Which Conference Will Claim the NCAA Champion in 6 Months?

[DC78-82]

Re: Which Conference Will Claim the NCAA Champion in 6 Months?

I think one of the team's that plays in the ECAC Open tournament at the end of the year is D-II. St. Michaels maybe? I don't know for sure.

St Anselm's. in Manchester, NH is a D-II school, and thus not eligible to play in the D-III tourney despite a predominanlt D-III schedule. Coach Dave Flint was at the helm from the program's first season, and built it into a program that would certainly be a perennial contender at the D-III level.

 

[oldfan]

Re: Which Conference Will Claim the NCAA Champion in 6 Months?

Technically you're right, but wasn't it so much more fun relishing the idea of a losing record, instead?

maybe for you, but not for me.

 

[ARM]

Re: Which Conference Will Claim the NCAA Champion in 6 Months?

Going to be a lot of movement in the polls all year, and wouldn't be surprised to see a team at .500 in January in the Frozen Four again.

Dave, so now that we're in January, do you see a Frozen Four prospect among the .500 teams? This does still look like a year where we could have some form of Cinderella, and Providence, for example, started the month sub .500.

With that in mind, what has been the best underdog run in the NCAA era? UMD made the title game as a low seed in 2007, but as the most-decorated team, I'm not sure that the glass slipper fits. Maybe BC knocking off a highly regarded Dartmouth and coming up just short in the semifinal OT the same year? There have been other single-game results that were upsets, like St. Lawrence upending Dartmouth in the first NCAA tournament game, but nothing I'd consider a run.

 

[nbound]

Re: Which Conference Will Claim the NCAA Champion in 6 Months?

for the past 10 years(since the NCAA began sponsoring the FF), the WCHA has won it EVERY YEAR. Will this year be the breakout year for some other conference beside the WCHA or will it remain with them?

 

[brookyone]

Re: Which Conference Will Claim the NCAA Champion in 6 Months?

for the past 10 years(since the NCAA began sponsoring the FF), the WCHA has won it EVERY YEAR. Will this year be the breakout year for some other conference beside the WCHA or will it remain with them?

Well I guess that is the very question on which the thread is based.

My own feeling is this year may just have the highest probability ever, of a non-WCHA NCAA champion.

 

[D2D]

Re: Which Conference Will Claim the NCAA Champion in 6 Months?

Well I guess that is the very question on which the thread is based.

My own feeling is this year may just have the highest probability ever, of a non-WCHA NCAA champion.

Totally agree as none of the top 3 in the WCHA has one of their all-time best teams this year. And it certainly wouldn't be an upset if No. 1 ranked Mercyhurst was to beat any of these 3 teams (or any other team for that matter) in the final. On the other hand, if a WCHA team DOES come through and is crowned as this year's NCAA champion, I'll have to come back and retract what I said in my first sentence above.

 

[nbound]

Re: Which Conference Will Claim the NCAA Champion in 6 Months?

Totally agree as none of the top 3 in the WCHA has one of their all-time best teams this year. And it certainly wouldn't be an upset if No. 1 ranked Mercyhurst was to beat any of these 3 teams (or any other team for that matter) in the final. On the other hand, if a WCHA team DOES come through and is crowned as this year's NCAA champion, I'll have to come back and retract what I said in my first sentence above.

thanks for the olympics someone else will have a chance

 

[dave1381]

Re: Which Conference Will Claim the NCAA Champion in 6 Months?

Dave, so now that we're in January, do you see a Frozen Four prospect among the .500 teams? This does still look like a year where we could have some form of Cinderella, and Providence, for example, started the month sub .500.

With that in mind, what has been the best underdog run in the NCAA era? UMD made the title game as a low seed in 2007, but as the most-decorated team, I'm not sure that the glass slipper fits. Maybe BC knocking off a highly regarded Dartmouth and coming up just short in the semifinal OT the same year? There have been other single-game results that were upsets, like St. Lawrence upending Dartmouth in the first NCAA tournament game, but nothing I'd consider a run.

As for the standout list of teams that looked lost early but made it deep into the postseason, I'd consider the following. This isn't a list of cinderellas (there are two two-time defending NCAA champion, and another two-time defending NCAA runner-up!!) Just a list of teams that improved a ton as the season went along.

2001-02 Brown -- started 6-6-1 (and 4-5-1), then went 19-1-1 en route to the NCAA final game, including the ECAC title and the win over No. 1 seed Minnesota in the Frozen Four. Lost to UMD, decided in the 3rd period.

2004-05 Harvard -- started 7-6-1, then 19-0-2 en route to the NCAA final game, a 1-goal loss. Lost to Minnesota, decided in the 3rd period.

2005-06 Minnesota -- started 9-5 (4-4 WCHA), finished 20-4-1 before losing NCAA final to Wisconsin.

2006-07 UMD -- started 9-7-1, including a 1-6-1 stretch, then went 15-3-3, upset Mercyhurst, before getting blown out in the NCAA final by Wisconsin.

2007-08 Wisconsin -- started 10-6-1, including a 1-6-1 stretch, then went 19-2-1, before getting blown out in the NCAA final by UMD.

But yes, you did have a stretch of 4 years in a row where the national runner-up seemed pretty far outside of the top 4 at midseason.

 

[CanHockGuy]

Re: Which Conference Will Claim the NCAA Champion in 6 Months?

thanks for the olympics someone else will have a chance

Maybe for 2 years or more....

 

[dave1381]

Re: Which Conference Will Claim the NCAA Champion in 6 Months?

As for the question on sleepers -- Mercyhurst, Minnesota, Clarkson, and UNH have held down the top 4 spots for pretty much the entire season. Making my previous list is just a matter of someone other than those 4 teams making it into the title game. I think there's a pretty fair chance of that happening.

In terms of 500 near-500 teams making it to the Frozen Four, I think you'd have to consider Providence (beaten UNH 3 times), Cornell (beaten Harvard and Clarkson) as those who've shown the most potential in the east. Quinnipiac is on a pretty nice run as well.

 

[dave1381]

Re: Which Conference Will Claim the NCAA Champion in 6 Months?

And it'll be tougher to get a sleeper from the WCHA or CHA to go deep, because of the tough competition for the WCHA autobid, and the fact the CHA doesn't have one. Autobids much easier to come by in the East.

 

[ARM]

Re: Which Conference Will Claim the NCAA Champion in 6 Months?

2005-06 Minnesota -- started 9-5 (4-4 WCHA), finished 20-4-1 before losing NCAA final to Wisconsin. ...
But yes, you did have a stretch of 4 years in a row where the national runner-up seemed pretty far outside of the top 4 at midseason.

If that's the requirement, then I don't know that I'd say Minnesota qualifies. They were ranked #5 or better all season in USA Today, and only dropped as low as #6 once in USCHO.

If UMD or Harvard advance to the Frozen Four, I'd question if they really belong in the discussion as well. UMD showed early on with their win in Erie that they were a factor, and Harvard's brief slide could be tied to losing Kessler for the MPL Cup. If either stay on a roll for the next two months, it wouldn't be much of a surprise.

 

[dave1381]

Re: Which Conference Will Claim the NCAA Champion in 6 Months?

Certainly 05-06 Minnesota is and UMD/Harvard this year would be at the low end of the mid-season surprises discussion. I hesitated to add 05-06 Minnesota to that list at first.

 

[dave1381]

Re: Which Conference Will Claim the NCAA Champion in 6 Months?

Hockey East now has a decent shot at getting 4 teams into the NCAA tournament -- at least they're closer to that outcome than any league ever has been before. If (1) Clarkson wins the ECAC, (2) if Kessler is out and tonight is indicative of where Harvard is headed this season without her, (3) Wisconsin continues to play .500 hockey against everyone, then Hockey East could get 4 in. And if Providence, UConn, or Northeastern made the Frozen Four, that'd have to qualify as a surprise based on preseason expectations.

 

[Just Hockey]

Re: Which Conference Will Claim the NCAA Champion in 6 Months?

If UMD gets there I think that the coaching staff led by Miller would be a big asset for them. You cannot take that experience of being there and knowing how to prepare away from the big 3 from the West but I will give the edge to UMD

 

[ARM]

Re: Which Conference Will Claim the National Collegiate Champion in 6 Months?

Re: Which Conference Will Claim the National Collegiate Champion in 6 Months?

The #2 betting choice is the only one eliminated thus far. The WCHA is assured of having a team in the final, with CHA owning the favorite. Cornell is the "surprise team", based on preseason expectations, to make the Frozen Four.

 

[dave1381]

Re: Which Conference Will Claim the NCAA Champion in 6 Months?

Going to be a lot of movement in the polls all year, and wouldn't be surprised to see a team at .500 in January in the Frozen Four again.

Yeah, not quite .500, but if this UMD lead holds, you'll have two finalists who had slipped pretty far down the rankings in January.

In mid-January, Cornell was 8-7-3, UMD was 13-7-2, while Mercyhurst and Minnesota had 4 total losses.

To have a team in the middle of the pack in January make the NCAA final has been more the norm rather than the exception.

 

[OnMAA]

Re: Which Conference Will Claim the NCAA Champion in 6 Months?

Yeah, not quite .500, but if this UMD lead holds, you'll have two finalists who had slipped pretty far down the rankings in January.

In mid-January, Cornell was 8-7-3, UMD was 13-7-2, while Mercyhurst and Minnesota had 4 total losses.

To have a team in the middle of the pack in January make the NCAA final has been more the norm rather than the exception.

Would this be more probable in a year like this one with the Olympians missing. That seems to level the playing field somewhat.

Having said that, both teams teams will have the services of two next year.
( Cornell is missing two (Jenner/Johnston) who they get back next year and UMD added Larocque late and will get Irwin back next year ).

 

[gojackets]

Re: Which Conference Will Claim the National Collegiate Champion in 6 Months?

Re: Which Conference Will Claim the National Collegiate Champion in 6 Months?

The #2 betting choice is the only one eliminated thus far. The WCHA is assured of having a team in the final, with CHA owning the favorite. Cornell is the "surprise team", based on preseason expectations, to make the Frozen Four.

How crazily unexpected would it be if Cornell was the team the ended the WCHA stranglehold on the National Collegiate Championship

 

[dave1381]

Re: Which Conference Will Claim the National Collegiate Champion in 6 Months?

Re: Which Conference Will Claim the National Collegiate Champion in 6 Months?

Would have been pretty long odds in Vegas. 1 - 500 maybe. Those odds should now be about 1 - 3 or better.

I think you mean 500-to-1 and 3-to-1.

Cornell is actually winning 63-37% on the uscho.com/women poll now. I'm not sure if this reflects fans who think Cornell actually will win, vs. the actual quantity of fan support behind Cornell.