US Foreign Policy 3.0: We're The Mets of International Diplomacy

[Deutsche Gopher Fan]

US military cuts aid to Egypt, redirects to Taiwan instead

 

[Kepler]

Seems like we are developing a new Axis of Evil. Roughly in order (clients in parens):

• Russia (Belarus, Kyrgystan, Tajikistan, Armenia, Kazakhstan, Serbia, the rightwing party in many western democracies)
• North Korea
• Iran (Syria, Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, Hamas in Palestine)
• Maybe Pakistan?
• Maaaaaaaaaaaybe China?

 

[French Rage]

[*]Russia (Belarus, Kyrgystan, Tajikistan, Armenia, Kazakhstan, Serbia, the rightwing party in many western democracies)
[*]North Korea
[*]Iran (Syria, Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, Hamas in Palestine)

So Moe and Larry are still there, but Shemp is back in after Curly filled in for him for awhile.

 

[Kepler]

It looks like the Nagorno-Karabakh war that started in 1917 is pretty much over. Azerbaijan won. The region was originally 95% ethnic Armenian -- by New Year's Day they will all have left -- 150,000 people put on waivers.

I'd like to say at least they accomplished this without genocide but, nope, turn out both sides have genocided the other over time because Caucasians play for keeps.

TIL, Azerbaijan is one of the few contiguous transcontinental nations:

Asia-Africa:

• Egypt

Asia-Europe:

• Azerbaijan
• Kazakhstan
• Russia
• Turkey

North America-South America:

• Panama (if you use the canal) or Colombia (if you use the Darien gap)

 

[Swansong]

Yeah, that is an awful situation. I feel for Armenia. They went to the Russians for help because the Soviets literally saved them from annihilation (solely to spite the Ottomans, one could argue, but that's neither here nor there at the moment) and they would have a hard time aligning with the US because Turkey. Russia had backstopped them for the last 20ish years of this conflict, but obviously that's no longer the case.

 

[Kepler]

The Russians did also cross-cut the regions ethnically, to keep them at each other's throats and not unifying to oppose their colonialism. A little lesson they picked up from the Brits.

 

[Kepler]

These as-sholes again.

The United States has urged Belgrade to pull its forces back from the border with Kosovo after detecting what it called an “unprecedented” Serbian military build-up.

Serbia has deployed sophisticated tanks and artillery near the frontier with Kosovo after deadly clashes erupted at a monastery in northern Kosovo last weekend, the White House warned on Friday.

The violence – in which a Kosovar police officer and three Serb gunmen were killed – marked one of the gravest escalations in tension for years between Serbia and the former breakaway province that is now Kosovo.

“We are monitoring a large Serbian military deployment along the border with Kosovo,” White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby told reporters.

“That includes an unprecedented staging of advanced Serbian artillery, tanks, mechanised infantry units. We believe that this is a very destabilising development,” he said.

“We are calling on Serbia to withdraw those forces from the border,” he added.

Countries invariably behind sketchy / destabilizing sh-t:

1. Russia
2. US
3. Iran
4. Israel
5. Saudi Arabia

North Korea doesn't count because they're a joke.

 

[FadeToBlack&Gold]

Oh, no question they are doing this to try and help Putin while also putting moves of their own on lost territory. We're talking about Serbia, FFS.

 

[Kepler]

This is a pretty big deal.

The Armenian parliament on Tuesday voted to sign up to the International Criminal Court (ICC), a development that is expected to further sour relations with the country's old ally Russia.

A chasm has opened up between the two countries, with Yerevan angry with the Kremlin over its perceived inaction in a long-standing confrontation between Armenia and fellow post-Soviet state Azerbaijan.

Like Swansong said, Russia was Armenia's protector for a long time. Armenia was even an original signatory of the Collective Security Treaty Organization, which was Russia's Loser's Club after the break of the CCCP and Warsaw Pact. In 1992, Armenia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan signed up to be Russia's b-tches as the CIS. Azerbaijan, Belarus, and Georgia joined in 1994. In 1999, Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan re-upped and in 2002 that became CSTO. In 1997, Georgia, Ukraine, Azerbaijan, and Moldova formed GUAM to protect themselves against Russia. Uzbekistan bounced around and wound up in CSTO.

The problem for Russia is they were so weak they could not protect CSTO member Armenia from being attacked by GUAM member Azerbaijan. So Armenia joining the ICC in order to bring suit against Azerbaijan for human rights abuses means they are thumbing their nose at Russia which hates the ICC because well duh.

Armenia, Georgia, Ukraine, and Moldova are all excellent opportunities for prying former subject powers / allies away from Russia. They might eventually all make sense for NATO.

 

[Swansong]

Yup. Russia is the Matt Gaetz of politics, except they do actually have nukes.

I feel pretty bad for Armenians here.

 

[Kepler]

Yup. Russia is the Matt Gaetz of politics, except they do actually have nukes.

I feel pretty bad for Armenians here.

Probably better off not in an enclave inside a hostile ethnostate. This is basically Dems fleeing red states on a highly operatic scale.

 

[Swansong]

The issue is that they are the only Christian enclave surrounded by enemies or near-enemies. To the west is Turkey who's already literally tried to exterminate them. To the east is Azerbaijan who they've been in a shooting war on and off for 25+ years. Iran, somehow, isn't much of an enemy and in fact has been generally positive to Armenia over the years (possibly as a bulwark against Turkey?), and to the north is Georgia, who's fairly lawless and doesn't have much of a strong central government on the national stage.

So siding with Russia was absolutely a defensible position for them, especially in the aftermath of Turkey joining NATO. But unfortunately, that's worked out rather poorly for everyone.

 

[Kepler]

The issue is that they are the only Christian enclave surrounded by enemies or near-enemies. To the west is Turkey who's already literally tried to exterminate them. To the east is Azerbaijan who they've been in a shooting war on and off for 25+ years. Iran, somehow, isn't much of an enemy and in fact has been generally positive to Armenia over the years (possibly as a bulwark against Turkey?), and to the north is Georgia, who's fairly lawless and doesn't have much of a strong central government on the national stage.

So siding with Russia was absolutely a defensible position for them, especially in the aftermath of Turkey joining NATO. But unfortunately, that's worked out rather poorly for everyone.

By "enclave" I meant the 150k Armenians stuck inside Azerbaijan, like Kalinigrad, not Armenia being in the towel-headed Caucuses.

And as for Armenia being alone, I thought Georgia was SUPER CHRISTIAN? Like so Christian they think even the Russian Orthodox, let alone the Whore of Babylon, are Satan?

Council of Chaldea maybe? It's one of the ones not as se-xy as Nicea but actually more important intellectually.

Edit: holy crap, it's complicated. Comparing the history of Georgian Orthodoxy to that of the other Christian sects is like comparing a ghetto fight to a High School Model UN.

 

[Swansong]

By "enclave" I meant the 150k Armenians stuck inside Azerbaijan, like Kalinigrad, not Armenia being in the towel-headed Caucuses.

And as for Armenia being alone, I thought Georgia was SUPER CHRISTIAN? Like so Christian they think even the Russian Orthodox, let alone the Whore of Babylon, are Satan?

Council of Chaldea maybe? It's one of the ones not as se-xy as Nicea but actually more important intellectually.

Edit: holy crap, it's complicated. Comparing the history of Georgian Orthodoxy to that of the other Christian sects is like comparing a ghetto fight to a High School Model UN.

Ohhhhhhh I see what you were saying. And yes, I agree. Those poor people need to consider moving.


And yeah, the entire caucasus - and that whole soft border of "christian country" vs. "muslim country" is really complicated and has been for millennia. Fun fact: Armenia is the oldest Christian nation in the world. They celebrated 1700 years of Christianity being their official religion when I visited in 2003.

 

[walrus]

Sounds like the mid east, specifically Israel is going to be at war after many missiles were launched, military base taken etc etc.
https://apnews.com/article/israel-pa...b5329284fc37d2

It is war, going to be brutal, Gaza is going to be a wasteland.

 

[rufus]

Thought Donnie had brought peace to the Middle East?

At least, that's what he told me.

 

[FadeToBlack&Gold]

No one can control Netan-yayhoo. He's been pushing and hoping for an excuse to wipe Palestine off the map.

 

[Kepler]

This could be Bibi's Gulf of Tonkin.

Hamas is as crazy as Likud. I assume the calculation is every dead Palestinian will create 2 more Hamas militants so, hey, net gain. Nice stewardship of your people.

• Hamas spokesperson Khaled Qadomi has told Al Jazeera that the group’s military operation is in response to all the atrocities the Palestinians have faced over the decades.
• “We want the international community to stop atrocities in Gaza, against Palestinian people, our holy sites like Al-Aqsa. All these things are the reason behind starting this battle,” he said.

• “This is the day of the greatest battle to end the last occupation on Earth,” Mohammed Deif, the Hamas military commander said, adding that 5,000 rockets were launched.
• “Everyone who has a gun should take it out. The time has come,” Deif said, according to reports.
• Hamas called on “the resistance fighters in the West Bank” as well as “our Arab and Islamic nations” to join the battle, in a statement posted on Telegram.

Israel is bombing the sh-t out of Gaza now. Per BBC, they struck a hospital which I'm sure was a key military installation.

US news networks being very, very careful to only give the Israeli side. Bombings are not "bombings" or "attacks," they are "actions" or "responses."

Saudis must be so p-ssed off. This puts them in a spot.

 

[Deutsche Gopher Fan]

I thought Israeli intelligence was supposed to be some of the best? Yikes

 

[bronconick]

I wouldn't be shocked if Netanyahu had some inkling something was coming hoping to use it to justify his goal of wiping out the Palestinians and/or consolidating power. He just massively underestimated the scale of the attack.