What's new
By:
USCHO Fan Forum

This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!

  • The USCHO Fan Forum has migrated to a new plaform, xenForo. Most of the function of the forum should work in familiar ways. Please note that you can switch between light and dark modes by clicking on the gear icon in the upper right of the main menu bar. We are hoping that this new platform will prove to be faster and more reliable. Please feel free to explore its features.

The Stock Market thread: BUY! BUY! BUY! Sell, sell, sell...

Re: The Stock Market thread: BUY! BUY! BUY! Sell, sell, sell...

unh_hockey said:
A value investor for greenlight capital (David Einhorn) went on a short position and made a killing on green mountain coffee. His book ' fooling some of the people all of the time', chronicles shorting a company called allied capital. A good look at how professionals dissect how a company really does, than determine if they are worth investing in or not.
Click to expand...

I guess the biggest question is, how do we know when to long or short a specific stock in order to pick these up?

I know with my home-gaming, my biggest problem has not necessarily been my plans, but not knowing when the game has changed and I have to execute a new plan. Sure, I've hit some big ones like Mesabi Trust (bought at 16, sold at 50), Southern Copper (bought it back at 16 when it was PCU, it's double that now and REALLY good dividends to boot, but it was an investment anyway), but I've had some real stinkers, like Portugal Telecom (didn't hop when it got downgraded, now I'm waiting for the dividend and then running), Hugoton (missed the memo about natural gas tanking), and Ford (got out WAY too early).
 
Re: The Stock Market thread: BUY! BUY! BUY! Sell, sell, sell...

unh_hockey said:
A value investor for greenlight capital (David Einhorn) went on a short position and made a killing on green mountain coffee. His book ' fooling some of the people all of the time', chronicles shorting a company called allied capital. A good look at how professionals dissect how a company really does, than determine if they are worth investing in or not.
Click to expand...

It seem that their have always been a vocal group that wasn't very excited about Green Mountain Coffee, but the company seemed to be able to make the numbers to prove them wrong. To the detractors, it wasn't a question of if the company failed to make the numbers but when. To me the problem with Green Mountain is that they were always up against a significant deadline with their patent expiration on the K-cups this fall and the the expense of the K-cups really limits the market size.

Here is Einhorn's presentation on GMCR and why he's not a fan: Link. I found it interesting.
 
Re: The Stock Market thread: BUY! BUY! BUY! Sell, sell, sell...

Re patents: Isn't that why they just debut-ed a new, improved "k-cup" allowing stronger brews and larger sizes?
 
Re: The Stock Market thread: BUY! BUY! BUY! Sell, sell, sell...

amherstblackbear said:
Re patents: Isn't that why they just debut-ed a new, improved "k-cup" allowing stronger brews and larger sizes?
Click to expand...

And Starbucks will probably still get their business. A double tall latte with special beans from Panama... with foam... :rolleyes:
 
Re: The Stock Market thread: BUY! BUY! BUY! Sell, sell, sell...

No probably about it. They've got Starbucks support lined up for the new "VUE Pack" system. Foam packs sold separately. Naturally. :)
 
Re: The Stock Market thread: BUY! BUY! BUY! Sell, sell, sell...

amherstblackbear said:
Re patents: Isn't that why they just debut-ed a new, improved "k-cup" allowing stronger brews and larger sizes?
Click to expand...

I'm sure that they do but how many people will upgrade to the new system or chose the new (more expensive) system over the current system that will be lower in price. I'm sure that they have a plan, I'm just not sure how much growth potential exists to justify the current stock price that still have some growth built in.
 
Re: The Stock Market thread: BUY! BUY! BUY! Sell, sell, sell...

FlagDUDE08 said:
I guess the biggest question is, how do we know when to long or short a specific stock in order to pick these up?

I know with my home-gaming, my biggest problem has not necessarily been my plans, but not knowing when the game has changed and I have to execute a new plan. Sure, I've hit some big ones like Mesabi Trust (bought at 16, sold at 50), Southern Copper (bought it back at 16 when it was PCU, it's double that now and REALLY good dividends to boot, but it was an investment anyway), but I've had some real stinkers, like Portugal Telecom (didn't hop when it got downgraded, now I'm waiting for the dividend and then running), Hugoton (missed the memo about natural gas tanking), and Ford (got out WAY too early).
Click to expand...

Timing is not something I have a lot of experience with. To be honest, I understand the basics of valuing and thats about it. Overall, one formulates a value of the stock and determines how cheap of a buy based on GAAP and other fundamentals. While your buy price affects your return, its impossible to time it perfectly. It seems that if you hold for a long enough period, any strong institution aught to return better than easier investment products ( bonds, index funds, etc). So to answer your question, your guess is as good as mine!

Almington, thanks for the presentation.
 
Re: The Stock Market thread: BUY! BUY! BUY! Sell, sell, sell...

With Europe going left, prospects for the market are not good??
 
Re: The Stock Market thread: BUY! BUY! BUY! Sell, sell, sell...

joecct said:
With Europe going left, prospects for the market are not good??
Click to expand...

Not as good I'd say. Depending on the coming weeks and months and what France decides to do... If Hollande thinks tossing the austerity treaty out is a good idea, I'd say the market is heading lower based on the alleged instability that would create.
 
Re: The Stock Market thread: BUY! BUY! BUY! Sell, sell, sell...

Interesting, the GLD is shooting down... commodities must be an awful play at this point.
 
Re: The Stock Market thread: BUY! BUY! BUY! Sell, sell, sell...

Not really. Gold was incredibly overpriced. It was a huge fad for a while. Now that things are turning around, it should go back down.
 
Re: The Stock Market thread: BUY! BUY! BUY! Sell, sell, sell...

dxmnkd316 said:
Not really. Gold was incredibly overpriced. It was a huge fad for a while. Now that things are turning around, it should go back down.
Click to expand...

We're also seeing oil, silver, and copper shooting down as well. Nat gas is fluctuating a little, but that can't get any lower.
 
Re: The Stock Market thread: BUY! BUY! BUY! Sell, sell, sell...

FlagDUDE08 said:
We're also seeing oil, silver, and copper shooting down as well. Nat gas is fluctuating a little, but that can't get any lower.
Click to expand...

Not a surprise really, if the political discord in Europe results in another global slowdown/recession the demand on all commodities will fall and even will the low current interest rates deflation is possible over the short term. I suspect that much of the fall in gold prices was profit taking by savvy speculators who will consider buying back in once the uncertainty in Europe has settled.
 
Re: The Stock Market thread: BUY! BUY! BUY! Sell, sell, sell...

Oh that's right, COP spun off PSX. I didn't just lose a third of my invesment there. Whew.
 
Re: The Stock Market thread: BUY! BUY! BUY! Sell, sell, sell...

French Rage said:
Oh that's right, COP spun off PSX. I didn't just lose a third of my invesment there. Whew.
Click to expand...

Issue with diversification, mayhaps? There's no sense in putting your eggs in one basket and have that happen to you.
 
Re: The Stock Market thread: BUY! BUY! BUY! Sell, sell, sell...

FlagDUDE08 said:
Issue with diversification, mayhaps? There's no sense in putting your eggs in one basket and have that happen to you.
Click to expand...

I meant a third of my investment in COP, which is one of many stocks in my portfolio. It went from 70ish to 50ish because COP spun off PSX so I got some PSX stock as part of the spinoff, but it took me a sec to remember that when I was looking at COP's price history.
 
Re: The Stock Market thread: BUY! BUY! BUY! Sell, sell, sell...

How do I get a job where I can lose $2,000,000,000 and not only keep my job, but get a $23M bonus?
 
Re: The Stock Market thread: BUY! BUY! BUY! Sell, sell, sell...

Facebook is supposed to IPO soon (Friday?) as high as $38.

I wouldn't touch it though. They have advertising and the selling of information, but I don't see how else they will make money.
 
Re: The Stock Market thread: BUY! BUY! BUY! Sell, sell, sell...

JF_Gophers said:
Facebook is supposed to IPO soon (Friday?) as high as $38.

I wouldn't touch it though. They have advertising and the selling of information, but I don't see how else they will make money.
Click to expand...

Short it when it gets up to 40.
 
Re: The Stock Market thread: BUY! BUY! BUY! Sell, sell, sell...

Priceless said:
How do I get a job where I can lose $2,000,000,000 and not only keep my job, but get a $23M bonus?
Click to expand...

Because the bank as a whole will still make a quarterly profit of about $4 billion. Those directly responsible for the loss (and direct oversight) will be losing their jobs.

If I was going to buy a bank stock, now would be the time to buy JPMorgan.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top