Re: UNH 2018-19: Souza The Opportunity
Do we have the talent with Naz, Grasso, Blackburn(?), Crookshank, Pierson?
Do they have the talent? Maybe? They've managed exactly 2.00 goals per game and despite facing just one top-15 defense they rank 50th in GPG. The first thing they need to do is get Blackburn back into the top-six so that their six best offensive forwards are playing together on their top-two lines....
Nazarian - Pierson - Kelleher
Crookshank - Blackburn - Grasso
And while that group looks good on the computer screen - how dangerous are they really? I think the four upperclassmen are really secondary scoring pieces on a good college hockey team - put those two lines behind a first line with Poturalski and Kelleher types and you've got something cooking. Move everyone up a line and things start to look differently.
Nazarian has probably been UNH's best forward this season, but he's more of a skate hard/work hard make things happen type. He only scored 12 goals in his 60-game USHL season. Grasso was a solid scorer but not an elite one in the USHL and even that didn't occur until late in his junior career. I think expectations for what Grasso really is are skewed by his FR numbers skating alongside Kelleher on an elite PP (where he scored half his goals). That said, he certainly has had chemistry with Blackburn in the past so why they aren't playing together is a mystery to me. Kelleher is a pass-first creator but who is the natural and experienced goal scorer to pair him with? Blackburn scored at a solid clip in a higher-scoring junior league, but again, not an elite one. His lack of foot speed holds him back from being a premier player. Crookshank is a similar case to Blackburn - but with more speed, he should be very good, but he looks like a FR who needs time for his feel for the game to catch up to his feet. Pierson is the only player with a truly elite scoring track-record - but he has never showcased it at a level higher than prep school. He is off to a great start, we'll see how he handles it when teams realize they need to be focusing on him and not Grasso/Nazarian/Blackburn, etc...
So even UNH's best offensive pieces are a lot of complimentary type scorers. This is the team that needs a straw to stir the drink type of forward. Add a Poturalski or TK to this group - adding 25-25-50 at least and lifting a bunch of capable line-mates to the next level? You might have a team ready to compete at a high level. Without that guy? What we see might be what we get - with a modest improvement up to 2.5-2.75 goals per game later in the year. My honest expectations are a continued struggle to score this year - with an improvement next year when BVR, Grasso, Blackburn are seniors, CK is a third-year skater and the two FR put it all together. But after that, the three seniors will graduate and they'll become a one-line team again without the depth to support them. They'll also be without Wyse and Gildon at the very least (potentially Maass, too). The current reinforcements on both sides of the blue line don't offer a lot of excitement outside of Stutzle. So again you're looking at some real nice pieces but a lack of depth. At that point, its probably Pierson, Crookshank and Kelleher who take their turn catching heat for not doing it all...
---
The next four opponents are Boston College (who's allowed six goals in their last four games after a tough start), Massachusetts (1.89 GA/GM - 6th), Miami (1.83 GA/GM - 5th) and Providence (1.56 GA/GM - 3rd), so its not going to get any easier for the offense. What can they do to create more chances? Here are four ideas (in addition to putting Blackburn where he belongs)...
1) They have to be more aggressive in transition - reckless even (packing it in and trying to win games with a goal or two just isn't going to work) - picking up pucks, turning and going immediately. I can only remember three true odd-man rushes for UNH this year. They've scored on two of them - two on ones versus CC and BU. Take some chances springing the zone when you see your teammates gain possession. When you're attacking the blue line - skate hard and drive the net. With and without the puck. ATW's analysis of their zone entries is spot on. Its time to wheel, wheel, wheel...
2) Get to the net. Hard. As with the transition game - this is something they say they want to do, so they need to make a concerted effort to do it. Over do it if need be. Someone should be at the top of the crease at all times and if thats the strategy they need to make a better effort to get more shots on net. 11-20 shots per game wont cut it. All of the lines can do this, it takes little skill. Certainly the top two lines listed above can - but the line that might be truly exceptional at this type of game would be Esposito-Vela-MacAdams. I'd keep BVR as my roving extra-forward since he can do so many things.
3) Give Fregona and Cipollone a chance. Fregona scored goals and points at just about the same rate in the BCHL as Crookshank and Blackburn. I wouldn't put him on their level, but he can skate and create at a high level. Its time to give him a real chance. Cipollone tore up the Eastern Junior league (yeah, yeah) - but also skated a regular shift in the USHL for a time and managed four goals in 12 BCHL games. They're a clear skill upgrade over what UNH is currently running out on its fourth-line in my opinion and certainly junior pedigree and track record would indicate that. The current group is racking up the negative plus-minus so if they're in there for goal prevention it may be time to look at some other players. Impress on Fregona and Cipollone that they'll stay in the line-up by skating hard and being responsible, with the hope that their offensive gifts might also offer at least some depth scoring. Forth line - Fregona-Miller-Cipollone.
4) Tinker with the PP's. Without getting into too much depth on what the PP might look like - some simple changes pop to mind immediately. Try Vela at the front of the net on the first unit, setting screens, tipping pucks and cleaning up messes a la Bowers for BU. He's good at this and with Gildon's putting pucks on net there are lots of opportunities for a bigger more rugged body. Give Boyd a chance on a wing for the second unit - one thing he has certainly developed over the last few years in my eyes is his slapshot and one-timer. He's got a bomb, put him in a position to use it. In general, lets get a lot more movement on the PP - overlaps, rotations, etc...
---
As for penalties and the PK - I believe the biggest issue in the BU game was letting Bowers get to the net and stand there. He set the screen that led to the first goal and scored the second on a rebound. You can't just let guys stand there. Move him and its a much different story...
