Wow Sean very interesting analysis
Sincerely thanks for the research on the one-goal games, Sean.
Thanks for the compliments. I started looking into leads earlier this season when some BU fans were ripping BU and Coach O'Connell for blown leads. BU has improved since I started, but earlier this season holding a lead wasn't BU's main problem; getting a lead was. However, since the start of December they have been great at both, scoring first in 13 of the last 14, never losing the lead in 8 of those games, regaining the lead for good in another 3 games, and only falling behind in 2 games (1 loss, 1 tie).
As folks on here know well, I've been a leading proponent of the importance of (1) scoring the first goal, and (2) effectively playing with/preserving a lead
Over the past 4 seasons the team that scores first in a game won 65.7% of the time, with a combined 2407-929-328, 0.702 record. However, it wasn't always easy, as the team that scored first never lost the lead just 40.9% of the time. Here are the top ten team's records with a lead this season:
[TABLE="width: 375"]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl68"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl63"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl68"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl68, colspan: 4"]
Record with Lead[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl68"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl65"]
Team[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68"]
League[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"]
W[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"]
L[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"]
T[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"]
Pct.[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl68"]
1[/TD]
[TD="class: xl63"]
Quinnipiac[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68"]
ECAC[/TD]
[TD="class: xl63, align: right"]
26[/TD]
[TD="class: xl63, align: right"]
1[/TD]
[TD="class: xl63, align: right"]
0[/TD]
[TD="class: xl64, align: right"]
0.963[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl68"]
2[/TD]
[TD="class: xl63"]
Notre Dame[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68"]
B1G[/TD]
[TD="class: xl63, align: right"]
23[/TD]
[TD="class: xl63, align: right"]
1[/TD]
[TD="class: xl63, align: right"]
0[/TD]
[TD="class: xl64, align: right"]
0.958[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl68"]
3[/TD]
[TD="class: xl63"]
Minnesota State[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68"]
CCHA[/TD]
[TD="class: xl63, align: right"]
29[/TD]
[TD="class: xl63, align: right"]
2[/TD]
[TD="class: xl63, align: right"]
0[/TD]
[TD="class: xl64, align: right"]
0.935[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl68"]
4[/TD]
[TD="class: xl63"]
Denver[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68"]
NCHC[/TD]
[TD="class: xl63, align: right"]
22[/TD]
[TD="class: xl63, align: right"]
2[/TD]
[TD="class: xl63, align: right"]
1[/TD]
[TD="class: xl64, align: right"]
0.900[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl68"]
5[/TD]
[TD="class: xl63"]
Michigan[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68"]
B1G[/TD]
[TD="class: xl63, align: right"]
25[/TD]
[TD="class: xl63, align: right"]
3[/TD]
[TD="class: xl63, align: right"]
0[/TD]
[TD="class: xl64, align: right"]
0.893[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl68"]
6[/TD]
[TD="class: xl63"]
Western Michigan[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68"]
NCHC[/TD]
[TD="class: xl63, align: right"]
20[/TD]
[TD="class: xl63, align: right"]
3[/TD]
[TD="class: xl63, align: right"]
1[/TD]
[TD="class: xl64, align: right"]
0.854[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl68"]
7[/TD]
[TD="class: xl63"]
Army[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68"]
AHA[/TD]
[TD="class: xl63, align: right"]
15[/TD]
[TD="class: xl63, align: right"]
3[/TD]
[TD="class: xl63, align: right"]
0[/TD]
[TD="class: xl64, align: right"]
0.833[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl68"]
8[/TD]
[TD="class: xl63"]
Ohio State[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68"]
B1G[/TD]
[TD="class: xl63, align: right"]
21[/TD]
[TD="class: xl63, align: right"]
4[/TD]
[TD="class: xl63, align: right"]
1[/TD]
[TD="class: xl64, align: right"]
0.827[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl68"]
9[/TD]
[TD="class: xl63"]
Omaha[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68"]
NCHC[/TD]
[TD="class: xl63, align: right"]
19[/TD]
[TD="class: xl63, align: right"]
4[/TD]
[TD="class: xl63, align: right"]
0[/TD]
[TD="class: xl64, align: right"]
0.826[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl68"]
10[/TD]
[TD="class: xl63"]
Clarkson[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68"]
ECAC[/TD]
[TD="class: xl63, align: right"]
18[/TD]
[TD="class: xl63, align: right"]
2[/TD]
[TD="class: xl63, align: right"]
5[/TD]
[TD="class: xl64, align: right"]
0.820[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
and over the past 4 seasons:
[TABLE="width: 375"]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl70"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl65"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl70"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl70, colspan: 4"]
Record with Lead[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl70"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl67"]
Team[/TD]
[TD="class: xl70"]
League[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68"]
W[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68"]
L[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68"]
T[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68"]
Pct.[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl70"]
1[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65"]
Minnesota State[/TD]
[TD="class: xl70"]
CCHA[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]
114[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]
8[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]
2[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, align: right"]
0.927[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl70"]
2[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65"]
Lake Superior[/TD]
[TD="class: xl70"]
CCHA[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]
71[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]
11[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]
3[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, align: right"]
0.853[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl70"]
3[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65"]
North Dakota[/TD]
[TD="class: xl70"]
NCHC[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]
85[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]
12[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]
7[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, align: right"]
0.851[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl70"]
4[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65"]
Quinnipiac[/TD]
[TD="class: xl70"]
ECAC[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]
89[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]
14[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]
4[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, align: right"]
0.850[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl70"]
5[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65"]
Massachusetts[/TD]
[TD="class: xl70"]
HEA[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]
89[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]
14[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]
5[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, align: right"]
0.847[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl70"]
6[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65"]
Minnesota Duluth[/TD]
[TD="class: xl70"]
NCHC[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]
81[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]
14[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]
4[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, align: right"]
0.838[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl70"]
7[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65"]
AIC[/TD]
[TD="class: xl70"]
AHA[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]
76[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]
15[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]
2[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, align: right"]
0.828[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl70"]
8[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65"]
St. Cloud State[/TD]
[TD="class: xl70"]
NCHC[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]
78[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]
13[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]
9[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, align: right"]
0.825[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl70"]
9[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65"]
Cornell[/TD]
[TD="class: xl70"]
ECAC[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]
60[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]
10[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]
7[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, align: right"]
0.825[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl70"]
10[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65"]
Denver[/TD]
[TD="class: xl70"]
NCHC[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]
77[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]
14[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]
7[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, align: right"]
0.821[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
Here are the Hockey East team's records for this season:
[TABLE="width: 375"]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl70"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl65"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl70"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl70, colspan: 4"]
Record with Lead[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl70"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl67"]
Team[/TD]
[TD="class: xl70"]
League[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68"]
W[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68"]
L[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68"]
T[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68"]
Pct.[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl70"]
1[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65"]
Northeastern[/TD]
[TD="class: xl70"]
HEA[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]
20[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]
4[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]
1[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, align: right"]
0.820[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl70"]
2[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65"]
Providence[/TD]
[TD="class: xl70"]
HEA[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]
19[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]
4[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]
1[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, align: right"]
0.813[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl70"]
3[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65"]
Connecticut[/TD]
[TD="class: xl70"]
HEA[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]
17[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]
4[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]
0[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, align: right"]
0.810[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl70"]
4[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65"]
Boston University[/TD]
[TD="class: xl70"]
HEA[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]
17[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]
4[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]
2[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, align: right"]
0.783[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl70"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl65"]
Massachusetts[/TD]
[TD="class: xl70"]
HEA[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]
17[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]
4[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]
2[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, align: right"]
0.783[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl70"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl65"]
UMass Lowell[/TD]
[TD="class: xl70"]
HEA[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]
17[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]
4[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]
2[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, align: right"]
0.783[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl70"]
7[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65"]
New Hampshire[/TD]
[TD="class: xl70"]
HEA[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]
13[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]
5[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]
1[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, align: right"]
0.711[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl70"]
8[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65"]
Merrimack[/TD]
[TD="class: xl70"]
HEA[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]
17[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]
7[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]
1[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, align: right"]
0.700[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl70"]
9[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65"]
Boston College[/TD]
[TD="class: xl70"]
HEA[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]
11[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]
7[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]
5[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, align: right"]
0.587[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl70"]
10[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65"]
Maine[/TD]
[TD="class: xl70"]
HEA[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]
6[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]
4[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]
2[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, align: right"]
0.583[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl70"]
11[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65"]
Vermont[/TD]
[TD="class: xl70"]
HEA[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]
6[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]
11[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]
1[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, align: right"]
0.361[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
and for the past 4 seasons:
[TABLE="width: 375"]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl70"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl65"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl70"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl70, colspan: 4"]
Record with Lead[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl70"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl67"]
Team[/TD]
[TD="class: xl70"]
League[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68"]
W[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68"]
L[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68"]
T[/TD]
[TD="class: xl68"]
Pct.[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl70"]
1[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65"]
Massachusetts[/TD]
[TD="class: xl70"]
HEA[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]
89[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]
14[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]
5[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, align: right"]
0.847[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl70"]
2[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65"]
Providence[/TD]
[TD="class: xl70"]
HEA[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]
70[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]
15[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]
14[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, align: right"]
0.778[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl70"]
3[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65"]
Northeastern[/TD]
[TD="class: xl70"]
HEA[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]
74[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]
19[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]
7[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, align: right"]
0.775[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl70"]
4[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65"]
UMass Lowell[/TD]
[TD="class: xl70"]
HEA[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]
62[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]
16[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]
9[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, align: right"]
0.764[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl70"]
5[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65"]
Maine[/TD]
[TD="class: xl70"]
HEA[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]
42[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]
13[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]
6[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, align: right"]
0.738[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl70"]
6[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65"]
Boston College[/TD]
[TD="class: xl70"]
HEA[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]
66[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]
22[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]
9[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, align: right"]
0.727[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl70"]
7[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65"]
Boston University[/TD]
[TD="class: xl70"]
HEA[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]
56[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]
17[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]
13[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, align: right"]
0.727[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl70"]
8[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65"]
Connecticut[/TD]
[TD="class: xl70"]
HEA[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]
54[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]
20[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]
5[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, align: right"]
0.715[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl70"]
9[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65"]
New Hampshire[/TD]
[TD="class: xl70"]
HEA[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]
46[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]
23[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]
13[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, align: right"]
0.640[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl70"]
10[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65"]
Merrimack[/TD]
[TD="class: xl70"]
HEA[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]
38[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]
28[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]
8[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, align: right"]
0.568[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl70"]
11[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65"]
Vermont[/TD]
[TD="class: xl70"]
HEA[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]
25[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]
29[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]
6[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, align: right"]
0.467[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
Sean