Re: UNH Recruits: 2012-2016
Re: UNH Recruits: 2012-2016
Josh,
First a little about me. I grew up in Lee (I should update my profile as I moved 5 years ago) and remember my first UNH games in the late 70's as a kid with my dad. He has had season tickets for as long as I can remember, we are both Alumni (and "Friends"). I graduated with my BS in 97. I have met the coaching staff at different functions but all informally, and wouldn't say I know any of them. When Umile talks to the rotary club yearly I am a guest at the meeting and my father aways introduces me as being present because the Coach is is speaking and it is now a yearly chuckle. The one year I was out of town on business Coach had some funny remark about the absence of the usual guest. I used to follow all of college hockey as close as I could, which in the beginning was hard, I am one of the long time visitors here I go back several "message boards" but rarely post.
I would have ask if you pay attention to only UNH or do you look as closely at every program? The recruiting game has changed so much in the last 6-8 years that comparing "loss of commitments" from one era to the next is simply not fair.
I will admit since I took over a "new" position at work in Aug 2007, work has been crazy (crap it has been 4.5+ years) and has squeezed out keeping track of hockey as closely as I did in the past. I am lucky I read your post in a relavant time frame. I will keep that perspective in mind.
Off the top of my head Adam Erne, Anthony DeAngelo and Robert Polesello never made it to campus. Should Mike Bavis be criticized for what just happened with Polesello? No, its all part of the game. Its his job to recruit the best players and when Polesello was 15 and BU needed to make a decision on him it made alot of sense.
See above totally clueless.
Since his arrival UNH has only missed the NCAA tournament 1 year. To have the talent capable of making the NCAA tournament on an annual basis is very impressive.
I was a fan during the mid 80's (20 wins in 3 years) so I am not one that dismisses the NCAA run.
Id really like to see UNH enhance the locker room, build a lounge (which just about every other team has one) and potentially build their own weight room (which alot of other teams have). These things DO make a difference. Since Scott Borek has arrived there have been zero tangible changes made. BU built a palace 1 hour away. Merrimack renovated their entire rink/locker room. Northeastern has built a first class players only weight room and renovated the locker room. Maine has renovated their entire facility. If you think these things do not make his job MUCH more challenging than you are sadly mistaken.
I would agree this is unfortunate but unless some folks with big dollars show-up it isn't going to change the school doesn't have the money. But I do have a hard time with this excuse. Yes others facilities have improved but UNH still has better facilities than many. I don't see behind the walls but I have a hard time with rating Lawler above the Whitt.
You focus on the negatives,
Well not really. I focus on reality (and it sucks at times) and trends. Look at this string of numbers 28, 20, 26, 20, 26, 25, 20, 18, 22, 15. What is the Macro trend of these numbers? I would say down. It happens to be the UNH wins per year in order the last 10 years. Organizations are generally either growing or dieing. The pevious 10 years the numbers were generally pointing up.
It may be coincidence but I don't see the same talent on the ice.
I tend to focus on the positives and I feel Scott Borek has found more overlooked players than any other coach in Hockey East. Bobby Butler was passed over by BC and BU and developed into a Hobey Finalist. Paul Thompson was passed over by BU and BC and developed into a Hobey Finalist. Mike Radja was a first team All-American and the only other school recruiting him was RPI. JVR is the top recruit UNH has ever brought through the doors of the Whit.
I see the guys that grow in the program and it is something that should be a source of pride for the coaches. However Butler & Thompson were really only impact players 1 year of 4. Radja was 2 of four. Roll back 10 years and you had Krog, Haydar, Mowers, Nolan, etc. Many of those guys either hit the ground hard or were impact players 3 years and they were all in the same time frame. Where is that talent? I love the diamonds in the rough. But you also need to get some that aren't so much work for the return.
Tyler Kelleher, Shane Eiserman, Dylan Chanter and Cam Marks are all "A" rated recruits. The future is very bright at UNH and alot of that has to do with outstanding recruiting.
I would agree there is some fantastic potential, an exciting potential. But it take several years of that kind of talent to get there... Based on current trends will it get on campus. In my book it doesn't count until the talent actually wears the sweater.
Anyone who follows the UNH program knows that in the last 8 years admissions has changed a great deal for the UNH Hockey program and there was a learning curve associated with that change.
This has been sucky. I wish the learning curve hadn't been so slow. I am also surprised there hasn't been some leverage put on admissions. For the first time since I can remember UNH had adds on 9 asking for applicants the past spring. Even a reminder of when replies are do.
You feel there has been a drop off in talent level yet we averaged 23 wins per season? There are not many people in college hockey that would be unhappy with averaging 23 wins per season. All in all I think the UNH Coaching staff has done a great job and will eventually win the big one. Support the team. Support the staff. It all helps, trust me.
I look at the trend not just the average. Averages can hide what is happening. I have been taught when looking at monthly fiancial data to look at 3, 6 and 9 month rolling averages to spot trends.
28, 20, 26, 20, 26, 25, 20, 18, 22, 15.
I see two distinct sets in this 10 year run. First 5 average 24 wins per and a fairly stable program. The deviation in this "set" is crazy (16% from average) but I would guess fairly consistent to high performing college atheltics. I look at the last 5, average 20 wins per but I see a downward trend that scares me. We can slice this data a bunch of ways but it starts at 28 and ends at just about half in 15. Worse is the peaks are getting lower and the lows are getting deeper. If I am an executive I want an action plan to pull that trend up from down.
Thanks for the food for thought.
As an aside I think looking at season long team average stats hides what is going on. Is the team trending up, trending down etc. UNH this last year was terrible at PK in the beginning but trend up all year. So does an 84% PK number in late February really mean anything.