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WCHA 2020-21: We Can Do Better than Two Bids and Eight Teams Exiting

manurespreader said:
I'm sure that's true but what if a team wins the league and a bid and then get Covid?

i'm also wondering, will everyone have the same number of games or is it going to be a percentage deal.
Click to expand...

As planned right now with all of the scheduled updates listed on the WCHA website, all 8 teams will play 14 games unless their are any future cancellations.
 
I think there's not much argument that Ferris will go to Mankato for the first round. Less certain but likely that UAH goes to BG.

From there the jumble begins. I can see any combination of opponent and location for the remaining Tech, NMU, LSSU, and Bemidji. You'd have to favor the Lakers and Beavers as the home ice teams with the remaining scheduled games, but even that doesn't firm it up. Any unexpected points by UAH or Ferris or points dropped by the Mavericks will be a huge factor.

Sufficient to say this will be an important weekend for scoreboard watching.
 
Just par for the course in this crazy 2020-21 season, Mankato and Bemidji face off tonight in another odd Thursday night game. If Mankato wins, they get to skate the MacNaughton.

However, if Bemidji wins, things get a whole lot more interesting. Because of how far behind the Beavers are in conference games played, they could go from 6th place to WCHA champions in just 11 days! BSU has already played MSU four times and the Beavers are trending in the right direction having been shut out in the opening game 0-5, losing the next two 4-5 and 1-1 in a shootout before trouncing the Mavs 4-1 during their most recent meeting.

This series is home / home with the first game in Mankato so you know the Mavs will will want to use whatever home ice advantage they might have and lock up the Cup tonight. If the Beavers can take at least 5 pts from Mankato this weekend, they control their own destiny to get a share of the Cup. Bemidji has four other remaining games against UAH and LSSU (March 2,3,6,7 all at home) so other than a brutal week of games packed together, BSU running the table with six wins is not that much of a stretch.
 
You might not have seen Tom Serratore go off on the refs on the ice after the game but apparently, he was very upset by the way Mankato had run a pick to get free and score the winning goal and how the refs knew it was a pick and did nothing about it. But I don't think that's the whole story. As you might be aware Bemidji is expert at slowing you down and playing good defense, and they did that during the game as did Mankato in a big way. The Refs it did seem decided to ignore almost all of it.
However, what seemed to me that happened was that on the first goal for Mankato, that they scored off a faceoff, they also ran a pick in order to get loose. I think that is the reason the coach was so angry. Two picks-- two goals, and they lose.
 
manurespreader said:
You might not have seen Tom Serratore go off on the refs on the ice after the game but apparently, he was very upset by the way Mankato had run a pick to get free and score the winning goal and how the refs knew it was a pick and did nothing about it. But I don't think that's the whole story. As you might be aware Bemidji is expert at slowing you down and playing good defense, and they did that during the game as did Mankato in a big way. The Refs it did seem decided to ignore almost all of it.
However, what seemed to me that happened was that on the first goal for Mankato, that they scored off a faceoff, they also ran a pick in order to get loose. I think that is the reason the coach was so angry. Two picks-- two goals, and they lose.
Click to expand...

To say nothing of the tripping call to Bemidji's goalie; that was one of the worst calls I've ever seen.
 
So looking at the current standings, Ferris can book their trip to Mankato for the playoffs, but in typical WCHA fashion everything else is still fluid with one week left to play. BSU could climb from 6th all the way to 2nd as they have FOUR games left to play while LSSU and UAH have THREE left to play. Everyone else except NMU (reg season complete) has TWO remaining.

According to my calcs, no one besides Mankato has locked up home ice but we know NMU and UAH will be on the road for the opening round.
[TABLE="border: 1, cellpadding: 1, width: 500"]
[TR]
[TD]TEAM[/TD]
[TD]POSSIBLE SEEDING[/TD]
[TD]POSSIBLE PTS[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]MSU[/TD]
[TD]#1 LOCKED[/TD]
[TD]33-39 pts[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]BGSU[/TD]
[TD]2-5[/TD]
[TD]24-27 pts[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]LSSU[/TD]
[TD]2-5[/TD]
[TD]20-29 pts *[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]MTU[/TD]
[TD]2-5[/TD]
[TD]20-26 pts[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]NMU[/TD]
[TD]5-6[/TD]
[TD]20 pts **[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]BSU[/TD]
[TD]2-6[/TD]
[TD]16-28 pts[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]UAH[/TD]
[TD]6-7[/TD]
[TD]08-17 pts[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]FERRIS[/TD]
[TD]#8 LOCKED[/TD]
[TD]03-06 pts[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

* Wins tiebreaker "B" w/ NMU
** Loses tiebreaker "B" to MTU & LSSU
Tie breaker "B" is win percentage
 
manurespreader said:
You might not have seen Tom Serratore go off on the refs on the ice after the game but apparently, he was very upset by the way Mankato had run a pick to get free and score the winning goal and how the refs knew it was a pick and did nothing about it. But I don't think that's the whole story. As you might be aware Bemidji is expert at slowing you down and playing good defense, and they did that during the game as did Mankato in a big way. The Refs it did seem decided to ignore almost all of it.
However, what seemed to me that happened was that on the first goal for Mankato, that they scored off a faceoff, they also ran a pick in order to get loose. I think that is the reason the coach was so angry. Two picks-- two goals, and they lose.
Click to expand...

I guess karma caught up on Saturday when the Mavs had two goals chalked off by replay review.
 
I'd rather have lost this weekend than have so many players hurt and out indefinitely. I wish the refs had called games closer and not allowed quite so many shenanigans.
 
UPDATED THROUGH 2/28/21
[TABLE="border: 1, cellpadding: 1, width: 500"]
[TR]
[TD]TEAM[/TD]
[TD]POSSIBLE SEEDING[/TD]
[TD]POSSIBLE PTS[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]MSU[/TD]
[TD]#1 LOCKED[/TD]
[TD]33-39 pts[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]BGSU[/TD]
[TD]2-3[/TD]
[TD]27 pts **[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]LSSU[/TD]
[TD]2-5[/TD]
[TD]20-29 pts [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]MTU[/TD]
[TD]3-5[/TD]
[TD]20-26 pts[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]NMU[/TD]
[TD]5-6[/TD]
[TD]20 pts *[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]BSU[/TD]
[TD]2-6[/TD]
[TD]16-28 pts[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]UAH[/TD]
[TD]#7 LOCKED[/TD]
[TD]08-14 pts[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]FERRIS[/TD]
[TD]#8 LOCKED[/TD]
[TD]03-06 pts[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

FIRST ROUND MATCH-UPS
FERRIS at MANKATO
T.B.D. at BGSU

NMU at T.B.D.
UAH at T.B.D.
NMU at T.B.D.

* NMU loses tiebreaker "B" to MTU and LSSU; Tie breaker "B" is win percentage
** BGSU can not finish lower than 3rd; LSSU & BSU will split 6 potential pts between them (games 3/2-3/3), only one of those two teams can potentially pass BGSU
 
manurespreader said:
I'd rather have lost this weekend than have so many players hurt and out indefinitely. I wish the refs had called games closer and not allowed quite so many shenanigans.
Click to expand...

I'm not sure what games you're referencing, but I thought the officiating in the msu/bsu series was atrocious. I agree that the penalty call on the goalie was asinine. I can MAYBE understand what the ref was looking at, but at best it was a stretch. They were letting pick plays go all night on Thursday, so it's not a surprise they didn't call the one on the gwg. They also called 3 icing on msu when the msu clearly won the race to the puck.

On Saturday, it was one of those games where you felt for the players because you never knew what was and wasn't going to be called.

Earlier this year people were talking about hoping the ccha would call a tighter game so the action moved better. This series was example #1 of what refs need to avoid in my mind .
 
UPDATED THROUGH 3/3/21 [TABLE="border: 1, cellpadding: 1, width: 500"]
[TR]
[TD]TEAM[/TD]
[TD]POSSIBLE SEEDING[/TD]
[TD]POSSIBLE PTS[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]MSU[/TD]
[TD]#1 LOCKED[/TD]
[TD]33-39 pts[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]BGSU[/TD]
[TD]2-3[/TD]
[TD]27 pts[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]LSSU[/TD]
[TD]2-4[/TD]
[TD]24-27 pts **[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]MTU[/TD]
[TD]3-5[/TD]
[TD]20-26 pts *[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]NMU[/TD]
[TD]5-6[/TD]
[TD]20 pts[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]BSU[/TD]
[TD]4-6[/TD]
[TD]18-24 pts ***[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]UAH[/TD]
[TD]#7 LOCKED[/TD]
[TD]08-14 pts[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]FERRIS[/TD]
[TD]#8 LOCKED[/TD]
[TD]03-06 pts[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
FIRST ROUND MATCH-UPS
FERRIS at MANKATO
T.B.D. at BGSU
T.B.D. at LSSU
MTU
BSU
NMU at T.B.D.
UAH at T.B.D.

* MTU holds tie breaker "B" (win percentage) over NMU
** If LSSU wins their final game in regulation, they hold the tie breaker "B" (win percentage) over BGSU
*** LSSU would hold tie breaker "C" (wins in regulation) over BSU
 
Last edited:
LSSULaker889294 said:
Incorrect. BSU would have a higher winning percentage over LSSU if the they sweep UAH and LSSU loses to FSU in regulation. Beavers would be 8-5-1 and Lakers would be 8-6-0. Bemidji would win tiebreaker B.
Click to expand...

If Bemidji is 8-5-1 and Lake State is 8-6-0, how would they be tied?
 
Last edited:
LSSULaker889294 said:
BSU would have a higher winning percentage over LSSU if the they sweep UAH and LSSU loses to FSU in regulation. Beavers would be 8-5-1 and Lakers would be 8-6-0. Bemidji would win tiebreaker B.
Click to expand...
It my understanding that tie breaker "B" is simply total wins divided by total games, meaning both teams would have identical 0.571. But I could be wrong.
John J. MacInnes said:
If Bemidji is 8-5-1 and Lake State is 8-6-0, how would they be tied?
Click to expand...
They could be tied on pts even with different records. That's because of all the goofy rules the WCHA has about awarding conference points for OT, shootouts, etc. A "win" (some of which are officially counted as ties) is not always worth 3 pts in the WCHA standings. It matters HOW / WHEN you win. Stupid in my opinion, but that is how the WCHA does it. LSSU is currently 2-2 in OT and Bemidji is 3-2 in OT.
 
Last edited:
lakersparty said:
Is the CCHA going to get rid of all of this math? Because if it is, I am all for it.
Click to expand...

No idea. "Winning percentage" has to be one of the stupidest metrics in this system. Head-to-head, league wins, league losses would quickly and easily settle most tie-breakers. Makes winning in regulation even more important.

*And I'm not just saying this because it would benefit any team this season. I can't say I've heard the "winning percentage" as a tie breaker before this year.
 
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