The Stock Market thread: BUY! BUY! BUY! Sell, sell, sell...

[FlagDUDE08]

Re: The Stock Market thread: BUY! BUY! BUY! Sell, sell, sell...

I think that the key to any pharma stocks is understanding how patent expirations in their product line will impact the companies cash flows going forward. You can't predict how drug development will go (the companies can't even do that), you can estimate the impact of losing exclusivity of major earning drugs will have on the company.

This is also very true. Like I mentioned, LLY jumped because of a breakthrough on Alzheimer's. When they announced troubles with one of their researches, the stock dropped by about the same as it went up today. Tomorrow, short-term investors will cash in the profits.

 

[DrDemento]

Re: The Stock Market thread: BUY! BUY! BUY! Sell, sell, sell...

I think that the key to any pharma stocks is understanding how patent expirations in their product line will impact the companies cash flows going forward. You can't predict how drug development will go (the companies can't even do that), you can estimate the impact of losing exclusivity of major earning drugs will have on the company.

Absolutely. An example would be Lipitor or Plavix becoming generic and the effect on the parent company sales. You also have to so some research to find relationships that some of the major companies have with smaller biotech and bioengineering firms. In general, however, i have over the past 35 years to be relative safe if not upwardly explosive. I live by the maxim that any gain is good and any yield above what i could get from treasuries or banks is also good. I never mind some slower growth but I detest losing anything.

 

[DrDemento]

Re: The Stock Market thread: BUY! BUY! BUY! Sell, sell, sell...

I still think health care is a bubble, especially with PPACA. Sure, there will be some companies that will survive, but government cost will push many out. It's just a question of when the hot potato explodes.

Agree-the government keeps trying to hold down health care costs in every way they can. They keep tightening the clamps on physicians, hospitals, and drug companies. However, there will continue to be more new drugs developed for more uses-and the need will keep increasing as will health care costs in general as long as the population keeps growing. One would think the most effective method to control costs (of everything in this country) would be to stop encouraging population growth. i sometimes wonder if there is anything in this world that could not be made better by limiting population growth? Global warming, use of natural resources, need for social services, etc.

 

[FlagDUDE08]

Re: The Stock Market thread: BUY! BUY! BUY! Sell, sell, sell...

As much as I'd like to cash in these gains, I don't think I can necessarily afford it. I run fairly close to the point where I have to pay a tax penalty, so I need to make sure I let some of my losses stand that I can claim them as such, and then apply the tax overages to the next year. Of course, I could always make an estimated tax payment.

 

[FlagDUDE08]

Re: The Stock Market thread: BUY! BUY! BUY! Sell, sell, sell...

i sometimes wonder if there is anything in this world that could not be made better by limiting population growth? Global warming,

Sorry, have to...

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[DrDemento]

Re: The Stock Market thread: BUY! BUY! BUY! Sell, sell, sell...

FDude-We are getting to that part of the year where tax planning affects many of our investment decisions. I am pretty stable from year to year but I am not sure of all the ramifications of any new tax laws. Later this month I will be in contact with my advisor who can explain to me what is new and different this coming year. In my case, i do not think that making many changes will be necessary-but I just do not know yet. The one overriding belief that I have is that taxes will not be going down over the next many years. I suspect that in my case taking what I can now will be taxed less than in the future-but I await advice on this.

 

[5mn_Major]

Re: The Stock Market thread: BUY! BUY! BUY! Sell, sell, sell...

i sometimes wonder if there is anything in this world that could not be made better by limiting population growth?

That's really a great personal sacrifice. Few would offer up themself for the greater good.

 

[FlagDUDE08]

Re: The Stock Market thread: BUY! BUY! BUY! Sell, sell, sell...

Holy geez, am I glad I picked Eli Lilly (LLY) at 41 bucks... now that the news has digested so the home-gamers know what happened, they've called their brokers and put the stock at ANOTHER 52-week high.

 

[DrDemento]

Re: The Stock Market thread: BUY! BUY! BUY! Sell, sell, sell...

That's really a great personal sacrifice. Few would offer up themself for the greater good.

Was that a misread on your part? Limiting growth has little to do with offerring up themselves. It simply means having fewer offspring. As this country stands now there are incentives for having more children. I just wonder if those incentives were reduced/removed how it might affect the overall picture?

 

[DrDemento]

Re: The Stock Market thread: BUY! BUY! BUY! Sell, sell, sell...

Holy geez, am I glad I picked Eli Lilly (LLY) at 41 bucks... now that the news has digested so the home-gamers know what happened, they've called their brokers and put the stock at ANOTHER 52-week high.

If you are in it to also collect the roughly 4% yield then by all means sit with it or ride it. But this nice rally upward could be very short lived. The news was good but may not be enough to sustain this move much further. This kind of potential profit in the short term is hard to resist taking. Just my 2¢

 

[FlagDUDE08]

Re: The Stock Market thread: BUY! BUY! BUY! Sell, sell, sell...

Was that a misread on your part? Limiting growth has little to do with offerring up themselves. It simply means having fewer offspring. As this country stands now there are incentives for having more children. I just wonder if those incentives were reduced/removed how it might affect the overall picture?

You mean like how personal exemption, at least in terms of PPACA, goes from $200k for being single to $125k for being married?

 

[DrDemento]

Re: The Stock Market thread: BUY! BUY! BUY! Sell, sell, sell...

You mean like how personal exemption, at least in terms of PPACA, goes from $200k for being single to $125k for being married?

And tax exemptions and tax credits for each additional child and increased social benefits for more children. These can act as incentives. Just a thought but perhaps important.

 

[FlagDUDE08]

Re: The Stock Market thread: BUY! BUY! BUY! Sell, sell, sell...

I ended up pulling out. I don't wish to be a pig that deserves slaughter, so a quarter of my purchase to the black is good for me. If it goes down, I made a good move and saved some profits. If it continues to go up, I still made a profit, and there is no shame in taking it, since it's more than I had before. If I want yield, I can do better than 4%. Altria is over 5.25%.

 

[DrDemento]

Re: The Stock Market thread: BUY! BUY! BUY! Sell, sell, sell...

I ended up pulling out. I don't wish to be a pig that deserves slaughter, so a quarter of my purchase to the black is good for me. If it goes down, I made a good move and saved some profits. If it continues to go up, I still made a profit, and there is no shame in taking it, since it's more than I had before. If I want yield, I can do better than 4%. Altria is over 5.25%.

I really like that kind of thinking. The adage about pigs and chickens is usually true. The thought about holding it for yield was only meant to be considered if you felt it a safe place to park funds for a time. 4% is not bad in this current economy-while aiting to decide what else to do with the investment.

 

[dxmnkd316]

Re: The Stock Market thread: BUY! BUY! BUY! Sell, sell, sell...

I wouldn't call this a dot com bubble so much as I would a cold dose of reality. Why the heck were they going public, anyway?

I think bubble was appropriate. If Facebook hadn't blown up, we would have likely seen a bevy of additional .coms moving forward with IPOs.

No idea why they would go public. No idea at all. (But then again, Google was in a very similar situation as Facebook when they went public.)

 

[FlagDUDE08]

Re: The Stock Market thread: BUY! BUY! BUY! Sell, sell, sell...

I think bubble was appropriate. If Facebook hadn't blown up, we would have likely seen a bevy of additional .coms moving forward with IPOs.

No idea why they would go public. No idea at all. (But then again, Google was in a very similar situation as Facebook when they went public.)

Google had a good revenue stream, though. You use a search engine, you click on one of the top links, and Google earns 1 or 2 cents from the company that requested that link be prominently featured. Facebook doesn't really have much of a revenue stream.

 

[Almington]

Re: The Stock Market thread: BUY! BUY! BUY! Sell, sell, sell...

I ended up pulling out. I don't wish to be a pig that deserves slaughter, so a quarter of my purchase to the black is good for me. If it goes down, I made a good move and saved some profits. If it continues to go up, I still made a profit, and there is no shame in taking it, since it's more than I had before. If I want yield, I can do better than 4%. Altria is over 5.25%.

I'm not a huge fan of Altria in the long term considering that it has a horrible growth prospects considering the long term war on tobacco that is going on, its dangerously high debt-to-equity ratio and the fact that is it contained to the US market in which new smokers are tending to shy away from the perimium Marbouro's to cheeper options. I'm not sure that the dividend is all that sustainable going forward.

 

[FlagDUDE08]

Re: The Stock Market thread: BUY! BUY! BUY! Sell, sell, sell...

I'm not a huge fan of Altria in the long term considering that it has a horrible growth prospects considering the long term war on tobacco that is going on, its dangerously high debt-to-equity ratio and the fact that is it contained to the US market in which new smokers are tending to shy away from the perimium Marbouro's to cheeper options. I'm not sure that the dividend is all that sustainable going forward.

Nobody buys Altria for the growth. It was a very popular stock during the 2008 crash.

 

[DrDemento]

Re: The Stock Market thread: BUY! BUY! BUY! Sell, sell, sell...

Nobody buys Altria for the growth. It was a very popular stock during the 2008 crash.

There are many who have knocked Altria for as long as I have owned it-and what Almington and others have said is very important. But in spite of those thoughts-all of which I agree with and firmly believe-it has been my best gaining stock. During that time it has not only gone well up in value, it has split off Kraft and Philip Morris to me-Kraft i sold but PM I hold-and has consistently paid an extremely good dividend. I have already made my money from it many times over but i still hold some of it-it is an extremely well managed company that somehow seems to find a way no matter what the government has thrown in front of it. Not to mention that in the great down turn of 2008-2009 those dividends came very much in handy and allowed me to buy other stocks that became depressed in price. Going forward? Who knows? MO could collapse-but you could say that about a great number of companies and their track history has been superb. Just my 2¢ and I do not claim any special investment knowledge or training.

 

[FlagDUDE08]

Re: The Stock Market thread: BUY! BUY! BUY! Sell, sell, sell...

LLY now dropping. Looks like the excitement of the announcement has subsided, and I wouldn't be surprised if went down to 50. Although I didn't max out, I got out at a good time.