I just lost a long post when I was logged out while writing it - so I’m going to post this in bits and pieces. UNH’s lack of scoring IS a problem - both in what it means this season and beyond...
UNH is averaging just 3.00 goals per game through 8 contests - this puts them right smack dab in the range of average as they’re tied for 21st in scoring with six other teams right now. Three goals a night may be enough to win a number of games this season - especially with how the team defense is performing (2.38 GA/G), most notably on the blue line and in goal - but if UNH wants to compete in HE and battle for an NCAA Tournament spot they’re going to need to produce more offense. That said, it’s not even really their goals/game average that’s the problem - it’s consistency, depth and the level of completion they’ve faced to date....
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* UNH has 24 goals in 8 games currently - their rate of scoring 3.0/G is what it is. Scoring ‘clutch’ goals is nice but it doesn’t change their overall ability to score. First you’d have to believe that they try harder late or in OT. They’re trying to score every time over the boards and 3.0 is their number. It doesn’t jump to 3.5 because a goal is scored in OT. If anything, the clutch goals indicate what a fine line they’ve walked so far in terms of goal differential and the difference more scoring could make. It’s also illustrative of just how good the defense has been in limiting opponents to give those late goals the opportunity to mean what they’ve meant...
* UNH scored 10 goals at Miami. Since then they’ve scored 14 goals in 6 games for 2.33 goals per game. Miami ranks 58th nationally in goals against and just gave up 12 in a weekend at North Dakota...
* In addition to Miami (58th), UNH has faced the 9th, 26th, 36th, 42nd, 51st and 54th scoring defenses in the country. The competition is going to get tougher. UNH needs to get better along with the schedule...
* Against top-50 scoring defenses UNH has six goals in four games for a rate of 1.5 goals per game.
* UNH has scored 11 of its 24 goals on the PP. Their 5x5 scoring has not been up to par and needs to improve. Their PP should be a weapon all season, but they’re not going to get 1-2 PPG every night - especially against better competition. Can they win moving forward if the PP has an off night...
* Six players have scored 21 of UNH’s 24 goals. That is 88%. The other three goals have all been scored by defensemen - leaving three other defensemen and forwards 6-16 with a combined zero goals in 80 games. It’s not just the FR forwards/class. If a team focuses on limiting UNH’s top line and PP who steps up? Can the top line continue to produce at this rate when they garner the type of attention that comes with being the sole line scoring goals. UNH’s depth needs to step up in a big way - starting with Blackburn (and a, returning this weekend, Filip Engaras). There are 26 games remaining in the regular season - imagine the difference 26 goals from depth (instead of what would be 9 at the current pace) could make for this team...
* It’s not just about this season. Take a look at the UNH recruiting thread. Cafarelli is averaging a PPG in the BCHL and Richels (who will tear up his HS season) hasn’t started playing yet. The rest of the UNH recruits have scored 11 goals in 136 man-games for a scoring rate of 0.08 GPG. UNH’s defense will take a massive hit this season when the top pair (as good as any pair in the country) moves on. Depending on the success the team and top individuals have this season - the goalie and a couple others may have the chance to join them. That goal differential is going to have to be made up one way or another...
* Stutzle isn’t coming. Current experienced goal scorers will graduate. If UNH has any hope of sustaining success it starts with goal production from younger players and recruits. Who fills in the gaps when an already top heavy scoring load begins to lose its biggest contributors.
* Recruiting needs to capitalize on the wins UNH has put together and scoring goals needs to be a priority. Along with replacing two elite D and grabbing a goaltender of the future (no pressure). Otherwise whatever success they have this season could be a one off...
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Now all that said - they may not need to improve TOO much with the way the D/G are playing. But better depth of scoring (outside of the top-six goal scorers UNH needed 33 goals from the rest of its roster just to get to 90 last season - right Snively, 90?) and increased production 5x5 (72% of goals in 2018-19 / 54% currently) could make a HUGE difference getting this team where they want to go...
Certainly none of this is insurmountable or promised to be a season long problem - but it should be a point of emphasis for the team right now, without a doubt. What they need to improve upon to have a truly successful season is clear - and how great is it to have learned that lesson while racing out to a 5-2-1 start...
Scoring is down in college hockey - UNH will never regularly score 4.5 goals per game like they used too - but if they can get to 3.25 goals per game up from 2.5 GPG a season (combined with a D that has already cut GAA significantly) they can swap goal differential by over a tally a night and they’re a true HE top-4 and NCAA Tournament threat this season, with something truly tangible to sell for the future...
Astr
