Re: UNH Wildcats 2016-17 Vol II -- We Do Have a Hockey Season Here!?!
Back on schedule, WIS Productions brings you the latest edition of "Umile's Last Stand - The _____ for 600"
"Umile's Last Stand - The Quest for 600"
Coach Umile's current career wins total: 58
3
Wins Remaining to the next round number: 1
7
*Games Remaining (Next 2 Seasons - Min.): 42
Win Pct. Required to Hit Target: 40.5%
WIS Estimated Likelihood of Success: 65%
2016/2017 Cupcake Conversion Ratio (CCR): 9/15 (60%)
* - minimum games remaining assumes 34 regular season games, and at least 2 games in the MBPBEGAM "playoffs"
The good news is UNH's 7 game winless streak went by the boards this past Friday night with a 4-2 win over the "other" 'Cats, which got the boys back within a game of the .500 mark. But with "The Gauntlet" nearing its end, and with it UNH's fading (now dashed) hopes of a top 4 seed that would have seen the program skip the silly MBPBEGAM first round of the "playoffs", an improbable sweep of slumping UVM proved to be just a bridge too far. One win in these last three games feels about right, though, and certainly allays fears that perhaps a double-digit winless streak through to the end of the season might have signaled an earlier-than-expected end to Coach Umile's tenure.
So now that we're down to the final two weekends of the HE regular season ... things have come into sharp focus, as UNH bobs around at or near the top of the lower half of the Hockey East standings. The question we'd been asking for so long has now been definitively answered, and to almost no one's surprise, UNH remains a mediocre hockey program when cupcakes and inflated win totals are put aside (although in some very obvious foreshadowing, even that plan didn't work out as hoped/planned). There is a "bright line" drawn right in the middle of the Hockey East standings, with 6 "haves" and 6 "have nots", and your Wildcats are at least frontrunners in the "Wannabe Division" of the group lingering below said "bright line". One win and one tie to date against the top 6 teams does not suggest UNH is on the cusp of being upwardly mobile any time soon. It only solidifies the status quo that Coach Umile is pretty good winning games at his level. Unfortunately for UNH, the bar for that level isn't the same as it was a decade ago.
The Big Picture - right now, the only realistic goals of relevance are (1) earning some home "post-season" games, and (2) finding a way to make sure Coach Umile's career ends successfully around this time next season with a happy ending to
The Quest. Losing a pair to UVM this past weekend would have been a real setback, but WIS prognosticators (who bizarrely picked the exact scores in both UVM games this weekend - but in true FUBAR fashion picked them on the wrong dates
) won't be downgrading the outlook now that UNH has exceeded last year's win total, with at least 6-7 more games remaining this season. And with the UConn Luce Canaans arriving to finish up the regular season - now trending into "cupcake" territory themselves - realistic opportunities for more W's aren't that far off any longer.
And wouldn't you know it ... the schedule also throws UNH what might be a nice break this coming weekend, with a home-and-home series set for Beanpot Finalists BU. I'll be rooting for BU Monday night, as a win over the ultimate Ivy sham frauds from across the Charles River could give UNH a chance to catch the Terriers in a very classic letdown scenario. Of course, if the Ivy Leaguers win their first 'Pot since the new building opened (I think; that's a guess?), then BU could be P.O.'ed and out for Kitty blood next weekend. So hence, WIS presents its bifurcated predictions for the coming weekend's games ...
Predictions:
IF BU WINS BEANPOT
Friday (Feb. 17th): UNH 3 @ BU 2
Saturday (Feb. 18th): @ UNH 1 BU 5
IF BU LOSES BEANPOT
Friday (Feb. 17th): UNH 1 @ BU 7
Saturday (Feb. 18th): @ UNH 2 BU 4
NEXT CUPCAKE ON THE SHELF (UPDATED): UConn (2/24/17); @ UConn (2/25/17)
UConn has won only one (1) of its last eight (8), and two (2) of its last ten (10) games
WIS BRAIN-BUSTING TRIVIA QUESTION: Which former UNH skater scored 218 goals in a 4 year span with the Quad City Mallards?
IS BS35+4 PAYING ATTENTION YET?
Yes. Even with an elusive W stopping the winless streak and moving Coach a step closer to the next round number, the success of
The Quest remains very much in the balance, and it's almost essential that Coach gets to 14-15 wins this season so that a similar haul next season will do the trick. The question is ... are you going to be able to find those 2-3 wins? Next weekend would be a happy bonus to get one (and WIS has outlined its suspected path towards one above), and then against UConn there will have to be at least one win, if not an outright sweep. After that ... let's say UNH somehow finds a way not to win these next two weekends ... to even get to 14 wins, it means UNH would have to win their MBPBEGAM "playoff" first round series. And at that point, it would be a UNH team with one (1) lone win in its last dozen-plus games.
That would be swimming against the tide, for sure.
Optimistically, a surprise W this weekend against BU, and a pair of W's against UConn the following weekend, and UNH is at 15 wins with a favorable home match-up against one of the dregs of HE in the MBPBEGAM round. So that could move the total up to 17 games, and let's say the boys eke out an extra win in a best-of-three losing QF road series to the likes of Lowell or Providence. 18 wins would leave only 11 W's left to the next round number, and a successful end to
The Quest with a team returning all but T. Kelleher, Cleland, Maller and Hill looks pretty darned good (almost certain, actually). So this next month of hockey is absolutely pivotal, and BS35+4 is watching closely.
