UNH Wildcats-The Back Nine and Beyond!

[Dan]

Re: UNH Wildcats-The Back Nine and Beyond!

Since the opening of the Whittemore Center - and prior to this season - the only true freshman UNH defensemen I found (per hockeydb) were Chanter, Pesce, Murray, Truelson and O'Brien. There freshmen numbers were as follows....

Chanter: 8 GP, 0-2--2
Pesce: 38 GP, 1-5--6
Murray: 2 GP, 0-0--0
Truelson: 28 GP, 0-2--2
O'Brien: 26 GP, 0-6--6

The two FR defenders may have stand-out seasons, but it is a lot to ask and way too much to expect. They may end up All-Americans and future NHLers, but more often than not 18 year old college defensemen require adjustment periods when playing against 22-24 year old experienced, college forwards...

The deciding factors defensively will be whether Marks, Chanter and Wyse can take big steps to lead the group. The forwards will need to prevent odd rushes and I think we'll all see that TK was hardly the liability he was painted to be in the D zone when he is no longer around to serve as a one-man break out/transition...

 

[HockeyRef]

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Coach Umile sat down with <a href="https://twitter.com/JamieStatonWMUR">@JamieStatonWMUR</a> today of <a href="https://twitter.com/WMUR9_Sports">@WMUR9_Sports</a> at Bow Lake. The story will air on <a href="https://twitter.com/NHChronicle">@NHChronicle</a> in October! <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/GoUNH?src=hash">#GoUNH</a> <a href="https://t.co/XItx2QJC7K">pic.twitter.com/XItx2QJC7K</a></p>— UNH Wildcats Hockey (@UNHHockey) <a href="https://twitter.com/UNHHockey/status/910995864734326785">September 21, 2017</a></blockquote>
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Umile tanned and rested for the vigors of his retirement tour.



I hear you about the horse.
I think two-way is not really the key, as much as puck possession time. That involves your second point about the D. The forwards had few chances to control the puck because the D rarely got them clean passes. If the puck is always a chip into your area rather than a clean pass on your stick, you'll always be indecisive, not knowing whether to convert to defense or commit to the rush.
The talent is there on the offense, particularly with healthy Vela and Nazarian, whose injuries killed their year, and Blackburn with a year under his belt.
Two key recruits are excited by Mike Souza, and they are the key to the D. You know what you get with Marks, Wyse, and the Boyd/Dawson/Chanter groupings. See point 1 above.
Can Gildon or Maass control the puck for the breakouts. From what I saw they are good offensive players in the offensive zone, but I didn't see enough if they can get to pucks in the defensive zone and control them. From what I saw of Maass, his offensive zone play is very good, and given his later round NHL pick status, have to imagine defense is not as strong. Gildon looked like Masonius in his zone. Can handle the puck OK, but not really take charge.
If either can really become that guy who corrals loose pucks and changes the direction of the play, then that will be a huge positive.

What are your line predictions if I may ask?

 

[NCAA watcher]

Re: UNH Wildcats-The Back Nine and Beyond!

Just based on talent, less on who fits well with who.

Sr.Salvaggio----Jr.Nazarian ------So.Grasso
Sr.McNicholas---So.Blackburn------Jr.Vela
So.BVR-----------Fr.Kelleher --- --Sr.Eiserman
So.Fregona---------Jr.Miller ---------Fr.MacAdam
Fr.Sato--------Jr.Cefalu--------So.Sacco


I'd assume Grasso and Salvaggio drop a bit in production with Kelleher gone. Hopefully Nazarian and Vela with health produce more. Nazarian could be a McNicholas type scorer. Eiserman unfortunately stalled out with offense, so 3rd line will be his cap.
Assumes Fregona can get more upto speed than he did his freshman year. I am hoping he can make more of a jump and not be wasted on the 4th line - I actually expected him to be about the same as Grasso, but Grasso way overperformed my expectations, and Fregona way underperformed. Otherwise, an undersized fourth liner is not great.

 

[boblav1]

Re: UNH Wildcats-The Back Nine and Beyond!

Congrats to the football Wildcats on the win today and the attendance record. Impressive!

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">VICTORY!!!!! #15 UNH improves to 3-1 and 2-0 in the <a href="https://twitter.com/CAAFootball">@CAAFootball</a> in front of a UNH record crowd of 22,135 fans! <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/GoUNH?src=hash">#GoUNH</a> <a href="https://t.co/xAoT3EWKOe">pic.twitter.com/xAoT3EWKOe</a></p>— UNH Football (@UNH_Football) <a href="https://twitter.com/UNH_Football/status/911721207485124610">September 23, 2017</a></blockquote>
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[Dan]

Re: UNH Wildcats-The Back Nine and Beyond!

UNH picked 9th by the, uhh...writers. If you told me they'd jump up to 7th I wouldn't be surprised at all, but that's probably their ceiling. Merrimack and UConn are essentially their equals. Ninth should be the floor, they're still notably better than UMass and Maine.

https://twitter.com/MattVautourDHG/status/911977587840299008

 

[Chuck Murray]

Re: UNH Wildcats-The Back Nine and Beyond!

With 11 teams in Hockey East this coming season, that means the top 5 teams go straight to the QF round, while the next six teams have to play in the MBPBEGAM round. Seeds 6 thru 8 get the home ice,, seeds 9 thru 11 travel.

So UNH will finish 9th, win 12 regular season games, and take the first game of the *playoffs* against the likes of UConn or Merrimack (this is a recording) before dropping the last two games. And you know what that means ...

 

[Chuck Murray]

Re: UNH Wildcats-The Back Nine and Beyond!

Dragging this over from the HE Preseason Thread, with responses triggered by my prediction The Quest stalls at 599 ...

Honest question, do you think if it happens he comes back to get 600 or does he let Souza take over as planned?

No way would he come back ... or more accurately, no way he would be allowed back. Technically, his "lifetime contract" will have finally expired, and (as we will touch on later below) he's already pushed this situation out well beyond the point of tolerance, and in doing so has worn out his welcome. It is far more likely someone at UNH will come up with some far-fetched scheme to re-classify one of the exhibition wins as a legitimate non-conference win (and that's not happening, obviously). To say there would have to be some serious face-saving gesture(s) involved should the Quest stall out short of the NRN would be an understatement of epic proportions ...

IMO, Dick Umile has more pride and class than to even think of holding UNH hostage to a personal magic number.

Then what were the last two years plus this year?

As they say ... pride goeth before the fall. Coach does have lots of pride - arguably, too much TBH. And the longer he's hung on over the last half-decade or so, as his formerly perennial national contending program has migrated slowly but steadily away from the heights where he earned the (somewhat patronizing) tag of the "classy runner up", he has squandered a ton of goodwill in the process, as long-time UNH fans endure the seemingly endless wait to see if his successor can "right the ship" that Coach has currently let run far adrift.

In doing all of this, Coach has really ended up putting his UNH legacy in a really tough spot. Should he be remembered for the success he was in the midst of during the better part of his first 20 years on the job? Absolutely yes. But the longer he has hung on, the longer this stretch of abject mediocrity (at best) has extended, and each year takes us another step further removed from all the good (if not great) things he did accomplish in the '90's and '00's.

Coach can still pull this out of his hat in a positive way IF he finishes up this season with a winning record, and something to show for the postseason (trip to Boston and/or the NCAA's). The sooner he gets the 600 in the rear-view mirror, the better. But scraping to the 600 in the RS finale or in the MBPBEGAM *playoffs* is not going to do anything other than allow the AD's office to put together some cloying little ceremony in mid/late February. And my guess is that ceremony will involve a lot of polite applause, and a somewhat embarrassed coach.

Where I think Coach has put his legacy on the line was his direct involvement in selecting Coach Souza as his successor. If Souza is not successful, then that's another (post-retirement) strike against Coach Umile. On the other hand, if Souza turns into the second coming of Shawn Walsh or Norm Bazin, then Coach Umile should be hailed as a visionary in seeing something that pretty much no one else has yet seen from him to date.

So I guess the way I look at it is, Coach Umile has gone "all in" on his UNH legacy with how things have played out over the last 3 seasons. Whether his legacy emerges unscathed (using an offseason meme, he shoots par), eroded (bogey) OR enhanced (birdie) probably depends on the outcome of all of the above. But getting the 600 thing out of the way ASAP - and obviously that would take a definitive winning RS record, something that's been a hallmark of his program until very recently - is the immediate key to allowing the man to leave his job with some semblance of dignity, with the rest to be determined later this season, and then again (hand-picked successor) many years from now.

For the record ... I'm rooting for him, and I pray to God my prediction proves to be wrong. 'Cuz 599 would just be brutal.

 

[UNH1932]

Re: UNH Wildcats-The Back Nine and Beyond!

Bob

There were between 5000-6500 who watched the game at any time. The majority of students were gone by halftime and there were never more than 200-300 on the visitors side. We did have 22000+ in the parking areas with former classmates but very few went into the stadium. 12000 of the tix were for undergrads.

 

[UNH1932]

Re: UNH Wildcats-The Back Nine and Beyond!

Watcher

You have most of the players who are on first four lines but Coach Umile will likely have different lines than your predictions. Fregona is a gifted scorer but it is unlikely he will get many opportunities to have power play time or top 6 forward time. I do not disagree with you on most of your assessments of talent. There needs to be a right shot and left shot and a center that can win some faceoffs. Given those constraints, you will be disappointed next Sunday and the following weekend when you see the lineups.

I urge you do wait and see who is playing where and when. They have senior talent, junior talent, terrific sophomore talent and one top six forward that might be a freshmen. There might be a different freshmen in the top 9. I do not know any better than you but I believe McNick and Salvaggio will stay together.

 

[Chuck Murray]

Re: UNH Wildcats-The Back Nine and Beyond!

I do not know any better than you but I believe McNick and Salvaggio will stay together.

Yes, I agree with this point, for sure. It would be very unlike Coach to split these two after their success together - whether or not Kelleher was arguably the catalyst without whom their success would not have happened. He will keep them together until they prove themselves it was down to Kelleher ... OR maybe they show they haven't been given enough credit? Fair enough if he does. We should see soon enough if it works without Kelleher or not.

 

[Dan]

Re: UNH Wildcats-The Back Nine and Beyond!

What I'd like to see...
Salvaggio - McNicholas - Grasso
* This is their best bet as a big offensive line and they need one. Success this season hinges on their ability to score and lead a potent PP without TK. It's a question fair to ask of all three until they prove otherwise. I think they'll be solid - but worry we'll find out just HOW MUCH more impactful TK was on his linemates than Aston-Reese. Sikura, Gaudette and Cockerill making the pre-season first team? It's just as likely they (and Stevens bros) made ZAR better. TK was clearly the catalyst, these three must step up without him...

Nazarian - Blackburn - Vela
* These are the three I'd give the first shot at providing depth. Blackburn is a clear number two center, for me, and Nazarian and Vela have the talent to score goals. If they don't swaps can be made, but I'd give them the shot.

BVR - Kelleher - Eiserman
* What will they get immediately out of CK? BVR is built for a top-six role but I think there are better options initially. Eiserman was never a pure scorer with the USNTDP, but an elite banger, forechecker, etc who could score. If he can pop a few more playing with two play-makers that would be a great add. In the meantime, he'll have to set the tone for two skill-players as a checker...

Fregona - Miller - McAdams
Sacco - Cefalu

*UNH has two issues with its forward group that make line pairing difficult. First, a lot of their true centers belong in their top six which limits options at center for the bottom six. I hope they do not drop a player like Nazarian or Vela for the sole purpose of playing C. It would hurt the offensive production of their top two lines and they need those groups to produce. Second, their wingers are hard to match up by shooting-hand/on-side which is important to them but not so much to me. Plenty of players are successful on their off-side and plenty of teams employ off-side wingers (DU). It would be a shame to see either BVR or Eiserman languish on the fourth line just to match up R and L shots. Fregona is the wildcard of this group, he has real ability but he's a freelancer and we'll see how much strength he added this summer...

What I'd guess we'll see...

Salvaggio - McNicholas - Vela
Eiserman - Blackburn - Grasso
BVR - Nazarian - Miller
Fregona/Cefalu - McAdams - Kelleher
Sacco

 

[Dan]

Re: UNH Wildcats-The Back Nine and Beyond!

What I'd like to see...

Marks - Gildon
Maass - Wyse
Chanter - Miller
* The future is now, play all three of the kids and Wyse a ton and hope they can be the bedrock of a standout D moving forward. I'd imagine the unit still has some trouble this season without any stand out upper class men and what's behind them. Counting on rookie D is always tough, especially with two true freshmen. I believe Miller is just 19, too. I think the teams ceiling is 7th - I'd rather finish 9/10th and give the four young D a real chance to develop, adapt and adjust so they can hopefully excel in the future.

Dawson - Boyd?
Nonis

What I'd guess we'll see...

Chanter - Wyse
Marks - Gildon
Maass - Dawson

Miller - Boyd
Nonis

What I'd not be surprised to see...

Chanter - Wyse (with Chanter/Marks starting games together)
Marks - Dawson
Maass/Miller/Boyd - Gildon
Nonis

Even if the rookie D can only give you FR Pesce, Truelson and Kostolansky - play them early, often and in all situations and hope they turn into upperclass Pesce, Truelson and Kostolansky down the road!

 

[Chuck Murray]

Re: UNH Wildcats-The Back Nine and Beyond!

Agree with Dan's assessment of the forwards and likely line combinations.

I shudder at the thought of Chanter getting first pairing minutes (visions of "senior first checking line" two seasons ago), and agree he should rarely play outside 3rd pairing ... BUT also agree Coach may see things differently.

 

[UNH1932]

Re: UNH Wildcats-The Back Nine and Beyond!

Your original 6 is closer than you think. One is not a lock but I would not be surprised if the 6 you chose will be the norm.

 

[UNH1932]

Re: UNH Wildcats-The Back Nine and Beyond!

We will not know until 10/6, but you may be underestimating Tyler's brother. I would bet Eiserman is on second line not third but I have been surprised before. It is likely you have the better part of the top 9 but I would not be surprised if Fregona or MacAdams are in the top 9 either. We do have some talent and have some faith in the coaches to start the year.

 

[Snively65]

Re: UNH Wildcats-The Back Nine and Beyond!

We will not know until 10/6, but you may be underestimating Tyler's brother. I would bet Eiserman is on second line not third but I have been surprised before. It is likely you have the better part of the top 9 but I would not be surprised if Fregona or MacAdams are in the top 9 either. We do have some talent and have some faith in the coaches to start the year.

So, all but Sacco and Cefalu in top 9? My arithmetic may be sketchy, but that sounds like 12 forwards in the top 9?

 

[UNH1932]

Re: UNH Wildcats-The Back Nine and Beyond!

So, all but Sacco and Cefalu in top 9? My arithmetic may be sketchy, but that sounds like 12 forwards in the top 9?

Yes Snively there will only be 9 players on the first 3 lines. There is a strong chance that either Fregona or MacAdams may be on the right wing on one of the top 3 lines. There are one or two other players (mentioned by others) that are probably not on first 3 lines. We hope to see you Sunday at the Whitt.

 

[NCAA watcher]

Re: UNH Wildcats-The Back Nine and Beyond!

2017-18 Hockey East Preseason Poll
(1) Boston University – 90 (2)
(2) UMass Lowell – 88 (5)
(3) Providence – 83 (2)
(4) Boston College – 75 (1)
(5) Northeastern – 72 (1)
(6) Vermont – 54
(7) UConn – 39
(8) New Hampshire – 37
(9) Merrimack – 29
(10) Maine – 19
(10) Massachusetts - 19

 

[HockeyRef]

Re: UNH Wildcats-The Back Nine and Beyond!

2017-18 Hockey East Preseason Poll
(1) Boston University – 90 (2)
(2) UMass Lowell – 88 (5)
(3) Providence – 83 (2)
(4) Boston College – 75 (1)
(5) Northeastern – 72 (1)
(6) Vermont – 54
(7) UConn – 39
(8) New Hampshire – 37
(9) Merrimack – 29
(10) Maine – 19
(10) Massachusetts - 19

Welp, at least we aren't last!

 

[Chuck Murray]

Re: UNH Wildcats-The Back Nine and Beyond!

Hey, 8th place means home ice for the MBPBEGAM round of the so-called *playoffs".

Could make all the difference in whether The Quest ends happily or predictably ...