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WCHA Playoffs 2015: MacNaughton Quest Determined

Re: WCHA Playoffs 2015: MacNaughton Quest Determined

This is why I just want NMU to win and just let the rest sort itself out... Trying to figure out all the scenarios gives me a headache :p
 
Re: WCHA Playoffs 2015: MacNaughton Quest Determined

stuckinwi said:
Where's Geoff? We need Geoff.
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Sorry, I've been busy securing new work [hooray!]. http://blog.wchaplayoffs.com/2015/03/04/week-24-bestworst/ has the answers. I will have a full-scale PDF like I did last year sometime tomorrow unless our power goes out thanks to the incoming ice storm. I want to work on it right now, but my fiancée disapproves of that idea.

I will also try to give my best guesses as to what will actually happen with the scenarios. For example, UAA can make the playoffs (and LSSU would miss) if the Lakers and Chargers are swept and they sweep Fairbanks. How likely is that combination? We'll see.

GFM
 
Re: WCHA Playoffs 2015: MacNaughton Quest Determined

Okay, those of you that play with all the formulas/predictors and everything, would this scenario be enough to get four WCHA teams into the NCAA Tournament. I would just love to bump another conference, especially if it is the NCHC!

Mankato, Tech, Bowling Green and BSU (since they are the fourth ranked Pairwise WCHA Team, but on the outside) all win their first round series. I know Bemidji needs the auto bid as there is no way for them to get their Pairwise high enough to get an at large.

BSU downs Mankato and Bowling Green downs Tech in the semis. Mankato and Tech would still be in based on Pairwise.
BSU downs Bowling Green for the auto bid. BSU is in, but would it keep Bowling Green's bubble from bursting?

I suppose it may work for just about any of the teams outside of the top three, but I used BSU since their Pairwise was the highest remaining and with the Beavers defeating Bowling Green, it would have the smallest impact on Bowling Green's number.
 
Re: WCHA Playoffs 2015: MacNaughton Quest Determined

beaverhockeyfan said:
Okay, those of you that play with all the formulas/predictors and everything, would this scenario be enough to get four WCHA teams into the NCAA Tournament. I would just love to bump another conference, especially if it is the NCHC!

Mankato, Tech, Bowling Green and BSU (since they are the fourth ranked Pairwise WCHA Team, but on the outside) all win their first round series. I know Bemidji needs the auto bid as there is no way for them to get their Pairwise high enough to get an at large.

BSU downs Mankato and Bowling Green downs Tech in the semis. Mankato and Tech would still be in based on Pairwise.
BSU downs Bowling Green for the auto bid. BSU is in, but would it keep Bowling Green's bubble from bursting?

I suppose it may work for just about any of the teams outside of the top three, but I used BSU since their Pairwise was the highest remaining and with the Beavers defeating Bowling Green, it would have the smallest impact on Bowling Green's number.
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The biggest concern with this scenario is that BGSU must sweep this weekend for it have a chance of working...even then, I'm not sure the bump from beating MTU would be enough to get BGSU into the safe zone with a loss to BSU. If there are very few other upsets that result in AQs going to teams below 14 in the PWR, I don't think it will work. The predictor doesn't really work anymore because it doesn't incorporate conference tournaments, we really need to wait until at least next weekend or the weekend after before we have those answers. I'd try and work through that stuff on slack.net but that site no longer works and CHN doesnt let you input games that don't currently exist yet.

EDIT: To attempt to see what would happen if BGSU beat MTU in the F5, I changed the results of the earlier series to a sweep by BGSU. That moved them up to 11...that tells me that they aren't going to be higher than 12th if they sweep UAH, their first round matchup and beat MTU before losing to BSU. I'd feel better at 12th than 14 but who knows how other things play out.
 
Re: WCHA Playoffs 2015: MacNaughton Quest Determined

Speaking of math, I won't have time to run it today. As much free time as I had to do this last year, right now I'm 1) newly-engaged 2) doing the bulk of the wedding planning 3) working to move her into my house by the end of the month 4) weighing two job offers and 5) currently stuck in my house with my fiancée thanks to the ice. Somehow, she doesn't think "spending hours in front of Excel" is a good way to spend my yesterday (or today). Hopefully tomorrow.

Also, I'm with Shirtless about the top three getting into the NCAAs at at-large bids while Bemidji (or anyone else) gets in via the Broadmoor. That would be completely awesome, but it probably requires a lot of dominoes falling.

GFM
 
Re: WCHA Playoffs 2015: MacNaughton Quest Determined

gfmorris said:
Speaking of math, I won't have time to run it today. As much free time as I had to do this last year, right now I'm 1) newly-engaged 2) doing the bulk of the wedding planning 3) working to move her into my house by the end of the month 4) weighing two job offers and 5) currently stuck in my house with my fiancée thanks to the ice. Somehow, she doesn't think "spending hours in front of Excel" is a good way to spend my yesterday (or today). Hopefully tomorrow.

Also, I'm with Shirtless about the top three getting into the NCAAs at at-large bids while Bemidji (or anyone else) gets in via the Broadmoor. That would be completely awesome, but it probably requires a lot of dominoes falling.

GFM
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BGSU better step up big time and get a little bit lucky too. A number of teams from ecac hockey could get an auto bid.
 
Re: WCHA Playoffs 2015: MacNaughton Quest Determined

manurespreader said:
BGSU better step up big time and get a little bit lucky too. A number of teams from ecac hockey could get an auto bid.
Click to expand...

I keep trying to decide "what's best for the league". Obviously Commissioner Robertson wants three league members in the 16-team field, and I think that most of us would agree with that. But frankly, I want either Tech or Mankato — preferably Mankato given their PWR status — to win the Broadmoor. I really want the WCHA champion to be the #1 seed to shut up the haters.

GFM
 
Re: WCHA Playoffs 2015: MacNaughton Quest Determined

manurespreader said:
BGSU better step up big time and get a little bit lucky too. A number of teams from ecac hockey could get an auto bid.
Click to expand...

Some teams from the WCHA could get an auto-bid with a hot goalie.

gfmorris said:
I keep trying to decide "what's best for the league". Obviously Commissioner Robertson wants three league members in the 16-team field, and I think that most of us would agree with that. But frankly, I want either Tech or Mankato — preferably Mankato given their PWR status — to win the Broadmoor. I really want the WCHA champion to be the #1 seed to shut up the haters.

GFM
Click to expand...

Being a 1 seed these days, IMO, is pretty overrated. Lots of recent FF teams and champions were 2 or 3 seeds.
 
Re: WCHA Playoffs 2015: MacNaughton Quest Determined

Come on Bulldogs. Not that I have anything against Lake State, but I want the pleasure of knocking UAA out tonight.
 
Re: WCHA Playoffs 2015: MacNaughton Quest Determined

So going into tonight we have for the playoffs:

Mankato/Tech hosting Lake/Huntsville
Bowling Green hosting Northern/Ferris
Bemidji hosting Northern/Ferris

Still some drama tonight!
 
Re: WCHA Playoffs 2015: MacNaughton Quest Determined

http://blog.wchaplayoffs.com/2015/03/07/2014-15-wcha-playoff-branches/ — that'll give you a guide to what happens in all 81 scenarios. (UAF-UAA only matters in terms of the Governors Cup.)

My gut feeling is 1-MSU, 2-MTU, 3-BGSU, 4-BSU, 5-NMU, 6-FSU, 7-UAH, 8-LSSU. I am prepared to be wrong. I know that the top two seeds want the McNaughton and that BG wants to stay up in the PWR, but honestly, it doesn't matter if UAH or LSSU is 7th or 8th. They're going to be speed bumps.

GFM
 
Re: WCHA Playoffs 2015: MacNaughton Quest Determined

NMUFAN said:
Who wins the tie breaker should NMU and FSU tie?
Click to expand...

Looks like FSU gets the tiebreaker:
Northern Michigan gets the #5 seed anytime then win and anytime Ferris State loses. If Northern loses and Ferris wins, the Wildcats are 6th. If both teams tie on the night, Northern Michigan is 5th. If Ferris and Northern go to a tiebreaker — Ferris win + Northern tie, Ferris tie + Northern loss, etc. — Northern Michigan is 6th. The Wildcats get the 5th seed in 54 of 81 possible scenarios.
Ferris State gets the 5th seed only when it wins and Northern Michigan doesn’t win or when it ties and Northern Michigan loses (27 of 81 possible scenarios). Otherwise, the Bulldogs end up in 6th.
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**EDIT** And the reasoning behind that is this:
http://www.wcha.com/men/standings.php
B) If two or more teams are still tied (or all tied teams have not played four contests against one another), then the team with the greater number of conference wins will be granted the higher seed.
C) If two or more teams are still tied (and A) above is not applicable due to an unbalanced home and away schedule amongst one another), then the team with the highest winning percentage in all head-to-head contests among the tied teams will be granted the higher seed.
D) If not determined by A), or B), or C) above, the recipient of the highest seed shall be determined by comparison of the winning percentages of the tied teams, against the remaining highest ranked WCHA team successively, until the determination is accomplished, or all conference contests have been considered. In the event of multiple ties within the standings that become dependent on one another for determination, the procedure shall be applied to the highest tie first, using combined winning percentage against all teams involved in the lower tie(s) and continuing through the order if needed. If this fails to break the highest tie, the procedure shall be applied to the next highest tie (and so on if needed), using combined winning percentage against all tied teams as needed when proceeding through the standings.
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Re: WCHA Playoffs 2015: MacNaughton Quest Determined

aparch got it, and the reason why is that Ferris has one more conference (B tiebreaker) win than Northern and would still in any scenario where the teams are tied. Head-to-head only applies if you play four games during the season (A tiebreaker).

The relevant tiebreakers:
· MSU over MTU based on A tiebreaker (3-0-1 v. the Huskies)
· FSU over NMU based on B tiebreaker (teams didn't play four times, FSU has more conference wins)
· UAH over LSSU based on A tiebreaker (Chargers were 2-1-1).

Man, I forgot how nuts last year was: we only knew #3 (UAF) and #10 (UAH) going into Saturday night. LSSU could have finished as high as 6th or missed the playoffs (which they did), as could NMU. I'm really glad that I had to consider only four games this year, because solving 81 combinations is much simpler than 243.

GFM
 
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