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The 2020 Pairwise Predictor

TonyTheTiger20

TonyTheTiger20

#SOAR
Good morning friends! The 2020 version of the Pairwise Predictor is going live this afternoon once the Wisconsin/Duluth game goes final. I'll post a link to it here as soon as we know the result of that game. The Predictor is now live! https://www.bcinterruption.com/bost...irwise-predictor-frozen-four-boston-wisconsin

<a href="https://www.bcinterruption.com/boston-college-bc-eagles-womens-hockey/2020/2/23/21149480/what-if-the-2020-ncaa-womens-hockey-tournament-pairwise-predictor-frozen-four-boston-wisconsin">
<img src="https://i.imgur.com/W8u3sgH.png" alt="Click here to go to the Predictor!" width="400" height="400">
</a>

I'll be out wicked late tonight (I'm in Vegas for the NASCAR race and it ended up being a doubleheader because of a rainout last night), but I have it ready to push live from my phone... at least as long as Wisconsin wins, since that's what I prepopulated into the sheet. So of course I cursed them and Duluth is going to win now. I'll do my best to update it remotely if I have to.

Anyway, I'm prepping this thread so it's easy for me to post the link while on mobile. Happy Predicting!
 
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Re: The 2020 Pairwise Predictor

TonyTheTiger20 said:
Good morning friends! The 2020 version of the Pairwise Predictor is going live this afternoon once the Wisconsin/Duluth game goes final. I'll post a link to it here as soon as we know the result of that game.

<img src="https://i.imgur.com/W8u3sgH.png" width="400" height="400">

I'll be out wicked late tonight (I'm in Vegas for the NASCAR race and it ended up being a doubleheader because of a rainout last night), but I have it ready to push live from my phone... at least as long as Wisconsin wins, since that's what I prepopulated into the sheet. So of course I cursed them and Duluth is going to win now. I'll do my best to update it remotely if I have to.

Anyway, I'm prepping this thread so it's easy for me to post the link while on mobile. Happy Predicting!
Click to expand...

As always, we appreciate the work that goes into this stuff.
 
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Re: The 2020 Pairwise Predictor

Looks great as always, but with more than 9.6 billion unique outcomes still possible, I think I'll wait a week before I start playing with it.
 
Re: The 2020 Pairwise Predictor

TonyTheTiger20 said:
For what it's worth the highest I can get BC without winning Hockey East is 10th :(
Click to expand...

One thing I noticed (not that it makes all that much difference) was in situations where Minnesota passed Wisconsin in RPI (UW loses in the WCHA semi, for example), the predictor was still showing Wisconsin above Minnesota in the 'results' box. I assume that might be because Wisconsin would still win the Pairwise pair?
 
Re: The 2020 Pairwise Predictor

robertearle said:
One thing I noticed (not that it makes all that much difference) was in situations where Minnesota passed Wisconsin in RPI (UW loses in the WCHA semi, for example), the predictor was still showing Wisconsin above Minnesota in the 'results' box. I assume that might be because Wisconsin would still win the Pairwise pair?
Click to expand...
Does UW hold an insurmountable lead in Common Opponents? UW holds a +1 advantage in H2H, so UW can win the pair without leading in RPI if it takes COp.
 
Re: The 2020 Pairwise Predictor

ARM said:
Does UW hold an insurmountable lead in Common Opponents? UW holds a +1 advantage in H2H, so UW can win the pair without leading in RPI if it takes COp.
Click to expand...

It's pretty large, 7.000 to 6.625 right now, and given that the only games left are against teams that both of them have played 4x already, a loss to one of them isn't enough to swing it that much.

Actually, Wisconsin probably has BC to thank for that. 0.500 of that difference is courtesy of the Eagles tying Minnesota.
 
Re: The 2020 Pairwise Predictor

ARM said:
Does UW hold an insurmountable lead in Common Opponents? UW holds a +1 advantage in H2H, so UW can win the pair without leading in RPI if it takes COp.
Click to expand...

UW currently lead Common opponents 7.0 to 6.625. Yes, If my math is correct, a Minn win over OSU and a UW loss to Duluth, and then a Minn win over Duluth would change it to 6.825 to 6.8; Wisconsin still wins the pair. But when things are that close - each with a 'conference championship', and 'common opponents' essentially a tie - who knows what the selection people might do.

I should have done the math before posting; still probably worth getting Grant to double-check, etc.
 
Re: The 2020 Pairwise Predictor

robertearle said:
... each with a 'conference championship'...
Click to expand...
The message has always been that the committee doesn't care at all about such things, or margin of defeat, when the games took place, etc. Who knows if that is true.
 
Re: The 2020 Pairwise Predictor

That fandangled chart looks like a lot of work to fill in. Under what circumstances, if any, can UW topple Cornell?
 
Re: The 2020 Pairwise Predictor

Timothy A said:
That fandangled chart looks like a lot of work to fill in. Under what circumstances, if any, can UW topple Cornell?
Click to expand...

For the most part, If Wisconsin wins the WCHA and Cornell loses one somewhere along the way. (Though there may be instances where even then Cornell says ahead; there was one set of outcomes I had in yesterday? this morning? that was a tie through four decimal places, with Wisconsin ahead at the fifth decimal place.)
 
Re: The 2020 Pairwise Predictor

robertearle said:
For the most part, If Wisconsin wins the WCHA and Cornell loses one somewhere along the way. (Though there may be instances where even then Cornell says ahead; there was one set of outcomes I had in yesterday? this morning? that was a tie through four decimal places, with Wisconsin ahead at the fifth decimal place.)
Click to expand...

I just tried a couple combinations, and indeed found a couple where even if Wisconsin wins and Cornell loses one sometime, Cornell stays ahead. And here's the bad news (sorry, Grant). they hinge on Boston College and their first round series against UConn, along with Robert Morris doing well.

Because they were regular season opponents for Wisconsin, if BC and RMU do well, it boosts Wisconsin's RPI. And does so just enough to put them ahead of Cornell.

So: Wisconsin wins WCHA, Cornell loses one somewhere along the way, RMU wins the CHA and BC beats UConn in two in their first round. But even some of those are *really* close in RPI.

----

Adding, it would be better for UW if Cornell's loss comes later: If they lose one in their first round, but survive and go on to win their tournament, it seems like the later 'quality win bonus' helps more than the early 'bad loss' hurts. But if they lose later, not only the loss itself but missing out on the quality win bonus hurts more. (of course, if they want to lose twice, even better!)

This is system is what the word 'arcane' was coined for!

------

I just found a combination where Cornell beats out Wisconsin 0.65903 to 0.65900 (yeah, I wrote it down). The USCHO web site would show that as a 'tie' at 0.6950.
 
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Re: The 2020 Pairwise Predictor

Timothy A said:
That fandangled chart looks like a lot of work to fill in.
Click to expand...
It definitely is at this point in the tournaments (or at least with having to input the CHA winners still, that's kind of annoying). After the quarterfinals the winners are pre-filled though and it gets much, much easier.

robertearle said:
Because they were regular season opponents for Wisconsin, if BC [does] well, it boosts Wisconsin's RPI.
Click to expand...
Bad news for Wisconsin then :o
 
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Re: The 2020 Pairwise Predictor

TonyTheTiger20 said:
Bad news for Wisconsin then :o
Click to expand...

BC success isn't absolutely necessary, but it is/would be helpful.

And hey, two more people - me and Tim - now rooting for you! I could even put on my BC sweatshirt during the games! (Xmas present from my niece years ago; she went there.)
 
Re: The 2020 Pairwise Predictor

robertearle said:
BC success isn't absolutely necessary, but it is/would be helpful.

And hey, two more people - me and Tim - now rooting for you! I could even put on my BC sweatshirt during the games! (Xmas present from my niece years ago; she went there.)
Click to expand...
WOOHOO! We'll take all the help we can get :D
 
Re: The 2020 Pairwise Predictor

robertearle said:
BC success isn't absolutely necessary, but it is/would be helpful.

And hey, two more people - me and Tim - now rooting for you! I could even put on my BC sweatshirt during the games! (Xmas present from my niece years ago; she went there.)
Click to expand...

Root for BC? Ummm,,,,,well,,,,,,scratches head, grimaces, clinches teeth......I suppose, though when they were good I really disliked them. A lot.
 
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