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Utica College Pioneers 2011-2012

Re: Utica College Pioneers 2011-2012

CARDS_rule_the_Burgh said:
Err... you're arguing with a retired Norwich University mathematics professor with a specialty in statistics about a statistics-based ranking formula. Just a friendly warning that you're probably not going to win that argument :)
Click to expand...
...like bringing a water pistol to put out a three alarm fire...
 
Re: Utica College Pioneers 2011-2012

NUProf said:
No, you are missing my point. The "stupid" that I am seeing are the emotional "but the ECAC West only plays the bottom of the SUNYAC, so their SOS is inflated, bleating". By ranked, I'm referring to the NCAA rankings of teams, not the rankings of teams via the beauty contest polls.

As a statistician, I think that KRACH has flaws and has been over stated in terms of its value for measuring strength of of schedule. (I provide an alternative on another site) My point about the number of NC games they have to play isn't to denigrate their schedules at all, but to attempt to explain to the person who is downgrading them why, of necessity, the ECAC West plays teams at the bottom of the SUNYAC. They have too many NC games to play, and Oswego and Plattsburgh don't have enough spots to fill all the NC games that the ECAC W has to play.

I'm on your side - what I find stupid are the arguments against the strength of the ECAC West.

We would all love to see transparency in the selection process, but it won't happen because of the way the NCAA structures all DIII sports. The worst thing in all this is that a conference with a valid claim to legitimacy is left out, but if they could convince two schools to join them, they would (after a waiting period) achieve legitimacy, even if what happened was the LVC and Scranton returned to NCAA play from the ACHA, and proceeded to lose all their games except when they played each other.
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Interesting post, thank you. Sorry that I misinterpreted your earlier one.

To give credit where it's due all the way around, Oswego scheduled the W six times this season. So, they didn't duck anyone, and the W had the opportunity to play the SUNYAC's (arguably) best program. (Those were all good match-ups on paper, even as OSU went 4-2, losing only to Neumann and Utica. ;)) And, of course, those games v. the Lakers upped the W's SOS more than any number of tilts against a Geneseo/Brockport/Cortland, etc. could ever have.

I'm curious to see your alternative formula for ranking the teams. Do you have a link handy? I wasn't aware that the NCAA, as a entity, ranked teams without any outside help, either. I'm fairly skeptical about that endeavor passing the "sniff-test".

I'd be happy with any objective measure being employed, within broad limits. As you stated in your last paragraph, it's ridiculously arbitrary to assign legitimacy to any conference based on a body-count alone... To paraphrase what you wrote: if the W added two hapless programs, that would make them worthy of an AQ..? Please.

D-1 has no such rules in place; if you make it via the PWR, you make it... Doesn't matter a whit if you're in a 10-team league or playing as an independent. Those big, public, diploma-factories are actually more egalitarian in this regard than the D-3 bastions of truth and goodness. Go figger! :D
 
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Re: Utica College Pioneers 2011-2012

Thanks for taking the time, PSU. I will point out a couple of things, though...

Pretty sure that a team's SOS is calculated minus the H2H games played, so that increases the SUNYAC's winning %, unless you've accounted for that already. (I'm guessing you had better things to do.) And Castleton and Curry were on the W's docket this year, too, both of them likely tournament teams.

If you look at the teams with the best SOSs, you are always going to notice that they played a significant number of quality opponents, and considerably more than has the average team. (Face it, everyone in D-3 is going to to play some cannon-fodder squads in the RS, too; that's a fact of life at this level.)

The KRACH argument, providing you accept it, obviates your post. There is nothing therein to be gained from beating weak teams, and much to be lost if one of them beats you. This metric is blind to mere opinion, and is designed to reward wins against quality opposition, period. (...And the W has 4 teams in the KRACH top-eight, did I mention that already?)

In closing, I'm not saying that a UC is definitely among the 11 best D-3 teams right now... I am just saying that they should certainly be in the conversation if this matter was anything approaching equitable. The fact that Utica is miles away from consideration speaks volumes about how abysmal the current process is.
 
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Re: Utica College Pioneers 2011-2012

Fishman'81 said:
Interesting post, thank you. Sorry that I misinterpreted your earlier one.

To give credit where it's due all the way around, Oswego scheduled the W six times this season. So, they didn't duck anyone, and the W had the opportunity to play the SUNYAC's (arguably) best program. (Those were all good match-ups on paper, even as OSU went 4-2, losing only to Neumann and Utica. ;)) And, of course, those games v. the Lakers upped the W's SOS more than any number of tilts against a Geneseo/Brockport/Cortland, etc. could ever have.

I'm curious to see your alternative formula for ranking the teams. Do you have a link handy? I wasn't aware that the NCAA, as a entity, ranked teams without any outside help, either. I'm fairly skeptical about that endeavor passing the "sniff-test".

I'd be happy with any objective measure being employed, within broad limits. As you stated in your last paragraph, it's ridiculously arbitrary to assign legitimacy to any conference based on a body-count alone... To paraphrase what you wrote: if the W added two hapless programs, that would make them worthy of an AQ..? Please.

D-1 has no such rules in place; if you make it via the PWR, you make it... Doesn't matter a whit if you're in a 10-team league or playing as an independent. Those big, public, diploma-factories are actually more egalitarian in this regard than the D-3 bastions of truth and goodness. Go figger! :D
Click to expand...

I really shouldn't give a direct link to a competing site - but there is another website that provides extensive D3hockey information. The computer rankings that you find there are mine.
 
Re: Utica College Pioneers 2011-2012

NUProf said:
I really shouldn't give a direct link to a competing site - but there is another website that provides extensive D3hockey information. The computer rankings that you find there are mine.
Click to expand...

"competing site", IMO, they are Complementary a case of "strength in numbers" supporting the great mathematical proof that the "'The whole is greater than the sum of its parts." ;)
 
Re: Utica College Pioneers 2011-2012

Please Lord tell me you understand that DI still has autobirths and size of a conference DOES matter!?!?!?

You are trying to compare putting teams in a Division that allows 30+ games (giving a lot more NC games between top teams to be scheduled, solitifying a true ranking). A playoff system that allows 10 (not 3) At-Large bids. If DIII had 10 at large bids 2 if not 3 ECAC West teams would be in (maybe even 4).

Utica is off the radar because...
- there are only 3 at large bids
- their numbers don't beat out other teams ahead of them
- 4-7-2 vs probably ranked teams 7-4-2 and we are talking about Utica
- Elmira is 6-4-1 (hense they are above Utica) and probably looking at the last pool c spot is everyone wins thats suppose to.

You really have to be above .500 vs ranked opponents to be in the real running. Do they have an outside shot? If the stars align right and the right people win and the right people lose sure. I know you're trying to hold on to that last glimmer of hope, which I would hope the team is as well.
 
Re: Utica College Pioneers 2011-2012

Fishman'81 said:
I'd be happy with any objective measure being employed, within broad limits. As you stated in your last paragraph, it's ridiculously arbitrary to assign legitimacy to any conference based on a body-count alone... To paraphrase what you wrote: if the W added two hapless programs, that would make them worthy of an AQ..? Please.
Click to expand...

It really is a shame that the West doesn't have an autobid considering the quality and strength of teams year in and year out. I can't see them adding any "hapless" teams either. Skidmore and Hamilton are probably two of the most likely candidates to be in the ECAC-W considering they are in NY state. But if you take into account that the two programs have combined for one 16+ win season since 98-99 playing in much weaker conferences (overall), they'd have no reason to want to become the new Lebanon Valley's of the ECAC-W. Plus they'd both have to agree to move so they aren't leaving a conference with an autobid for one that doesn't. I would be a fan of this, though.

Fishman'81 said:
To give credit where it's due all the way around, Oswego scheduled the W six times this season. So, they didn't duck anyone, and the W had the opportunity to play the SUNYAC's (arguably) best program. (Those were all good match-ups on paper, even as OSU went 4-2, losing only to Neumann and Utica. ;))
Click to expand...

Oswego returned the favor against Utica this season ;). And if you take their aggregate goals ala soccer, well ;) ;)
 
nysportsfan29 said:
It really is a shame that the West doesn't have an autobid considering the quality and strength of teams year in and year out. I can't see them adding any "hapless" teams either. Skidmore and Hamilton are probably two of the most likely candidates to be in the ECAC-W considering they are in NY state. But if you take into account that the two programs have combined for one 16+ win season since 98-99 playing in much weaker conferences (overall), they'd have no reason to want to become the new Lebanon Valley's of the ECAC-W. Plus they'd both have to agree to move so they aren't leaving a conference with an autobid for one that doesn't. I would be a fan of this, though.



Oswego returned the favor against Utica this season ;). And if you take their aggregate goals ala soccer, well ;) ;)
Click to expand...

They only need one more team, nazareth is joining the ecac-west.
 
Re: Utica College Pioneers 2011-2012

OSU2010 said:
They only need one more team, nazareth is joining the ecac-west.
Click to expand...

Completely forgot about that. Naz is only 15 minutes from my parents house in ROC so it will be cool to see some DIII hockey that close to home when I go back to visit. Where is the rink they'll be playing at?

Perhaps some of the ECAC-W posters can put together a "fund" and send it to Hamilton in exchange for their membership in the West?
 
Re: Utica College Pioneers 2011-2012

OSU2010 said:
They only need one more team, nazareth is joining the ecac-west.
Click to expand...

Pat Harrington the Head Coach of the SUNY Canton Men’s Lacrosse team is a 2002 graduate of Nazareth College, Lacrosse will be their first "new" varsity sport, maybe someone can put a bug in his ear that is Alma Mater is looking for another team for their ice hockey AQ.

As a side note, SUNY Canton Kangaroos men's ice hockey team played its inaugural game at Roos House arena against former ECAC-West's LVC, defeating them 8-0.

Page 4 of this document also offers some insight into Canton's current state.
 
Re: Utica College Pioneers 2011-2012

Fishman'81 said:
Interesting post, thank you. Sorry that I misinterpreted your earlier one.

To give credit where it's due all the way around, Oswego scheduled the W six times this season. So, they didn't duck anyone, and the W had the opportunity to play the SUNYAC's (arguably) best program. (Those were all good match-ups on paper, even as OSU went 4-2, losing only to Neumann and Utica. ;)) And, of course, those games v. the Lakers upped the W's SOS more than any number of tilts against a Geneseo/Brockport/Cortland, etc. could ever have.

I'm curious to see your alternative formula for ranking the teams. Do you have a link handy? I wasn't aware that the NCAA, as a entity, ranked teams without any outside help, either. I'm fairly skeptical about that endeavor passing the "sniff-test".

I'd be happy with any objective measure being employed, within broad limits. As you stated in your last paragraph, it's ridiculously arbitrary to assign legitimacy to any conference based on a body-count alone... To paraphrase what you wrote: if the W added two hapless programs, that would make them worthy of an AQ..? Please.

D-1 has no such rules in place; if you make it via the PWR, you make it... Doesn't matter a whit if you're in a 10-team league or playing as an independent. Those big, public, diploma-factories are actually more egalitarian in this regard than the D-3 bastions of truth and goodness. Go figger! :D
Click to expand...


If the ECAC-West were to add two 'hapless' programs, then yes it would make them 'worthy' of an AQ. Seven teams are needed for a conference to receive an auto-bid, regardless of how successful these seven teams are. 'Worthiness' is not defined by the quality of teams, but the quantity of teams in a given conference.

Please....



...and thank you! :-D
 
Re: Utica College Pioneers 2011-2012

Things might be going from bad to worse for Utica...Emery mentioned tonight on BTB that he was speaking with Paul Duffy (big wig in the ECAC DIII) and Manhatanville is discussing dropping its hockey program due to lack of funds....looks like the West might be looking for 2 more teams once again....
 
Re: Utica College Pioneers 2011-2012

PSUChamps2001 said:
Things might be going from bad to worse for Utica...Emery mentioned tonight on BTB that he was speaking with Paul Duffy (big wig in the ECAC DIII) and Manhatanville is discussing dropping its hockey program due to lack of funds....looks like the West might be looking for 2 more teams once again....
Click to expand...

And they are running out of colleges in Rochester.. Of course St John Fisher is about a mile from Nazareth.
 
Re: Utica College Pioneers 2011-2012

norm1909 said:
Pat Harrington the Head Coach of the SUNY Canton Men’s Lacrosse team is a 2002 graduate of Nazareth College, Lacrosse will be their first "new" varsity sport, maybe someone can put a bug in his ear that is Alma Mater is looking for another team for their ice hockey AQ.

As a side note, SUNY Canton Kangaroos men's ice hockey team played its inaugural game at Roos House arena against former ECAC-West's LVC, defeating them 8-0.

Page 4 of this document also offers some insight into Canton's current state.
Click to expand...
whats the capacity at that rink ?? and boy it looked like the joint was jumping,pun intended :D
 
PSUChamps2001 said:
Things might be going from bad to worse for Utica...Emery mentioned tonight on BTB that he was speaking with Paul Duffy (big wig in the ECAC DIII) and Manhatanville is discussing dropping its hockey program due to lack of funds....looks like the West might be looking for 2 more teams once again....
Click to expand...
Not sure who Mr.Duffy is but Rye play land and Manahattanville just renewed it's contract for another 6 years. From a very very trust worthy source.
 
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