Uh, oh. Now you done it - made me go and do some calculations.
Say you take a 10 minute shower at 2.5 GPM (typical) of 120F water, and your water supply comes into your house at 70 F. The energy used to heat those 25 gallons of water by 70F is 10,000 BTU.
Now, if your hot water heater is 6 ft tall and 2 ft in diameter and has an insulation R-value of 24, then the rate of heat loss (to your 70F house) would be (6 * 2* pi) * 50 / 24 = 78 BTU/hr. So for your hot water heater to lose as much heat as you use in a single, 10 minute shower would take 127 hours - more than 5 days.
That right there should convince you that your hot water energy bill is driven by usage and not maintaining the temperature of the hot water heater. But in case you're still not convinced:
On a weekly basis, if you take a 10 min shower every day, you'd be paying for 70,000 BTUs to heat water "initially" and for 78*168 = 18470 BTU to maintain it, for a total of 116K.
Now, you can eliminate the 18470 maintenance BTUs by going tankless, but if that tankless water heater tempts you to add just 2 minutes to each shower, then you won't reduce - you'll break even.
If you have a wife and 3 teenage daughters, so that your nominal weekly usage is 7*5*10 = 350 minutes of showering, then your break-even is at a whopping 10 min 22 seconds per shower.