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University of North Dakota Hockey: 2011-2012

Re: University of North Dakota Hockey: 2011-2012

SJHovey said:
I don't believe 4 points will be enough in the next two weekends, although that may be about as many as we likely can get.

You go back to Jim Dahl's first comments on the subject in early January. An 11-4 record over the second half of the regular season would put UND "quite likely" in the 10-13 range. You don't want to be below 13. He suggested they "could" make the tournament by winning as few as 8-9 games, with a decent WCHA tournament run, but that would be dicey.

They've gone 3-2 since that time. They really need to go 8-2 over these last 10. The WCHA traditionally produces a lot of splits in the second half of conference play, and an 8-2 run would have the added benefit of jumping them up the standings.

8-2 will be hard, but it's within their reach. Sweep at home and split on the road will get it done. It has to start this weekend.
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IMO, they need to go 7-3 in their last ten. Win their first round series, and then we'll see what happens at the Final Five. Jim Dahl's projections from 15 games out was 3 weeks ago, and I imagine that it has changed quite a bit since then. I'm sure he'll update it soon, as he usually does a great job figuring out what North Dakota needs to do to finish in a respective position. That being said, my main point was to get home ice, as I think regardless of what we finish (minus perhaps 10-0) that we'll need to win our first round series and make it to st paul to have a shot at the NCAAs this year.

That being said, being in the top 14 or 15 may not be enough this year. To get the auto bid, a team may have to realistically finish in the top 13 because currently only 1 ECAC team is in the tourney field. If Cornell doesn't win their tourney (and assuming they stay in the top 12 that they are currently in) that means that #15 gets chopped. Further, only 3-4 WCHA teams are currently in, so if one of the outsiders happens to take the WCHA title (or if a similar thing happens in Hockey East) then you are looking at #14 being on the wrong side of the bubble. I think #13 means you are probably safe in the tournament. So, how do we get to #13? Without having looked to in-depth at the data, I think if we can go 7-3 (splits w/Wisconsin, Duluth, and Denver, sweeps over Mankato and Tech), win our First round series (likely against SCSU, Wisconsin, or Tech), and then win a game in the Final Five. That gives a record of 10-4 or 10-5 (depending if the first round series goes 2 or 3 games) and an overall record of 23-14-2 (or 23-15-2). Depending on what happens elsewhere, that probably gets us into the tournament.

Obviously, it would be better to go 8-2, sweep the first round series, and make the championship game (giving us a record of 25-13-2), but IMO that is not likely. I think UND is a bit too shallow in all areas to sweep 3 of the final 5 series. Mankato is the easiest of the three, but Wisconsin and Tech will be difficult series. Duluth will be a difficult matchup for North Dakota, and I think UND will struggle to get a point that weekend. North Dakota hasn't won in Denver in awhile, and the Pios have a pretty good team that is starting to gel together. Anything can happen, and we are capable of playing well. That being said, I think it is more likely that we go 6-4 or 5-5 in our last ten than 8-2. I hope I'm way off on that though. :)
 
Re: University of North Dakota Hockey: 2011-2012

I think 6-4 is the likely finish to the regular season. That should get them home ice. If they advance to St. Paul, I think they will need to make the championship game, minimum, to secure a bid.
 
Re: University of North Dakota Hockey: 2011-2012

Is there a clip of St Clouds disallowed goal? I'm curious to look at it.
 
Re: University of North Dakota Hockey: 2011-2012

SJHovey said:
I think 6-4 is the likely finish to the regular season. That should get them home ice. If they advance to St. Paul, I think they will need to make the championship game, minimum, to secure a bid.
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It is definitely a tough road in for North Dakota this year. Jim Dahl has his PWR forecast up for this week, and according to him they would need to go 8-2 to nearly secure a bid (obviously not taking into account tournament play. If they went 8-2, it looks like they would be a top 13 seed about 80% of the time, and a top 15 seed about 95% of the time, with a #11 seed the most likely spot. If they go 7-3, it looks like they would be a top 13 seed about 20-25% of the time, and a top 15 seed about 55-60% of the time, with a #15 seed the most likely spot. Obviously, North Dakota can improve (or fall) depending on their performance in the WCHA Tournament. From looking at this, it seems as if UND goes 8-2 and wins their first round series that should be enough to get an at-large bid. If they go 7-3 and win their first round series, they still might have to win a game (or two) at the Final Five to make it. Ultimately, to me it seems that two things are "must haves." First, North Dakota needs to win at least 6-8 of their last 10 (unless they were to win the Final Five). Second, UND must win their first round series. Obviously those two go hand in hand, as a winning record over the final 10 games should get them home ice, and should allow them a good chance to get to St. Paul.

Here is the article...

http://blog.siouxsports.com/2012/01/23/1615/

Given that, and assuming we need 8 wins, then this weekend is basically a must sweep (3 points could theoretically work as well). So, how do we get those 8 wins?

vs. Wisconsin - 2 wins are a must if we want 8 wins. I'm not sure how a 7-2-1 record would play out in comparison, but 3 points may work as well. Either way, more than a split is necessary.
@ Duluth - Split. If we get swept at Duluth, it is likely that we would have to do major damage at the Final Five, and perhaps win it...not a likely task.
vs. Mankato - 2 wins are a must. The Mavs are one of the worst teams in the league, and if we fail to sweep at home, we can probably kiss our shot at the NCAAs goodbye, barring a miracle.
@ Denver - Split. We have not had the best of luck at Denver, but this will likely be a make or break type series, perhaps for both schools.
vs. Tech - 2 wins are a must. If we were to do something miraculous like sweep Duluth or Denver, then perhaps there is a tad bit of wiggle room, but for Pairwise purposes (especially COP/TUC) this is a must 3+ points.

Basically any way you slice it, IF North Dakota makes the NCAAs, it will likely be as a low #3 or #4 seed. That has been a position that many teams have used over the past 4-5 years to make runs at the NCAA Title, but I think this year's squad is probably a bit too depleted to make a serious charge. Of course, in the playoffs hockey often turns into "goalie" (as UND found out last year at the Frozen Four), and Dell is capable of stealing games. Ultimately, if you make it into the tourney you have a chance. Hopefully UND is able to play well in this stretch and make the NCAAs.
 
Re: University of North Dakota Hockey: 2011-2012

I would think a sweep this weekend would be helpful, if for no other reason, to balance the two losses in Madison earlier in the year for purposes of our pairwise comparison against the badgers.
 
Re: University of North Dakota Hockey: 2011-2012

SJHovey said:
I would think a sweep this weekend would be helpful, if for no other reason, to balance the two losses in Madison earlier in the year for purposes of our pairwise comparison against the badgers.
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Correct. Also, defeating Wisconsin carries nearly identical weight to beating Denver for RPI purposes. In fact, beating Wisconsin would be our fourth best victory of the season minus the sweep over CC and the win over Maine. Of course, hopefully those are all eclipsed by a victory (or two) over Duluth.
 
Re: University of North Dakota Hockey: 2011-2012

Page three in late January - sheesh. Just some random thoughts about the weekend...nice! we needed a sweep and got it...why can't everyone on the team play as hard as Kristo? Other than him and Lammy, it doesn't look like anyone is going at 100% all the time...Dell played poorly - 2 of the goals that he let in were very weak...Eids played pretty good - he looked like he wasn't ready on the second goal and probably expected a penalty, but still...there were stretches where the Sioux were just watching the game, and bucky was skating circles around them....Gleason is fast!... MacWilliam took a couple of dumb penalties but played better Saturday...hustle will win hockey games - get with the program!
 
Re: University of North Dakota Hockey: 2011-2012

The sweep was huge. We're currently 16th in the Pairwise, just outside an NCAA bid. With 8 games left, 6-2 is possible, but hopefully the guys get healthy with this week off. Forbort looked better tonight, but you can definitely tell he is still rusty. I wouldn't mind seeing a Dell/Eidsness duo the rest of the way, especially if Eidsness can play well. I don't hold Eidsness too much at fault for either goal tonight, and he came up with some big saves, but sometimes he looks like he is fighting the puck.

If North Dakota can get splits in Duluth and Denver, that would be huge. Obviously, anything better than 4 points in those two series would be icing on the cake. If they do that, and sweep at home, it looks like North Dakota stands a pretty good shot at making the NCAA Tournament. Plus, that would assure UND of getting home ice, and potentially a matchup against Tech, SCSU, or this same Wisconsin squad in the first round. At this point though, I'm very happy with the 4 points, and hopefully guys are able to heal up any injuries that they have this next week, and get ready for the final stretch. At this point, this will be the last weekend off for the team until either A) Season Ends or B) they win their regional and get ready for the trip to Tampa. Of course, there is the very small chance that the team loses in the First round of the WCHA tournament, and somehow gets invited to the NCAAs, but I don't want to think about that as a possibility just yet.

Nice weekend North Dakota, and it was very nice to see the stick salute/4 points over Wisconsin.
 
Re: University of North Dakota Hockey: 2011-2012

Nice wins by the guys this weekend! Time to rest up for the big trip to Duluth.

We're probably going to be sitting in 7th place in the conference, though, when we make that trip in two weeks. It looks like the standings are really going to stay bunched up in the 3-8 range.
 
Re: University of North Dakota Hockey: 2011-2012

The First Goal on Saturday offered us a glimpse of the superstar Danny Kristo can be ... create space with speed and drive, draw defenders, dish (to Nelson this time), and beat the other defenders to the net. WOW. Just WOW.

As he continues to learn how to manipulate the game, he has the potential to become unstoppable.

Also, someone suggested Joe Gleason for an "A". The guy has done everything asked, and done it well. He shows increasingly elite speed, and playing center allows him to showcase his two way skills. WOuld love to see him centering a "checking line", provided a good faceoff man is on the line. He's someone that could win the hard hat just about every night.

Lunch pail hockey. After years and years of abundant elite talent, this team is winning by lunch pail blue collar effort and teamwork.

I think we finish 6th with 5-3 down the stretch, then nose into the NCAA's as a #4 seed, from which anything can happen. Maybe we'll get UMD in Minneapolis...
 
Re: University of North Dakota Hockey: 2011-2012

On another positive note, North Dakota recently got two more commitments, including Adam Tambellini (son of Oilers GM Steve, brother of Michigan All-American Jeff). Adam should help bring more scoring to the squad, and hopefully he is able to come in next season (looks like 2012 or 2013 are both possible for him to come in). Adam choose North Dakota over Minnesota and Michigan. Looks like Adam is a pretty nice get for UND, and I look forward to watching him play.
 
Re: University of North Dakota Hockey: 2011-2012

Fighting Sioux 23 said:
On another positive note, North Dakota recently got two more commitments, including Adam Tambellini (son of Oilers GM Steve, brother of Michigan All-American Jeff). Adam should help bring more scoring to the squad, and hopefully he is able to come in next season (looks like 2012 or 2013 are both possible for him to come in). Adam choose North Dakota over Minnesota and Michigan. Looks like Adam is a pretty nice get for UND, and I look forward to watching him play.
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I don't know if there would be room for him next year. We for sure lose Lammy as a senior. Potential flight risks would be Kristo, Nelson, and Knight.
We already have Chyzyk and Koules confirmed for next year, but also add St. Clair and MacMillan (at mid-season). Then throw in the return of Grimaldi, Rodwell, and O'Donnell (not confirmed that his is season-ending, but it sounds serious) from injury, and we look a lot fuller than this year.

I think that Kristo is the only one of the three that might leave IMO, which leaves us with 2 forwards to replace from this year's lineup.
 
Re: University of North Dakota Hockey: 2011-2012

Nelson is piling up some goals this year and has a shot at 30. Not many guys have been able to do this. He is definitely showing a deadly scoring touch.
 
Re: University of North Dakota Hockey: 2011-2012

Great win tonight! Probably as good a performance as we've seen out of the team all year. Would love to see a repeat tomorrow night.
 
Re: University of North Dakota Hockey: 2011-2012

SJHovey said:
Great win tonight! Probably as good a performance as we've seen out of the team all year. Would love to see a repeat tomorrow night.
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North Dakota played extremely well tonight. I would compare it to the CC series, but we played much better defensively tonight. For whatever reason I didn't think the Sioux were going to turn it around after the Christmas break because of all the injuries, but they are playing their best hockey at the right time. I guess we all just need to relax sometimes and realize that Hakstol knows what he is doing. :p:D:D

Hopefully the Sioux are able to play well tomorrow and come home with 4 points. If they do that, we are quietly inching our way up to putting ourselves in contention for a top 2 spot...heck, even the MacNaughton is a possibility if we win out (highly unlikely). Either way, it's a lot of fun being a Sioux fan right now.
 
Re: University of North Dakota Hockey: 2011-2012

Fighting Sioux 23 said:
North Dakota played extremely well tonight. I would compare it to the CC series, but we played much better defensively tonight. For whatever reason I didn't think the Sioux were going to turn it around after the Christmas break because of all the injuries, but they are playing their best hockey at the right time. I guess we all just need to relax sometimes and realize that Hakstol knows what he is doing. :p:D:D

Hopefully the Sioux are able to play well tomorrow and come home with 4 points. If they do that, we are quietly inching our way up to putting ourselves in contention for a top 2 spot...heck, even the MacNaughton is a possibility if we win out (highly unlikely). Either way, it's a lot of fun being a Sioux fan right now.
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I'm not going to hold my breath for the MacNaughton, but what a great win! They played a complete game and deserved to pick up 2 points. Let's look for 2 more tomorrow!
 
Fighting Sioux 23 said:
North Dakota played extremely well tonight. I would compare it to the CC series, but we played much better defensively tonight. For whatever reason I didn't think the Sioux were going to turn it around after the Christmas break because of all the injuries, but they are playing their best hockey at the right time. I guess we all just need to relax sometimes and realize that Hakstol knows what he is doing. :p:D:D

Hopefully the Sioux are able to play well tomorrow and come home with 4 points. If they do that, we are quietly inching our way up to putting ourselves in contention for a top 2 spot...heck, even the MacNaughton is a possibility if we win out (highly unlikely). Either way, it's a lot of fun being a Sioux fan right now.
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Right. But I wouldn't count this team out yet. If mn falters, the mac is up for grabs....
 
Re: University of North Dakota Hockey: 2011-2012

I have watched this game for a long time, but I wish I understood it better. The Sioux weren't bottled up in their own end nearly as much last night as they have been, even in games they've won. The D are being patient, but the passing lanes did not close up last night as much as they have been.

These lunch-pail hockey players are really proving themselves. It may be that it is that type of player that Hak really gets the most out of, with his focus on daily improvement and fundamental hockey.
 
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