Re: WCHA 2014-15: Semi-colons make things seem important
overall I agree too, not sure Ferris really belongs that high but not sure how to shuffle things...
He had Ferris much lower (below UAH!) last week, which I thought then was a bit of an overreaction. In some ways, I don't guess that it matters where you rank Alaska. This makes 5-7 be the goalie-driven teams (if you have Bemidji rated above Northern, which I don't). UAH would clearly be #7 there considering the scoring differential, and then the Ferris offense slightly out-ticks the Northern one. [See
http://collegehockeystats.net/1415/overallstats/wcham for details, but it's currently 2.43 for Ferris to 2.20 for Northern.]
To do anything much fancier than that requires some analysis of GF/GA trends based on relative competition, etc. I mean, it's telling that Bitzer's shutouts are against UAH, yeah? He's good, but is he that good?
UAH has been shut out by BG's Nell (20 SOG), LSSU's Defiel (26), Alaska's Jones (14), and twice by that dirty Beaver (18 and 24). UAH has been outshot 604-320 in conference play, so those five shutouts come on 102 of those shots, or just 32% of all Charger shots on net (and 20.4 SOG/GM). Is that unusual? Well, UAH averages exactly 20.0 SOGF/GM, so it's not as if the teams getting shutouts are just strangling the UAH offense. But Defiel isn't any great shakes so far (53 GA to Bitzer's 13), and Jones's GAA/SV% are pretty pedestrian overall and toward the bad end of the WCHA.
But what about Bitzer? His eight WCHA starts are against v Alaska (1 GA on 27 SOG in the beginning of UAF's swoon after their hot start), @ Mankato (5 GA on 32 SOG), v Tech (2 GA on 22SOG), @ BG (2 GA on 24 SOG), v NMU (2 GA on 22 SOG, then 1 GA on 20 SOG) when Dahlström was out, then the 18- and 24-SV shutouts against UAH. Do I view these stats with Bemidji-hating eyes? Yes. The Tech and BG starts are good for any goalie.
I think that it's easier to be hot for short periods than for the whole season, and yes, this comment could be applied to Carmine Guerriero.
I hate Bemidji.
GFM