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UNH 2020 Off-Season Thread: That Rinky-Shrinky Thang And Other Lively Banter :D
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Sean Pickett
2009 NCAA Champions
I think it is too soon to evaluate the coaching of Coaches O'Connell, Woodcroft (both which you show as TBD), Borek and Souza (however, early returns don't look promising), especially as you put Coach Madigan in the transformative group. After three seasons Coach Madigan was only slightly better than Coach Souza and behind Coach O'Connell, as well as behind Coach Carvel after five seasons. Furthermore, he took 7 seasons to barely pass Coach Sneddon and and still lags behind Coaches Bazin, Leaman, and York after ten seasons.
Likewise, having Coach Bazin on the bubble and not transformative is not reflective of the facts. He has the highest cumulative winning percentage of all current Hockey East coaches (plus Sneddon) for his first ten seasons. As for postseason success, he has 2 RS titles, 3 tournament titles, 5 NCAA bids and a FF appearance. Coach Madigan has 2 tournament titles and 3 NCAA bids, while Coach Carvel has 1 RS title, 1 NCAA bid and 1 FF appearance. Below is a chart showing each of the current coaches' (plus Sneddon) cumulative winning percentage after each season to date.
Sean
A day that lacked a premier match-up I guess - highest profile would have been North Carolina/South Carolina and Oklahoma/Missouri, and both were blow outs. Also, lots of tournaments.
UNH still playing? Interesting.
Gildon +5 and 0-2-2, in his first three professional games...
Chuck Murray
WIS & Effingwoods Hockey Almanac
I think it is too soon to evaluate the coaching of Coaches O'Connell, Woodcroft (both which you show as TBD), Borek and Souza (however, early returns don't look promising), especially as you put Coach Madigan in the transformative group. After three seasons Coach Madigan was only slightly better than Coach Souza and behind Coach O'Connell, as well as behind Coach Carvel after five seasons. Furthermore, he took 7 seasons to barely pass Coach Sneddon and and still lags behind Coaches Bazin, Leaman, and York after ten seasons.
Likewise, having Coach Bazin on the bubble and not transformative is not reflective of the facts. He has the highest cumulative winning percentage of all current Hockey East coaches (plus Sneddon) for his first ten seasons. As for postseason success, he has 2 RS titles, 3 tournament titles, 5 NCAA bids and a FF appearance. Coach Madigan has 2 tournament titles and 3 NCAA bids, while Coach Carvel has 1 RS title, 1 NCAA bid and 1 FF appearance. Below is a chart showing each of the current coaches' (plus Sneddon) cumulative winning percentage after each season to date.
Sean
Sean, I appreciate the thoughtful and analytical response. I struggled the most with Coach Bazin unquestionably, but the difference between my take and yours might be at least partially due to the trending of the programs in recent seasons. I've been a huge fan of Bazin on here over the years, but there has been some slippage from the program's previous highs, and the similarities to UNH's pre-Souza trend probably colored my thinking a little too strongly? Madigan, on the other hand, has moved his program steadily ahead, and maybe I'm giving him too much credit for 3 Beanpots in a row. He's also up against two high profile programs in the city, whereas Bazin is a little removed from their shadow. I'll concede that Bazin probably belongs in the transformative category as well - arguably neck-and-neck with Madigan. But Bazin's program is slipping a bit, and never quite got there nationally. If his career ended tomorrow, there's a good chance he is viewed as "Umile Light" on overall accomplishments, but gets some points back for not overstaying his welcome, which could be a long-term concern.
Souza is where he is because he had a three year head start, so lots of us up here consider he is on Year Six, and with that assumption, he starts looking more and more like the guy in Storrs that he used to work for. Borek probably suffers with UNH fans like myself from his closeness to the second half of Umile's career, which was the one that looked like the gradual fall-off we see in recent years with Bazin, so I'm probably tainted that way in my assessment of him.
Overall, we appear to agree on York and Leaman at the high end (easy ones), and with Luce and Gendron at the other end (ditto). It will be fascinating to see what BC does when Jerry decides it's time to step aside, and it would be a fun contest maybe to do a "HEA Next Coach Out" pool, as I suspect York will be preceded out the door by several other guys elsewhere.
Sean Pickett
2009 NCAA Champions
Thanks for the reply. Since you brought up Coach Umile I decided to compare the first ten seasons* of your transformative coaches against him and Coach Bazin.
As you can see Coach Bazin had the best cumulative percentage for for each coaches 2nd through 8th seasons, with Coach Umile having the best for the 1st, 9th and 10th seasons. When hardware and post-season success is factored in Coach Umile had yet to win the Hockey East tournament while Coach Bazin already has 3 championships. However, as you mention Coach Bazin hasn't won the regular season title in the past four seasons, nor had post season success during that time, while Coach Umile was just a year removed from his best post-season to date (and better to come shortly). So I agree that Coach Bazin might be on a downward trajectory, but even if he is, I think he is a transformative coach. Before he took over at UML the only other coach with a winning record at the DI level was Coach Crowder, who left for NU after five seasons. At worst I see him like Coach Parker, who had a torrid start to his coaching career before a fallow decade followed by a golden decade.
Looking at all the head coaches all time in Hockey East I would say that the transformative ones were/are: Coaches York, Walsh, Bazin, Umile, Madigan, Leaman, and Carvel (although it is too soon to tell if he will be closer to Coach Umile or Coach York on the transformative scale. I'm now researching every DI head coach for the past 50 years, but just looking at the Hockey East coaches it appears that the transformative and very good ones make themselves known by the end of their fifth season). The coaches I would say were very good were: Coaches Ceglarski, Parker, Quinn, Semler, Whitehead (at Maine) and Crowder (at UML).
Sean
* Coach Carvel only has five seasons at UMass
Chuck Murray
WIS & Effingwoods Hockey Almanac
Semler is a stretch. His best days at UMaine were when they were still technically a D-2 start-up.
Weird seeing Parker in the "very good" category, but since you're a BU guy, you know well that he walked into a pretty good gig to start with.
Maybe someday Merrimack gets their transformative coach ... but I sense Dennehy might be as close as it ever gets, at least while I'm still here on God's green earth.
An opportunity for lots of redemption.
Chuck Murray
WIS & Effingwoods Hockey Almanac
Looks like Red Gendron has set UMaine's bar of expectations fairly low, in his own take on "we're just happy to be here", as it appears in the latest Bangor Daily News piece:
Wednesday will mark the first home contest all season for Maine (3-10-2), which has been playing on the road because of state regulations limiting gatherings. Maine was the only Hockey East team to not play a home game.
“We are all really excited and grateful for this opportunity,” Maine coach Red Gendron, a Berlin native, told the Bangor Daily News. “We have an attitude of gratitude.”
Tough read on the outcome ... two underperforming programs, one which will not have played in almost 3 weeks, and hasn't won a game without a shootout in over a month ... the other playing on a foreign surface (i.e. its home ice) for the first time in over a year, which has won one (1) game without a shootout in almost two months, and a coach "just happy to he here".
If MS7 can avoid airing his own "attitude of gratitude" (blech), WIS predicts:
UNH 4 UMaine 2
From his penthouse office high atop the Encore Boston Harbor Casino in picturesque Everett MA, WIS bookmaker Michel "Mikey" Nostradamus has also set a secondary line, where you can get 3:1 odds on the losing coach being relieved of his duties by Memorial Day. More adventurous bettors can get 9:1 odds on the winning coach also being relieved of his duties.
We'll be hearing more from Mikey on the Effingwoods Hockey Almanac thread after UNH's next loss ...
Wednesday will mark the first home contest all season for Maine (3-10-2), which has been playing on the road because of state regulations limiting gatherings. Maine was the only Hockey East team to not play a home game.
“We are all really excited and grateful for this opportunity,” Maine coach Red Gendron, a Berlin native, told the Bangor Daily News. “We have an attitude of gratitude.”
Tough read on the outcome ... two underperforming programs, one which will not have played in almost 3 weeks, and hasn't won a game without a shootout in over a month ... the other playing on a foreign surface (i.e. its home ice) for the first time in over a year, which has won one (1) game without a shootout in almost two months, and a coach "just happy to he here".
If MS7 can avoid airing his own "attitude of gratitude" (blech), WIS predicts:
UNH 4 UMaine 2
From his penthouse office high atop the Encore Boston Harbor Casino in picturesque Everett MA, WIS bookmaker Michel "Mikey" Nostradamus has also set a secondary line, where you can get 3:1 odds on the losing coach being relieved of his duties by Memorial Day. More adventurous bettors can get 9:1 odds on the winning coach also being relieved of his duties.
We'll be hearing more from Mikey on the Effingwoods Hockey Almanac thread after UNH's next loss ...
Chuck Murray
WIS & Effingwoods Hockey Almanac
I guess it wasn't just BvR who wasn't excited about spending any "bonus" time in Durham then.
Unless there is a miracle UNH-UVM final, they've all already played their last home game, too.
With this development, I believe there are no remaining Umile Era players left on the roster.
It also doesn't feel like this mass exodus is a ringing endorsement of his successor, either.
Can't imagine Crookshank returning to this. Wonder if Pierson is exploring other options?
If the cupboard isn't totally barren quite yet, it's looking a lot more bare than at any time I can recall in my 40+ years of following the program. Hard to think it can get much worse, but we may find out otherwise by this time next season. Ugh.
HockeyRef
Well-known member
Wonder if they (departing Srs) got the 'we loved you but...time to move on...' kind of message? I don't know why they would want to stay another year if I'm being honest in the first place, anywhere, not just UNH. Of course it will be interesting to see / find out if possible (not too hard to do with HE schools) how many 2021 Seniors anywhere decide to stay that extra year? I imagine some will. Personally with the last year and a half being what it is/was...I'd be moving on too.
NCAA watcher
Registered User
HockeyRef
Well-known member
...And with the Sr. postings (the farewells) how do we know they didn't just do that out of courtesy/expectation? Hmmm....and with your post 'Watcher could be some interesting players to be snapped up, just sayin'. All of that said UNH has quite a few slated to come in next year, if I have that right. Will be interesting!
Sean Pickett
2009 NCAA Champions
His second season in ECAC DI was his second best season, although his second overall and second in DII was his best. I guess I gave him so credit for starting up a program from scratch and going a pretty good job.
I would say he followed BU's transformative coach, Coach Kelley (Coach Abbott having only coached for 1+ seasons), and did an excellent job of maintaining the high standards Coach Kelley set for half of his 40 seasons. Unfortunately, he also had a decade long fallow period, as well as other less than stellar seasons sprinkled across his last 16 seasons.
So, I've been think a bit more about your term "transformative coach." I've started to research every coach of every DI team going back to WWII and of the Hockey East teams these are the coaches I think have been transformative for each program:
Boston College: Coach York
Boston University: Coach Kelley
Connecticut: none
Maine: Coach Walsh
Massachusetts: Coach Carvel (tentative)
UMass Lowell: Coach Bazin
Merrimack: Coach Lawler
New Hampshire: Coach Umile
Northeastern: Coach Madigan (tentative)
Providence: Coach Leaman
Vermont: none
I've also started on the NCHC teams and here are the 4 I've completed:
Colorado College: Coaches Tompson and Lucia
Denver: Coaches Armstrong and Gwozdecky
Miami: Coach Blasi
Minnesota-Duluth: Coach Sandelin
Sean
Chuck Murray
WIS & Effingwoods Hockey Almanac
I agree with most of your takes, including UConn (no surprise) and UVM (a few good years here and there for both Gilligan and Sneddon, but never really sustained). You chose Lawler for Merrimack - presumably using a Semler "start-up" measure - instead of Ron Anderson, whom I believe was the guy who elevated Merrimack from D-II into Hockey East. Anderson gets my nod, but if we consider program elevation from D-II then Coach Riley (Lowell) probably needs to be in the discussion too?
I do know that many of my UNH colleagues would disagree with Umile instead of Holt, and as much as I'd like to agree with them, objectively I still have to give it to Umile. Sadly, though, neither man did themselves a favor by struggling with poor teams at the end of their respective illustrious careers. And I hold that more against Umile, because he saw what Holt went through, and still decided to hang around too long instead of opting for an earlier, more graceful exit. I get it - when you're an extremely successful coach, you always think the next great team is just around the corner, and you think you can turn chicken crap into chicken salad. But part of that comes down to whether you want to put the same necessary work into the program as you age. It's what makes Coach York so successful, and what most observers will say tripped up Umile later on.
Right now, I find the Carvel situation most interesting. Will UMass continue to thrive, or will there be a backslide? At SLU it took him two years to get to a winning program, and ditto at UMass. I think the UMass situation was the more challenging of the two, and a more impressive accomplishment. He's not an old guy ... but he's not a youngster either (50) and whether he stays in Amherst for the duration, looks at other prime established D-1 programs OR takes a shot at the NHL, where he was an assistant at Ottawa for a half-dozen years before leaving for SLU ... we'll probably get an answer on that in the next couple of years. If he stays ... will he be Bazin, will he exceed Bazin, or will he too begin to gradually fall off?
Thanks again for engaging, Sean. Fun to have this kind of discussion once in awhile.
Chuck Murray
WIS & Effingwoods Hockey Almanac
After one period: UNH 1 UMaine 0
After 3 minutes of the 2nd period: UNH 3 UMaine 1
UMaine has since countered, down by 3-2 but going on the PP midway in the second
After 3 minutes of the 2nd period: UNH 3 UMaine 1
UMaine has since countered, down by 3-2 but going on the PP midway in the second
Chuck Murray
WIS & Effingwoods Hockey Almanac
Tyler Ward SHG
UNH 4 UMaine 2
I think this was my end-of-game prediction. Rooting for no more goals.
UNH 4 UMaine 2
I think this was my end-of-game prediction. Rooting for no more goals.
Chuck Murray
WIS & Effingwoods Hockey Almanac
After two periods: UNH 4 UMaine 2
UNH goals so far: Eriksson (1st period); MacAdams, Pierson, Ward (2nd period)
Sounds like SOG's are running very lopsided for UNH, 30-ish to 10-ish
Alfond looks (and sounds) very strange without fans in the stands ...
UNH goals so far: Eriksson (1st period); MacAdams, Pierson, Ward (2nd period)
Sounds like SOG's are running very lopsided for UNH, 30-ish to 10-ish
Alfond looks (and sounds) very strange without fans in the stands ...
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