WCHA 2010 Predictions Thread

[pelt slammer]

Re: WCHA 2010 Predictions Thread

1-3: North Dakota, Wisconsin, Denver,
4-6: Minnesota, Minnesota-Duluth, Colorado College
7-9: St. Cloud State, Nebraska-Omaha, Bemidji State
10-12: Tech, Alaska-Anchorage, MSU Mankato

you honestly don't know what the heck you are talking about..... how could you even justify SCSU not being in the top 5 and Minnesota being there. Minnesota doesn't have a team this year, and SCSU didn't really lose anyone but the surfer dude. do some more research so you don't look like a tard.

GO SCSU!!!

 

[state of hockey]

Re: WCHA 2010 Predictions Thread

1-3: North Dakota, Wisconsin, Denver,
4-6: Minnesota, Minnesota-Duluth, Colorado College
7-9: St. Cloud State, Nebraska-Omaha, Bemidji State
10-12: Tech, Alaska-Anchorage, MSU Mankato

I'd switch SCSU and Wisconsin, and maybe BSU and Minnesota.

 

[bigblue_dl]

Re: WCHA 2010 Predictions Thread

you honestly don't know what the heck you are talking about..... how could you even justify SCSU not being in the top 5 and Minnesota being there. Minnesota doesn't have a team this year, and SCSU didn't really lose anyone but the surfer dude. do some more research so you don't look like a tard.

GO SCSU!!!

Nice use of the very technical term "tard".

 

[Slap Shot]

Im surprised you have the Gophers in 4th. I think most people are picking them alot lower.

7 out of 10.

 

[First Time Long Time]

Re: WCHA 2010 Predictions Thread

Yes UMD may have an easier schedule but I think they need more balanced scoring to be able to sustain a top spot. I also wonder about their goaltending with Reiter and Crandall.

 

[altazo]

Re: WCHA 2010 Predictions Thread

I think a lot of you may be underestimating Nebraska-Omaha. I've always felt the WCHA has been the toughest conference top to bottom, but you could make an argument that the top half of the CCHA is on par with the top half of the W. Over the last 10 years, UNO has generally been in that top half. Plus, the only coach I can think of off the top of my head that I would take over Dean Blais if I could have anyone and I was starting a D1 program would be Jerry York (and mayyybe Red Berenson, just 'cause he's so old school and because of his ties to the USDT program.) It'll be inetersting...

It means nothing, but what the heck:

1- SCSU
2- UND
3- UMD
4- UNO
5- UM
6- UW
7- CC
8- DU
9- BSU
10- AA
11- MSU
12- MTU

 

[sfo19]

Re: WCHA 2010 Predictions Thread

This is mostly a cut and paste from what I wrote on a CC board:

1 UND

The Sioux will be a top 5 team in the pre-season national rankings. They were better than their 5th place league finish last year and lost less than any other team in the league. They also have some great recruits.

2/3 UMD
Duluth is another team that finished in the top half of the standings last year and they only lose 3 significant contributors from that team.

2/3 SCSU
Ditto for SCSU – they finished in the top half and only lose 3 significant contributors. They should pick up where they left off last season.

4/5 CC
While they lost a significant number of contributors from last year’s team, they have quite a bit of talent that will be able to make more substantial contributions. I think their top line will be one of the best in the league, and their 2nd and third lines will have players who are proven scorers at this level. The PP should be very good, but it may take time to replace all of the penalty killers and the large number of shutdown defensive minutes Fredheim and Prosser played. McDermott and Schwartz should make an immediate impact, while Krushelnyski and Eveland should be fully ready to step in as needed.

4/5 DU
Ditto for what I wrote for CC. They lost even more than the Tigers did (4 of their top 5 scorers and their #1 goalie), but they have guys on the roster who can step into larger roles and contribute. They also have some very dynamic forwards coming in who will give the Tigers fits over the next few years. Some may predict a rough year for Denver, but all 5 teams below them have much larger issues to resolve.

6 Minnesota

The Gophers have a bunch of players who were highly touted recruits who haven’t made as much of an impact as expected. That worries me – if guys like Patrick White get anywhere close to the level that was anticipated, they’ll be a tough team to play. Then again, other than Jacob Cepis (who is incredibly fun to watch!) they really don’t have a lot of proven talent at the WCHA level. If the Gophers are able to pull it together and win all 8 games against weak clustermates UW and MTU, then they’ll challenge for home ice in the standings and will be tough to beat in the playoffs. EDIT – after writing this two more players left – Birkholz and Leddy. Leddy was a highly regarded freshman, and Birkholz was a 3/4th liner as a freshman, so neither should be a huge loss. However, they were regular players who will be difficult to replace this late in the off-season.

7 MSU-Mankato

A mediocre team last year, they lost a lot of their top players. Only 3 of their top 8 scorers return – and a defenseman (Ben Youds) was their leading scorer last year! With only a few dangerous scorers, I have a hard time seeing how they’ll improve significantly.

8/9/10 UW
Yes, they played in the National Championship game last year – but look at what they lost! They lost 7 of their 8 top scorers, including the top 4! They return only 4 of their top 14 scorers - #5, #9, #10, and #13. They lost 3 of their 6 regular defensemen. They lost 8 of their regular 12 forwards. They’ll basically be playing 3 defensemen with WCHA experience, and 4 regular forwards from last year plus 2 who couldn’t regularly crack the lineup. Even with quite a few very talented players coming in, it’s tough to win in the WCHA with half your lineup as freshmen.

8/9/10 UAA

Kevin Clark scored 23 goals and 37 points as a senior – the next highest totals were 9g and 26 points. The Seawolves also lost both of their goaltenders from last year. With not much scoring coming back and a freshman goalie behind modest talent at best, it’ll be another very long season in Anchorage.

8/9/10 MTU

MTU was by far the worst team in the league last year with a 4-24 record in league play. They lost their games by an average score of 4-2. They only return 2 forwards who can be expected to score regularly – all of the remaining forwards COMBINED scored 16 goals in 36 games. That’s just appallingly bad. I can’t see how they’ll find a way to improve.

I don’t know much about the two new teams in the league – Bemidji State University and the University of Nebraska-Omaha. BSU has made the NCAAs 3 years in the last 5 and won a few games there. They also return their top 5 scorers, both goalies, and lose only 2 F and 2 D. UNO finished 6th of 12 teams in the CCHA, and return quite a bit from that team. They have depth in their scoring and bring in some high scoring USHL forwards. Dean Blais returns to the WCHA as their coach, and we know what he did at UND. I place both teams somewhere in with the 2-5 teams, most likely with CC and DU. Both UNO and BSU are in the killer cluster with SCSU and UND, which should hurt their league records a bit. So, here’s a cut at the final standings, which don’t match the team strengths I listed above due to the difference in cluster strength – UMD benefits and BSU, SCSU, UNO, and UND all take a hit:

1. UMD
2. UND
3. SCSU
4. CC
5. DU
6. BSU
7. UNO
8. MN
9. MSU-M
10. UW
11. MTU
12. UAA

Only posting to clarify that UND didn't finish 5th. We tied for 4th and won the tiebreaker. Yeah i'm nitpicky....so what.

 

[moose97]

Re: WCHA 2010 Predictions Thread

I think a lot of you may be underestimating Nebraska-Omaha. I've always felt the WCHA has been the toughest conference top to bottom, but you could make an argument that the top half of the CCHA is on par with the top half of the W. Over the last 10 years, UNO has generally been in that top half. Plus, the only coach I can think of off the top of my head that I would take over Dean Blais if I could have anyone and I was starting a D1 program would be Jerry York (and mayyybe Red Berenson, just 'cause he's so old school and because of his ties to the USDT program.) It'll be inetersting...

I generally agree that UNO is on the way up, but I can't let this go - The Mav's have finished in the top-6 exactly 6 times since joining the CCHA in '99-'00, and only once in the last three years (last years #6). Half of those six came in a three year stretch from '04-'05 to '06-'07. How is that "generally" in the top half?

 

[4four4]

Re: WCHA 2010 Predictions Thread

you honestly don't know what the heck you are talking about..... how could you even justify SCSU not being in the top 5 and Minnesota being there. Minnesota doesn't have a team this year, and SCSU didn't really lose anyone but the surfer dude. do some more research so you don't look like a tard.

GO SCSU!!!

Hey weiner I don't see your predictions in the thread. How can we take you seriously when you don't even predict anything.

 

[4four4]

Re: WCHA 2010 Predictions Thread

4/5 CC
While they lost a significant number of contributors from last year’s team, they have quite a bit of talent that will be able to make more substantial contributions. I think their top line will be one of the best in the league, and their 2nd and third lines will have players who are proven scorers at this level. The PP should be very good, but it may take time to replace all of the penalty killers and the large number of shutdown defensive minutes Fredheim and Prosser played. McDermott and Schwartz should make an immediate impact, while Krushelnyski and Eveland should be fully ready to step in as needed.

Would you consider this prediction to be a homer pick?

 

[altazo]

Re: WCHA 2010 Predictions Thread

I generally agree that UNO is on the way up, but I can't let this go - The Mav's have finished in the top-6 exactly 6 times since joining the CCHA in '99-'00, and only once in the last three years (last years #6). Half of those six came in a three year stretch from '04-'05 to '06-'07. How is that "generally" in the top half?

I guess your right, I don't have past statistics in front of me.

But, finishing in the top half of arguably one of the top two leagues in the country more than half of the years that the program has been in existence is a pretty impressive feat if you ask me. No?

 

[4four4]

Re: WCHA 2010 Predictions Thread

I guess your right, I don't have past statistics in front of me.

But, finishing in the top half of arguably one of the top two leagues in the country more than half of the years that the program has been in existence is a pretty impressive feat if you ask me. No?

It will be more impressive if they can do that in the WCHA.

 

[FadeToBlack&Gold]

Re: WCHA 2010 Predictions Thread

I guess your right, I don't have past statistics in front of me.

But, finishing in the top half of arguably one of the top two leagues in the country more than half of the years that the program has been in existence is a pretty impressive feat if you ask me. No?

Whether you think it's justified or not, you're going to find that most fans of WCHA teams will disagree with your assessment that the entire top half of the CCHA has been equivalent in talent and success to the top half of the WCHA, especially over the past decade. Call it arrogance or whatever, but that's the way it is around here.

In addition (and correct me if I'm wrong), when UNO finished in the top half of the CCHA, it was always in seeds 4-6, right? Based on that, you're going to have a tough time convincing most of the WCHA crowd that you'll finish in the Top 6 in your first year in this conference. I do, however, expect Blais to get the most out of what he has, and I doubt the knowledgeable UNO fans will be too disappointed with what their team will accomplish in their first WCHA campaign.

 

[The Rube]

Re: WCHA 2010 Predictions Thread

Top to bottom, the WCHA is the toughest (read: not necessarily the best) conference in the last decade. HE is right up there. CCHA is probably a close third to HE, but far from WCHA, if that makes sense.

 

[Dude Love]

Re: WCHA 2010 Predictions Thread

how could you even justify SCSU not being in the top 5 and Minnesota being there

Booze. Lots of booze.

 

[moose97]

Re: WCHA 2010 Predictions Thread

I guess your right, I don't have past statistics in front of me.

Just FYI, the CHHA is your friend...

 

[altazo]

Re: WCHA 2010 Predictions Thread

Top to bottom, the WCHA is the toughest (read: not necessarily the best) conference in the last decade. HE is right up there. CCHA is probably a close third to HE, but far from WCHA, if that makes sense.

Yeah, that's what I said. No need to bold font it.

And while a couple of the very best programs in the land live in HE, I've always thought that conference is a little too top heavy...

75,000 posts? Really?

 

[Rich]

Re: WCHA 2010 Predictions Thread

Would you consider this prediction to be a homer pick?

I can see how many people would, but I don't. I begin my work using an algorithm that I've developed over the past 15 years of making these predictions, and it takes into account the #games returning at each position, F # points and goals returning, %F goals and pts. returning, depth of scoring, and a half dozen other variables. There were some pretty obvious trends in the numbers that would be obvious to any passing observer of the WCHA - SCSU, UMD, and UND were way ahead as the top 3. No surprise there. Mankato, UAA, and MTU were at the bottom. No surprise there either. So I think that there's no question to anyone who knows anything about the league that CC, DU, MN, and UW will be picked to be in the middle.
Now, when I ran the numbers (and just looked at what they lost), UW clearly was well below that middle group - they actually were placed down with MTU, Mankato, and UAA. However, they're such an anomaly that I didn't put much weight in the numbers. I spent a lot of time looking at them in detail, and I decided that the numbers are actually pretty reasonable - therefore the middle group becomes CC, DU, and MN. So just stopping there I think you can see that CC at somewhere from 4-6 is justified by the process I used. You can certainly disagree and say that the process is messed up and come up with a different rating, but they're there simply because the numbers put them there. What numbers?
Just for one example, they were high in terms of a statistic I have called "proven WCHA scorers". This represents the amount of scorers who meet certain criteria from last season. This metric looked like this:
SCSU - 8
UND - 8
UMD - 6
CC - 6
MN - 4
DU - 4
UW - 3
MTU - 3
MSU-M - 2
UAA - 2

Another metric has to do with returning games played by defensemen - again, CC only lost 2 defensemen from last year's team so they finished high there. They were very high for returning goaltenders. They were low (6th) on a stat that I have labeled "scoring explosiveness". And so on.

In the end, I think that any ranking that makes any justifiable sense is going to have a clear top 3 (UND, SCSU, UMD), a clear bottom (UAA, MTU, and MSU-M), and a clear middle (MN, DU, CC). UW is an anomaly - it'll be interesting to see how they do with so many freshmen in the lineup. I fall into the camp that says that says that even though they have a lot of very talented freshmen coming in, freshmen take time to adjust to playing at this level. I think they'll struggle. For that reason, I think that 4-6 is a reasonable place for CC to fall, and I think that MN is just a hair back from CC and DU. Therefore - 4/5. If you're going to make a "homer" accusation for that ranking, I think that the justification has to be that they should be ranked 6th or 7th behind MN and/or UW, and with how close the middle of the WCHA is each year, I think that's a pretty small distinction.

I certainly could be wrong, but I think that CC's ranking like all the others was thouroughly considered according to the available data. However, things always happen that make all of these pre-season rankings - thoroughly considered or not - look pretty stupid when the season's over.

 

[SJHovey]

Re: WCHA 2010 Predictions Thread

Yeah, that's what I said. No need to bold font it.

And while a couple of the very best programs in the land live in HE, I've always thought that conference is a little too top heavy...

75,000 posts? Really?

Not yet. You're going to have to give Brent until noon.

You may very well be right that WCHA fans, including myself, have underestimated UNO.

I predicted they'd finish 8th, which would put them just under .500 in the league schedule if the conference plays out as it has in the past.

UNO has finished 15 games under .500 in CCHA play in the past decade, 2 games under in the last 5 years, and 6 games under in the past 3 years (which would include this season's seniors). I just concluded, as have others, that the WCHA has been slightly stronger than the CCHA top to bottom.

Blais is certainly one of the top coaches in the land and if anyone can lead the Mavs to a surprise finish, it'll be Dean. I also think this will be a bit of a down year for the WCHA with all the defections, so UNO and BSU have that going for them as well.

Edit: I knew there was one more reason for my ranking. UNO has also drawn a pretty tough cluster, with SCSU and UND considered two of the top 3 teams going into the season. They have to play the 3rd, UMD, on the road, as well as Minnesota, no easy task. Finally, they have to go to UAA, which as UNO certainly knows, is no easy trip.

 

[Flashy Man]

Re: WCHA 2010 Predictions Thread

T8/9/10 MTU

MTU was by far the worst team in the league last year with a 4-24 record in league play. They lost their games by an average score of 4-2. They only return 2 forwards who can be expected to score regularly – all of the remaining forwards COMBINED scored 16 goals in 36 games. That’s just appallingly bad. I can’t see how they’ll find a way to improve.

This about the same story heading into 2006-2007 where Tech finished 7-25-6 the previous season and then jumped to 18-17-5. And I would venture to say Olson and Baker are much stronger scorers than Helminen and Shelast were. The the rest of the returning players only managed 20 goals in 38 games in 2005-2006. I feel the story this season, especially with a jump start of an extra 5 games on everyone could lead to a finish in the 6-8 area. The team has removed a distraction (Soley) and upgraded production with the entrance of Furne and Holmberg and Gordic's return after a medical redshirt season.