UNH- How Far West Do We Go?

[TheGrouchyCat]

That's great. But wait...no beers?!?!

Don't they concession out the concessions? If so, it's another lost $$ opportunity; gotta believe there's more profit if you take those over in-house. It's not a big operation. Run the stuff over from one of the dining halls; not that difficult.

UNH Dining does facilitate concessions.

 

[HockeyRef]

I also tend to believe low double digit wins is not gonna cut it for MS7 to save his job. Perhaps I’m overly optimistic, but I can’t believe the university will accept that level of mediocrity long term, especially with potential lost revenue (less butts in seats) as others have been discussing. As we have mentioned before, one has to wonder what would have happened if Hellsten didn’t play lights out down the stretch 2 seasons ago to get us to 20 wins.

Regarding other coaching hires, I agree it’s been fairly mediocre across the board, BUT the women’s HC extension has seemed to be OK. They are holding their own in HEA in 5th place, within shouting distance of 3rd, and just bested said 3rd place team (on the road) in Worcester. I think last year too they finished in 7th? While I think we all want better, I imagine we would trade these results with the men’s situation the last 1.5 years in a 10/10 times. They certainly haven’t been lights out, but are playing much better compared to the men.

Also, remember that a 6th place finish and a blowout in Maine was “enough” to earn a 3 year extension for MS7 two years ago. I would be fairly surprised if the women’s coach does not get another extension should next season finish similar to the prior 2.


On your last note, I think Andy Jones would be an interesting hire, as he seems to be a coach “on the rise” as UML seems to have taken a bit of a hit since he left, and Bentley has certainly stepped up their game since he arrived. With the prestige of HE and (perhaps) more resources, would he make the move to Durham? Or would he perhaps try to wait out UML if they have a quick hook to remove Bazin after a few lackluster years?

Just a point about the U not accepting mediocrity long term? Well seems they are just fine with that...no trip to a Regional since 2013...no trip to the Garden since 2015...when are they going to have enough mediocrity to make a change? Time will tell I guess..

Asking for a friend...

 

[JB]

UNH Dining does facilitate concessions.

Yup, which is also why I assume it is a high margin operation... also they do a good job of keeping shrinkage (loss in retail terms) to a minimum, lets just say don't eat the popcorn, no telling how many months it has been recycled.

 

[JB]

Just a point about the U not accepting mediocrity long term? Well seems they are just fine with that...no trip to a Regional since 2013...no trip to the Garden since 2015...when are they going to have enough mediocrity to make a change? Time will tell I guess..

Asking for a friend...

Historically UNH has pretty much always accepted mediocrity with the exception of Hockey.

Bill Bowes was head football coach 27 years, average finishing 3rd in league, 6 times league champ and 4 trips to the NCAAs. Now a .620% winning percentage seems really good winning 5 of every 8 games over 27 years. Problem is in football success is at least 1 more win, really 2 more wins, every 8 games. This is why UNH finished 3rd and 4th over and over and over. Impressively, in 27 years UNH finished less than 4th in league only 3 times... meaning they were rarely great and never bad, just rather mediocre. Really until very recently the football team played in a "stadium" that wasn't as good as many NH high schools.

We could get into Basketball... but that is mostly accepting a train wreck and UVM has shown that was not a given for a small New England University.

etc.

 

[Potluck]

Perhaps I’m overly optimistic, but I can’t believe the university will accept that level of mediocrity long term

Santos just left UNH for UPenn for more money. Marc Hubbard left UNH soccer for more money. UNH's admissions rate is 88%. Think about that. UNH is committed to mediocrity. Mediocre pay for mediocre results. The problem is institutional and with NH state government, not simply with the hockey program. The place it being run by mediocre people looking to remain employed.

It's laughable to apply private business principles to a state run institution. Public service, which is what UNH is, doesn't follow business principles. It's controlled by politics. If things ever change at UNH it will be because poliiticians want change and are willing to pay for it. It literally is that simple. UNH by law cannot go out of business. UNH is not a for profit enterprise. There are no shareholders. Business calculations are essentially meaningless.

Back of the envelope math calculations are only used by government officials to provide an excuse for something they have prioritized often for other reasons - lobbyist pressure or large scale constituent interest. Politicians are interested in what contituents and lobbyists tell them is important. That's it. If contituents and lobbyists leaned on politicians in NH for more funding for UNH it would happen overnight.

Government is about priorities. Nothing more. Many are truly noble but some are not. Business principles have almost no relevance to government operations.

 

[FlagUp17]

Just a point about the U not accepting mediocrity long term? Well seems they are just fine with that...no trip to a Regional since 2013...no trip to the Garden since 2015...when are they going to have enough mediocrity to make a change? Time will tell I guess..

Asking for a friend...

Building off of JB’s post, I think part of this “prolonged” bout of mediocrity is also taking into account the departure of Scarano, who I think did many a disservice to the hockey programs, and for whatever reason decided to think UNH was better suited as a football school, and hockey seemed to be more an afterthought with him, especially the lasts 5-7 years of his tenure.

He seemed to be fine with mediocrity (bordering on abysmal) with hockey. The new AD hasn’t been here that long, and I wonder how much of what is still going on is just carryover from Scarano - it can take years to “fix” big issues like this. Mind it I still don’t think she’s done a stellar job since her arrival, but I’ll give her a bit more time to prove herself.

Overall, the more I think of it, I really wouldn’t even consider the last 4-6 years “mediocre”. Outside of the “magic” run 2 years ago, I’d say we have been closer to abysmal (not quite train wreck, but getting close) versus mediocre for quite some time. What JB mentioned I believe is moreso mediocre. In hockey equivalence, I’d say that would be us consistently finishing near .500 in HE, 5th-7th place finish year after year, and maybe a trip to the garden every 3-4 years. I think of Boreks Merrimack, NU, and the current versions of UML and UMA in this bucket. That is certainly NOT the case for us, as you mentioned we haven’t been to the garden in 10+ years.

Accepting mediocrity would honestly be a step up for where we are now…

 

[Potluck]

If UNH was run in any manner like even a poor performing business scholarship football would not exist. If you want to look at a loss leader, look at football. It's a dark hole financially. Why does it exist at UNH? Why is it a scholarship sport? Why does UNH lose millions every year when eliminating it or down grading to non-scholarship wouldn't create much of a ripple with the student body - or 99 percent of NH residents?

If you can figure out the answers to those questions, you will quickly figure out why the lack of funding for the hockey program is not a business or financial issue. And it in no way, shape of form is it a tribute to old fashion NH yankee thrift. it's purely politics. The key people do not care.

 

[Potluck]

I think part of this “prolonged” bout of mediocrity is also taking into account the departure of Scarano, who I think did many a disservice to the hockey programs, and for whatever reason decided to think UNH was better suited as a football school, and hockey seemed to be more an afterthought with him, especially the lasts 5-7 years of his tenure.

You're getting to it. But UNH's insane relationship with football predates Scarano by many decades. Knuckleheads like Bowes, Junie Carbonneau and about 10 others in the school created a highly funded completely silly fiefdom around football that in no way made any financial sense. I literally asked Carbonneau many years ago when he was AD how he could permit UNH to fund football so generously while allowing the hoop team to be a laughinstock.

I told him football just didn't make sense financially. His response? "You are not a serious college in this country if you don't have a competitive football team." Full stop. He then told me to mind my own business and walked away. That was the football crowd at UNH. It likely still is that way.

Basically a group of people prioritized football - irrespective of finances - and made it so. I learned that day how UNH really works. That's precisely how government works.

 

[HockeyRef]

If UNH was run in any manner like even a poor performing business scholarship football would not exist. If you want to look at a loss leader, look at football. It's a dark hole financially. Why does it exist at UNH? Why is it a scholarship sport? Why does UNH lose millions every year when eliminating it or down grading to non-scholarship wouldn't create much of a ripple with the student body - or 99 percents of NH residents?

If you can figure out the answers to those questions, you will quickly figure out why the lack of funding for the hockey program is not a business or financial issue. And it in no way, shape of form is it a tribute to old fashion NH yankee thrift. it's purely politics. The key people do not care.

I will go on record as saying eliminating football would be fine with me...but that would be crazy with all of that $$$ that went into the stadium..
Not to mention the legacy of the librarian would be lost and we can't have that can we?

 

[Potluck]

Flag

I will go on record as saying eliminating football would be fine with me...but that would be crazy with all of that $$$ that went into the stadium..
Not to mention the legacy of the librarian would be lost and we can't have that can we?

That's pretty funny actually.

Eliminating football to help funding other sports would not work. That's good private business thinking but it does not work in government. Money eliminated would get repurposed politically within the university.

 

[TheGrouchyCat]

I will go on record as saying eliminating football would be fine with me...but that would be crazy with all of that $$$ that went into the stadium..
Not to mention the legacy of the librarian would be lost and we can't have that can we?

Plus, Blue Skies feelings would get hurt.

 

[JB]

Building off of JB’s post, I think part of this “prolonged” bout of mediocrity is also taking into account the departure of Scarano, who I think did many a disservice to the hockey programs, and for whatever reason decided to think UNH was better suited as a football school, and hockey seemed to be more an afterthought with him, especially the lasts 5-7 years of his tenure.

He seemed to be fine with mediocrity (bordering on abysmal) with hockey. The new AD hasn’t been here that long, and I wonder how much of what is still going on is just carryover from Scarano - it can take years to “fix” big issues like this. Mind it I still don’t think she’s done a stellar job since her arrival, but I’ll give her a bit more time to prove herself.

Scarano's hang over is the real issue with hockey. As long as Umile was around and not declining with age, as we all do, hockey was safe. Umile had more juice than Scarano. This is the reason the FoH is gone. Once Umile was gone Scarano wanted control of that cash. Under the FoH 50/50 at hockey, went to hockey. Now 50/50 goes somewhere in the athletic department, etc.

UNH is never going to be an athletic power in anything but hockey and maybe not that anymore now, since it has been a generation since it was even "good". Men's and Women's hockey should be title 9 balancing each other with the rest of the sports cleaning up the scraps of whatever is left over.

 

[Darius]

I told him football just didn't make sense financially. His response? "You are not a serious college in this country if you don't have a competitive football team." Full stop. He then told me to mind my own business and walked away. That was the football crowd at UNH. It likely still is that way.

“You can't be a real country unless you have a beer and an airline. It helps if you have some kind of a football team, or some nuclear weapons, but at the very least you need a beer.”
- Frank Zappa

 

[HockeyRef]

Flag

That's pretty funny actually.

Eliminating football to help funding other sports would not work. That's good private business thinking but it does not work in government. Money eliminated would get repurposed politically within the university.

“You can't be a real country unless you have a beer and an airline. It helps if you have some kind of a football team, or some nuclear weapons, but at the very least you need a beer.”
- Frank Zappa

Ahhh good old Frank Zappa. We could really use him and George Carlin right about now but...I digress...

 

[FlagUp17]

Not to change subjects, but going back to our discussion a number of pages back on NFL coaches - The Seahawks coach took 2 seasons to bring home the Lombardi trophy. I think that now means 9 coaches in the post SB era have brought home the big hardware within 2 years of starting.

When you find the right coach, things can change fast. Hopefully the AD takes note…

 

[JB]

Not to change subjects, but going back to our discussion a number of pages back on NFL coaches - The Seahawks coach took 2 seasons to bring home the Lombardi trophy. I think that now means 9 coaches in the post SB era have brought home the big hardware within 2 years of starting.

When you find the right coach, things can change fast. Hopefully the AD takes note…

Fun with AI...

Since 2000 there have been 15 coaches that have won their 1st title with their current program. Two had won one with a previous program 2001 Jerry York wins his first title with BC having previously won at BG. 2007 Rick Comley winning his 1st at Michigan State after winning at Northern Michigan. These two are included in this data. What is excluded is Jerry York's, Sandelin's, Carle's, Lucia's, Gwozdecky's multiple titles, Dean Blais winning his 2nd in 2000 and Jack Parker Title in 2009.

So if we make a table histogram we get this distribution

Year	Qty Coaches
1st	*
3rd	**
4th	*****
5th	**
7th	**
10th	*
11th	*
29th	*

I then did number of NCAA Appearances before winning a title

Previous Appearances	Frequency
1	*
3	******
4	**
5	*
6	*
8	*
9	*
12	*
14	*

Couple of NOTES:
1) this is all AI but seemed reasonable and NO I didn't check in detail
2) AI had a hard time with NCAA Appearances with current team so York is 14 (bunch before BC), Comley is 12 (bunch before MSU), Don Lucia is 9 (bunch before Minn.), Gwozdecky is 5 and I think had 1 or 2 with Miami before Denver... there may be others
3) Gwozdecky is an outlier with an unusually long (re)build at Denver, as is Pecknold with Quinnipiac and I think this is a special case all on its own
4) Brad Berry won his first year at UND and hence first tournament

Statistically (the last 25 years) if you are going to win a title it is in years 3-7 or you are unlikely to get over the hump. Also you are going to start going to the NCAAs Years 1-4 as the leading indicator.

 

[FlagUp17]

Fun with AI...

Since 2000 there have been 15 coaches that have won their 1st title with their current program. Two had won one with a previous program 2001 Jerry York wins his first title with BC having previously won at BG. 2007 Rick Comley winning his 1st at Michigan State after winning at Northern Michigan. These two are included in this data. What is excluded is Jerry York's, Sandelin's, Carle's, Lucia's, Gwozdecky's multiple titles, Dean Blais winning his 2nd in 2000 and Jack Parker Title in 2009.

So if we make a table histogram we get this distribution

Year	Qty Coaches
1st	*
3rd	**
4th	*****
5th	**
7th	**
10th	*
11th	*
29th	*

I then did number of NCAA Appearances before winning a title

Previous Appearances	Frequency
1	*
3	******
4	**
5	*
6	*
8	*
9	*
12	*
14	*

Couple of NOTES:
1) this is all AI but seemed reasonable and NO I didn't check in detail
2) AI had a hard time with NCAA Appearances with current team so York is 14 (bunch before BC), Comley is 12 (bunch before MSU), Don Lucia is 9 (bunch before Minn.), Gwozdecky is 5 and I think had 1 or 2 with Miami before Denver... there may be others
3) Gwozdecky is an outlier with an unusually long (re)build at Denver, as is Pecknold with Quinnipiac and I think this is a special case all on its own
4) Brad Berry won his first year at UND and hence first tournament

Statistically (the last 25 years) if you are going to win a title it is in years 3-7 or you are unlikely to get over the hump. Also you are going to start going to the NCAAs Years 1-4 as the leading indicator.

Nice work putting this together, JB!

As we have talked about before, you don’t even need to look much further than Barr at Maine, Carvel at UMA, early Bazin at UML to see recent examples of guys in HE who have quickly turned things around for a program, leading to national success (in Carvels case, even a national title).

The UMA example I think is most striking. UMA was utterly abysmal for years before Carvel. They hired Carvel who was showing great strides at turning things around at St. Lawrence. After a tough first year at UMA, he QUICKLY got them to national prominence. Yes Makar certainly helped, but hey Carvel sold the program to him, didn’t he? UMA is a school in “cow country” (as some will also say is the same with UNH). They are a state school, so I presume similar available resources. And the coach was able to get them to the top of the mountain, and fast!

Could Jones follow a “similar” trajectory if he ends up in Durham?