Dan, (and others) do you see the loss of TyK and Cleland as 'catastrophic'? Some wonder if we'll win more than 5 games next year...I find that hard to believe even recognizing what we are losing. I know the season isn't over yet but I've already started thinking about next year. Recognizing that we are getting in some defensive help (which will take time to develop) and seeing that the team CAN play competitively (as can most others) will we be looking at much of the same next year?
I think UNH under performed in many games for what reason I have no idea. I do recognize the depth issue esp defensively. (obviously) Personally I do not see a HC change coming next season, so I prefer to leave that out of the equation...and I do think we will really miss those two players mentioned above big time. Maybe this discussion is better left for the post mortem for when we are eliminated from the HE playoffs...
I won't make a win/loss guess until I see a schedule - but, yes, you can count me as one who thinks next year could easily be more difficult than this season. Kelleher and Cleland will be HUGE losses. Maller, while battling through injuries this season, has also played quite well.
Kelleher carried both the offense and the PP this season - he created his own secondary scoring by getting the absolute most out of his line mates. So much will have to go right for the offense next season for them to approach this years output.
First - can McNicholas and Salvaggio replicate - or come close to - this years production without TK? Everyone knows I love McNicholas, but I don't know if he is a number one playmaker. I'd doubt Salvaggio gets to 20 goals again. (DYK - his 23 goals this season match his total from the last FOUR seasons. Two at UNH and two in junior hockey). He just doesn't have a track record to indicate he's this type of sniper. If he surprises and does it again, he'll earn himself a nice FA contract. But, I wouldn't bet on it...
Assuming they do replicate their 2016-17 seasons, they'll still need a lot of help. Grasso will enter the season with high expectations, but don't forget that nearly half his points came playing on the loaded top PP unit. He was also a minus-16 last I checked. He will need to make a big step on both ends of the ice to give this team a chance. He's the most likely to step into Kelleher's role and that's asking a lot...
You'll also need to see that typical upperclass UNH forward spike in production from a senior like Eiserman, as well as MUCH improved play from Vela. Blackburn, BVR or Fregona, or all three, will need to join Grasso with Trevor Smith type sophomore jumps.
Remember, Tyler Kelleher only scored 16 points adjusting to NCAA hockey. So, Charlie will need some time too. Hopefully he and MacAdams can offer a significant upgrade to the lower line depth and ability to defend.
Without TK, I believe this years UNH team is well below average offensively. To be above average next year, they'll need all of the above to occur. I would expect that process is made, in particular by Blackburn and Grasso, but I don't think it's enough for next years team to be as dangerous as this season's club. So, step back...
Defensively, I think very few realize just HOW valuable Cleland was. He played obscene minutes, blocked a ton of shots (more than any other D over the last two years, I believe) and was the lone reliable breakout/offensive contributor. He is sorely overlooked - one media member said he didnt deserve All-HE second team honors "because defense counts, too." For the last two years he was UNHs defense and without him, things would have been really ugly without him. Statements like that do him a disservice...
Maller finally played to his potential this season and finished first in the team in plus-minus. He was also extremely solid and consistent - when healthy. Filling his shoes would be a lot to ask of a freshman defenseman. Let alone Cleland's.
For the D to avoid a step back - they'll need Wyse to progress towards being a true #1. Does he have that in him? Or is he a second pair guy who will have to take on #1 responsibility? Marks is who he is - quietly solid.
After that - lots of question marks. Chanter is always going to make mistakes. Can he limit those and play at a more steady level? Is Boyd healthy enough to play? Dawson needs to be much better in his own end and Nonis still has a lot of developing to do.
After Wyse and Marks - a lot will depend on the freshmen. Gildon has a ton of talent, but is still a FR. The team really needs him to immediately anchor at least the second pairing. That's a big ask.
Miller and Maase are both tall and slight, with questions on now they'll play in their own end - they should bring better skating and hopefully breakout ability, but how will they muscle in their own end? What happens if the game is fast for them as FR and their breakouts suffer? It's a huge plus for me that Miller was picked up by Penticton. Maase seems to have a lot of ability in him, but how long will it take hind to adjust. He has a big jump from MN HS.
Darcy was a big get at the time, but his development has really stalled. I don't think he contributes early - but I could also be very wrong.
Overall there are too many question marks and too large a void left by Cleland for me not to think the unit takes a step back. With Wyse a SO and the three freshmen - hopefully it's at worst a step back to take three steps forward in the years to follow.
As far as the goaltending - I think it's more of the same. Tirone and Clark are who they are. I don't think you can count on Tirone for anything more than inconsistent but average goaltending. Clark is apparently never going to get a shot - at least under Umile.
Robinson has talent and size, but he still needs to put it together. It'd be great if that happened immediately, but after being traded out of the USHL and struggling the last couple seasons that's likely asking too much.
So, steps back on O and D and the same goaltending leads me to believe it could be a long year. One where looking towards the future and player development (plus recruiting) is where we find satisfaction. I see UNH finishing in the bottom four again (creeping, at least closer, to the two UMs) - and hope there at signs of climbing the standings in future seasons.
---
Of you don't like that answer - Here is the optimist guide....
- Vela jumps up with Salvaggio and McNicholas, who get him going as all three push 40 points.
- Freshman trio takes a step forward and gives UNH a 1b scoring line.
- Eiserman, Nazarian and MacAdams provide UNH with a strong skating checking line that can chip in offense.
- Kelleher, Miller, Fregona keep pucks out of the net and grow offensively as season progresses.
- Developing Wyse and senior Marks five UNH a steady and reliable top pair.
- Gildon and Miller/Maass adjust immediately and are sturdy in their own end.
- Third pair is not a liability and can skate a regular shift.
- Tirone starts hot and rides the wave all season or Robinson is ready from Day 1
Optimist ceiling - top half HE
I LOVE your optimistic view of the what could be for the weekend! Keep coming back mk? I would not look past UNH...
Stranger things have happened in sports.
if you guys don't think Coach's boss doesn't think long and hard on that one, I dunno what to think. You guys must think even less of the AD than I do ... and that's a very low bar.
Always had the best ice too....