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WCHA Pick 'Em 2018-2019

Re: WCHA Pick 'Em 2018-2019

Can't help with the Catamount or Desert Classic, but I can tell you that both the consolation and championship game at the GLI will be settled by shootout if need be. They scheduled the second day as part of a tripleheader with the Red Wings that night, so the championship game can't go with unlimited overtime as has been the custom. The consolation game went to the shootout option a couple years ago, so there will be no tie.
JJM, what about the semi-finals?

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Re: WCHA Pick 'Em 2018-2019

Can't help with the Catamount or Desert Classic, but I can tell you that both the consolation and championship game at the GLI will be settled by shootout if need be. They scheduled the second day as part of a tripleheader with the Red Wings that night, so the championship game can't go with unlimited overtime as has been the custom. The consolation game went to the shootout option a couple years ago, so there will be no tie.

Thanks for the help, GLI will follow standard "post-OT" scoring (2 pts for a SO win, 1 pt for a SO loss).
 
Re: WCHA Pick 'Em 2018-2019

The chart below shows how many times a team has been picked to win through the first half of the season.

<img src="http://jefffrederick.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/chart.png " alt="Frequency of each team picked to win";">
 
Re: WCHA Pick 'Em 2018-2019

Thanks for the help, GLI will follow standard "post-OT" scoring (2 pts for a SO win, 1 pt for a SO loss).

What impact would those points have? It's a tournament. Either you advance/win or you don't. If there's still a tie after one OT then NCAA recognizes it as a tie no matter what happens.
 
What impact would those points have? It's a tournament. Either you advance/win or you don't. If there's still a tie after one OT then NCAA recognizes it as a tie no matter what happens.

Let me put it to you this way...at this time of year I pray every game has a winner before 65 min are up.
 
Re: WCHA Pick 'Em 2018-2019

Just got through reading the manual for the GLI. The consolation game has been changed due to time constraints, and can now end in a tie. All three other games will end in a shootout if necessary.
 
Re: WCHA Pick 'Em 2018-2019

Just got through reading the manual for the GLI. The consolation game has been changed due to time constraints, and can now end in a tie. All three other games will end in a shootout if necessary.

Thanks for the update JJM. If anyone wants to play for the tie go ahead and submit a second entry. I always take the latest submission as your final answer.
 
Re: WCHA Pick 'Em 2018-2019

Why can't I ever find a link to make picks? You all must be afraid of my prognostication skills!

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Re: WCHA Pick 'Em 2018-2019

The week 12 holiday tournament co-winners were Critical Thinker and Icd80 who posted scores of 27 points each. At the top of the standings it is rapidly becoming a two-person race for the McNaughton Cup between Bronco Hockey Fan and SweeneyHawksHockey and a three-person race for the Mason Cup between those two and GIWAN. I also want to point out how mikeeddy19 has steadily worked into a playoff position after spotting the field nearly 30 games.

Reminder that the first Bemidji at BG tee time is 7:37 this Thursday so get those picks in.

Week 13 picks
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<img src=" http://jefffrederick.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/Week-12.png" alt="WCHA Pick Em Standings";">
 
Re: WCHA Pick 'Em 2018-2019

Bump. With the race on to get picks submitted before Thursday's resumption of the WCHA season, this seems as good a time as any to share a heat map showing what days our players prefer to submit their picks. The darker the green, the more times picks were submitted on that day.

Week 13 picks
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<img src=" http://jefffrederick.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/DOW-Heat-Map.png" alt="WCHA Pick Em day-of-week heat map";">
 
Re: WCHA Pick 'Em 2018-2019

Note: I just noticed that for last week Beaver Hockey Fan in NH, giwan, and Mavsfan19 posted entries prior to the Friday games. These scores will be included in the results I post on Sunday. Sorry I didn't catch that sooner. Good news is it did not affect the weekly winner.
 
Re: WCHA Pick 'Em 2018-2019

MTUHuskyGold won week 14 with a score of 26 missing only Alaska's upset of Bemidji Saturday night. The top of the standings shuffled again as SweeneyHawksHockey retakes the lead with a big 25 point week.

Two 5-point bonus questions for week 15. It's a little different so feel free to post your questions.

There are seven weeks left in the regular season. Playoff info will be coming next week.


Week 15 picks
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<img src="http://jefffrederick.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/Week-14.png" alt="WCHA Pick Em Standings";">
 
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Re: WCHA Pick 'Em 2018-2019

El bumpo. Missing quite a few regulars.

*Edit: Also need to go old school for a bit with the standings as USCHO changed their security settings which broke all my web links. Will have that fixed at some point, thanks for the patience.

Code:
  Rank  Contestant (W/L/SOW/SOL)             Points  Bonus   Total  Points % Games
   1    SweeneyHawksHockey (106-38-3-4)       328      8      336    0.724    151
   2    Bronco Hockey Fan (103-41-3-4)        319      15     334    0.704    151
   3    TalonsUpPuckDown (103-41-3-4)         319      1      320    0.704    151
   4    GoNanooks (100-44-3-4)                310      7      317    0.684    151
   5    beaverhockeyfan (100-44-1-6)          308      7      315    0.680    151
   6    gochiefs (101-43-4-3)                 314      0      314    0.693    151
   6    <3_Blizzard (95-49-4-3)               296      18     314    0.653    151
   8    GIWAN (96-37-4-3)                     299      14     313    0.712    140
   9    kckrieg84 (98-46-3-4)                 304      3      307    0.671    151
   10   IceKnight81 (97-47-3-4)               301      4      305    0.664    151
   10   Critical Thinker (95-49-3-4)          295      10     305    0.651    151
   12   potternmu (98-46-3-4)                 304      0      304    0.671    151
   13   John J. MacInnes (95-49-4-3)          296      5      301    0.653    151
   14   Wi.HuskiesFan (96-48-3-4)             298      0      298    0.658    151
   14   klbaum1077 (95-49-4-3)                296      2      298    0.653    151
   16   Laker Dude (92-46-3-4)                286      11     297    0.657    145
   17   BGFan (95-49-3-4)                     295      0      295    0.651    151
   18   Icd80 (92-52-3-4)                     286      8      294    0.631    151
   19   Jbakerifm (93-46-3-4)                 289      3      292    0.660    146
   20   mbenecke (92-52-4-3)                  287      4      291    0.634    151
   20   crossjcek (93-50-3-3)                 288      3      291    0.644    149
   22   Deejpuck (93-51-3-4)                  289      1      290    0.638    151
   23   Soulbeaver (89-55-1-6)                275      13     288    0.607    151
   24   puckdude40 (87-54-2-3)                268      18     286    0.612    146
   24   MTUHuskyGold (90-54-4-3)              281      5      286    0.620    151
   26   BGSURICK (90-54-2-5)                  279      0      279    0.616    151
   27   UAFIceAngel (84-60-4-3)               263      14     277    0.581    151
   27   Mich Tech 64 (89-49-3-4)              277      0      277    0.637    145
   29   mikeeddy19 (81-35-3-4)                253      10     263    0.686    123
   29   Hatch_man (82-46-3-4)                 256      7      263    0.632    135
   31   SectionP (82-52-4-3)                  257      2      259    0.608    141
   32   hawerchuck (80-55-5-2)                252      6      258    0.592    142
   33   Hockey John (80-53-4-1)               249      6      255    0.601    138
   34   Mavsfan19 (82-52-2-4)                 254      0      254    0.605    140
   35   cajunuahfan (81-55-2-3)               250      0      250    0.591    141
   36   MavHockey14 (79-44-2-5)               246      0      246    0.631    130
   37   Manurespreader (69-41-3-4)            217      6      223    0.618    117
   38   MTUHuskies (56-37-2-1)                173      17     190    0.601     96
 
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Re: WCHA Pick 'Em 2018-2019

Big update this week, I apologize for the length. First off, you will find the playoff rules below the weekly standings.

The winner of week 15 was cajunuahfan who posted a score of 25 points including 7 bonus points. BroncoHockeyFan rode the bonus wave back into a first place tie with SweeneyHawksHockey who still clings to a 2 game lead in the quest for the Mason Cup. The average GWG time in the UAA/UAH series was 32 min (rounded down) while the total PP, SH, EN, EA goals was 18. potternum claimed 9 bonus points which led the bonus picking.

Code:
Name                      GWG Time  PP, SH, ENG, EA  Total
potternmu                    5             4           9
cajunuahfan                  5             2           7
GIWAN                        1             5           6
BGSURICK                     0             5           5
Bronco Hockey Fan            0             5           5
Hockey John                  0             5           5
Icd80                        0             5           5
Laker Dude                   0             4           4
MTUHuskyGold                 0             4           4
puckdude40                   0             4           4
SectionP                     0             4           4
<3_Blizzard                  0             3           3
BGFan                        0             3           3
hawerchuck                   0             3           3
IceKnight81                  3             0           3
gochiefs                     0             2           2
kckrieg84                    0             2           2
klbaum1077                   0             2           2
Wi.HuskiesFan                0             2           2
GoNanooks                    0             1           1
Hatch_man                    1             0           1
John J. MacInnes             1             0           1
MavHockey14                  0             1           1
mikeeddy19                   0             1           1
UAFIceAngel                  0             1           1

Full slate of games for week 16 so no bonus. I added two more columns to the weekly standings: Playoff points behind (points needed to make the field of 32) and Playoff % (percent likelihood of making the playoffs based on 100 simulations).

Week 16 picks
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Code:
Rank  Contestant (W/L/SOW/SOL)           This Wk  Points  Bonus   Total  Points % Games  Pts Behind  Playoff %
   1    SweeneyHawksHockey (111-41-3-4)       15     343       8     351     .719    159       -         100%
   1    Bronco Hockey Fan (107-45-3-4)        17     331      20     351     .694    159       -         100%
   3    TalonsUpPuckDown (109-43-3-4)         18     337       1     338     .706    159       -         100%
   4    GIWAN (101-40-4-3)                    21     314      20     334     .707    148       -         100%
   6    beaverhockeyfan (106-46-1-6)          18     326       7     333     .683    159       -         100%
   6    GoNanooks (105-47-3-4)                16     325       8     333     .681    159       -         100%
   7    gochiefs (106-46-4-3)                 17     329       2     331     .690    159       -         100%
   8    potternmu (103-49-3-4)                24     319       9     328     .669    159       -          99%
   9    IceKnight81 (103-49-3-4)              21     319       7     326     .669    159       -          99%
   9    <3_Blizzard (98-54-4-3)               12     305      21     326     .639    159       -          96%
   11   kckrieg84 (102-50-3-4)                14     316       5     321     .662    159       -          99%
   12   John J. MacInnes (100-52-4-3)         16     311       6     317     .652    159       -          99%
   12   Critical Thinker (99-53-3-4)          12     307      10     317     .644    159       -         100%
   14   Wi.HuskiesFan (101-51-3-4)            17     313       2     315     .656    159       -          97%
   15   Icd80 (97-55-3-4)                     20     301      13     314     .631    159       -          94%
   17   BGFan (100-52-3-4)                    18     310       3     313     .650    159       -         100%
   17   Laker Dude (96-50-3-4)                16     298      15     313     .649    153       -          98%
   18   klbaum1077 (99-53-4-3)                14     308       4     312     .646    159       -          99%
   21   crossjcek (98-53-3-3)                 15     303       3     306     .643    157       -          97%
   21   mbenecke (97-55-4-3)                  15     302       4     306     .633    159       -         100%
   21   Soulbeaver (95-57-1-6)                18     293      13     306     .614    159       -          97%
   22   puckdude40 (92-57-2-3)                19     283      22     305     .613    154       -          89%
   23   Jbakerifm (97-50-3-4)                 12     301       3     304     .652    154       -          94%
   25   BGSURICK (96-56-2-5)                  23     297       5     302     .623    159       -          92%
   25   MTUHuskyGold (94-58-4-3)              16     293       9     302     .614    159       -          93%
   26   Deejpuck (96-56-3-4)                   9     298       1     299     .625    159       -          88%
   27   UAFIceAngel (89-63-4-3)               16     278      15     293     .583    159       -          90%
   28   Mich Tech 64 (93-53-3-4)              12     289       0     289     .630    153       -          82%
   29   Hockey John (86-55-4-1)               23     267      11     278     .610    146       -          77%
   30   Hatch_man (86-50-3-4)                 13     268       8     276     .625    143       -          69%
   30   hawerchuck (85-58-5-2)                18     267       9     276     .593    150       -          57%
   32   SectionP (86-56-4-3)                  16     269       6     275     .602    149       -          65%
   32   cajunuahfan (87-57-2-3)               25     268       7     275     .600    149       1          61%
   34   mikeeddy19 (84-40-3-4)                10     262      11     273     .667    131       2          77%
   35   Mavsfan19 (86-56-2-4)                 12     266       0     266     .599    148       9          45%
   36   MavHockey14 (83-48-2-5)               13     258       1     259     .623    138      16          32%
   37   Manurespreader (72-46-3-4)             9     226       6     232     .603    125      43           8%
   38   MTUHuskies (59-42-2-1)                 9     182      17     199     .583    104      76           5%

The fight for the Jeff Sauer championship trophy starts up in less than two months.

Playoff Seeding
Due to this year’s expansive field, the top 32 players will make the playoffs. Matches are head-to-head, single elimination with snake seeding for bracket pairings (1 vs. 32, 2 vs. 31, etc.). Seeding and tie breakers are determined in the following manner based on regular season results:
1) Total Points (including bonus)
2) Points (excluding bonus)
3) Total Points earned during the final 2 (or 3, or 4, or…) weeks of the WCHA regular season including bonuses until the tie is broken. Basically the “hotter” player down the stretch is favored.

Playoff Rounds
o First round will be based on the Friday, March 8 WCHA Quarterfinal playoff games with bonuses (4 games total, field reduced from 32 to 16).
o Second round will be based on the Saturday, March 9 WCHA Quarterfinal playoff games with bonuses (4 games total, field reduced from 16 to 8)
o Quarterfinals will be based on the Friday, March 15 WCHA Semifinal playoff games with bonuses (2 games total, field reduced from 8 to 4).
o Semifinals will be based on the Saturday, March 16 WCHA Semifinal playoff games with bonuses (2 games total, field reduced from 4 to 2).
o The championship matchup will be based on the WCHA Championship game on March 23 plus bonuses.

Scoring
o Same as the regular season other than games won’t end in a tie so 3 pts for a win, 0 pts for a loss.
o 2-3 bonus questions for each round worth 1-5 points.
o Ties go to the higher seed.

Good luck!
 
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