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US Foreign Policy 3.0: We're The Mets of International Diplomacy

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ISW on 6/27

A Russian missile strike hit a shopping mall in a residential area of Kremenchuk, Poltava Oblast on June 27, likely killing many civilians.[1] Ukrainian sources stated that over 1,000 civilians were inside the mall at the time of the strike, and officials are still clarifying the number of casualties.[2] The Kremenchuk strike follows a wider intensification of Russian missile strikes against Ukrainian infrastructure and civilian targets in recent days. Advisor to the Ukrainian Ministry of Internal Affairs Vadym Denisenko stated on June 26 that Russian forces have begun a campaign of massive and largely indiscriminate missile strikes against Ukrainian cities, which echoes statements made by an unnamed US defense official on June 27 that Russian forces are increasingly relying on artillery and missile strikes to advance operations in Ukraine.[3] As Russian forces continue to burn through their supply of high-precision weaponry, such attacks that cause substantial collateral civilian damage will likely escalate.[4]

Russian military authorities continue to seek ways to replenish their increasingly exhausted force capabilities without announcing general mobilization. An unnamed senior US defense official stated on June 27 that Russian forces are likely running low on senior military leaders and are relying more heavily on retired officers and reserves to replace officer casualties.[5] The UK Ministry of Defense similarly reported that Russian forces will likely rely heavily on reserve echelons, namely the Combat Army Reserve (BARS) and Human Mobilization Resource, in order to galvanize volunteer support and fill out the third battalion tactical group (BTG) within regular (and depleted) brigades.[6] As ISW has previously assessed, such reserves are unlikely to provide Russian forces with meaningful regeneration of force capabilities.

Key Takeaways:
  • Russian forces struck a shopping mall in Kremenchuk as part of a recent escalation in strikes against Ukrainian infrastructure and cities.
  • Russian forces made incremental advances southwest of Lysychansk near the T1302 Bakhmut-Lysychansk highway but have not entirely severed Ukrainian lines of communication into Bakhmut.
  • Russian forces made measured advances during offensive operations to the east of Bakhmut.
  • Ukrainian forces repelled Russian offensives north of Slovyansk.
  • Russian forces made limited and localized attacks along contested frontlines around Kharkiv City but did not make any advances on June 27.
  • Ukrainian counteroffensives along the Southern Axis continue to force Russian troops to prioritize defensive operations along the line of contact.
  • Russian occupation authorities are taking steps to strengthen economic control of occupied territories and force Ukrainian civilians to switch to the ruble.
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108 years ago today a wrong turn led to a global conflagration.

Hopefully this war stays right where it is and we don't have a repeat.
 
Life during wartime. Translation of intercepted phone call between M (Russian soldier) and F (his wife):

M: Anyway, that's the fucked up thing - they're sending everyone to the front line

F: to fight?

M: to fight, yeah.

F: fuckin' hell

M: I wrote a refusal, 170 people refused

F: that's right. Do you want to die?

M: I don't know, they'll probably take us somewhere - to the Procuracy
or FSB. Then they will take us home and probably they will put us on
trial.

F: oh, fuck, bitch, it's not better!

M: better alive than dead. We won't make it now. If we go now, the
convoy won't make it. I know where they're going, it's fucked up. They
(Ukrainians) will destroy everyone on the way.

F: Why the fuck are they sending you?

M: 'Cause there's no one, you know. All the infantry was killed. You
know what they told us yesterday? We asked: where are the combat planes?
Where are the helicopters? The aviation is a pity, and you are
expendable material. That's all. Fuck you. We are expendable. I'm not
going.

F: That's what you'll tell the prosecutor's office.

M: Yeah, that's what I'll say. I don't give a fuck. Fucking cunts.
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Swansong said:
I live under the landing flight path at a small regional airport, one that the Mass National Guard uses a lot. It's pretty cool when the Ospreys come in. Those things are loud.
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I randomly saw one last weekend. I was pretty sure at the time it was an Osprey and just read on Twitter one was flying between Pease and Portland on a training mission. There is a lot of military stuff that flies over my house but we have so many trees around that oftentimes I hear it and don’t see it.
 
My dictator invaded Ukraine and all I got was this military command economy.

The Kremlin is likely setting conditions for crypto-mobilization of the Russian economy in preparation for a protracted war in Ukraine. The Kremlin proposed an amendment to federal laws on Russian Armed Forces supply matters to the Russian State Duma on June 30, that would introduce “special measures in the economic sphere” obliging Russian businesses (regardless of ownership) to supply Russian special military and counterterrorist operations. The amendment would prohibit Russian businesses from refusing to accept state orders for special military operations and allow the Kremlin to change employee contracts and work conditions, such as forcing workers to work during the night or federal holidays. The Kremlin noted in the amendment’s description that the ongoing special military operation in Ukraine exposed supply shortages, specifically materials needed to repair military equipment, and stated that Russian officials need to “concentrate their efforts in certain sectors of the economy." Russian President Vladimir Putin is likely mobilizing the Russian economy and industry to sustain the ongoing war effort, but has not yet taken parallel measures to mobilize Russian manpower on a large scale.
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Drew S. said:
I wish we would shoot some of those little ***** down and teach them a lesson https://www.politico.com/news/2022/0...ction-00045832
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do-you-want-a9hwca.jpg
 
Not that I know anything about anything, but isn't this a backdoor to taking Russian oil and not taking the public heat for it? I thought Azerbaijan was well inside the Russian circle.
 
Kepler said:
Not that I know anything about anything, but isn't this a backdoor to taking Russian oil and not taking the public heat for it? I thought Azerbaijan was well inside the Russian circle.
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Well, Azerbaijan is friendly-ish with Russia due to proximity, but they've been on Turkey's side when it comes to their constant fighting with Armenia (who is staunchly on Russia's side). I wouldn't be surprised if this is just Azerbaijan capitalizing on a market that has a gaping hole in it.
 
Swansong said:
Well, Azerbaijan is friendly-ish with Russia due to proximity, but they've been on Turkey's side when it comes to their constant fighting with Armenia (who is staunchly on Russia's side). I wouldn't be surprised if this is just Azerbaijan capitalizing on a market that has a gaping hole in it.
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Makes sense.

I didn't know Azerbaijanis hate Armenians until I looked at their foreign relations. That's Serb-Croat edge towards the doorway level stuff.
 
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