An encouraging last game to go out on. Enough hints of talent to spark some optimism. But that said, going foward....
Next year's UNH team could have an even harder time scoring goals.
Take out the 14 goals in 3 games vs. Maine, and they average 2.3 per game. Take out those two Maine games, and they won
1 game in regular time, and that one win was by one goal. (They won 3 in OT).
They'll lack upperclass depth and, IMO, will need to depend heavily on the development of younger forwards and newcomers. I'd rather take risks on guys matriculating early than hand over the same roles to juniors and seniors who have proven they don't have the ability and will be long gone by the time UNH improves significantly (by even the most optimistic standards)...
Crookshank will be the only real loss on offense. RW was the weak spot on offense. Grasso was a first line winger and scored on the PP, but was a non-entity during 5x5 play, being on ice for only 8 goals in 23 games. Kelleher too, as the second line RW was only on for 5 5X5 goals in 17 games. Combined, the top two RWs were on ice for only 13 even strength goals in 23 games! (For comparison, Pierson at 18 and Crookshank at 16 beat them themselves.) That's a black hole trying to score at even strentgh. Sato was never an impact player, his surprise junior year notwithstanding.
I think we'll see Kelleher and McAdams back to that group. Neither seems to have solid pro path, but would be valuable to UNH on the RW mostly to give Evans and Cafarelli breathing room to grow without the need to force feed them.
Forwards (70 career goals)...
If Evans can contribute right away and Ward/Pierson progress, that's as dangerous a first line as UNH has had since Tyler Kelleher.
If Ward/Pierson give you this year's production and Evans needs a year to grow into college hockey. Well...[/quote]
I think Evans has very good upside, but at 150 pounds, that's asking a whole lot....... [TABLE="border: 1, cellpadding: 1, width: 500"]
[TR]
[TD]Tyler Ward (18)[/TD]
[TD]Jackson Pierson (19)[/TD]
[TD]John Evans (0)[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Chase Stevenson (4)[/TD]
[TD]Filip Engaras (14)[/TD]
[TD]Nick Cafarelli (1)[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Carson Richels (0)[/TD]
[TD]JP Turner (0)[/TD]
[TD]Cam Gendron (2)[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Will Margel (0)[/TD]
[TD]Lucas Herrmann (3)[/TD]
[TD]Robert Cronin (0)[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Timo Bakos (0)[/TD]
[TD]Liam Devlin (0)[/TD]
[TD]Eric Esposito (6)[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Ring/Sweeney (0/0)[/TD]
[TD]Joseph Cipollone (2)[/TD]
[TD]Joe Hankinson (0)[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
Evans is really the only rookie forward you can expect offense from next year, so they'll need production from:
* Cafarelli, who was benched the final two games but has the best offense of the remaining bunch. His compete level is low, and his conditioning was poor, but maybe he gets it by his sophomore year.
* Richels, who was two steps behind the play this year. His skating was always weak, but his ability to handle passes or to fish out pucks was lower than I expected. He never got to showcase his one skill of shooting.
* return from Stevenson, but also an increase in his offensive game more than he's shown in the past
* continued improvement from Gendron. He's a guy who played a lot better than I expected. He's either the third line center, or I could see throwing him in with one of the top two lines to hold his own there and add a physical element.
Defenders (18 career goals)...
Just bring in the youth to supplement the existing youth, and at least this blueline group will be talented. Going young may not improve this groups' immediate performance, but running out some of the same upperclass names for another year certainly wont. If the FR can get up to speed in a hurry, this could be the best top-to-bottom group they've had in a while. If they can't, at least they'll develop for the years to come...
Totally agree. The strength of the team, and that will be mostly on offense, too, which would be needed to support the weak forwards. Not sure they have a spot for Gagne. Reid is the best player on the team, and Eriksson played well when I was watching him, even when I was expecting to see holes that led to his weak +/- (he was not on for a lot of positive even strength goals, only on pp). I see you agree with my views on Verrier. for the eye test, but he was on for 13 goals 5x5, and only 15 against. (Compared to Eriksson, only on for 12 5X5 goals, but a team high 24 against. So the team scored more when verrier was on the ice than Eriksson.) Maass was a liability his senior year (due to injuries? EDIT: Yes, Souza said he played last portion with shoulder in a sling) being too slow and not a puck handler. A kid like Huard should fill that role (Right handed big D) for less scholarship money. Jenson played much better than I expected. And you know I'm excited by Ardanaz. (Carfagna in 2022 also looks good, and if they bring Gagne in in 2022, that's a good class on D) [TABLE="border: 1, cellpadding: 1, width: 500"]
[TR]
[TD]Kalle Eriksson (6)[/TD]
[TD]Luke Reid (3)[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Will MacKinnon (4)[/TD]
[TD]Nick Ardanaz (0)[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Alex Gagne (0)[/TD]
[TD]Colton Huard (0)[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Nikolai Jenson (0)[/TD]
[TD]Alec Semandel (1)[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Ryan Verrier (4)[/TD]
[TD]Nagle/Hickey (0/0)[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
The team needs to play much better in front of their goaltenders, but Taylor also needs to be a lot better. The question is whether or not Baliotti is accelerated or a one-year senior/grad transfer is brought in to compete for starts. I'd target a one/two-year transfer (over a four-year newcomer) because this team has too many needs and too much recruiting to do to have three scholarship netminders in any year moving forward. The right transfer might be able to start for two seasons, to be honest - before graduating to make way for a Baliotti/Muzselik tandem...
Baliotti has the physical tools (like Taylor) but has a lot to prove. I can't see him being brought in this year after the limited action. And with Muszelik now in place, that's a shot term two year hole, so I bet they have to go for the transfer route.
Another year, another UNH team with some, just not enough, talent. Not enough to be truly competitive, and likely not enough to even battle for home ice. So the question remains, do we tread water and continue to relive the same season, over and over, like ground hog day? Or does something, anything change?
If Souza is truly feeling the pressure or is willing to do what it takes to jump start a UNH rebuild - some upperclassmen/recruits will be encouraged to transfer/look elsewhere for a better fit. In a year that could be unprecedented on the transfer market there could be opportunities for a team to immediately improve themselves, while simultaneously clearing scholarship money for future recruiting classes.
It's not a strategy I've advocated for, or really respected - but these are desperate times for UNH Hockey, IMO. The pipeline indicates that any future under Souza could look A LOT like the last few years unless something significant happens or an aggressive new approach is executed. Hard to be optimistic...
As far as guys who could potentially come back - how much does it serve them or the program to return?
I agree that Souza should have blown out the roster a while ago as most new coaches do, if only just to send a message of change. Of course, he was too deferential to they guy who gave him the job to send the needed message. As we see from Vermont and Maine, being a bottom 4 team still gets the Head Coach at least 8 years, so not sure Souza has any additional external pressure, especially with the Covid excuse of the year. To now, its all been Souza's lack of internal pressure - starting with not recruiting a flood of players his first year. Look at what Vermont has done, and what U.Mass did their first years -- more than 10 new recruits to rebuild. And there's the problem, Souza never saw this as a rebuild.
But as you point out, blowing out the roster doesn't help if you have no eye for talent. Remember, Souza "hit the ground running" and first recruits targeted would be this year's seniors on defense: Corson Green (Jan/16), Lucas Bahn (March/16), and James Miller May/16), and the offense was led by Eric McAdams (11/2015) Joe Sacco (2/2016), Angus Crookshank (4/2016) and Marek Wazny (12/2016). That's a stunning 2 for 7 coming out of the gate and "send a message that UNH is back as a premier destination" (while his surrogates on this board were telling us about how things were humming).
My post from 11/2016
In the year and a half, Souza has gotten one top 2 line kid. B+ recruit (Crookshank)
Let me put it this way, he has a solid incomplete, a year and half in. If he gets Kawaguchi or Bowers up front, and Jake Harrison on the back end, he will have a really nicely rounded out class. But at present, the hardest part of a recruiting class is missing.
So rather than slag high school kids who may well develop, I would just say every team needs them. Sometimes they hit even when their profile says no. TVR, Saviano, etc.
But competitive teams use those kids to fill out the roster after a foundation of good recruits. Sort of like a rotation, you need an ace, a couple of pretty well known guys, and then several 4th/5th starters for injury, etc. In hockey, a couple of top two line guys or first line defensemen.
Until there is evidence of that, the angst is justifiable.
Originally posted by
Chuck Murray View Post
Like the "Four Horsemen" Souza lured to Storrs to play for Luce Canaan ...
We never did quite finish that discussion. Let's count Thompson, a first rounder, as his. The other "top players" were Masonius, who came to U.Conn from UNH after Souza left, and Letunov, who also fell into U.Conn's lap after Souza left. Leaving aside the seniors who Souza did not recruit (Pauly and Kirkland), and you're really left with defenseman Miles Gendron, an NHL pick who had a nice freshman year.
Is Mr. Smith referring to recruits who have not set foot on campus. Adam Karashuk, who is a good prospect in the USHL (better than his teammate Corson Green), but hardly a blue chippah. Is he counting Evan Wisocky, who is a pretty decent prospect, but had 5 points his rookie USHL season, sort of like Eric Esposito? Again, hardly a blue chippah. So, in actuality, he recruited one top player, and the other two came after he left. He has a couple decent prospects, but none that would warrant the conclusion "Mike Souza is a great recruiter as he essentially beat UNH out for 4 of the best players on the UConn team. I know some will give all the credit to Cavanaugh but they were not his recruits. They started beating us out for the top players that BC/BU/now Prov did not pursue wholeheartedly and Northeastern has beaten us out for some top players."
If you want to go back to his two years at Brown, there's nothing that screams "great recruiter."
Things have picked up a bit since then, and Evans, Ardanaz and a kid like Turner in the past year provide some hope, but the depth isn't there. They are like the Gildon or Crookshanks of the era. The problem is they are accompanied by kids the recruiters identified early and spent capital on -- Sweeney/Ring/Devlin/Margel/Cronin/Winters/Sacco (and the departed Curran) who otherwise were lightly regarded by the scouting community. If you look for the trend of why they are there, its that they were recommendations from or favors for Souza's recruiting network (Austin Prep/Malden Catholic/Boston Advantage/former NHLers), which seems to feed him their second tier kids. And he just relied upon recommendations from that small circle network instead of sending a message that he was casting a wide net. (sound familiar?) Some of the kids have been alright (McAdams, Cafarelli, maybe Verrier, maybe Cronin, maybe Sacco (the second, not the first)), but on the whole, there's been a lot of dead weight in that network.
So, until they make a conscious decision to bring in an outside voice to kill off Souza's role in recruiting and his inherent bias toward "his guys" (remember, his first interviews were all the "family" message, where I was encouraging him to send a message of change and upgrade), they will struggle. He needs his McCloskey to stop him from recruiting every Rob Chebator/Kevin Thomson/Rob Donovan blue collar second tier Boston kid there is. Or, in a current reference, he needs Jerry Keefe to feed him talent that Madigan couldn't get on his own.
It's frustrating, because there's talent there (Crookshank/Gildon/Pierson/Reid, and Evans and Ardanaz, Carfagana and Gagne) to make it tantalizing, but its not consistent or deep enough to clear the hump right now. Sort of like a four cylinder engine working with only two.
