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WCHA Season Thread 2017-18: In Which We Try For Two Bids

Re: WCHA Season Thread 2017-18: In Which We Try For Two Bids

Like Geof said, but with fancier numbers, it is still a mess!

1 Northern Michigan 58 26 (home ice, 1-3)
2 Minnesota State 57 24 (home ice, 1-3)
3 Bowling Green 49 24 (home ice, 1-4)
4 Bemidji State 42 24 (playoffs, 3-5)
5 Michigan Tech 40 26 (playoffs, 4-7)
6 Alabama Huntsville 30 26 (6-9)
7 Alaska 29 24 (5-9)
8 Ferris State 28 24 (5-9)
9 Lake Superior State 27 26 (6-9)
10 Alaska Anchorage 12 24 (out, 10)

Conference Schedule remaining:

Mankato: Ferris, Bemidji
Bowling Green: at Anchorage, at Huntsville
Northern: home and home with Tech
Bemidji: Alaska, at Mankato
Michigan Tech: home and home with Northern
Huntsville: Bowling Green
Alaska: at Bemidji, Anchorage
Ferris: at Mankato, Lake State
Lake State: at Ferris
Anchorage: Bowling Green, at Alaska
 
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Re: WCHA Season Thread 2017-18: In Which We Try For Two Bids

gfmorris said:
I did a best-worst for all of the teams: http://blog.wchaplayoffs.com/2018/02/15/2017-18-final-stretch-best-worst/

Of note: MTU finishes in sixth if they lose out and FSU & UAF win out.

MSU-NMU-BGSU: All can finish 1-2-3
BSU: 4-5
MTU: 4-5-6
UAF: 5-6-7-8-9
FSU: 5-6-7-8-9
UAH: 6-7-8-9
LSSU: 6-7-8-9

GFM
Click to expand...

Thanks Geof, I now see my error with how I got Tech down to seventh.....

On another note, Bemidji State getting a lot of mention on the Olympic broadcast of the Korea/Czech Republic game. Former Beaver goaltender Matt Dalton is the starting goalie for the Korean team. He is keeping the Koreans in it as they are down 2-1 in the third.

EDIT: Czech Republic 2, Korea 1, Final

http://www.bemidjipioneer.com/sport...eam-takes-former-bsu-goalie-matt-dalton-korea
 
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Re: WCHA Season Thread 2017-18: In Which We Try For Two Bids

So, the Geof-Millsy hybrid model shows:

Northern 1-3
Mankato 1-3
Bowling Green 1-4
Bemidji 3-5
Tech 4-6
Fairbanks 5-9
Ferris 5-9
Huntsville 6-9
Lake State 6-9
UAA 10
 
Re: WCHA Season Thread 2017-18: In Which We Try For Two Bids

1 Northern Michigan 58 26 (home ice, 1-3)
2 Minnesota State 57 24 (home ice, 1-3)
3 Bowling Green 52 25 (home ice, 1-4)
4 Bemidji State 44 25 (playoffs, 3-5)
5 Michigan Tech 40 26 (playoffs, 4-6)
6 Alabama Huntsville 30 26 (6-9)
7 Alaska 30 25 (6-9)
8 Ferris State 28 24 (5-9)
9 Lake Superior State 27 26 (6-9)
10 Alaska Anchorage 12 25 (out, 10)
 
Re: WCHA Season Thread 2017-18: In Which We Try For Two Bids

Yep, I screwed up the BSU maximum. I know how I did it, but I don't know why I got it wrong...

GFM
 
Re: WCHA Season Thread 2017-18: In Which We Try For Two Bids

BELOW ratings after the penultimate week: http://blog.wchaplayoffs.com/2018/02/18/2017-18-wcha-below-week-18/

Teasing out the Minnesota State - Northern Michigan - Bowling Green tiebreakers: http://blog.wchaplayoffs.com/2018/0...ta-state-northern-michigan-and-bowling-green/

https://twitter.com/wchaplayoffs/status/965266864522833920

https://twitter.com/wchaplayoffs/status/965267462441795590

UAH and UAF finishing this last week 9-1-1-15 is a nightmare scenario for making the tiebreakers go easily.

GFM
 
Re: WCHA Season Thread 2017-18: In Which We Try For Two Bids

So given this (admittedly unlikely) scenario, what happens to seeding and who gets in?

FSU loses then wins in the shootout/3x3
BGSU sweeps UAH
UAA sweeps Fairbanks

LSSU finishes 6th with 31 points, but behind that:

UAH 9-16-2-1
UAF 9-16-2-1
FSU 9-16-2-1

Wow.
 
Re: WCHA Season Thread 2017-18: In Which We Try For Two Bids

John J. MacInnes said:
So given this (admittedly unlikely) scenario, what happens to seeding and who gets in?

FSU loses then wins in the shootout/3x3
BGSU sweeps UAH
UAA sweeps Fairbanks

LSSU finishes 6th with 31 points, but behind that:

UAH 9-16-2-1
UAF 9-16-2-1
FSU 9-16-2-1

Wow.
Click to expand...
From how I understand the WCHA tiebreaker, www.wcha.com/men/standings.php you have to go down to Section E where records against the highest ranked WCHA team.

If the top of the standings stays the same, I come up with:
#7=UAF (best record vs MSUM)
#8=UAH (better record vs NMU)


Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
 
Re: WCHA Season Thread 2017-18: In Which We Try For Two Bids

According to CHN, WCHA has >38% chance of getting 2 teams in the tournament this year. MSU is listed as a lock now and NMU (23%)/BGSU (16%)/BSU (none-zero) chance of getting an at large bid. From all of that, I'd put WCHA on 2 bids about 50% of the time. Need NMU/BGSU/MSU to win most of their games not against each other the next 2 weeks.
 
Re: WCHA Season Thread 2017-18: In Which We Try For Two Bids

MTUHuskies said:
From how I understand the WCHA tiebreaker, www.wcha.com/men/standings.php you have to go down to Section E where records against the highest ranked WCHA team.

If the top of the standings stays the same, I come up with:
#7=UAF (best record vs MSUM)
#8=UAH (better record vs NMU)


Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

This is correct.

http://blog.wchaplayoffs.com/2018/02/19/where-we-are-2018-02-19/

Man, it would be awesome if the scenario that I outlined happens on Friday. I would be very happy to only be worried where UAF, UAH, and FSU finish. At that point, we're looking at maybe 30 minutes of tie-breaking and not a few hours.

GFM
 
Shirtless Guy said:
According to CHN, WCHA has >38% chance of getting 2 teams in the tournament this year. MSU is listed as a lock now and NMU (23%)/BGSU (16%)/BSU (none-zero) chance of getting an at large bid. From all of that, I'd put WCHA on 2 bids about 50% of the time. Need NMU/BGSU/MSU to win most of their games not against each other the next 2 weeks.
Click to expand...

If I’m Bill Robertson, I’m secretly hoping someone besides Mankato or NMU wins the autobid. Guarantees two teams, with a decent shot at three depending on what happens with NMU down the stretch.
 
Re: WCHA Season Thread 2017-18: In Which We Try For Two Bids

Squarebanks said:
If I’m Bill Robertson, I’m secretly hoping someone besides Mankato or NMU wins the autobid. Guarantees two teams, with a decent shot at three depending on what happens with NMU down the stretch.
Click to expand...
MTUHuskies is not so secretly hoping someone besides Mankato or NMU wins the autobid.

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
 
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