UMaine Black Bears, 2017-2018 season, is this Reds last stand?

[Drew S.]

Re: UMaine Black Bears, 2017-2018 season, is this Reds last stand?

I'm very happy with 4-6 at this stage and think Maine has put themselves in great position to finish .500. The schedule in the second half is much easier and the games that really county are against UNH, UMass, and Merrimack. Those are the games Maine needs to win.

 

[amkirby10]

What good would it have done if Maine played great and lost 3-1?

Psychological element and confidence purposes. I'm not here to sound the alarm bells, but it defintely does matter. After turning in two pretty good performances against the preseason favorites for the conference title, to be absolutely smoked 7-0 could blunt any momentum they may have had right here, while turning in a hard fought 3-1 L could have kept the mojo flowing.

 

[walrus]

Re: UMaine Black Bears, 2017-2018 season, is this Reds last stand?

Psychological element and confidence purposes. I'm not here to sound the alarm bells, but it defintely does matter. After turning in two pretty good performances against the preseason favorites for the conference title, to be absolutely smoked 7-0 could blunt any momentum they may have had right here, while turning in a hard fought 3-1 L could have kept the mojo flowing.

+1. It would have showed some heart, it would have showed the staff had them ready to go.

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[Drew S.]

Re: UMaine Black Bears, 2017-2018 season, is this Reds last stand?

Psychological element and confidence purposes. I'm not here to sound the alarm bells, but it defintely does matter. After turning in two pretty good performances against the preseason favorites for the conference title, to be absolutely smoked 7-0 could blunt any momentum they may have had right here, while turning in a hard fought 3-1 L could have kept the mojo flowing.

If you look at the last couple of years though Maine has had a lot of good performances where they have lost and it doesn't seem like those helped them at all. I think in a lot of cases its easier just to say we were second best and move on to the next game. Maine was awful Friday night against Miami and then played great Saturday night.

Red was very smart to switch the rotation. Swayman will now face Providence and Bub will get the ECAC team. The people who want to see Bub axed are crazy. It's very important to keep Swayman fresh and Bub ready.

 

[BoSox3066]

Re: UMaine Black Bears, 2017-2018 season, is this Reds last stand?

10 games in youre talking a 919 save vs 875 how many games can you pizz away waiting for that to equalize? Split had to be 3 of 4 or 4 of 5 for Swayman at this point. Its time.

 

[amkirby10]

If you look at the last couple of years though Maine has had a lot of good performances where they have lost and it doesn't seem like those helped them at all.

But were some of those hard fought losses immediately on the heels of scoring eleven goals in a two game span against what were considered conference favorites? Again, I'm not saying the season is over, shut off the lights, but to say that losing 7-0 is "no big deal" is a bit shortsighted, until and unless they come out the next time and prove it was "no big deal".

Red was very smart to switch the rotation. Swayman will now face Providence and Bub will get the ECAC team. The people who want to see Bub axed are crazy. It's very important to keep Swayman fresh and Bub ready.

This is where I start to agree with you. I'm still not totally against the idea of keeping Rob in for games, because they don't want to rush Jeremy into the starting role too early and for rest purposes. The only thing I will say though is if on the off chance we beat the Friars and draw Clarkson, we should start Jeremy again. If we play RPI, then it should defintely be Rob's game to start.

 

[dogtagger]

Re: UMaine Black Bears, 2017-2018 season, is this Reds last stand?

I guess I don't get the point of giving up a home game to play in Portland. Alfond was rocking Friday night, Saturday, the civic center was filled with people who couldn't care who was playing. I noticed the same thing last year. 7000 people, no atmosphere. I think the venue is fine for non conference tournament play, but IMO it's time to do away with the Portland "home" game concept.

 

[Fishman'81]

Re: UMaine Black Bears, 2017-2018 season, is this Reds last stand?

I'm very happy with 4-6 at this stage and think Maine has put themselves in great position to finish .500. The schedule in the second half is much easier and the games that really county are against UNH, UMass, and Merrimack. Those are the games Maine needs to win.

Maine's SOS so far is 40th in the nation. Probably won't get much easier down the road.

 

[Drew S.]

Re: UMaine Black Bears, 2017-2018 season, is this Reds last stand?

Maine's SOS so far is 40th in the nation. Probably won't get much easier down the road.

Lowell, BU, and Duluth all made the NCAA tourney last year and Duluth was obviously in the final. Miami is okay but it is tough for them where their league is so good. UConn isn't a great team and you could argue Maine should have swept that series.

 

[Fishman'81]

Re: UMaine Black Bears, 2017-2018 season, is this Reds last stand?

Lowell, BU, and Duluth all made the NCAA tourney last year and Duluth was obviously in the final. Miami is okay but it is tough for them where their league is so good. UConn isn't a great team and you could argue Maine should have swept that series.

Doesn't matter what happened last year. Maine is 4-6 against mediocre-to-bad teams this year.

Maine needs to win probably 75% of their remaining games to have any kind of a shot at the PW, IMO.

 

[Drew S.]

Doesn't matter what happened last year. Maine is 4-6 against mediocre-to-bad teams this year.

Maine needs to win probably 75% of their remaining games to have any kind of a shot at the PW, IMO.

I'll trust a sample size of 40 over 10 any day. I've always thought pairwise type formulas were a joke anyway. At one point there was a team that was 0-1 ahead of Maine when they were 2-2 or something like that. How does that make any sense?

 

[AMC]

Re: UMaine Black Bears, 2017-2018 season, is this Reds last stand?

I'll trust a sample size of 40 over 10 any day. I've always thought pairwise type formulas were a joke anyway. At one point there was a team that was 0-1 ahead of Maine when they were 2-2 or something like that. How does that make any sense?

Because it isn't built for 4 or 1 game samples. How do you want to measure Maine against other teams? Height?

Regardless, by PWR or RPI, Maine is 51 out of 60. By KRACH, 44th. Those all seem about right to me.

 

[Drew S.]

Because it isn't built for 4 or 1 game samples. How do you want to measure Maine against other teams? Height?

Regardless, by PWR or RPI, Maine is 51 out of 60. By KRACH, 44th. Those all seem about right to me.

Obviously. That's why I pointed out that it was ridiculous to use it now. At this point in the season the best way is to use a combination of track record and current year's results.

 

[Fishman'81]

Re: UMaine Black Bears, 2017-2018 season, is this Reds last stand?

Because it isn't built for 4 or 1 game samples. How do you want to measure Maine against other teams? Height?

Regardless, by PWR or RPI, Maine is 51 out of 60. By KRACH, 44th. Those all seem about right to me.

I'm no expert re: statistics, but I did take two years of it, and the KRACH is by-far the best model I've seen so far as to predictability and results.

And, as you said, Maine is a bottom-feeder by any available metric. They need to get white-hot to have a shot at the tournament.

Beating RPI, Mack, UMass won't amount to much, but that has to happen every time, as well as cashing-in on the few quality opportunities left to them. (BC, PC, maybe Clarkson.)

I hope it happens, but I won't bet the farm on it. This freshman class isn't anywhere as good as some folks seem to think it is. It's not a crew of awful players, yet I'm not seeing anything much "special" at Maine right now.

Again, I want to be wrong about this, and I'll spend money to see them play another bad team at RPI, but I'm not holding my breath. I just don't notice any meaningful progress under Red... In fact, it's been mostly a regressive thing.

 

[Fishman'81]

Re: UMaine Black Bears, 2017-2018 season, is this Reds last stand?

Sorry to double-post, but as I lay in bed last night, it seems to me that Maine's best shot is actually to win the HEA tournament. That's a lot more doable than getting in via the PWR.

(The PWR is definitely not happening, but HE is fairly lousy this year... That could happen.)

 

[Drew S.]

Re: UMaine Black Bears, 2017-2018 season, is this Reds last stand?

Sorry to double-post, but as I lay in bed last night, it seems to me that Maine's best shot is actually to win the HEA tournament. That's a lot more doable than getting in via the PWR.

(The PWR is definitely not happening, but HE is fairly lousy this year... That could happen.)

Definitely not happening? Maine hasn't even played half their non-conference games yet. Is making the NCAA's even the goal this year? I'd be happy with .500 and see it as a positive step forward.

 

[walrus]

Re: UMaine Black Bears, 2017-2018 season, is this Reds last stand?

Definitely not happening? Maine hasn't even played half their non-conference games yet. Is making the NCAA's even the goal this year? I'd be happy with .500 and see it as a positive step forward.

Anything but the cellar in HE is an improvement, I'm still not convinced they can stay out of there.

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[Ma#1ne Hky]

Re: UMaine Black Bears, 2017-2018 season, is this Reds last stand?

Anything but the cellar in HE is an improvement, I'm still not convinced they can stay out of there.

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7th or 8th place maybe gravy for this team, if they continue to play hot/cold...then cold/hot in each series. One team that may have the bottom as for the way they've played this season is Vermont. IMO after the Friendship series Maine should go with Swayman on a 3 out each 4 games, unless he falters...time for him down the road to play back to back games. The bottom of Hockey East might be a toss-up from here on in, UConn/UNH/Maine/UMass/Merrimack/Vermont. HAPPY Turkey day to all...!

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[amkirby10]

7th or 8th place maybe gravy for this team, if they continue to play hot/cold...then cold/hot in each series. One team that may have the bottom as for the way they've played this season is Vermont. IMO after the Friendship series Maine should go with Swayman on a 3 out each 4 games, unless he falters...time for him down the road to play back to back games. The bottom of Hockey East might be a toss-up from here on in, UConn/UNH/Maine/UMass/Merrimack/Vermont. HAPPY Turkey day to all...!

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I don't think home ice is out of the realm of possibility. Maine can really bury Vermont next weekend, and Merrimack hasn't been much better to start the year. That leaves only Massachusetts or Connecticut for Maine to keep pace against and we'll have playoff games at the Alfond.

 

[Fishman'81]

Re: UMaine Black Bears, 2017-2018 season, is this Reds last stand?

I don't think home ice is out of the realm of possibility. Maine can really bury Vermont next weekend, and Merrimack hasn't been much better to start the year. That leaves only Massachusetts or Connecticut for Maine to keep pace against and we'll have playoff games at the Alfond.

Ya know, it could happen... Mostly because HEA looks pretty bad this year.

I hate the concept of AQ's, but if Maine gets home-ice in the first round, and then benefits from a couple of minor upsets to pave their way, they might conceivably get one... That's not nearly as remote a possibility as earning a berth via the PW, which is a practical impossibility IMO.

Anyway, Happy Thanksgiving to all you nut-case Maine fans! Reading my alumni magazine today (with PK and Monty on the cover) really made me look back with great fondness to what we used to have in Orono. Best college team ever in '93. Best program in the nation for years. They made me so very proud to be a Black Bear.