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The New WCHA IV (2013-14): Unlocked and Cocked

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Re: The New WCHA IV (2013-14): Unlocked and Cocked

gfmorris said:
For the record, I never felt that UAH was being dissed. I'm an engineer. I like uniformity wherever possible. We weren't going to win those games anyway, especially when you saw what we did on Saturday night. If there's a standard of "get here three hours before the game or it's getting postponed and X happens to you as a result", then great!

Okay, I've updated the spreadsheet and now the team that's out is Tech. I'll write more later, but I'm sure that Tech fans fully realize that the sweep this weekend really hurt their chances. The teams essentially flip-flopped: one is now in the home ice hunt, and the other is missing out.

You'll note that I don't follow the model 100%, but when I don't, I lay down my thinking in some text below the games. Also, the Week 24 tab has information about tiebreakers. We go all the way to the third tiebreaker, overall W%. I think that my notes should explain.

I'll have a full piece after I get some coffee in me and decide if I want to do best/worst today.

GFM
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Interesting because Playoff Status shows LSSU most likely to miss out:
http://www.playoffstatus.com/wchahockey/wchastandings.html
 
Re: The New WCHA IV (2013-14): Unlocked and Cocked

Shirtless Guy said:
Interesting because Playoff Status shows LSSU most likely to miss out:
http://www.playoffstatus.com/wchahockey/wchastandings.html
Click to expand...

I'm curious to know their methodology. Given that they're presenting probabilities, they're using some kind of statistical model. The question then is, "What model?" There's the likely difference.

I'm currently not doing anything probabilistically. As I've said before, I'd like to do a Monte Carlo simulation, but frankly, I've never set one up, and I'd probably spend a day doing it. I'm in exams right now, so I don't have the time to figure it out. I'd love to say, "12% of the time, Mankato gets the top seed", but I just can't. It's my hope that I'll have a better model in time for next season. It's begging to be done with PWR now taking comparisons 1-59.

GFM <— needs to worry about statistical quality control for a few days.
 
Re: The New WCHA IV (2013-14): Unlocked and Cocked

It's been a while since I've been up there, but I doubt they've shrunk the place in the meantime. To the best of my knowledge it's regulation. I'll let you figure out where I get info from.
 
Re: The New WCHA IV (2013-14): Unlocked and Cocked

gfmorris said:
I'm curious to know their methodology. Given that they're presenting probabilities, they're using some kind of statistical model. The question then is, "What model?" There's the likely difference.

I'm currently not doing anything probabilistically. As I've said before, I'd like to do a Monte Carlo simulation, but frankly, I've never set one up, and I'd probably spend a day doing it. I'm in exams right now, so I don't have the time to figure it out. I'd love to say, "12% of the time, Mankato gets the top seed", but I just can't. It's my hope that I'll have a better model in time for next season. It's begging to be done with PWR now taking comparisons 1-59.

GFM <— needs to worry about statistical quality control for a few days.
Click to expand...
Well, I'm sure your predictions revolve around the fact that LSSU is likely to sweep UAH. I assume that's the big difference where playoff odds still claims a decent chance of UAH winning one of those...and I hope they do.
 
davyd83 said:
I think it's not quite regulation because I've been there a half dozen times. It also has very shallow corners. The puck bounces around like a pinball!
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I think it's a lot like Lakeview Arena's second sheet, which I presumed to be smaller until corrected. The shape of the stands and ice rink location in relation to the building makes Ewigleben appear smaller.
 
Re: The New WCHA IV (2013-14): Unlocked and Cocked

Shirtless Guy said:
Well, I'm sure your predictions revolve around the fact that LSSU is likely to sweep UAH. I assume that's the big difference where playoff odds still claims a decent chance of UAH winning one of those...and I hope they do.
Click to expand...

Given our Friday night struggles and Lake State's Saturday struggles, it could be interesting! The boys desperately want points, and getting them at home would be great. Aren't the Lakers winless on WCHA Saturdays?

Sorry, Laker fans, we're not going to keep the shorts weather through to the weekend, but it'll be in the 60s on Saturday.

GFM <— should've left the house in shorts today.
 
Re: The New WCHA IV (2013-14): Unlocked and Cocked

gfmorris said:
Given our Friday night struggles and Lake State's Saturday struggles, it could be interesting! The boys desperately want points, and getting them at home would be great. Aren't the Lakers winless on WCHA Saturdays?

Sorry, Laker fans, we're not going to keep the shorts weather through to the weekend, but it'll be in the 60s on Saturday.

GFM <— should've left the house in shorts today.
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Almost. The Lakers have one Saturday WCHA win, at home against BG.
 
aparch said:
I think it's a lot like Lakeview Arena's second sheet, which I presumed to be smaller until corrected. The shape of the stands and ice rink location in relation to the building makes Ewigleben appear smaller.
Click to expand...

Apparently so does playing and skating on it.
 
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Re: The New WCHA IV (2013-14): Unlocked and Cocked

I think if you measured it, it would come out at 200 by 85, however I think the radius of the corners is different than say JLA or the JMSIA. It's definitely an advantage for Ferris at home.
 
Re: The New WCHA IV (2013-14): Unlocked and Cocked

manurespreader said:
I think if you measured it, it would come out at 200 by 85, however I think the radius of the corners is different than say JLA or the JMSIA. It's definitely an advantage for Ferris at home.
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I'm going to have to bring the tape measure next year!
 
Re: The New WCHA IV (2013-14): Unlocked and Cocked

gfmorris said:
This may make me unpopular in Houghton: http://uahhockey.com/blog/2014/02/18/2014-wcha-playoff-race-week-22/

I also present a possible scenario: the model acts as is, save UAH upsetting Northern in Huntsville, which would have Alaska-Anchorage at #3 and Alaska at #4. OH MY GOD THE TRAVEL COMPLAINTS

GFM
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And a tighter travel schedule as well. As previously mentioned, if Alaska should host playoffs, the series would be a Thurs/Fri/Sat shindig because the Carlson Center is booked on Sunday.
 
Re: The New WCHA IV (2013-14): Unlocked and Cocked

pdt1081 said:
In your tie-breakers you have BG going 1-0-1 this season against Ferris. They are 0-1-1. If your model holds, Nothern fans should be very happy about this.
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Ah, I messed that up, but it doesn't matter. I was doing the numbers from Ferris's perspective and not the other schools: BG is 0-1-1 against Ferris, and Bemidji is 1-3-0. It doesn't change anything to fix the numbers from the perspective of the opponent and not from Ferris's.
 
gfmorris said:
Ah, I messed that up, but it doesn't matter. I was doing the numbers from Ferris's perspective and not the other schools: BG is 0-1-1 against Ferris, and Bemidji is 1-3-0. It doesn't change anything to fix the numbers from the perspective of the opponent and not from Ferris's.
Click to expand...
Crazy thing, I thought of that as I was opening this thread again, before I even read your post.
 
Re: The New WCHA IV (2013-14): Unlocked and Cocked

pdt1081 said:
Crazy thing, I thought of that as I was opening this thread again, before I even read your post.
Click to expand...

Oh, I induced the confusion by stating it one way with the Ferris comparisons and another way with the Mankato comparisons. Thanks for getting me to stick with one of them.

GFM
 
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