Okay. Here's what I have worked out so far... Of the New WCHA schools (including UAH as an option), the average regular season attendance over the last three years is: 59.1%. 63.4% without UAH.
Of those schools, four have hosted playoff hockey: NMU, FSU, LSSU, and UAF. Fans in those cities averaged (again, over three years) to fill: 46.0% of the arenas. A reduction by 15%.
Now, here's how the "New WCHA" would have finished this year (yes, I know it's completely imbalanced).
Code:
W L T Pts Gms
Bemidji State 10 2 0 20 12
Northern Michigan 9 3 2 20 14
Ferris State 8 1 3 19 12
Lake Superior 8 7 1 17 16
Minnesota State 7 4 1 15 12
Alaska 6 8 2 14 16
Michigan Tech 5 7 0 10 12
Bowling Green 5 13 0 10 18
Alaska-Anchorage 3 8 1 7 12
Alabama-Huntsville 0 8 0 0 8
Using your format Donald, UAH and UAA don't make the playoff system.
Our first round becomes (and rink capacity):
BGSU at BSU (4,700), MTU at NMU (4,300), UAF at FSU (2,493), MSU-M at LSSU (4,000)
I have data for the last three years worth of playoffs for NMU, FSU, and LSSU. Attendance averaged:
NMU: 44.2%, FSU: 54.2%, LSSU: 31.2%.
For BSU, let's assume -15% from their season average of 82.8%, for a playoff average of 67.8%.
Our average attendance per night for the playoffs become:
BSU: 3,187; NMU: 1,901; FSU: 1,351; LSSU: 1,248. Let's figure 2.5 games for each arena, giving us a total first round attendance of: 19,218. Almost HALF of your estimate.
Let's move on to the second round (if we use the home ice championship venue method). For ease, let's just say the top four teams move on, with BSU hosting LSSU, and NMU hosting Ferris. You had an increase of almost 20% for your second round, so I'll do similar and say that the average regular season attendance shows up for this round:
BSU: 82.8% for 3,891/night, NMU 70.4% for 3027/night. Again, 2.5 games for this round gives us just 17,295 combined attendance for the second round.
Just 36,513 people for two rounds of hockey, at your price of $15 per person = $547,695.
And you still have a third round to go. Say Bemidji and NMU win, with BSU hosting NMU at the Sanford Center. Now, lets say they sell out the place, 4,700 people, at $15 a seat, for 2.5 nights. $70,500. Add that to the leagues take earlier, and we get $618,195.
Now, how does the money get split?
We have a ten team league, with eight playoff teams, four who hosted, two who hosted twice, and one who hosted the championship *(I'd like to point out at this point that the Championship host city under this format could be any WCHA school, just adjust the attendance)*. Don't forget to deduct any transportation and lodging costs for the traveling schools. You're looking at a much smaller check than you thought. Is it fair that UAA and UAH get $61,820 for sitting home, and was it worth it to win the league title at home for Bemidji? If the league covers the costs (I don't want to take the time to figure out ice-rental, staff payments, and travel costs for the post season), so let's take a lump sum $250,000 off that just to cover all playoff expenses. Now we're down to just $36,820 per team as a "Thank You" check from the league. Enough to re-coup the costs for the regular season road trips to UAH and BGSU.
] Plus, it will be great marketing for each respective university to show off their school, and the ADs and administration will love it.
