University of North Dakota - Offseason Thread 2010

[brianvf]

Re: University of North Dakota - Offseason Thread 2010

With or without Genoway, I think the Sioux should win the WCHA next year handily.

I would love to see it, but the WCHA is a crazy thing sometimes.
Plus, they might not be the Sioux next season. Who knows what will happen with that.

Also, Chris VandeVelde has signed with Edmonton. He's going to report to the AHL to start:

http://www.fightingsioux.com//ViewArticle.dbml?DB_OEM_ID=13500&ATCLID=204922693

Congrats to VV!

 

[SJHovey]

Re: University of North Dakota - Offseason Thread 2010

DU will have a lot of seniors (9-10?) and a very experienced d-corps. Question marks will be up front (a lot of offense is leaving) and in goal (if Chevy leaves). I think 4th is about right assuming Chevy goes. If Chevy stays, I think DU is probably 2nd-3rd or so.

With or without Genoway, I think the Sioux should win the WCHA next year handily. They will be loaded with experience, and won't need to overcome a bad start.

The Sioux were 5th in the conference in scoring last year, at less than 3.2 goals per game. That doesn't figure to improve this year, replacing Vande Velde with an unproven freshman. Unless someone can explain to me how virtually the identical team, minus their best forward, should expect to improve even marginally on offense next year, I expect a very similar season to this one. Very good defensively, a lot of close games, and in the hunt for home ice. If anything, UND will benefit from "addition by subtraction" due to heavier losses at other schools.

My pick for the top 3 will be SCSU, UMD, and MN, with UND, DU and Wis. fighting for the last 3 home ice spots with the likes of BSU, UNO, CC, etc...

 

[sfo19]

Re: University of North Dakota - Offseason Thread 2010

The Sioux were 5th in the conference in scoring last year, at less than 3.2 goals per game. That doesn't figure to improve this year, replacing Vande Velde with an unproven freshman. Unless someone can explain to me how virtually the identical team, minus their best forward, should expect to improve even marginally on offense next year, I expect a very similar season to this one. Very good defensively, a lot of close games, and in the hunt for home ice. If anything, UND will benefit from "addition by subtraction" due to heavier losses at other schools.

My pick for the top 3 will be SCSU, UMD, and MN, with UND, DU and Wis. fighting for the last 3 home ice spots with the likes of BSU, UNO, CC, etc...

DEPTH. That's how. We aren't replacing VV with an unproven freshman. He's not replaceable. Every returning member will step up in his absence. Your statement makes it sound like all hope is lost and that VV was our entire team. This virtually identical team progressed a lot through the year, and combined with the other team's graduation/early departure losses, it's natural to predict high expectations for next year's squad. I expect a step forward with all that experience returning, and combine that with the top defense in the WCHA returning, there's the potential for an exciting season. I have a VERY hard time predicting Minny in the top 3 -- they were an experienced team this year, and lacked the ability to play with any passion at all,and I'm not sure that changes overnight. I see a top 5 of UND, SCSU, UMD, DU, and UW... in that order is my prediction.

 

[alnike]

Re: University of North Dakota - Offseason Thread 2010

DEPTH. That's how. We aren't replacing VV with an unproven freshman. He's not replaceable. Every returning member will step up in his absence. Your statement makes it sound like all hope is lost and that VV was our entire team. This virtually identical team progressed a lot through the year, and combined with the other team's graduation/early departure losses, it's natural to predict high expectations for next year's squad. I expect a step forward with all that experience returning, and combine that with the top defense in the WCHA returning, there's the potential for an exciting season. I have a VERY hard time predicting Minny in the top 3 -- they were an experienced team this year, and lacked the ability to play with any passion at all,and I'm not sure that changes overnight. I see a top 5 of UND, SCSU, UMD, DU, and UW... in that order is my prediction.

Agree on all points here, including the 10-11 predictions.
North Dakota "seems" to be keeping its underclassmen, but its still early.
Duluth has three free agents as its top scorers in Fontaine and the Connolly's.
Will they keep them.

I assume Wisco will lose McDonagh, B Smith and perhaps Stepan and Goleubeuf, pending the Frozen Four outcome.

For preseason 10-11 on paper, two WCHA teams should be in the top 6.
1. Miami
2. Boston College
3. North Dakota
4. Michigan
5. St. Cloud
6. Maine

 

[SJHovey]

Re: University of North Dakota - Offseason Thread 2010

DEPTH. That's how. We aren't replacing VV with an unproven freshman. He's not replaceable. Every returning member will step up in his absence. Your statement makes it sound like all hope is lost and that VV was our entire team. This virtually identical team progressed a lot through the year, and combined with the other team's graduation/early departure losses, it's natural to predict high expectations for next year's squad. I expect a step forward with all that experience returning, and combine that with the top defense in the WCHA returning, there's the potential for an exciting season. I have a VERY hard time predicting Minny in the top 3 -- they were an experienced team this year, and lacked the ability to play with any passion at all,and I'm not sure that changes overnight. I see a top 5 of UND, SCSU, UMD, DU, and UW... in that order is my prediction.

We had depth this year. On the other hand, having an endless supply of 8 goal, 15-20 pt. players does not necessarily insure success. If you really want to be Nat'l title contenders, you need to have some skilled guys on offense who can put the puck in the net. My point was that next year our team will be nearly identical to this year's, except for the loss of VV and Zajac, barring any unexpected early departures, and we weren't exactly an offensive powerhouse this year.

To that team we will add a couple of unproven defensemen and forwards.

So my question stands. Does everyone think the same 18 players who scored less than 3.2 gpg in the conference last year will dramatically improve those numbers next year, keeping in mind that the spot on the roster of one of the better offensive players last year will be filled by a less experienced player next year?

My answer is "probably not" since I think it is relatively rare to see players, especially those who have been around for a season or more, to show dramatic improvement in their scoring abilities. Thus, I think we know what we can expect out of Malone, Trupp, Toews, Hextall, Gregoire, etc...

That doesn't mean the season is "lost." I just don't see us having the 2-4 guys with 20+ goals skills to make us any sort of favorite for the WCHA regular season title.

 

[brianvf]

Re: University of North Dakota - Offseason Thread 2010

If anything, UND will benefit from "addition by subtraction" due to heavier losses at other schools.

This is definitely part of the equation. DU and UW both suffer heavy losses, which will more than likely move them down.
That said, I think you'll see increased scoring from UND next season:

Hextall was injured for almost 2 months of the season...once he came back, the PP was back to normal.
Frattin didn't play half the season, and when he came back he was the most consistent scorer on the team. Give him a full season, and he'll explode in points.
The Frattin/Malone/Trupp line was dominant toward the end of the season. All three are returning.
Kristo is poised to have a breakout season, as is Knight.
Gregoire will be a force next season, and then more than likely sign after his JR season.

My pick for the top 3 will be SCSU, UMD, and MN, with UND, DU and Wis. fighting for the last 3 home ice spots with the likes of BSU, UNO, CC, etc...

SCSU suffers from the same issue that UND does in regards to offseason losses. They lose their best forward, Lasch, plus their best dman, Raboin. The only difference is that our best dman, Genoway, can return if he wants to.

 

[SJHovey]

Re: University of North Dakota - Offseason Thread 2010

I have another little piece of trivia for those of us who follow UND hockey hoping for a chance at another MacNaughton Cup.

The last 7 seasons UND won the cup: 2009, 2004, 2001, 1999, 1998, 1997 and 1987.

How did UND finish in terms of conference goal scoring each of those seasons?

2009: 1st
2004: 1st
2001: 1st
1999: 1st
1998: 1st
1997: 1st
1987: 1st

It should also be pointed out that in addition to leading the league in goal scoring in it's Nat'l Championship seasons of 1987 and 1997, UND also led the WCHA in goal scoring in it's championship season of 2000, even though they didn't win the Mac.

If next year's team wants to be successful, depth of scoring won't be enough if it also doesn't add up to a lot of scoring.

 

[PCM]

Re: University of North Dakota - Offseason Thread 2010

So my question stands. Does everyone think the same 18 players who scored less than 3.2 gpg in the conference last year will dramatically improve those numbers next year, keeping in mind that the spot on the roster of one of the better offensive players last year will be filled by a less experienced player next year?

The 3.2 goal per game stat is somewhat misleading. Scoring fell off when Genoway went down and Hextall was out with an injury. Before Genoway was lost for the season, the 7-1-1 Sioux were averaging 3.67 goals per game. From February onward, UND averaged 4 goals per game.

Your question appears to assume that nobody on this year's roster will be better next season. I can see Brad Malone, Jason Gregoire, Matt Frattin, Danny Kristo, Brett Hextall, Evan Trupp and Corban Knight all putting up more points next season than they did this season. That's two solid scoring lines right there.

I can also see the Sioux getting more scoring from the blue line next season -- with or without Genoway. And what if a freshman or two has a solid year? What if guys like David Toews and Michael Cichy start chipping in regularly?

It's not as if UND will need to replace a huge amount of scoring.

 

[lord k]

Re: University of North Dakota - Offseason Thread 2010

I have another little piece of trivia for those of us who follow UND hockey hoping for a chance at another MacNaughton Cup.

The last 7 seasons UND won the cup: 2009, 2004, 2001, 1999, 1998, 1997 and 1987.

How did UND finish in terms of conference goal scoring each of those seasons?

2009: 1st
2004: 1st
2001: 1st
1999: 1st
1998: 1st
1997: 1st
1987: 1st

It should also be pointed out that in addition to leading the league in goal scoring in it's Nat'l Championship seasons of 1987 and 1997, UND also led the WCHA in goal scoring in it's championship season of 2000, even though they didn't win the Mac.

If next year's team wants to be successful, depth of scoring won't be enough if it also doesn't add up to a lot of scoring.

Well Frattin and Kristo could both be 25 goal guys next year, we will have to wait to find out. Kristo will be that much more experienced and won't have the learning curve on the power play. Frattin just seems like a changed player after the suspension.

UND does need to increase its scoring next season which they can do. The forecheck is still going to be ferocious so they will get their chances.

 

[brianvf]

Re: University of North Dakota - Offseason Thread 2010

Well Frattin and Kristo could both be 25 goal guys next year, we will have to wait to find out.

So could Gregoire...he was almost there this season with 20 goals.
Hextall could as well...he got 14 this season despite being out for 9 games.

 

[lord k]

Re: University of North Dakota - Offseason Thread 2010

So could Gregoire...he was almost there this season with 20 goals.
Hextall could as well...he got 14 this season despite being out for 9 games.

If those 2 are the wings on a line whoever centers them will have a monster year by default.

 

[brianvf]

Re: University of North Dakota - Offseason Thread 2010

If those 2 are the wings on a line whoever centers them will have a monster year by default.

My guess on centers:

L1/L2 - Malone, Knight
L3 - Mario
L4 - Player To Be Named Later

Hakstol hinted at that during the last media day:

Corban Knight will likely play center next season. He could get an opportunity to center one of the top lines (Brad Malone will center the other one). Hakstol said some of UND's younger players are natural centermen. I specifically asked whether Jason Gregoire could move to center and Hakstol said that he will not. He said Gregoire is too good along the wall and that left wing is his best position. He will remain there.

 

[SJHovey]

Re: University of North Dakota - Offseason Thread 2010

The 3.2 goal per game stat is somewhat misleading. Scoring fell off when Genoway went down and Hextall was out with an injury. Before Genoway was lost for the season, the 7-1-1 Sioux were averaging 3.67 goals per game. From February onward, UND averaged 4 goals per game.

Your question appears to assume that nobody on this year's roster will be better next season. I can see Brad Malone, Jason Gregoire, Matt Frattin, Danny Kristo, Brett Hextall, Evan Trupp and Corban Knight all putting up more points next season than they did this season. That's two solid scoring lines right there.

I can also see the Sioux getting more scoring from the blue line next season -- with or without Genoway. And what if a freshman or two has a solid year? What if guys like David Toews and Michael Cichy start chipping in regularly?

It's not as if UND will need to replace a huge amount of scoring.

I'm not saying it's not possible. I'm just saying I don't expect a big jump in scoring with what will basically be the same line up.

No question that injuries hampered the Sioux for parts of last year. But they're part of the game, and who's to say we will be injury free next year.

What's interesting is to go back and look at the goal scoring for forwards that have played for the Sioux the past 6-8 years and look to see if there have been dramatic improvements in a player's scoring.

What I think you see, for the most part, is kind of a "what you see is what you get" after the player's first couple of seasons. There are certainly exceptions. Andrew Kozek popping 18 goals in his junior season, more than double that scored in any other season. Ryan Duncan's great sophomore season.

Here is an incomplete list:
VV: 3, 15, 18, 16
Gregoire: 12, 20
Trupp: 8, 7, 8
Hextall: 12, 14
Malone: 1, 5, 11
Frattin: 4, 13, 11
D. Zajac: 8, 3, 5, 8
D. Toews: 5, 4
Lamoureux: 3, 7
Oshie: 24, 17, 18
Duncan: 16, 31, 18, 20
Kozek: 7, 5, 18, 8
Watkins: 5, 6, 8, 7
Martens: 0, 3, 1, 10
Kaip: 0, 3, 5, 8
Stafford: 11, 13, 24
T. Zajac: 20, 18
J. Toews: 22, 18
Spirko: 16, 11
Porter: 10, 12, 7, 13
Prpich: 8, 9, 7, 7
Fabian: 3, 5, 6, 5
Bochenski: 17, 35, 27
Parise: 26, 23
Murray: 19, 8
Co. Genoway: 0, 1, 11, 13
D. Lundbohm: 9, 7, 15, 15
Fylling: 4, 6, 12, 3
McMahon: 5, 7, 10, 14
R. Hale: 4, 8, 3, 3
Massen: 5, 15, 1, 2
Canady: 4, 1, 2, 4

Can a guy like Kristo go from 15 to 30, like Duncan or Bochenski did? Sure, but he could also go back a couple, like Oshie, Stafford, Spirko or J. Toews did.

How about Rowney or Cichy? They could certainly make the jump to 13-15 like VV or Frattin did. But they also might just be lifetime 3-8 goals scorers like Kaip, Canady, D. Zajac, Fabian, Hale, etc...

I think it's possible one or perhaps two players can make that 10 goal jump. I don't think it's likely any more than that would do it. Instead, it's much more likely players will end up in about the same range they have historically hit.

 

[The Exiled One]

Re: University of North Dakota - Offseason Thread 2010

I'm not saying it's not possible. I'm just saying I don't expect a big jump in scoring with what will basically be the same line up.

I think it's possible one or perhaps two players can make that 10 goal jump. I don't think it's likely any more than that would do it. Instead, it's much more likely players will end up in about the same range they have historically hit.

You're thinking too "big picture". Scale it down a bit. VV was on the first PP unit. He scored 7 of his 16 goals there. That LITERALLY means that he would have scored only nine goals were he not on the PP at all. Next year, somebody else will be there... it could be a freshman, it could be a player from the second PP unit... whatever. So, somebody will (for the first time ever) have a chance to score goals on the first PP unit. In summary, it won't be the "same line up", because somebody will (for the first time ever) have an OPPORTUNITY to score more goals.

Go back and look at some of those big jumps in goal totals from previous seasons where the player was promoted to the first PP unit. What do you want to bet that the "jump" is about the same amount as their PP goal total?

EDIT: Here's an example... Frattin went from zero PP goals and 15 points his freshman season to five PP goals and 25 points his sophmore year. What was the difference?

 

[SJHovey]

Re: University of North Dakota - Offseason Thread 2010

You're thinking too "big picture". Scale it down a bit. VV was on the first PP unit. He scored 7 of his 16 goals there. That LITERALLY means that he would have scored only nine goals were he not on the PP at all. Next year, somebody else will be there... it could be a freshman, it could be a player from the second PP unit... whatever. So, somebody will (for the first time ever) have a chance to score goals on the first PP unit. In summary, it won't be the "same line up", because somebody will (for the first time ever) have an OPPORTUNITY to score more goals.

Go back and look at some of those big jumps in goal totals from previous seasons where the player was promoted to the first PP unit. What do you want to bet that the "jump" is about the same amount as their PP goal total?

EDIT: Here's an example... Frattin went from zero PP goals and 15 points his freshman season to five PP goals and 25 points his sophmore year. What was the difference?

Sure, some players get to play more, or on special teams more, and we see a corresponding jump in their point totals. However, it's still a wash unless someone playing in a similar situation to last years makes a big jump.

Let me show you.

Last years goal totals:
VV: 16
Gregoire: 20
Kristo: 15
Trupp: 8
Hextall: 14
Malone: 11
Frattin: 11
Zajac: 8
Toews: 4
Knight: 6
Lammy: 7
Rowney: 1
Bruno: 1
Cichy: 2

Total goals by forwards: 124

Ok, now remove Zajac and VV.

Then, let's assume Malone gets to play VV's increased role on the team, and bumps his goal total up from 11 to the 16-17 range of VV. Then someone has to replace Malone. Let's assume it's Rowney, who makes a nice big jump from 1 goal to 11, like Malone had.

Someone replaces Rowney, probably a freshman.

For Zajac, let's assume Bruno makes a big step forward and plays Darcy's role, and goes from 1 goal to 8 goals, replacing Zajac. Again, a freshman replaces Bruno.

All else being equal, we now have:

Gregoire: 20
Kristo: 15
Trupp: 8
Hextall: 14
Malone: 16
Frattin: 11
Toews: 4
Knight: 6
Lammy: 7
Rowney: 11
Bruno: 8
Cichy: 2
Plus two freshmen.

Total goals: 122, plus whatever you get out of the freshmen.

In my scenario, predicting very nice goal increases due to the improved playing/special teams time for Malone, Rowney and Bruno, as you correctly surmise will happen, we still end up a wash unless in addition to those players whose role's are increased, other players make big improvements in their scoring.

 

[PCM]

Re: University of North Dakota - Offseason Thread 2010

The difference is that I'm looking at the individual players on the roster and their potential to increase their scoring. I really don't think that comparing what players have done in the past -- particularly those who weren't expected to be scorers, who played only two seasons and who had injury issues -- relates to the current group of forwards.

Malone has increased his scoring every year. Frattin greatly improved by season's end, despite playing only half a season. Hextall and Gregoire have both improved their scoring. Kristo could very well increase his production, too. It'd be interesting to see what Hextall can do if he stays healthy. Lamoureux improved from his freshman to sophomore seasons.

Trupp remains something of an enigma. We've seen what he's capable of doing, but he also has a tendency to disappear for long stretches. Knight is also something of a question mark, although Hakstol certainly seems to think that he'll play a larger role by centering one of the top lines and being a regular on the power play.

You're also totally ignoring the potential for more scoring from the defensive corps. Hakstol's scheme is to develop defenseman with a "defense first" mentality. Once he knows that they're solid defensively, he gives them more freedom to get involved offensively. Usually, that doesn't happen until their junior year. We saw that from Blood this season. I suspect that Gleason has more of an offensive upside than we've seen.

We know how good Marto can be when he's healthy. LaPoint also has offensive skills. Will he be even better after playing a full season and having the off season to further rehab his leg? It's possible. And if Genoway comes back? Wow.

We have this same discussion every year at the end of the season. The assumption always is that the team can't replace the scoring it lost. And each new season, freshmen produce more than expected, some players begin to play up to their potential, others play better than anticipated and upper classmen have better seasons than they did as freshmen and sophomores simply because of the experience factor.

Will all that happen next season? Possibly not because as you pointed out, injuires can play a major role in a team's offensive production. However, I do believe the potential is there -- barring early departures -- for next season's Sioux team to be one of the most solid from top to bottom that Hakstol has coached during his tenure.

 

[Duey]

Re: University of North Dakota - Offseason Thread 2010

Also, Chris VandeVelde has signed with Edmonton. He's going to report to the AHL to start

Congrats to Chris......go spuds

 

[SJHovey]

Re: University of North Dakota - Offseason Thread 2010

We have this same discussion every year at the end of the season. The assumption always is that the team can't replace the scoring it lost. And each new season, freshmen produce more than expected, some players begin to play up to their potential, others play better than anticipated and upper classmen have better seasons than they did as freshmen and sophomores simply because of the experience factor.

Will all that happen next season? Possibly not because as you pointed out, injuires can play a major role in a team's offensive production. However, I do believe the potential is there -- barring early departures -- for next season's Sioux team to be one of the most solid from top to bottom that Hakstol has coached during his tenure.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not bad mouthing the team or downplaying our chances.

Also, I think we will replace the scoring from last year. We didn't lose that much.

My point has been that in addition to guys like Malone, etc..., replacing the scoring of VV and Zajac, we need to have guys who already play a big role show a nice increase in their scoring abilities if we want to do more than simply replace what we've lost. It won't be enough if Malone just becomes the new VV, and Rowney becomes the new Malone.

I think the potential is there. More than anyone, I think Kristo has a chance to put up a lot more goals than he did in a very nice freshman season. I don't think we've seen his full potential even strength yet, and I think he's going to be even more effective next year on the pp.

I like Frattin's chances as well to put up 16-20 goals. Not saying it will happen, but he has the talent and I think he now knows that.

Hextall, who knows. Could he score 20-25 goals if he stays healthy? Possibly. I still think he's a 12-15 goal guy though. I think the same with Malone. I don't think we'll see more than 10 out of Trupp. Knight's going to get a chance to see a lot more scoring chances and he could be come a 15 goal guy.

But I don't see any of our incoming freshmen putting up the 15 that Kristo did.

It's still a team that will rely primarily on defense, which should be very, very good next year. Also, I think scoring in the WCHA will be down dramatically. A lot of top end scoring talent in the league is leaving.

But looking at it from a national perspective, I would really like to see a bump up to that 3.75-4 goals per game average. That combined with a great defensive team will put us in the hunt for the big prize.

 

[SJHovey]

Re: University of North Dakota - Offseason Thread 2010

Danny Kristo named to INCH's Freshmen All-American Team and named runner-up for INCH's Rookie of the Year award. Congrats, Danny!

 

[brianvf]

Re: University of North Dakota - Offseason Thread 2010

Congrats to Chris......go spuds

Here is the Herald article on the signing:

http://www.grandforksherald.com/event/article/id/156751/group/sports/