So let's play a game then ... let's say a certain Coach X has been leading his program for about a decade, arguably the first three as an apprentice under a guy who had led the program to its greatest heights over a 20+ year stretch, but there was a noticeable downturn during his apprenticeship. Let's give Coach X the benefit of the doubt for those first three years, and lay the blame on his predecessor for that stretch ... but now Coach X as the guy who had been running the show from a recruiting standpoint takes over, and the program really doesn't budge outside of the bottom tier of their conference ... where they previously had enjoyed a long stretch as a top tier team under said predecessor in the same conference, arguably against better (at times legendary) coaching opposition.
Coach X gets his first post-hire "break" - and I make that qualification in reference to the initial "break" that gave him the job when other more experienced D-1 guys were available - when the combination of the virus and a doting
paisan in the AD's office extends him after his worst season to date. Break #2 arrives at the intersection of the departure of said doting
paisan and the arrival of a new AD, who is from a foreign land where D-1 hockey is an afterthought. And a year after kneecapping the most successful Hoops coach in their program's pathetic history due to not getting far above .500 nor progressing in their conference tourney, the new AD is SO impressed by Coach X nudging the historically competitive Hockey program just over .500 (and not progressing in their conference tourney) a year later that Coach X gets another "break" with a 3 year extension. And in Year 1 after Break #2, the program is right back in the sh!tter again.
"
In the mind" of
most competent and experienced D-1 AD's, I don't think most HC's like Coach X ever get the job in the first place ... but if they do, maybe some (or even most, with a personally invested boss) get Break #1, albeit without a full 3 year extension. Not many (if any?) get Break #2, not having done any better in those next 3 seasons, even based on the new AD's previously established criteria with the decision to axe the Hoops HC, producing pretty much the same results with far inferior resources (and history). Break #3 arguably arrived at the end of the 2024/2025 season, where said AD may have had their hands tied from firing/buying Coach X out due to financial constraints during the school's latest 2 year budgetary period being in a high degree of flux.
So there are now two years left on Coach X's deal, and Year 1 is still a heap of smoldering ashes left by the roadside. Coach X has staked a new course for the program, seizing upon the change of the D-1 Hockey recruiting landscape. Break #4, come on down. For once in his underwhelming D-1 coaching career to date, he seems to be at the forefront of a new recruiting niche that has opened up, just in time to make one final push to convince his new boss of his worth. But with lots of other programs either more cautiously behind, or sitting out Year One of these changes, there is no reason to think that if this new strategy proves to be successful, the competition for those players is only going to intensify. And if Coach X still finds himself in the 4th quartile next season ... what is the excuse going to be this time??
So let me ask you Darius ... in whose mind do you think the upcoming season isn't a "make or break" proposition for someone like Coach X???