The Stock Market thread: BUY! BUY! BUY! Sell, sell, sell...

[FlagDUDE08]

Re: The Stock Market thread: BUY! BUY! BUY! Sell, sell, sell...

It seems it hit the record despite the gloom and doom of sequester

Successfully called bluff is what it was.

 

[unofan]

Successfully called bluff is what it was.

Thus making clear there is a huge difference between finance and economics, as someone with even a basic understanding would know the sequester isn't an immediate impact but an ongoing one.

 

[FlagDUDE08]

Re: The Stock Market thread: BUY! BUY! BUY! Sell, sell, sell...

Thus making clear there is a huge difference between finance and economics, as someone with even a basic understanding would know the sequester isn't an immediate impact but an ongoing one.

I wouldn't even say ongoing, either. We'd probably see the effects in April or May, when companies are reporting on quarterly earnings.

 

[Almington]

Re: The Stock Market thread: BUY! BUY! BUY! Sell, sell, sell...

I wouldn't even say ongoing, either. We'd probably see the effects in April or May, when companies are reporting on quarterly earnings.

It will last longer, as long as the furloughs continue, it is going to impact any previous year comps.

 

[unofan]

I wouldn't even say ongoing, either. We'd probably see the effects in April or May, when companies are reporting on quarterly earnings.

Furloughs are expected to be once or twice per pay period through the rest of the fiscal year. How is a furlough in june going to impact April's earnings?

 

[FlagDUDE08]

Re: The Stock Market thread: BUY! BUY! BUY! Sell, sell, sell...

Furloughs are expected to be once or twice per pay period through the rest of the fiscal year. How is a furlough in june going to impact April's earnings?

If this lower spending takes place starting in March, and these companies are truly dependent upon it, the last I checked, March is still in Q1. Adjusting for different fiscal years, of course (a company like AEO has a fiscal year that starts in February).

 

[unofan]

If this lower spending takes place starting in March, and these companies are truly dependent upon it, the last I checked, March is still in Q1. Adjusting for different fiscal years, of course (a company like AEO has a fiscal year that starts in February).

That still only accounts for the present effects. Not the ongoing ones when people realize their income will still be lower several months later.

 

[FlagDUDE08]

Re: The Stock Market thread: BUY! BUY! BUY! Sell, sell, sell...

That still only accounts for the present effects. Not the ongoing ones when people realize their income will still be lower several months later.

OK, so account for one more quarter of change. You're acting like we're going to see effects 10 years from now.

 

[unofan]

OK, so account for one more quarter of change. You're acting like we're going to see effects 10 years from now.

No. I'm saying the sequester was never thought by anyone with knowledge of economics to be a sudden, immediate jolt. The most dire prediction that i saw by anyone reputable was a quarter to a half point drop in this year's gdp growth.

So the fact the djia hit an all-time high is not "calling a bluff." The effects won't be felt in full for at least two-three months.

 

[FlagDUDE08]

Re: The Stock Market thread: BUY! BUY! BUY! Sell, sell, sell...

Someone tell me why I got back in with this company...

http://www.foxbusiness.com/news/201...rs-blames-weather-macro-issues-for-weak-view/

 

[FlagDUDE08]

Re: The Stock Market thread: BUY! BUY! BUY! Sell, sell, sell...

No. I'm saying the sequester was never thought by anyone with knowledge of economics to be a sudden, immediate jolt. The most dire prediction that i saw by anyone reputable was a quarter to a half point drop in this year's gdp growth.

So the fact the djia hit an all-time high is not "calling a bluff." The effects won't be felt in full for at least two-three months.

You're the one that tried to associate it with Congressional action, so don't blame me. All I said was that many companies are not back to their 2007 levels. This pretty much means that a large amount of this increase is due to inflation.

 

[St. Clown]

Re: The Stock Market thread: BUY! BUY! BUY! Sell, sell, sell...

The really rich people aren't wild about the current stock market situation.

"Billionaires Dumping Stocks, Economist Knows Why" http://www.moneynews.com/MKTNews/billionaires-dump-economist-stock/2012/08/29/id/450265?PROMO_CODE=110D8-1&utm_source=taboola

It's a longer article than what I'm posting, and I really think the 90% number is too high, but it's worth a quick read, and goes along with thoughts I've been having for a while now.

It’s very likely that these professional investors are aware of specific research that points toward a massive market correction, as much as 90%.

One such person publishing this research is Robert Wiedemer, an esteemed economist and author of the New York Times best-selling book Aftershock.

Before you dismiss the possibility of a 90% drop in the stock market as unrealistic, consider Wiedemer’s credentials.

In 2006, Wiedemer and a team of economists accurately predicted the collapse of the U.S. housing market, equity markets, and consumer spending that almost sank the United States. They published their research in the book America’s Bubble Economy.

The book quickly grabbed headlines for its accuracy in predicting what many thought would never happen, and quickly established Wiedemer as a trusted voice.

...

In the interview for his latest blockbuster Aftershock, Wiedemer says the 90% drop in the stock market is “a worst-case scenario,” and the host quickly challenged this claim.

Wiedemer calmly laid out a clear explanation of why a large drop of some sort is a virtual certainty.

It starts with the reckless strategy of the Federal Reserve to print a massive amount of money out of thin air in an attempt to stimulate the economy.

“These funds haven’t made it into the markets and the economy yet. But it is a mathematical certainty that once the dam breaks, and this money passes through the reserves and hits the markets, inflation will surge,” said Wiedemer.

“Once you hit 10% inflation, 10-year Treasury bonds lose about half their value. And by 20%, any value is all but gone. Interest rates will increase dramatically at this point, and that will cause real estate values to collapse. And the stock market will collapse as a consequence of these other problems.”

 

[FlagDUDE08]

Re: The Stock Market thread: BUY! BUY! BUY! Sell, sell, sell...

The really rich people aren't wild about the current stock market situation.

"Billionaires Dumping Stocks, Economist Knows Why" http://www.moneynews.com/MKTNews/billionaires-dump-economist-stock/2012/08/29/id/450265?PROMO_CODE=110D8-1&utm_source=taboola

It's a longer article than what I'm posting, and I really think the 90% number is too high, but it's worth a quick read, and goes along with thoughts I've been having for a while now.

I've seen this report before, as well as infomercial-style ads where he revels in his Nostradamus-like prediction. Not much to make of it, but something tells me not to entirely trust him. Swamis come and go, and he seems like nothing more than a swami. I'll keep an eye on it, though.

One thing I have learned, somewhat the hard way, from Taxmageddon: 60.4% of a watermelon is a lot better than 100% of a grape.

 

[St. Clown]

Re: The Stock Market thread: BUY! BUY! BUY! Sell, sell, sell...

I've seen this report before, as well as infomercial-style ads where he revels in his Nostradamus-like prediction. Not much to make of it, but something tells me not to entirely trust him. Swamis come and go, and he seems like nothing more than a swami. I'll keep an eye on it, though.

One thing I have learned, somewhat the hard way, from Taxmageddon: 60.4% of a watermelon is a lot better than 100% of a grape.

What interested me more was Buffett, Paulson and Soros all divesting in equity. I do think the market's overpriced at the moment, and a 20-30% correction wouldn't surprise me at all. In fact, I'm really expecting it given how relatively weak GDP growth has been the past few years. Even though there's been some positive economic news in recent weeks, I'm still bearish on the economy as a whole.

 

[FlagDUDE08]

Re: The Stock Market thread: BUY! BUY! BUY! Sell, sell, sell...

What interested me more was Buffett, Paulson and Soros all divesting in equity. I do think the market's overpriced at the moment, and a 20-30% correction wouldn't surprise me at all. In fact, I'm really expecting it given how relatively weak GDP growth has been the past few years. Even though there's been some positive economic news in recent weeks, I'm still bearish on the economy as a whole.

Well, aside from the typical summer sell-off, I'm not sure how much of a crash we'll see. I'll keep my portfolio for now, maybe buy a little bit when prices go down...

 

[DrDemento]

Re: The Stock Market thread: BUY! BUY! BUY! Sell, sell, sell...

Well, aside from the typical summer sell-off, I'm not sure how much of a crash we'll see. I'll keep my portfolio for now, maybe buy a little bit when prices go down...

I spent the latter half of the week doing a bit of selling and getting into a better cash position. Sold from several different parts of the portfolio-some bonds, some preferred stock, some common stock, some bond funds. Will be watching a bit before i put the money back to work. I also think we shall see a bit of sell off but with banks paying diddly on CDs and Money market accounts, I don't expect to sit on the cash too long.

 

[FlagDUDE08]

Re: The Stock Market thread: BUY! BUY! BUY! Sell, sell, sell...

I spent the latter half of the week doing a bit of selling and getting into a better cash position. Sold from several different parts of the portfolio-some bonds, some preferred stock, some common stock, some bond funds. Will be watching a bit before i put the money back to work. I also think we shall see a bit of sell off but with banks paying diddly on CDs and Money market accounts, I don't expect to sit on the cash too long.

This is why I go with oil royalties. Monthly distributions, and if you get the right ones, not much volatility in the price.

 

[DrDemento]

Re: The Stock Market thread: BUY! BUY! BUY! Sell, sell, sell...

This is why I go with oil royalties. Monthly distributions, and if you get the right ones, not much volatility in the price.

I have some money in one Oil Realty Trust (US) but if interest rates keep staying this low will increase that part of the portfolio. Because my age brcket is different than yours (a nice way of saying I am an old guy) I keep a substantial amount of the investments in yield without regard to growth. I am of course very much concerned with keeping what I have while at the same time being able to live solely off of the the dividends and interest. But because i still hope to have many more years ahead for me and my wife-I also carve out a substantial portion of investing for some growth and as a hedge against interest rate rises causing a fall in the value of my dividend portion of the portfolio.

My strongest belief though, is diversification. I watch carefully that I do not go overboard in any one type of investment, or one industry, or too many things that are sensitive to the same problems. It takes a lot of time to do this but being semi retired, I actually enjoy it. I knew nothing about any of this when i was first in practice-spending all my time building a practice. But discovered how important it was for our future and took charge of the Pension Plan, the Profit Sharing Plan, and our personal investments. There is an incredible amount to know and research but having a really good teacher/advisor helped tremendously.

 

[FlagDUDE08]

Re: The Stock Market thread: BUY! BUY! BUY! Sell, sell, sell...

I have some money in one Oil Realty Trust (US) but if interest rates keep staying this low will increase that part of the portfolio. Because my age brcket is different than yours (a nice way of saying I am an old guy) I keep a substantial amount of the investments in yield without regard to growth. I am of course very much concerned with keeping what I have while at the same time being able to live solely off of the the dividends and interest. But because i still hope to have many more years ahead for me and my wife-I also carve out a substantial portion of investing for some growth and as a hedge against interest rate rises causing a fall in the value of my dividend portion of the portfolio.

My strongest belief though, is diversification. I watch carefully that I do not go overboard in any one type of investment, or one industry, or too many things that are sensitive to the same problems. It takes a lot of time to do this but being semi retired, I actually enjoy it. I knew nothing about any of this when i was first in practice-spending all my time building a practice. But discovered how important it was for our future and took charge of the Pension Plan, the Profit Sharing Plan, and our personal investments. There is an incredible amount to know and research but having a really good teacher/advisor helped tremendously.

Diversification is always important (just don't tell Mark Cuban that ). Let me remind you of one other thing where I'm sure your investment advisor is also aware: With the oil royalty trusts, not only is it a monthly distribution without regard to growth, but it is also taxed differently. Here's the trick, though, to take real advantage: Only own it for a couple of years, and then sell it. Wait the 30 days to avoid a wash sale, and then buy it back. It's a nice little loophole, especially if you can go back and forth between two of them. I'm currently long ROYT and CRT at about 5:2, but am looking to replace CRT with something else, since the nat gas portion of the properties is killing me.

I'm glad to read that you're taking charge of your bucks. I'm sure many of us will help to give you good advice as well. One thing to remember about stock market investing is that it is not a science; it is an art. Just like sports, there are many different ways to reach your end goals. Like you've probably read, people have different opinions about diversification, dividends, specific sectors (or even specific stocks) to invest, types of assets, the list never ends. As with anything else in life, use what you learn as a basis and apply it to a specific strategy, but be sure that it is completely your own. The only reason I say this is because if you try to copy someone else's strategy, you may miss something important that could be the key between making a bundle and losing your shirt.

 

[DrDemento]

Re: The Stock Market thread: BUY! BUY! BUY! Sell, sell, sell...

Diversification is always important (just don't tell Mark Cuban that ). Let me remind you of one other thing where I'm sure your investment advisor is also aware: With the oil royalty trusts, not only is it a monthly distribution without regard to growth, but it is also taxed differently. Here's the trick, though, to take real advantage: Only own it for a couple of years, and then sell it. Wait the 30 days to avoid a wash sale, and then buy it back. It's a nice little loophole, especially if you can go back and forth between two of them. I'm currently long ROYT and CRT at about 5:2, but am looking to replace CRT with something else, since the nat gas portion of the properties is killing me.

I'm glad to read that you're taking charge of your bucks. I'm sure many of us will help to give you good advice as well. One thing to remember about stock market investing is that it is not a science; it is an art. Just like sports, there are many different ways to reach your end goals. Like you've probably read, people have different opinions about diversification, dividends, specific sectors (or even specific stocks) to invest, types of assets, the list never ends. As with anything else in life, use what you learn as a basis and apply it to a specific strategy, but be sure that it is completely your own. The only reason I say this is because if you try to copy someone else's strategy, you may miss something important that could be the key between making a bundle and losing your shirt.

What you post is so key. You have to know what your goals are and exactly what you need to do to reach them. 30 years ago i was looking to build and accumulate and grow. Now, although i still feel I need to do some of that, I am more interested in preservation and yield and tax strategy. It took a long time for my advisor to understand that my needs and desires changed with the times. I am definitely not one of those who stands by and gives discretion to his manager. I am totally hands on. I have all the time to research and learn. Doctors are notoriously not good businessmen. They spend their entire educational years learning everything but how to manage and invest. I am certainly no expert-but 30 years+ of managing my own pension plan, profit sharing plan, and personal investments has given me a little different perspective than most. I have seen the major swings, the bubbles, the crashes. I try not to get too excited one way or the other. I am in this for the long haul-and I try never to forget that.