The definitive tournament speculation thread

[Josh Carey]

Hello, all. I've been on hiatus the first half of this year, but figured it was time to poke my head in these parts with tournament speculation season approaching. I'm about a week and a half earlier on this thread than last year, but hopefully this can get everything consolidated in one place from the get go.

What we know about the 2010 NCAA Tournament
11 Division-III Hockey teams will participate.
Those 11 teams will consist of...
- 7 Pool A teams that have won their conference tournament in conference with an automatic qualifier (AQ). Those conferences are the ECAC-East, ECAC-Northeast, NESCAC, SUNYAC, NCHA, MCHA and MIAC NEW: MCHA has earned an AQ.
- 1 Pool B team awarded to the best team from a conference without an automatic qualifier (AQ). Those conferences are the ECAC-West and MASCAC. NEW: MASCAC formation retains Pool B
- 3 Pool C teams awarded to teams not already in the tournament. NEW: One fewer bid due to MCHA AQ These teams are selected by the following primary and secondary criteria:

Primary Criteria:
Team's winning percentage in region (WIN, win%)
Strength of schedule, comprised of OWP and OOP:
Opponent's winning percentage in-region (OWP)
Opponent's opponent's winning percentage in-region (OOP, OOWP)
Record against common opponents of compared teams in-region (COP)
Head-to-head record of compared teams in-region (H2H)
Record against ranked teams in region (RNK, discussed below)

Secondary criteria
Head-to-head record of compared teams out of region
Team's winning percentage in all Division-III games (in and out of region)
Team's winning percentage in all games
Record against common non-Division-III opponents
Record against ranked teams in and out of region
Record against all common opponents (in and out of region)
Overall Division-III strength of schedule (in and out of region)
Winning percentage in the last 25% of the season

The weighting of each of these criteria in the selection process is not specified by the NCAA and is considered a subjective process by the committee members.

(I'm too lazy to look up the committee members right now, but will add the list again soon).

The eastern region consists of all teams in the ECAC conferences, MASCAC NESCAC, and SUNYAC. The western region consists of all teams in the NCHA, MCHA, and MIAC.

The committees will create regional rankings of the top teams in each region and teams under Pool C consideration. These rankings consists of 7 teams for the western region, and 15 teams for the eastern regions. Each region's committee will submit a final regional ranking which will be used by the national committee to award bids into the tournament.

The committees will provide rankings in advance of the tournament as a guideline. The final rankings used to seed the tournament will not be released. These rankings will create the "ranked teams" list used in the "record against ranked teams" criteria. The USCHO.com poll is *NOT* used in this process.

Teams will be seeded, per NCAA regulations, to keep flights to a minimum. The NCAA mandates teams can not travel more than 500 miles without flying for first round or quarterfinal games. This creates a situation in which eastern teams usually play eastern teams, and western teams usually play western teams, even if it creates a situation in higher seeded teams play earlier than their overall seeds would dictate.

As a general rule, higher seeded teams will host in the first round games and quarterfinal games. Exceptions are made when a higher seeded team does not put in a bid to host a game (Mass-Dartmouth, 2008), or does not have a suitable rink to host a game (Trinity, 2005). The final four will take place at Lake Placid, NY, among the top four remaining teams.

With an 11 team field, three first round games will be played. Five teams will receive byes into the quarterfinal round. The seeding of teams for the purposes of determining what teams receive byes is done using the same criteria that determines the Pool C teams.

 

[Josh Carey]

Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

That was the purely factual post. Here is the post with lessons learned from history that you can choose to ignore at your own risk:

1. It is impossible to predict with accuracy the teams that will be selected into the tournament.

2. The Pool B bid goes to the ECAC-West, usually to that conference's tournament champion. The MCHA has never had a team reach the NCAA Tournament. That will change this year. The MASCAC, however, has not had a team reach the NCAA Tournament. That will continue.

3. One highly ranked conference leader will almost certainly lose on the final weekend of the season, throwing discussions into a tail spin. This year, it will be Oswego.

4. The western region has not had four teams make the tournament since 2009. Due to the tournament's structure, four western teams are needed for the possibility of two western teams to make the final four.

5. The east's extra 8 ranked teams means there is a greater level of mediocrity in the rankings. Teams in the east can improve their record against ranked teams comparison by having many games against lower-ranked teams (Norwich, 2007). It has been insinuated in the past that committees may purposefully place teams as such to gain an advantage for higher ranked teams who may actually play in the tournament or be in consideration for Pool C.

6. A 7-4 split not cross-regionalizing Adrian mandates two east play-in winners will play in the quarterfinals.

7. Teams in the west always get screwed.

8. Teams in the east always get screwed.

9. The only bracket that could accommodate last year's tournament structure is...

Webb will be most amused if he ever sees it, but it's not going to happen.

 

[Josh Carey]

Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

And now, time for my first round of tournament speculation!

Automatic Qualifiers

Norwich (ECAC-E)
Curry (ECAC-NE)
Williams (NESCAC)
Plattsburgh (SUNYAC) {I am not buying a season without a SUNYAC Tournament loss from Oswego}
St. Norbert (NCHA)
Hamline (MIAC)
Adrian (MCHA)

Pool B

Elmira

Pool C

Oswego
St. Scholastica
Manhattanville

Seedings

E1 Oswego
E2 Norwich
E3 Elmira
E4 Plattsburgh
E5 Williams
E6 Curry
E7 Manhattanville

W1 St. Norbert
W2 Hamline
W3 St. Scholastica
W4 Adrian


"Last year's bracket": Using last year as a template to determine seeding

Opening Round

E7 Manhattanville at E2 Norwich
E6 Curry at E3 Elmira
E5 Williams at E4 Plattsburgh

Quarterfinals

Williams/Plattsburgh at Oswego
Curry/Elmira at M'ville/Norwich
Adrian at SNC
CSS at Hamline


Now, let's consider the fun Adrian allows us to have. For example, it is nearly as far from Adrian, MI to Elmira, NY as it is from there to De Pere, WI. Per NCAA regulations, Adrian actually can not travel to St. Paul, MN (almost every MIAC school) for the first two rounds of the tournament. Adrian's inclusion means we could see...


*Adrian Fun Bracket*

Opening Round

W4 Adrian at E3 Elmira
E7 M'ville at E6 Curry
W3 CSS at W2 Hamline

Quarterfinals

Adrian/Elmira at Oswego
CSS/Hamline at SNC
M'ville/Curry at Norwich
Williams at Plattsburgh


Yes, Adrian is, by my math, allowed to travel to Oswego. So the Bulldogs could conceivably be rewarded for their first NCAA trip with back-to-back trips to western and central New York in the span of four days. This scenario is much fairer to the top seeds, which is why I think it could get some traction. There is a belief the NCAA tried to send Hobart west last year, only to have it nixed by the NCAA. This likely falls within the NCAA parameters.

Cue Webb saying how he will be amused if he ever sees this...

 

[NUProf]

Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

I have been saying all along that I think Adrian will be sent East if both Elmira and Oswego get in. They'd really only need one bus trip (if they win, they just drive up the road for their QF game without going back to Adrian)

 

[norm1909]

Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

Alas, reality is:

Primary criteria:
Money, money, money
Commitee bias
Money, money, money
Legacy, politics, media potential, location, etc
Money, money, money

Secondary criteria: (AKA Primary Justification Excuses)
See Josh's "Primary Criteria"

Tertiary criteria: (AKA Secondary Justification Excuses)
See Josh's "Secondary Critria"

Alas, the smoke in the smoke filled room may not come exclusively from tobacco.

 

[Matthew Webb]

Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

Yes, Adrian is, by my math, allowed to travel to Oswego. So the Bulldogs could conceivably be rewarded for their first NCAA trip with back-to-back trips to western and central New York in the span of four days. This scenario is much fairer to the top seeds, which is why I think it could get some traction. There is a belief the NCAA tried to send Hobart west last year, only to have it nixed by the NCAA. This likely falls within the NCAA parameters.

Cue Webb saying how he will be amused if he ever sees this...

Highly, though it's a legitimate possibility. St. Norbert and Stevens Point are the only two NCHA/MIAC teams within 500 miles of Adrian so the travel options are limited out here -- at least per anyone's best interpretation of the rules. If it's a 7-4 split and Adrian does win the MCHA AQ it will be interesting to see how the Western committee treats it come bracket making time. Why? Because if Adrian is out East the West is resigned to only have one team in Placid unless Adrian is able to hammer its way through two top Eastern teams in a four day span.

If I were Western Czar, I would likely put up quite the fight against such a situation, send Adrian to St. Norbert (which as of now would be a tournament team) citing last year as precedent and do whatever I could to get two Western teams to Placid again.

Gotta admit, Adrian's geographical situation and the NCAA's arbitrary 500 mile rule certainly will make things interesting should the Bulldogs score the AQ.

9. The only bracket that could accommodate last year's tournament structure is...[/IMG]

Webb will be most amused if he ever sees it, but it's not going to happen.

Like any of us knew they'd pull the rabbit out of the hat and have the teams from the same region play in the semifinals.

There is a belief the NCAA tried to send Hobart west last year, only to have it nixed by the NCAA.

If that actually happened I believe it was in 2008, not last year.

 

[Matthew Webb]

Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

I have to fix a few dates regarding the NCAA rankings, but reposted from last season's thread:

While making that last post I had to look a few things up. As a lot of the same questions come up fairly often, I thought I should combine some of what Josh posted with some of what I came across into a sort of "Tournament FAQ".


2010 NCAA TOURNAMENT FAQ


Q: How exactly is the tournament laid out?

A: 11 Division-III Hockey teams will participate. Those eleven teams will receive a Pool A, B or C bid, defined as:

- 7 Pool A teams that have won their conference tournament in conferences with an automatic qualifier (AQ). Those conferences are the ECAC-East, ECAC-Northeast, NESCAC, SUNYAC, NCHA, MCHA and MIAC.
- 1 Pool B team awarded to the best team from a conference without an automatic qualifier (AQ). Those conferences are the ECAC-West and MASCAC.
- 3 Pool C teams awarded to teams not already in the tournament. These teams are selected by the following primary and secondary criteria.



Q: What are the primary and secondary tournament selection criteria?

A:

Primary Criteria:
Team's winning percentage in region (WIN, win%)
Strength of schedule, comprised of OWP and OOP:
Opponent's winning percentage in-region (OWP)
Opponent's opponent's winning percentage in-region (OOP, OOWP)
Record against common opponents of compared teams in-region (COP)
Head-to-head record of compared teams in-region (H2H)
Record against ranked teams in region (RNK, discussed below)

Secondary Criteria:
Head-to-head record of compared teams out of region
Team's winning percentage in all Division-III games (in and out of region)
Team's winning percentage in all games
Record against common non-Division-III opponents
Record against ranked teams in and out of region
Record against all common opponents (in and out of region)
Overall Division-III strength of schedule (in and out of region)
Winning percentage in the last 25% of the season



Q: How do we know how the committee weights the stated criteria?

A: We don't.


Q: Who is on the selection committee?

A: The committees will create regional rankings of the top teams in each region and teams under Pool C consideration. These rankings consist of 7 teams for the West Region, and 15 teams for the East Region. Each region's committee will submit a final regional ranking which will be used by the national committee to award bids into the tournament.

Eastern Committee:
Bruce Delventhal, Plattsburgh (chair)
Michael Letzeisen, ECAC
Michael McShane, Norwich (co-chair)
Chris Potter, Wesleyan
Chuck Sack, Neumann

Western Committee:
Mark Ostapina, MSOE (chair)
Tim Bald, St. Norbert (co-chair)
Brett Petersen, Gustavus Adolphus
Sean Goldsworthy, St. Olaf
Terry Watkins, Wisconsin - Stout
Jasen Wise, Marian

National Committee:
Delventhal, McShane, Ostapina, Bald



Q: When are the NCAA rankings released? (dates are incorrect)

A: The committees will provide rankings in advance of the tournament as a guideline. The first rankings, on February 10, will not be released to the public. Subsequent rankings on February 17, 24, and March 3, will be released. The final rankings on March 8 used to select and "seed" the tournament will not be released. These rankings will create the "ranked teams" list used in the "record against ranked teams" criteria. The USCHO.com Poll, PWR, KRACH and RPI are *NOT* used in this process.



Q: How is the tournament "seeded"?

A: Once selected, teams will be grouped in clusters according to natural geographic proximity. Teams will then be paired according to geographic proximity. A team may be moved to numerically balance the bracket, if geographic proximity is maintained. Teams should be paired and eligible sites should be selected according to geographic proximity (within 500 miles).

-Teams may be seeded on a regional basis using the regional selection criteria. However, geographic proximity takes precedence over seeding.

-Teams from the same conference do not have to play one another in the first round, as long as geographic proximity is maintained.

-The highest-seeded team that meets all site selection criteria will be selected as the host institution, provided geographic proximity is maintained.



Q: Have teams from the East and West ever played each other in the quarterfinals?

A: Though a non-viable option at this present time due to the aforementioned travel limitations (with the possible exception of Adrian), it has happened in the past. Those instances were:

2001, New England College @ UW River Falls (UWRF 8 NEC 1, UWRF 2, NEC 1)
2000, Wentworth @ St. Thomas (UST 6 WIT 0, UST 10 WIT 3)
1999, Middlebury @ St. Norbert (SNC 4 MIDD 2, MIDD 6 SNC 3, Midd wins mini-game 2-0)
1997, Elmira @ St. John’s (SJU 2 ELM 2, SJU 4 ELM 2)
1996, Bowdoin @ River Falls (UWRF 7 BOW 1, UWRF 7 BOW 3)



Q: What is the history of tournament expansion?

A:

1985-2001, 8 teams
2001-2005, 9 teams
2006-2008, 10 teams
2009, 11 teams


When was the last time four Western teams were in the tournament?

A: 2009 (Superior, Norbert, St. Scholastica, Stout, Gustavus Adolphus). Prior to last season, 1998 (St. Norbert, Stevens Point, Augsburg and River Falls)



Q: When was the last time two Western teams were in the Frozen Four?

A: 2009 (Stout, Gustavus Adolphus). Prior to that 2001 (Superior, River Falls), 2000 (Superior, St. Thomas), and 1998 (Stevens Point, Augsburg)



Q: Has a MCHA or ECACNE team ever won a NCAA tournament game?

A: This will be the first year a MCHA team makes the field, but a ECACNE team has won once. UMass-Dartmouth defeated Geneseo 8-2 in 2006. The ECACNE is a combined 1-11 all-time in the NCAA tournament.

 

[elbojpb]

Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

If I were Western Czar, I would likely put up quite the fight against such a situation, send Adrian to St. Norbert (which as of now would be a tournament team) citing last year as precedent and do whatever I could to get two Western teams to Placid again.

However, if money is the primary criterion, three Eastern teams would potentially generate more revenue in LP than a 2:2 split. {reference the decision to include Elmira in 2006}

 

[jerrynu26]

Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

However, if money is the primary criterion, three Eastern teams would potentially generate more revenue in LP than a 2:2 split. {reference the decision to include Elmira in 2006}

Added to that if there are 3 eastern teams in the semi's, it is likely at least one is "local".

07-08 semi and finals drew almost 2,000 more per game than 08-09.

 

[Matthew Webb]

Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

However, if money is the primary criterion, three Eastern teams would potentially generate more revenue in LP than a 2:2 split. {reference the decision to include Elmira in 2006}

Oh, for sure. However, revenue raising does not fall within the purview of the Western Czar.

 

[AGPennypacker]

Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

What we know about the 2010 NCAA Tournament
11 Division-III Hockey teams will participate.
Those 11 teams will consist of...
- 7 Pool A teams that have won their conference tournament in conference with an automatic qualifier (AQ). Those conferences are the ECAC-East, ECAC-Northeast, NESCAC, SUNYAC, NCHA, MCHA and MIAC NEW: MCHA has earned an AQ.
- 1 Pool B team awarded to the best team from a conference without an automatic qualifier (AQ). Those conferences are the ECAC-West and MASCAC. NEW: MASCAC formation retains Pool B
- 3 Pool C teams awarded to teams not already in the tournament. NEW: One fewer bid due to MCHA AQ These teams are selected by the following primary and secondary criteria:

Great overall post. I wasn't too well versed on how everything worked.

I'm sure this has probably been discussed at length somewhere else but I'm too lazy to look for it; Why doe the MCHA get an AQ over an unquestionably stronger conference in the ECACW? What did the MCHA have to go through or what were the criteria for it to be selected as an AQ? Realistically, the winner of the ECACW will play in the tournament, but theoretically, they could not have a single team in. Just doesn't make sense to me.

 

[CARDS_rule_the_Burgh]

Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

Great overall post. I wasn't too well versed on how everything worked.

I'm sure this has probably been discussed at length somewhere else but I'm too lazy to look for it; Why doe the MCHA get an AQ over an unquestionably stronger conference in the ECACW? What did the MCHA have to go through or what were the criteria for it to be selected as an AQ? Realistically, the winner of the ECACW will play in the tournament, but theoretically, they could not have a single team in. Just doesn't make sense to me.

Basically, if you play 2 consecutive years with at least 7 members (of that Division, so no DII), you get an AQ. The MCHA also had to get official recognition as a single-sport conference, something I don't think the ECACW has to worry about, because of their ECAC affiliations.

Somebody, please correct me if I have spoken in error.

 

[AGPennypacker]

Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

Basically, if you play 2 consecutive years with at least 7 members (of that Division, so no DII), you get an AQ. The MCHA also had to get official recognition as a single-sport conference, something I don't think the ECACW has to worry about, because of their ECAC affiliations.

Somebody, please correct me if I have spoken in error.

Interesting. Thanks for the info.

 

[CARDS_rule_the_Burgh]

Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

Once the ECAC-W gets a seventh member, the 2-year clock will start. That clock has already started for the MASCAC. It'll be interesting in '11-'12, because MASCAC will have an AQ and the formula then results in no Pool B... Then you REALLY have a chance for 0 ECAC-W representation. (although I can't see the committee doing that)

 

[Josh Carey]

Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

Great overall post. I wasn't too well versed on how everything worked.

Exactly why I posted it. Saves a lot of time for people unfamiliar with the process, and gets us into some real discussion when everybody is on the same page.

Basically, if you play 2 consecutive years with at least 7 members (of that Division, so no DII), you get an AQ. The MCHA also had to get official recognition as a single-sport conference, something I don't think the ECACW has to worry about, because of their ECAC affiliations.

Once the ECAC-W gets a seventh member, the 2-year clock will start. That clock has already started for the MASCAC. It'll be interesting in '11-'12, because MASCAC will have an AQ and the formula then results in no Pool B... Then you REALLY have a chance for 0 ECAC-W representation. (although I can't see the committee doing that)

Correct on both points. The MCHA having an AQ and the ECAC-West not has nothing to do with the relative merits of either conference. It has everything to do with the ECAC-West being unable or unwilling to field seven teams (though it's worth noting that until 2005, when RIT moved to Division I, they did. Well, after they brought LVC over from the ECAC-NE... and you quickly see conference realignment isn't exactly uncommon).

 

[joecct]

Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

Monkey wrenches

(a) Oswego and Plattsburgh do not win the SUNYAC. Do 3 SUNYAC teams make the tournament?
(b) Norwich does not win the ECAC-E. Does Norwich make the tournament?
(c) Gotteramdung scenario - both (a) and (b) happen. Are the Pool C teams Oswego, Plattsburgh and Norwich which screws the West, and maybe the ECAC-W?
(d) Western Gotteramdung - #1 seeds do not win the NCHA or MIAC tournaments, but Adrian wins the MCHA - where will Adrian go then?

Yea it is all 2 months away, but playing with doomsday scenarios sure beats playing a nice game of chess.

 

[Dyce]

Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

Monkey wrenches

(a) Oswego and Plattsburgh do not win the SUNYAC. Do 3 SUNYAC teams make the tournament?
(b) Norwich does not win the ECAC-E. Does Norwich make the tournament?
(c) Gotteramdung scenario - both (a) and (b) happen. Are the Pool C teams Oswego, Plattsburgh and Norwich which screws the West, and maybe the ECAC-W?
(d) Western Gotteramdung - #1 seeds do not win the NCHA or MIAC tournaments, but Adrian wins the MCHA - where will Adrian go then?

Yea it is all 2 months away, but playing with doomsday scenarios sure beats playing a nice game of chess.

Ooh, one scenario to append to situation (c): say the ECAC-W continues to have a down season outside of Elmira, and Pool C is indeed flooded with upsets from other conferences. If Elmira also loses in the ECAC-W tournament, does the NCAA dare award them Pool B rather than the conference champion (particularly in light of what Neumann did with their unlikely ECAC-W run last season)?

 

[PSUChamps2001]

Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

Monkey wrenches

(a) Oswego and Plattsburgh do not win the SUNYAC. Do 3 SUNYAC teams make the tournament?

Depends on Jan 30th...If, sorry about that, WHEN Plattsburgh beats Oswego and if they can run the table and even lose in the Championship game (Oswego also) then yes.

(b) Norwich does not win the ECAC-E. Does Norwich make the tournament?

If they continue to win yes

(c) Gotteramdung scenario - both (a) and (b) happen. Are the Pool C teams Oswego, Plattsburgh and Norwich which screws the West, and maybe the ECAC-W?

If a and b both happen, yes...sorry west...the west has done little to support their case as the better region this year...

(d) Western Gotteramdung - #1 seeds do not win the NCHA or MIAC tournaments, but Adrian wins the MCHA - where will Adrian go then?

they will be the last western seed...probably will fly east unless snc is available or they may fly another eastern team out west...

 

[MountieBoyOz]

Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

Adrian didn't do themselves any favors in getting an at-large bid. However, they are still the favorites for the MCHA bid.

And Remy, we'll see about the 30th. Now is a good time to break your hex over us at the Triple C.

 

[PSUChamps2001]

Re: The definitive tournament speculation thread

Adrian didn't do themselves any favors in getting an at-large bid. However, they are still the favorites for the MCHA bid.

And Remy, we'll see about the 30th. Now is a good time to break your hex over us at the Triple C.

4-0 now when Im at Oswego...3 for Plattsburgh and 1 for Oswego...