UNH Wildcats 2013-14 Season Thread

[e.cat]

Re: UNH goalie situation

Re: UNH goalie situation

Don't think I said "write off UNH." If I was ... I wouldn't still be watching them after 46 years as a ticket holder. Your right .... the student section is the best since the Snively days.

However, Lowell and Providence are experiencing beginnings (e.g. "PC - A new start and a new venue.") Care to hazard a guess as to what key ingredient makes them different *than* UNH? .... and will probably make them different in the foreseeable future.

Maybe it's semantics

Anyway, I'll take a stab at the question you pose. First letter "U", last letter "E". Or if you just want the generic version it would be first letter "C", last letter "H".

Fixed your post by the way

 

[Chuck Murray]

Re: UNH goalie situation

Re: UNH goalie situation

Let me guess....new, younger coaches who can figure out ways to out-coach Umile?

There....I said it

Looks like the pitchforks are out in force now, eh?

Not throwing in the towel, it's too early to do that, and I'd welcome a season where UNH finishes stronger than they start out.

But I do think it will be interesting to see if this year's team can turn things around and challenge what the 2012/2013 team did, which I guess was another spine-tingling trip into the Elite Eight, only to come up short of the Frozen Four yet again. OR if they are going to be like the 2011/2012 team, which also got off to a slow start, and was never really able to turn things around in the second half, despite some improved play later in the season.

Bottom-line ... was last season a mirage to mask what has been a gradual decline in the program's competitive profile over the last decade ... OR the start of a reversal and move back up the pyramid towards the top with the competitive elite?

There's no reason this year's team shouldn't at least match last season's team's overall performance, what with a handful of solid yet unremarkable players graduating (arguably with Henrion the best of a bunch that also included regulars Block, Kostolansky and Hardowa), and all the remaining front-line players a year older and (hopefully) a year better.

The proof is in the pudding. The next five games are all quite winnable, and a chance for UNH to get untracked before the schedule gets tough again through the mid-season holiday break. Win at least four of the next five, then put in some good performances against the rest, and we'll see what the outlook for 2014 might be by then ...

 

[Aerman]

Re: UNH goalie situation

Re: UNH goalie situation

Bottom-line ... was last season a mirage to mask what has been a gradual decline in the program's competitive profile over the last decade ... OR the start of a reversal and move back up the pyramid towards the top with the competitive elite?

There's no reason this year's team shouldn't at least match last season's team's overall performance, what with a handful of solid yet unremarkable players graduating (arguably with Henrion the best of a bunch that also included regulars Block, Kostolansky and Hardowa), and all the remaining front-line players a year older and (hopefully) a year better.

I certainly hope I'm wrong, but I'm leaning toward the mirage. And, as has been discussed at length here before, the decline appears to be tied to talent (as opposed to the icy side of coaching).

Looking at last year's seniors, I think Henrion and Block have each been missed already in their own way, but Hardoway and Kostolansky seem to be holes that have not been filled at all. Knodel never saw the ice as a freshman, was he worse then than Cleland is now? I doubt it. He may well become a solid d-man in time - perhaps a senior Kevin Kapstad - but he isn't ready now. The games we lose Pesce in December could be very interesting.

When I look at the roster I see three good forwards, none outstanding (feel free to tell me I'm selling Goumas short). I see four d-men who should range from solid to near-outstanding, but have seemed uneven so far this year. And two goalies that are adequate to solid, but no better. That's not a lot to work with.

What last year's team seemed to have, for a while, was a coordinated team effort. Tough, gritty, defensive-minded and all onboard. Through three games I've witnessed this year, I haven't figured out what they're trying to do. They can skate with anybody, but then ... what?

Wow, this is a bummer. Somebody straighten me out The turnaround starts Friday night with ZooMass.

 

[[UNH]Rig]

Re: UNH goalie situation

Re: UNH goalie situation

I certainly hope I'm wrong, but I'm leaning toward the mirage. And, as has been discussed at length here before, the decline appears to be tied to talent (as opposed to the icy side of coaching).

Looking at last year's seniors, I think Henrion and Block have each been missed already in their own way, but Hardoway and Kostolansky seem to be holes that have not been filled at all. Knodel never saw the ice as a freshman, was he worse then than Cleland is now? I doubt it. He may well become a solid d-man in time - perhaps a senior Kevin Kapstad - but he isn't ready now. The games we lose Pesce in December could be very interesting.

When I look at the roster I see three good forwards, none outstanding (feel free to tell me I'm selling Goumas short). I see four d-men who should range from solid to near-outstanding, but have seemed uneven so far this year. And two goalies that are adequate to solid, but no better. That's not a lot to work with.

What last year's team seemed to have, for a while, was a coordinated team effort. Tough, gritty, defensive-minded and all onboard. Through three games I've witnessed this year, I haven't figured out what they're trying to do. They can skate with anybody, but then ... what?

Wow, this is a bummer. Somebody straighten me out The turnaround starts Friday night with ZooMass.

As of right now Pesce, is on the outside looking in for a World JR spot. Chris Peters reported back in August after the camp:

Brett Pesce (CAR) — It took him a while to adjust to the pace and where he was supposed to be on the bigger ice surface, but Pesce improved as the week went along. He made a lot of questionable decisions with the puck and showed that the offensive side of the game doesn’t really come naturally to him. As more of a shutdown D, you can live with that so long as it doesn’t result in turnovers. I thought Pesce was a leading candidate to join the team as a shutdown defender, but based on some of his decisions and miscues, I’m less certain about that. I think he needs to have a strong first half to build a case for his candidacy.
http://unitedstatesofhockey.com/2013/08/12/2013-u-s-wjc-camp-wrap-up/

Pesce has had a bit of a rough stretch these first few games, he has been taking some gambles that haven't paid off, look to the RPI game where his attacking of the puck carrier from across the ice lead directly to the open man for the goal against. I think C-H-C put up video of that in his RPI recap. Under the circumstances I can't see Lucia taking him for World JR duty currently.

 

[Greg Ambrose]

Re: UNH goalie situation

Re: UNH goalie situation

I certainly hope I'm wrong, but I'm leaning toward the mirage. And, as has been discussed at length here before, the decline appears to be tied to talent (as opposed to the icy side of coaching).

Looking at last year's seniors, I think Henrion and Block have each been missed already in their own way, but Hardoway and Kostolansky seem to be holes that have not been filled at all. Knodel never saw the ice as a freshman, was he worse then than Cleland is now? I doubt it. He may well become a solid d-man in time - perhaps a senior Kevin Kapstad - but he isn't ready now. The games we lose Pesce in December could be very interesting.

When I look at the roster I see three good forwards, none outstanding (feel free to tell me I'm selling Goumas short). I see four d-men who should range from solid to near-outstanding, but have seemed uneven so far this year. And two goalies that are adequate to solid, but no better. That's not a lot to work with.

What last year's team seemed to have, for a while, was a coordinated team effort. Tough, gritty, defensive-minded and all onboard. Through three games I've witnessed this year, I haven't figured out what they're trying to do. They can skate with anybody, but then ... what?

Wow, this is a bummer. Somebody straighten me out The turnaround starts Friday night with ZooMass.

The problem in a nutshell is the lack of scoring. UNH's strength has always been their ability to score off the rush. Their first goal Friday night was in that category. But any other kind of offense seems hard to come by. They are not very good keeping the puck in the zone 5-on-5 and, once again, the PP is abysmal. Too much passing around the perimeter with no net presence. Sitting there Friday night I came up with one idea, stick Knodel in front of the net ala Zdeno Chara. Since his playmaking at the point is, shall we say, deliberate, I'd put his size in front of a goalie to wreak some havoc. Just a thought. Other than that, I really don't know what the potential is. I guess Downing and Goumas could play better, like passing the puck more, but guys like Sorkin and Silengo are what they are and unless they get that senior year light going on revelation like some in the past have, their contributions probably won't change over what they have been.

One thing that is distrubing to me is the penalty situation. Over the past few years UNH has been near the top in fewest penalty minutes served. That has gone up this year. And, in the past few years, when they were penalized, they had one of the best penalty kills. I wasn't there Saturday night (wedding to go to) but losing in OT on a PP goal is totally unacceptable.

It's too early to throw in the towel but in the past few years when they made the tournament it was on the strength of their early season results. Those are out the window now, kind of like two years ago. There is time to right the ship, especially since their only two league games have been against the preseason favorite, but it better start this weekend agains UMass.

 

[CrazedUNHfan]

Re: UNH Wildcats 2013-14 Season Thread

Maybe its my youth but I am not on the doom and gloom train just yet.

There is a theory in statistics that everything regresses towards the mean and I think that UNH will do just that. I think that we have played better than our record states and we have played some of the best teams in the country.

In small samples goals are very volatile and can really skew data like we saw last year when we were winning. That is why it is smarter to look at shots on goal in these smaller samples. This works because UNH has been tied or within one goal of their opponent for almost all of the games so far this year. When games are within one goal shots are relatively even and show how a team is truly playing. In the 7 games this year UNH has 4-2-1 record when you base games off of the shot total. That means the UNH has been playing strong hockey but so far have been unlucky in the fact that their shots have not been going in. I know this data isn’t perfect but it shows that UNH has been playing with these teams and deserve better than what we've gotten.

That being said there have been an absurd amount of stupid penalties and defensive breakdowns this year. That needs to go on the seniors and the coaches. The second Lowell goal on Saturday was painful to watch and there have been way too many slashing and holding penalties that are completely avoidable. I say that we have these next 5 games to right the ship. We need at least 4 wins and then I think we have a chance to claw our way back into the picture nationally.

And can I also lament about how terrible the call on TVR was that lead to that power play goal? I guess that was karma for the call on Correale in the Michigan game

 

[scoreboard]

Maybe its my youth but I am not on the doom and gloom train just yet.

There is a theory in statistics that everything regresses towards the mean and I think that UNH will do just that. I think that we have played better than our record states and we have played some of the best teams in the country.

In small samples goals are very volatile and can really skew data like we saw last year when we were winning. That is why it is smarter to look at shots on goal in these smaller samples. This works because UNH has been tied or within one goal of their opponent for almost all of the games so far this year. When games are within one goal shots are relatively even and show how a team is truly playing. In the 7 games this year UNH has 4-2-1 record when you base games off of the shot total. That means the UNH has been playing strong hockey but so far have been unlucky in the fact that their shots have not been going in. I know this data isn’t perfect but it shows that UNH has been playing with these teams and deserve better than what we've gotten.

That being said there have been an absurd amount of stupid penalties and defensive breakdowns this year. That needs to go on the seniors and the coaches. The second Lowell goal on Saturday was painful to watch and there have been way too many slashing and holding penalties that are completely avoidable. I say that we have these next 5 games to right the ship. We need at least 4 wins and then I think we have a chance to claw our way back into the picture nationally.

And can I also lament about how terrible the call on TVR was that lead to that power play goal? I guess that was karma for the call on Correale in the Michigan game

Crazed, I applaud your optimism. The only thing is if you are a good team you should win some games against good teams. They're are 1-5-1 against "good teams." Also, shots on goal is really not indicative if a team is controlling the game. I hope they turn things around. They need to start scoring but I don't see, right now, where that is going to come from.

 

[freak]

Re: UNH Wildcats 2013-14 Season Thread

SOG don't always tell the story. And UNH has a bad habit of padding a goalie's stats with countless, unscreened shots right into the gut that have little chance of a rebound.

 

[Snively65]

Re: UNH Wildcats 2013-14 Season Thread

SOG don't always tell the story. And UNH has a bad habit of padding a goalie's stats with countless, unscreened shots right into the gut that have little chance of a rebound.

Definitely the case on Friday night, as we watched from Section 112 behind Hellebucyk for two of the three periods.

 

[e.cat]

Re: UNH Wildcats 2013-14 Season Thread

Crazed, I applaud your optimism. The only thing is if you are a good team you should win some games against good teams. They're are 1-5-1 against "good teams." Also, shots on goal is really not indicative if a team is controlling the game. I hope they turn things around. They need to start scoring but I don't see, right now, where that is going to come from.

I have an idea. Stop hitting the post! Shots hitting the post are not included in SOG's as you probably know otherwise their SOG's would be even higher. Some of those post shots are going to start to go in. SOG's are what they are. Scoring starts with getting SOG's. They may not be indicative of "control" but they are integral to scoring and creating chances.

 

[CrazedUNHfan]

Re: UNH Wildcats 2013-14 Season Thread

Crazed, I applaud your optimism. The only thing is if you are a good team you should win some games against good teams. They're are 1-5-1 against "good teams." Also, shots on goal is really not indicative if a team is controlling the game. I hope they turn things around. They need to start scoring but I don't see, right now, where that is going to come from.

But shots on goal is another indication of possession. Good teams control the puck and have the puck in the offensive zone. I will agree that we need to send more guys in front of the net and create some better opportunities. But to do that we need to have the puck in the offensive zone and we have had that. Possession is an important field in hockey prospectus and SOG is one of the only ways that I can calibrate possession with the stats we have.

Here is a quote from hockey prospectus
"While Corsi/possession isn't the only thing that matters, it certainly is the overwhelmingly most important factor that teams can control, as Gabe Desjardins has stated: "Fenwick/Corsi and Luck account for around 3/4 of team winning percentage. What's the remainder? Goaltending talent - which Tom Awad estimates at about 5% - and special teams, along with a very small sliver that's due to shooting talent and the oft-mentioned 'shot quality.'" "

So right now I think we have had bad luck and some really bad special teams play. One of our goalies are bound to get hot and I don't think that there is any true lack of shooting talent on the team. We may not have any true snipers but they all can shoot.

 

[NCAA watcher]

Re: UNH Wildcats 2013-14 Season Thread

There is a theory in statistics that everything regresses towards the mean and I think that UNH will do just that.

Boy, I hope not.

Re: past results/future performance.

No current UNH player has finished higher than 40th in USHL scoring. The highest ranked player is Goumas (40th), and not surprisingly, he leads UNH in scoring. (Of interest, Mike Vecchione is currently 14th in USHL scoring.)
Only one has earned any sort of USHL honor (Brett Kostolansky, all-rookie team).

Greg Burke 256th in USHL scoring
Brett Kostolansky 144th
Scott Pavelski 80th
Dalton Speelman 43d
Kevin Goumas 40th
Eric Knodel 127th
Nick Sorkin 61st
Justin Agosta 164th
Jeff Silengo 164th
Casey Thrush 82nd
Jay Camper 198th
Maxim Gaudreault 79th
Jamie Hill 54th
Matias Cleland 63rd

The law of averages would dictate that in 4 years (160 USHL top-40 spots), and only 30 or so competitive DI teams, a team would have someone higher, but UNH managed not to.
Only a crazy person would expect a team with that sort of talent procurement to be competitive in a major division.

For comparison purposes, Vecchione finished 15th in USHL scoring. UNH has now gone 5 years without a top 40 USHL scorer, regardless of age.

For reference, Vecchione has 5 points in 7 games as a frosh, and would be UNH's 4th leading scorer

 

[C-H-C]

Re: UNH Wildcats 2013-14 Season Thread

Last season, Tyler Kelleher was the leading scorer for the US National Team Development Program Under 18 team. In the 30 USHL games that Kelleher and the U18 team played in, he had 11 goals and 11 assists.

So far this season:

Andrew Poturalski (2014 recruit) is tied for 4th in scoring in the USHL with 7 goals and 10 assists in 9 games. Poturalski's junior career has followed a similar trajectory as Mike Vecchione's in that he wisely chose to play an extra season in the USHL before going to college.

Shane Eiserman (2014), who has missed the last 2 Dubuque Fighting Saints' games because he is playing for Team USA in the World Junior A Challenge, is Dubuque's 2nd leading scorer with 2 goals and 4 assists in 8 games.

Jason Kalinowski (2015 recruit) is the 6th leading scorer in the USHL with 3 goals and 12 assists in 9 games.

Michael McNicholas (2015 recruit) is tied for 6th place in scoring in the BCHL with 8 goals and 14 assists in 21 games.

It's early in the season so it's impossible to predict what the stats will be for these recruits at the end of the season.

Top scorers in the USHL and BCHL often are impact players in their freshman year of college (e.g., Mike Szmatula-NU, Vince Hinostroza-ND). Phil DeSimone and Blake Kessell were the last high-scoring USHLers to be impact players as freshmen at UNH. Grayson Downing was a top scorer in the BCHL and had 23 points as a freshman.

 

[Aerman]

Re: UNH Wildcats 2013-14 Season Thread

Poturalski's junior career has followed a similar trajectory as Mike Vecchione's in that he wisely chose to play an extra season in the USHL before going to college.

That's one way to describe what happened

 

[Chuck Murray]

Re: UNH Wildcats 2013-14 Season Thread

But shots on goal is another indication of possession. Good teams control the puck and have the puck in the offensive zone. I will agree that we need to send more guys in front of the net and create some better opportunities. But to do that we need to have the puck in the offensive zone and we have had that. Possession is an important field in hockey prospectus and SOG is one of the only ways that I can calibrate possession with the stats we have.

Here is a quote from hockey prospectus
"While Corsi/possession isn't the only thing that matters, it certainly is the overwhelmingly most important factor that teams can control, as Gabe Desjardins has stated: "Fenwick/Corsi and Luck account for around 3/4 of team winning percentage. What's the remainder? Goaltending talent - which Tom Awad estimates at about 5% - and special teams, along with a very small sliver that's due to shooting talent and the oft-mentioned 'shot quality.'" "

So right now I think we have had bad luck and some really bad special teams play. One of our goalies are bound to get hot and I don't think that there is any true lack of shooting talent on the team. We may not have any true snipers but they all can shoot.

Let's leave the absurd pseudo-statistical over-analysis to baseball, can we, please? Just because Bill James and his staff of a half-dozen "Dungeons & Dragons" devotees can justify their existence in another sport, where measurable events are more individualized and repetitive, has NO bearing on hockey - a sport of perpetual motion and countless variables - whatsoever.

SOG's mean absolutely zero. Goals mean everything, and you get those from being talented and creative with the puck, understanding some basics of system play, having an understanding and anticipation of the flow of play, and the determination to win key battles for the puck. And you prevent them from being defensively disciplined, having a clear understanding of your team's defensive system, and how you fit into that system at ALL times to minimize the opposition's chances of generating a quality shot. That determination thingie also figures pretty prominently on the defensive side of the equation, too.

The idea that this all comes down to "luck" or "calibration" or "volatility of small samples" is laughable and incredibly naive. Left unchecked, I'm sure it's only a matter of time before the pocket protector brigade puts forth some compelling pseudo-data about "shot counts" and the need to "rest goalies" and "bring in the set-up man and closer" in the third period. God, please give me strength ... they've ruined one sport already, now they're going for the rest, arrrrrggggghhhhhh ...

 

[Snively65]

Re: UNH Wildcats 2013-14 Season Thread

Well, I do not think that "SOGs mean absolutely zero." However, at Tsongas on Friday night, I do not think many of the UNH SOGs tested Hellebucyk.

But, I do think that games can be won or lost in the face off circle.

 

[sonar]

Re: UNH Wildcats 2013-14 Season Thread

Let's leave the absurd pseudo-statistical over-analysis to baseball, can we, please? Just because Bill James and his staff of a half-dozen "Dungeons & Dragons" devotees can justify their existence in another sport, where measurable events are more individualized and repetitive, has NO bearing on hockey - a sport of perpetual motion and countless variables - whatsoever.

SOG's mean absolutely zero. Goals mean everything, and you get those from being talented and creative with the puck, understanding some basics of system play, having an understanding and anticipation of the flow of play, and the determination to win key battles for the puck. And you prevent them from being defensively disciplined, having a clear understanding of your team's defensive system, and how you fit into that system at ALL times to minimize the opposition's chances of generating a quality shot. That determination thingie also figures pretty prominently on the defensive side of the equation, too.

The idea that this all comes down to "luck" or "calibration" or "volatility of small samples" is laughable and incredibly naive. Left unchecked, I'm sure it's only a matter of time before the pocket protector brigade puts forth some compelling pseudo-data about "shot counts" and the need to "rest goalies" and "bring in the set-up man and closer" in the third period. God, please give me strength ... they've ruined one sport already, now they're going for the rest, arrrrrggggghhhhhh ...

Hang in there Chuck .... I hear there is a new analysis on the way. It has something to do with measuring "grip tightness on stick" as a function of "uptightness behind the bench" .... or gts/ubb. Probably just a rumor though.

 

[Greg Ambrose]

Re: UNH Wildcats 2013-14 Season Thread

Well, I do not think that "SOGs mean absolutely zero." However, at Tsongas on Friday night, I do not think many of the UNH SOGs tested Hellebucyk.

But, I do think that games can be won or lost in the face off circle.

SOG mean something, but only based on where the shot attempts come from. When it comes to the ability to score, there is no greater indicator of potential success than a shot chart. Anything beyond 15-20' and anything that is not in the vicinity of the slot, to me, reduces the chances of scoring. One of my pet peeves when it comes to the UNH offense is the insistence that they set up a potential scorer from the right or (mostly) left face off dot. UNH had great success from that area when Jason Krog was firing pucks, but not much since. I have been watching hockey for a loooong time. My observation is that the vast majority of goals, especially on the PP, come on tips and rebounds. If you don't get guys in front of the net, you are not going to score, at least consistently.

I also want to comment on the Watcher/CHC debate about recruits. I think, by and large, Watcher's criticism is spot on. Past performance is surely an indicator of future results. If an incoming 19 or 20 year old freshman has been a middling scorer in juniors, it is doubtful that he will blossom when he reaches college. I have come to the conclusion over the past few years that UNH will no longer be able to compete for most first or second tier players. The competition from BC, BU, ND, the BTHC, etc. is just too stiff and will, no doubt, get stiffer as time goes on. I'd like to see UNH start emphasizing the reruitment of younger players, i.e. Pesce. Get them in early, groom them for a year or so, get a couple of productive years out of them and send them on their way. Clearly what UNH is doing now is not working. Time to try something different.

 

[CollegeHockeyRinkReport]

Re: UNH goalie situation

Re: UNH goalie situation

Kevin Goumas one of 20 candidates for Senior CLASS Award.

http://www.sbncollegehockey.com/201...t-michigan-sam-brittain-denver-greg-carey-slu

 

[C-H-C]

I don't think there is any disagreement that recruits who are middle to low tier scorers in the USHL are less likely to become high-scoring NCAA players. As I said in my last post, prior to Tyler Kelleher, the last high-scoring USHLers to come to UNH were Phil DeSimone and Blake Kessel (and I should have included Mike Sislo). Occasionally, a recruit who was no higher than a top-40 scorer in his USHL career will blossom into a top-tier NCAA player - Kevin Goumas is an example.

I was making two points in my post. First, focusing only on recruits who played in the USHL overlooks some very good college players. UNH players like Bobby Butler (EJHL), Paul Thompson (EJHL). Austin Block (NAHL), Damon Kipp (BCHL), Connor Hardowa (AJHL), Trevor van Riemsdyk (EJHL), Brett Pesce (EJHL), and Grayson Downing (BCHL) come to mind. I believe that UNH has continued to attract top recruits from these other leagues.

My other point was that the next two recruiting classes include at least 3 players - Poturalski, Eiserman, and Kalinowski - who have a good chance of being top scoring forwards in the USHL.

I also think UNH is doing a pretty good job of recruiting younger juniors who blossom early, come to UNH as true freshmen and have a big impact as freshmen and sophomores. Certainly, Brett Pesce, who committed to UNH when he was 16 years old, is such a player. Tyler Kelleher was also 16 when he committed to UNH. Shane Eiserman, who projects to be drafted in the 3rd or 4th round of next summer's NHL draft, made his verbal commitment to UNH at age 15. In fact, for UNH, gaining commitments from 16-year-old prospects is now more the rule than the exception.