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UMaine Black Bears 2013-14 season

Re: UMaine Black Bears 2013-14 season

OnMAA said:
Wow, exactly 1 year, what are the odds of that ?.
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My first thought was 1 in 365, but given that teams don't play games for six months in the summer nor on holidays like Christmas, it would probably be like 1 in 160 or 170. :D
 
Re: UMaine Black Bears 2013-14 season

ARM said:
My first thought was 1 in 365, but given that teams don't play games for six months in the summer nor on holidays like Christmas, it would probably be like 1 in 160 or 170. :D
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Not a statistician, but what I remember about stat class, everything else being equal and assuming for each game probability to lose is 50% (1/2) and no correlation between successive events, the probability would be 1 divided by 2 to the power 31, or 1/8,589,934,592. That translates to a 8 sigma number, and that does not even include the probability that the 33th game falls on the exact same date the next season. I'm sure Laker Fan or TTT can come up with a much more realistic number that includes past records etc.
 
Re: UMaine Black Bears 2013-14 season

OnMAA said:
Not a statistician, but what I remember about stat class, everything else being equal and assuming for each game probability to lose is 50% (1/2) and no correlation between successive events, the probability would be 1 divided by 2 to the power 31, or 1/8,589,934,592. That translates to a 8 sigma number, and that does not even include the probability that the 33th game falls on the exact same date the next season. I'm sure Laker Fan or TTT can come up with a much more realistic number that includes past records etc.
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I think your logic would work just fine if every game, you randomly assigned one team a white jersey, and the other team a dark jersey. It would be quite anomalous for white (if randomly and fairly assigned) to lose 33 times in a row, and for dark to win 33 times in a row. But then, someone would probably discover there's a jersey color effect. The act of measurement leads to uncertainty in the results. Heisenberg's Uncertainty principle, ya know.

Then there's Schrödinger's Catamounts. One observer claimed they were moribund. But when viewed through the Alfond Arena lens, they appeared to be in top form. Simultaneously dead and alive.

And the probability of a randomly selected rodent winning 62 in a row? Uff da.
 
Re: UMaine Black Bears 2013-14 season

AggiesHockey said:
I think your logic would work just fine if every game, you randomly assigned one team a white jersey, and the other team a dark jersey.
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Well aware of that and alluded to that after making the assumption "everything else being equal".

If for example the probability of a team losing a game is let's say 90% (9/10), based on some prior record, and assuming no correlation between games or history between certain teams, you are looking a probability of 3.09% to lose 33 in a row, but chances that this streak is exactly one year long is still much less than 1%.


But enough about losing......Let's look forward on Maine winning some games. There are some winnable games in the offing in the not too distant future.
 
Re: UMaine Black Bears 2013-14 season

AggiesHockey said:
And the probability of a randomly selected rodent winning 62 in a row? Uff da.
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Appears to me that Rodents have a a better chance for survival compared to larger mammals. Mankind has tried for years to get rid of some of these pests with little to no success. They are like the plague. Get rid of one, four new ones show up. :D
 
Re: UMaine Black Bears 2013-14 season

I saw the two Providence games versus Maine this weekend and was impressed with the Maine Team. The Team is bigger and plays a better system game than what I saw the past few seasons when they played a short bench and played a very physical intimidating game but seemed to run out of gas or get beat from taking to many penalties.

I hope the program continues to build on talent that they have and under the new coaches.
 
Re: UMaine Black Bears 2013-14 season

joehockey said:
I saw the two Providence games versus Maine this weekend and was impressed with the Maine Team. The Team is bigger and plays a better system game than what I saw the past few seasons when they played a short bench and played a very physical intimidating game but seemed to run out of gas or get beat from taking to many penalties.

I hope the program continues to build on talent that they have and under the new coaches.
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Thanks for the comments, jh. Us Maine-uhs needed some positive take-aways from the series.
 
Re: UMaine Black Bears 2013-14 season

Maine picks up their 4th tie of the season against Penn State. Fujimagari who has played in 5 games got the tie. Don't know if she was really challenged. Maine outshot Penn State and Maine's defense allowed no shots on goal in OT.
 
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Runsub5 said:
Maine picks up their 4th tie of the season against Penn State. Fujimagari who has played in 5 games got the tie. Don't know if she was really challenged. Maine outshot Penn State and Maine's defense allowed no shots on goal in OT.
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Jessica Hall returned to play for Friday night's game versus RMU.

The game story: Brittany Howard 4, Maine 2. RMU was generally quicker, and better at working the puck around the O Zone. Howard was on fire.

Saturdays game versus Penn State was a much better match up for Maine. I believe Maine out shot PSU 45-30. PSU had their moments, though, including a pipe shot late in the game.

Maine still mixing & matching personnel every game, it seems.
 
Re: UMaine Black Bears 2013-14 season

AggiesHockey said:
Jessica Hall returned to play for Friday night's game versus RMU.

The game story: Brittany Howard 4, Maine 2. RMU was generally quicker, and better at working the puck around the O Zone. Howard was on fire.

Saturdays game versus Penn State was a much better match up for Maine. I believe Maine out shot PSU 45-30. PSU had their moments, though, including a pipe shot late in the game.

Maine still mixing & matching personnel every game, it seems.
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Here's a nice article on the Reichenbach's in the Bangor daily News.

http://bangordailynews.com/2013/11/...-coaches-enjoying-marriage-hockey/?ref=search
 
Re: UMaine Black Bears 2013-14 season

Nice 6-3 W for the squad today to earn the split. Maine had 3 goals by freshmen, followed by 3 goals by sophomores (including the empty-netter at the end).

Maine clearly the better team today when playing 5-on-5. Their penalty kill strategy took that into account, as the strategy was to get their player out of the box ASAP. Hat's off to Union's PP unit--they made it look easy. And congrats both teams for the series split.
 
AggiesHockey said:
Nice 6-3 W for the squad today to earn the split. Maine had 3 goals by freshmen, followed by 3 goals by sophomores (including the empty-netter at the end).

Maine clearly the better team today when playing 5-on-5. Their penalty kill strategy took that into account, as the strategy was to get their player out of the box ASAP. Hat's off to Union's PP unit--they made it look easy. And congrats both teams for the series split.
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Ugggggh! I said to DC they would split, but every time I pick for the split it goes against me. Good to see the Bears notch the win though.
 
Re: UMaine Black Bears 2013-14 season

Congrats to BlackBears on the sweep vs. UNH. Three-goal weekend for Audra Richards, and solid goaltending from Treacy.

Since Nov 30, the BlackBears are 5-4-2. One of their losses an OT loss versus Northeastern, and one loss to BU in which they outshot the Terriers 34-14.

They've definitely improved over a disastrous first half of the season.
 
Re: UMaine Black Bears 2013-14 season

AggiesHockey said:
Congrats to BlackBears on the sweep vs. UNH. Three-goal weekend for Audra Richards, and solid goaltending from Treacy.
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Treacy was very impressive in the game I saw at BC at the start of the season. Definitely someone who can keep a team in a game.
 
Re: UMaine Black Bears 2013-14 season

I look at Maine's record, then their roster, and smirk. I think two players from New England and most everybody else from Canada. I know a lot of quality players (Assabet Red Major level) who would have appreciated being recruited by Maine, but this college seems to ignore trying to land the club and prep players from this area (Massachusetts). UNH is in the same situation. I am at least glad to see that UNH snagged local Brooke Avery. In any case, these teams deserve the records they post because of their slanted and incompetent recruiting.
 
Re: UMaine Black Bears 2013-14 season

WHockey said:
I look at Maine's record, then their roster, and smirk. I think two players from New England and most everybody else from Canada. I know a lot of quality players (Assabet Red Major level) who would have appreciated being recruited by Maine, but this college seems to ignore trying to land the club and prep players from this area (Massachusetts). UNH is in the same situation. I am at least glad to see that UNH snagged local Brooke Avery. In any case, these teams deserve the records they post because of their slanted and incompetent recruiting.
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They seemed to be improving under Lewis until last year. But those improving years (2010-11; 2011-12) were years where the prior coach's recruits were upper classmen. Once Lichterman's recruits had been replaced, the team fell off. So you may have a point.

To address another angle - if you know players "who would have appreciated being recruited by Maine," I'm curious: Did these players visit, call & email the coaches, etc.? Most recruiting is complete by the time it's legal for coaches to initiate contact, so if the players aren't out there job hunting, too bad for them.
 
Re: UMaine Black Bears 2013-14 season

WHockey said:
I look at Maine's record, then their roster, and smirk. I think two players from New England and most everybody else from Canada. I know a lot of quality players (Assabet Red Major level) who would have appreciated being recruited by Maine, but this college seems to ignore trying to land the club and prep players from this area (Massachusetts). UNH is in the same situation. I am at least glad to see that UNH snagged local Brooke Avery. In any case, these teams deserve the records they post because of their slanted and incompetent recruiting.
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Most Assabet Valley Red Major players (and Wizards, Spitfires, Breakers, and Polar Bears players) go to very academically strong prep schools and have higher academic goals - Ivy League generally. The ones that can't pull that off for whatever reason go either to D1 schools with stronger current women's hockey program than Maine (or UNH) or academically strong D3 schools like the NESCAC schools. There aren't many pining for Maine (or UNH at this point either), not even the ones from Maine. The players you speak of may have appreciated being recruited by Maine, but they wouldn't have gone there. So the Maine coaching staff is focusing on the players that have talent that they can actually attract and that sends them primarily to Canada.

BTW - given what is going on UNH at the moment, I have only concern for Brooke Avery in selecting UNH as her college of choice. Let's hope that the coaching situation is straightened out and the team purged of the players/parents that seem to be causing the problems prior to her arrival there.
 
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