians off in Sochi. Lara Stalder missed our second series with UMD. And breaking in a young defense we were fortunate not to play any top scoring teams early on while they got themselves sorted out. (I know Wisconsin scored the second most goals in the WCHA this season but they just never looked like a particularly good offensive team to me.)
In the past I've taken a stab at making a crude estimate of the Pythagenport exponent (used to calculate a team's expected winning percentage based upon goals scored relative to goals allowed) and it pretty clearly seems to be less than 2 for NCAA Division 1 women's hockey. So they probably performed about a game to a game and a half better than one would expect based on that.
And there were games where they got the bounces. The first game against Wisconsin could very easily have gone differently; Leveille saved us in the second period and even so we relied upon a fair amount of luck to keep them from scoring. Lose that game and the season could have a very different complexion. The second game in St. Cloud was stirring and all but they really shouldn't have won it.
As I said, pretty much no one ever has a true talent level that leads to a 36-1-1 record (to say nothing of 41-0-0). To do that, you need to be the best team and to catch some breaks along the way.
northhockey
New member
Re: Which four D-I teams advance to the Frozen Four at Quinnipiac?
Your insane! It doesn't matter about the what if's. Minnesota has lost how many times in the last two seasons? Thats not a lucky schedule (check SOS), or lucky absences of opposing players (Amanda Kessel), or injury luck. It's being DOMINANT in NCAA Women's Hockey. Oh, did I mention I'm a UND diehard?...
Your insane! It doesn't matter about the what if's. Minnesota has lost how many times in the last two seasons? Thats not a lucky schedule (check SOS), or lucky absences of opposing players (Amanda Kessel), or injury luck. It's being DOMINANT in NCAA Women's Hockey. Oh, did I mention I'm a UND diehard?...
Re: Which four D-I teams advance to the Frozen Four at Quinnipiac?
I'd agree with Eeyore to some extent. When you're good, you are lucky. It takes both to accomplish what they have the past two seasons. That doesn't take away from their skill or dominance. It's just acknowledging that no amount of skill or prep can take care of every puck bounce or rebound. There's a certain percentage of the game that is out of either team's control and you have to hope the math/science is in your favor.
I'd also agree that Minnesota has looked more fallible this season. There was an inevitability to that unbeaten season. The steamroller continued to pick up steam and it didn't feel like any team was really in a game against them very long. This season, it wasn't just NoDak or Wisco that gave them a scare. Maybe its just because the unbeaten myth had been slayed, but this team doesn't have that aura.
I'd agree with Eeyore to some extent. When you're good, you are lucky. It takes both to accomplish what they have the past two seasons. That doesn't take away from their skill or dominance. It's just acknowledging that no amount of skill or prep can take care of every puck bounce or rebound. There's a certain percentage of the game that is out of either team's control and you have to hope the math/science is in your favor.
I'd also agree that Minnesota has looked more fallible this season. There was an inevitability to that unbeaten season. The steamroller continued to pick up steam and it didn't feel like any team was really in a game against them very long. This season, it wasn't just NoDak or Wisco that gave them a scare. Maybe its just because the unbeaten myth had been slayed, but this team doesn't have that aura.
ARM
Fan of chipmunk-like mascots.
They were not particularly injury free around the time of the near miss at St. Cloud and the loss to North Dakota. They had someone missing from each of what had been the forward lines in previous weeks for SCSU in Lorence, Menefee, and Schipper. They had people back in uniform the following week against UND, but they weren't all the way back. Lorence hasn't been that healthy for much of the year. They are likely as healthy now as they've been, but despite not having a West type of season-ending injury, I can also remember seasons with better health.
I do agree with your overall point that BU has a better chance than what the numbers show. The game starts at 0-0, and 60 minutes isn't that long to prove that you are better. If the Terriers score a pretty goal, get one off a bounce, convert on a PP … it could get tricky.
TonyTheTiger20
#SOAR
Re: Which four D-I teams advance to the Frozen Four at Quinnipiac?
Hell, last year they could have probably played 10,000 seasons and lost a TOTAL of 3-5 times.*
*I'm being hyperbolic here.
Seriously though. To suggest that Minnesota is probably a 3-5 loss team is to insinuate that they would be a below-average national champion. The average number of losses for the national champion in a given year is about 3.5. Knowing that, to say that Minnesota would probably lose 3-5 games if you repeated this season is just incorrect.
And do too. I think maybe there was a little luck to Minnesota going unbeaten last year. But there is a HUGE, HUGE, HUGE, HUGE, HUGE difference between saying "they had a little luck along the way to go 41-0-0" and "if you played this season over 10,000 times they would probably lose 3-5 games most years."
Hell, last year they could have probably played 10,000 seasons and lost a TOTAL of 3-5 times.*
*I'm being hyperbolic here.
Seriously though. To suggest that Minnesota is probably a 3-5 loss team is to insinuate that they would be a below-average national champion. The average number of losses for the national champion in a given year is about 3.5. Knowing that, to say that Minnesota would probably lose 3-5 games if you repeated this season is just incorrect.
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Re: Which four D-I teams advance to the Frozen Four at Quinnipiac?
Actually, what I was trying to imply is that most years the best team has probably overperformed a bit. That's usually the way things go in most sports leagues.
Actually, what I was trying to imply is that most years the best team has probably overperformed a bit. That's usually the way things go in most sports leagues.
TonyTheTiger20
#SOAR
Re: Which four D-I teams advance to the Frozen Four at Quinnipiac?
That's a pretty neat, well-stated little theory. I could totally buy that.
Re: Which four D-I teams advance to the Frozen Four at Quinnipiac?
Favorite typo
Favorite typo
TonyTheTiger20
#SOAR
Re: Which four D-I teams advance to the Frozen Four at Quinnipiac?
IMO MN is a bit less than a 73% favorite to win it all...and not because MN is slightly better or slightly worse than 36-1-1.
It's because the NCAAs are notoriously difficult as many teams are honed and primed, and frequently solid favorites get upset.
IMO MN is a bit less than a 73% favorite to win it all...and not because MN is slightly better or slightly worse than 36-1-1.
It's because the NCAAs are notoriously difficult as many teams are honed and primed, and frequently solid favorites get upset.
mnpokecheck
Drinking the Koolaid
Re: Which four D-I teams advance to the Frozen Four at Quinnipiac?
I think with a 2 year record of 77-1-1, you make your luck. They've lost 3 games in their last 100.
Lets see if we can rebuild the aura....
+ 49 power play goals (32.89%) that is 1.28 goals per game. Next closest is Clarkson at 35 pp goals (19.27%)
+ Penalty Killl 92.4% (9 Opp ppg yielded - 1 every 4 games or so). So chances are you have to beat them 5x5.
+ Offense 4.76gpg less Defense 1.05gpg = 3.71gpg win margin. Next closest is Clarkson @ 2.56gpg win margin.
+ 24 game undefeated streak (on the road winning streak is over 2 years old - huge stat imo.) Last lost Nov 17th
+ Outshooting opponents over the last 2 years by nearly 2:1
+ 10 players near (28) or over 30 points - 3 lines that score. Which line do you put the checking line on?
+ An unknown quantity in goal to start the season (36-1-1 with a save percentage of .950 - need 20 shots to yield a goal). 13 shutouts (WI (2), UMD (3))
+ 18 game playoff win streak in WCHA and NCAA
+ 2x Defending Champion
Enough aura for you.
I think with a 2 year record of 77-1-1, you make your luck. They've lost 3 games in their last 100.
Lets see if we can rebuild the aura....
+ 49 power play goals (32.89%) that is 1.28 goals per game. Next closest is Clarkson at 35 pp goals (19.27%)
+ Penalty Killl 92.4% (9 Opp ppg yielded - 1 every 4 games or so). So chances are you have to beat them 5x5.
+ Offense 4.76gpg less Defense 1.05gpg = 3.71gpg win margin. Next closest is Clarkson @ 2.56gpg win margin.
+ 24 game undefeated streak (on the road winning streak is over 2 years old - huge stat imo.) Last lost Nov 17th
+ Outshooting opponents over the last 2 years by nearly 2:1
+ 10 players near (28) or over 30 points - 3 lines that score. Which line do you put the checking line on?
+ An unknown quantity in goal to start the season (36-1-1 with a save percentage of .950 - need 20 shots to yield a goal). 13 shutouts (WI (2), UMD (3))
+ 18 game playoff win streak in WCHA and NCAA
+ 2x Defending Champion
Enough aura for you.
clarksoncluck
New member
Re: Which four D-I teams advance to the Frozen Four at Quinnipiac?
If Ambrose is healthy - look out!!!! This is Clarkson's year, not last or next. This year. She will be healthy by the weekend - she'll play! Sorry BC, no stopping the train. They have plenty of weapons and have built their team for this year. Aura schmoora. See you in the finals, and Leveille will get tested beyond belief.
Remember, most of Clarkson are Canadian girls and most from Ontario. They all know Leveille well and trust me, they know her weaknesses. If I am Leveille or Minn, the last team I would want to see standing across from me is Clarkson. (btw - Howe has 13 SO/s as well).
If Ambrose is healthy - look out!!!! This is Clarkson's year, not last or next. This year. She will be healthy by the weekend - she'll play! Sorry BC, no stopping the train. They have plenty of weapons and have built their team for this year. Aura schmoora. See you in the finals, and Leveille will get tested beyond belief.
Remember, most of Clarkson are Canadian girls and most from Ontario. They all know Leveille well and trust me, they know her weaknesses. If I am Leveille or Minn, the last team I would want to see standing across from me is Clarkson. (btw - Howe has 13 SO/s as well).
Re: Which four D-I teams advance to the Frozen Four at Quinnipiac?
OH BOY. Woofing Gods please ignore.
With Ambrose, Clarkson has a shot at getting by BC and a rematch with either Cornell or Mercyhurst. Without her I doubt they can beat BC. I don't expect this to be a high scoring game (the winner getting more than 3 goals).
OH BOY. Woofing Gods please ignore.
With Ambrose, Clarkson has a shot at getting by BC and a rematch with either Cornell or Mercyhurst. Without her I doubt they can beat BC. I don't expect this to be a high scoring game (the winner getting more than 3 goals).
mnpokecheck
Drinking the Koolaid
Re: Which four D-I teams advance to the Frozen Four at Quinnipiac?
Let's look at Clarkson's aura......Losses - Mercyhurst, Harvard, No Dakota, and Cornell a couple of times; and Ties - Qpac, Princeton, Yale, Brown, and Mercyhurst..........so two of those teams on your side of the bracket plus BC. I hope your team is not dreaming about MN, because they will have their hands plenty full with teams that have already beaten them.
I hope Ambrose is healthy and good luck in your games.
Clarkson already has won its first 2 games according to you, so congrats. MN is focused on BU.
Let's look at Clarkson's aura......Losses - Mercyhurst, Harvard, No Dakota, and Cornell a couple of times; and Ties - Qpac, Princeton, Yale, Brown, and Mercyhurst..........so two of those teams on your side of the bracket plus BC. I hope your team is not dreaming about MN, because they will have their hands plenty full with teams that have already beaten them.
I hope Ambrose is healthy and good luck in your games.