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The Stock Market thread: BUY! BUY! BUY! Sell, sell, sell...

Re: The Stock Market thread: BUY! BUY! BUY! Sell, sell, sell...

It's 2Q earnings time for many companies. Sadly LLY's likely to be a flop, but it did "beat estimates" the past two quarters. Much lower than last year, though.
 
Re: The Stock Market thread: BUY! BUY! BUY! Sell, sell, sell...

unh_hockey said:
and by luck, you mean federal reserve action/inaction!

thanks though!
Click to expand...

I meant regarding the stocks you were potentially looking to buy. My gosh, not everything I say has a political motivation behind it.
 
Re: The Stock Market thread: BUY! BUY! BUY! Sell, sell, sell...

FlagDUDE08 said:
I meant regarding the stocks you were potentially looking to buy. My gosh, not everything I say has a political motivation behind it.
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I was sort of joking around implying that whatever stock I buy goes up/down with whatever the FED decides to do. Last year, the debt ceiling talks and QE was in the news, and in august there was a pretty big dip in prices. Would have been easy for anyone to buy the major indecies, and made roughly 13-15% over that year. My "safe" 401k which is comprised entirely of US treasuries has made 2.9% thanks to low interest rates.

So in a serious sort of way, I attribute shorter term gains and losses to luck. It seems that variations in price have less to do with fundamentals, and more to do with whatever market forces are in play. Whatever causes the next dip, i'll be buying up a bunch of stuff. I am one for closure, so i'll post what I buy and how it does.
 
Re: The Stock Market thread: BUY! BUY! BUY! Sell, sell, sell...

unh_hockey said:
I was sort of joking around implying that whatever stock I buy goes up/down with whatever the FED decides to do. Last year, the debt ceiling talks and QE was in the news, and in august there was a pretty big dip in prices. Would have been easy for anyone to buy the major indecies, and made roughly 13-15% over that year. My "safe" 401k which is comprised entirely of US treasuries has made 2.9% thanks to low interest rates.

So in a serious sort of way, I attribute shorter term gains and losses to luck. It seems that variations in price have less to do with fundamentals, and more to do with whatever market forces are in play. Whatever causes the next dip, i'll be buying up a bunch of stuff. I am one for closure, so i'll post what I buy and how it does.
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You mean disclosure? ;)

Anything with a relatively heavy amount of volume on average will go up or down the second Bernanke opens his yapper. Typically, I invest in smaller cap stocks with fairly low volume, so it isn't affected all that much.

If we don't see a resolution on Taxmageddon by October, expect the market to tank. I would not be surprised to see four digits again. If a resolution does come, we won't see market effect until April or May.
 
Re: The Stock Market thread: BUY! BUY! BUY! Sell, sell, sell...

FlagDUDE08 said:
You mean disclosure? ;)

Anything with a relatively heavy amount of volume on average will go up or down the second Bernanke opens his yapper. Typically, I invest in smaller cap stocks with fairly low volume, so it isn't affected all that much.

If we don't see a resolution on Taxmageddon by October, expect the market to tank. I would not be surprised to see four digits again. If a resolution does come, we won't see market effect until April or May.
Click to expand...

Yeah I bet the smaller capital ones don't get effected as much since a majority of big funds hold only the larger ones. As I said earlier, it seems that fund performance can be attributed to only a few of the bigger ones - amongst them would be companies like AAPL. Do you just go small cap or do you trade pink street ( aka ones not listed on major indecies).

I am not sure on the timeline on this, but if the US government doesn't get its financial business in order, its a law that they must undergo a process called sequestration - each major funding must slash 20% of its funding. I am not sure where this is stated, but I know it spells bad news for everyone especially government drones like myself :p. In regards to the market, expect to see companies which are afloat on government subsidies to go under. Of course this would extend to larger public companies like raytheon, Boeing etc and their prices will probably fall a lot.

Something to keep an eye out for. When doing due diligence, find out what companies do NOT rely on any gov help..
 
Re: The Stock Market thread: BUY! BUY! BUY! Sell, sell, sell...

unh_hockey said:
Yeah I bet the smaller capital ones don't get effected as much since a majority of big funds hold only the larger ones. As I said earlier, it seems that fund performance can be attributed to only a few of the bigger ones - amongst them would be companies like AAPL. Do you just go small cap or do you trade pink street ( aka ones not listed on major indecies).

I am not sure on the timeline on this, but if the US government doesn't get its financial business in order, its a law that they must undergo a process called sequestration - each major funding must slash 20% of its funding. I am not sure where this is stated, but I know it spells bad news for everyone especially government drones like myself :p. In regards to the market, expect to see companies which are afloat on government subsidies to go under. Of course this would extend to larger public companies like raytheon, Boeing etc and their prices will probably fall a lot.

Something to keep an eye out for. When doing due diligence, find out what companies do NOT rely on any gov help..
Click to expand...

The broker that I use only allows trades on the major New York markets (i.e. NYSE, NASDAQ, AMEX). I'm not entirely small cap, though, as I do have a few mid and large cap selections. One of the biggest reasons I go small cap is because many of those companies don't have any debt while maintaining decent cash flow.

You don't have to remind me of sequestration, as I'm in the biz as well. I believe it was created as part of the debt ceiling increase. I'm sure they'll simply kick the can down the road and delay when sequestration happens. It's what happened with the debt ceiling. They'll probably do the same with Tax-mageddon.
 
Re: The Stock Market thread: BUY! BUY! BUY! Sell, sell, sell...

Looks like Blizzard took a beating in the markets today despite beating estimates. Down 5.5% in a day the NASDAQ jumped 2.0% (hell, even FB was up 5% :) ). Didn't like the look of that stock back in May and I still don't. Obviously this goes against the vast majority of analysts where nearly half of them are saying "strong buy" before today.
 
Re: The Stock Market thread: BUY! BUY! BUY! Sell, sell, sell...

dxmnkd316 said:
Looks like Blizzard took a beating in the markets today despite beating estimates. Down 5.5% in a day the NASDAQ jumped 2.0% (hell, even FB was up 5% :) ). Didn't like the look of that stock back in May and I still don't. Obviously this goes against the vast majority of analysts where nearly half of them are saying "strong buy" before today.
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That's what happens when you announce that you have lost ~25% of your WoW subscriber base and your new Call of Duty is behind previous releases on pre-orders and investors begin to question your future prospects even if your current numbers are good but not great.
 
Re: The Stock Market thread: BUY! BUY! BUY! Sell, sell, sell...

dxmnkd316 said:
Looks like Blizzard took a beating in the markets today despite beating estimates. Down 5.5% in a day the NASDAQ jumped 2.0% (hell, even FB was up 5% :) ). Didn't like the look of that stock back in May and I still don't. Obviously this goes against the vast majority of analysts where nearly half of them are saying "strong buy" before today.
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Am I glad I didn't pull the trigger on Activision. I think, come the traditional tech bottom in September, I'll probably stick to good ol' faithful (at least in terms of stock), MSFT.
 
Re: The Stock Market thread: BUY! BUY! BUY! Sell, sell, sell...

So I decided to look into an alternative to Microsoft: MKS Instruments (MKSI). It's a mid-cap tech company that deals with measuring tools for manufacturing. It has a bit of a cyclical ring to it (traditional tech market cycle, tops off in Q1, bottoms at the end of Q3) with a 2.4% yield, so I'd say play your own money short term each year and if you feel you must hold and collect a dividend on the company, to only do it with house money.
 
Re: The Stock Market thread: BUY! BUY! BUY! Sell, sell, sell...

Funny thing related to the stock market, though more on the back end of things. The DTCC, which you could think of like a private version of the clearing house functions for the stock, corporate bond and municipal bond markets, the same general service performed by Federal Reserve Bank for check/money processing, is going to go through a major review of all their data file transmission layouts because of errors and contradictions I found in a large series I found in their documents and brought to their attention back in June while working a few different projects for my employer. Yeah...
 
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Re: The Stock Market thread: BUY! BUY! BUY! Sell, sell, sell...

FlagDUDE08 said:
The newest IPO: Manchester United. I kid you not, the soccer team. MANU is the symbol for you home-gamers. Just like Facebook, no significant control of the company whatsoever, maximum 10%.

http://www.usatoday.com/money/markets/story/2012-08-09/manchester-united-stock/56928790/1
http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-505144_162-57490824/no-win-in-the-manchester-united-ipo/
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Glazers had to go public to try to reduce the debt they have piled on the team. Man U went from $0 debt to $662 million US once they were bought.
 
Re: The Stock Market thread: BUY! BUY! BUY! Sell, sell, sell...

Facebook closes under 20 bucks, and is still going down in after-hours trading. It also hit a record low earlier today of $19.69.

Sometimes I feel like I'm the only person that went long on this stock and made money...
 
Re: The Stock Market thread: BUY! BUY! BUY! Sell, sell, sell...

The market just keeps wanting to go up (it seems satified with whatever might happen in November).

The question is for how long. I have seen warnings of a short term triple top and we're less than a dow grand from our all time. Will Europe come to the fore again? Just not sure about this market. Things here seem so optimistic but Asia keeps waffling and Europe is afraid to look under the bed.
 
Re: The Stock Market thread: BUY! BUY! BUY! Sell, sell, sell...

5mn_Major said:
The market just keeps wanting to go up (it seems satified with whatever might happen in November).

The question is for how long. I have seen warnings of a short term triple top and we're less than a dow grand from our all time. Will Europe come to the fore again? Just not sure about this market. Things here seem so optimistic but Asia keeps waffling and Europe is afraid to look under the bed.
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IIRC, in 2008, we saw something very similar around this time of year. The question is: what's the bubble this time? Is it health care? Commodities? Technology, given the inflated price of Apple? Something else?

I still think we'll see an October surprise drop, mostly because of taxmageddon.
 
Re: The Stock Market thread: BUY! BUY! BUY! Sell, sell, sell...

FlagDUDE08 said:
IIRC, in 2008, we saw something very similar around this time of year. The question is: what's the bubble this time? Is it health care? Commodities? Technology, given the inflated price of Apple? Something else?

I still think we'll see an October surprise drop, mostly because of taxmageddon.
Click to expand...

Just don't know. But you may have a point on this bubble thing.

I guess my thinking is that there really doesn't seem to be much of a bubble anywhere. Other weaknesses (ie unemployment) have kept prices down in some areas (ie real estate). Maybe that's part of what might be a bit of the euphoria? Maybe the perception (or misperception) that there isn't much of a bubble which means the economy can continue to slowly grow without getting toppy.

Now if the economy is much weaker than it seems and even moderate prices are too high...that's another story...
 
Re: The Stock Market thread: BUY! BUY! BUY! Sell, sell, sell...

5mn_Major said:
Just don't know. But you may have a point on this bubble thing.

I guess my thinking is that there really doesn't seem to be much of a bubble anywhere. Other weaknesses (ie unemployment) have kept prices down in some areas (ie real estate). Maybe that's part of what might be a bit of the euphoria? Maybe the perception (or misperception) that there isn't much of a bubble which means the economy can continue to slowly grow without getting toppy.

Now if the economy is much weaker than it seems and even moderate prices are too high...that's another story...
Click to expand...

If there's a bubble of anything, it's the fiat currency. We're printing our way to this "strength" that people think is happening because of Dow 13000. Eventually we'll either have to go to a major recession, succumb to hyper-inflation, or go into World War III.
 
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