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The 2015 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread

  • Thread starter Thread starter Priceless
  • Start date Start date
Re: The 2015 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread

IF higher seeded teams win every game:

Fargo: #1 North Dakota vs Robert Morris; Omaha vs Quinnipiac
South Bend: #4 Denver vs Bowling Green; Miami vs Minnesota

Providence: #2 Mankato vs Lowell; Duluth vs Providence
Manchester:#3 Boston U vs St Cloud; Michigan Tech vs Boston C
 
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Re: The 2015 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread

This year's parley:
Anyone but Minnesota winning B1G
Anyone but Quinnipiac winning the ECAC
New Hampshire or Vermont in Hockey East
Ferris State in the WCHA

Since the AHA is an autobid anyway and the NCHC has all four tournament teams in the field, the cut line is guaranteed to be no lower than 12 instead of 11. That helps bubble teams.
 
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Re: The 2015 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread

We've added a couple of things this year:

1) A unique URL for each unique scenario, along with Facebook, Twitter and Google+ buttons. Following the link lets you see that scenario and play with it.

2) We're keeping track of all of the submissions and showing some of the data here: http://www.uscho.com/rankings/pwp-results/
 
Re: The 2015 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread

Priceless said:
IF higher seeded teams win every game:

Fargo: #1 North Dakota vs Robert Morris; Omaha vs Quinnipiac
Providence: #4 Denver vs Lowell; Michigan Tech vs Providence

South Bend: #2 Mankato vs Bowling Green; Miami vs Minnesota
Manchester:#3 Boston U vs St Cloud; Duluth vs Boston C
Click to expand...
Can't have mankato and BGSU in this round.
 
Re: The 2015 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread

Priceless said:
This year's parley:
Anyone but Minnesota winning B1G
Anyone but Quinnipiac winning the ECAC
New Hampshire or Vermont in Hockey East
Ferris State in the WCHA

Since the AHA is an autobid anyway and the NCHC has all four tournament teams in the field, the cut line is guaranteed to be no lower than 12 instead of 11. That helps bubble teams.
Click to expand...

If SCSU losses both games they would have a less than .500 so wouldnt they then be eliminated?
 
Re: The 2015 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread

klbaum1077 said:
If SCSU losses both games they would have a less than .500 so wouldnt they then be eliminated?
Click to expand...

Right, but the parley requires that the conference winner will be an autobid team. That won't be the case for the NCHC winner. Or, it looks like, the ECAC winner. All scenarios so far have any winner jumping into the top 10. Same with Vermont. Looks like only the B1G, Ferris State and New Hampshire are the only automatic qualifiers. Very good news for bubble teams.

Early scenarios show Minnesota is not in even with a win on Saturday; BC and PC both appear to be safely in despite losing tonight.

ETA: PC out: http://www.uscho.com/rankings/pairwise-predictor/pwp_5506503dc7a74/
http://www.uscho.com/rankings/pairwise-predictor/pwp_5506512d68eb0/
 
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Priceless said:
Right, but the parley requires that the conference winner will be an autobid team. That won't be the case for the NCHC winner. Or, it looks like, the ECAC winner. All scenarios so far have any winner jumping into the top 10. Same with Vermont. Looks like only the B1G, Ferris State and New Hampshire are the only automatic qualifiers. Very good news for bubble teams.

Early scenarios show Minnesota is not in even with a win on Saturday; BC and PC both appear to be safely in despite losing tonight.

ETA: PC out: http://www.uscho.com/rankings/pairwise-predictor/pwp_5506503dc7a74/
http://www.uscho.com/rankings/pairwise-predictor/pwp_5506512d68eb0/
Click to expand...

Not sure what you mean about auto qualifiers, Priceless.

My way of looking at is not whether they qualify automatically, by whether they displace a current bubble team.

Considered like that, all ECAC except QU, all B10 except Minnesota, all HEA except BU, and Ferris are threats. Plus AHA of course.
 
Re: The 2015 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread

As I find interesting results I'll post them here

Mankato #1 overall: http://www.uscho.com/rankings/pairwise-predictor/pwp_550653c1b90c5/
Duluth still alive for a 1-seed: http://t.co/YJ6Hd1Jt8A
Yale still alive: http://www.uscho.com/rankings/pairwise-predictor/pwp_550655ecb5cfe/
Only 2 from Hockey East: http://www.uscho.com/rankings/pairwise-predictor/pwp_550659576dcad/
***NO BOSTON COLLEGE*** http://www.uscho.com/rankings/pairwise-predictor/pwp_55065cc371dcf/ (hat tip @brosie_31)
OMAHA OUT OF TOP 8 http://www.uscho.com/rankings/pairwise-predictor/pwp_55065ef925cfe/ (hat tip @icehockeystick)
 
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Priceless said:
Right, but the parley requires that the conference winner will be an autobid team. That won't be the case for the NCHC winner. Or, it looks like, the ECAC winner. All scenarios so far have any winner jumping into the top 10. Same with Vermont. Looks like only the B1G, Ferris State and New Hampshire are the only automatic qualifiers. Very good news for bubble teams.

Early scenarios show Minnesota is not in even with a win on Saturday; BC and PC both appear to be safely in despite losing tonight.

ETA: PC out: http://www.uscho.com/rankings/pairwise-predictor/pwp_5506503dc7a74/
http://www.uscho.com/rankings/pairwise-predictor/pwp_5506512d68eb0/
Click to expand...
That's strange. The handful of scenarios I ran all had MN in even with first round loss.
 
Re: The 2015 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread

SJHovey said:
That's strange. The handful of scenarios I ran all had MN in even with first round loss.
Click to expand...

The Gophers look like the ultimate bubble team.
 
Re: The 2015 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread

It looks like spots 1-8 are going to remain 1-8 regardless. Ranges that I have found:
North Dakota: 1-2
Mankato: 1-2
BU 3-6
Miami 3-6
Denver: 3-7
Michigan Tech: 3-7
Duluth: 4-7
Omaha: 8-9

More than likely Fargo is going to have North Dakota, Omaha and Robert Morris (or Michigan State)...and a 3-seed, possibly the Gophers.

ETA: A scenario where Omaha is passed has been found.
 
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Re: The 2015 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread

Priceless said:
It looks like spots 1-8 are going to remain 1-8 regardless. Ranges that I have found:
North Dakota: 1-2
Mankato: 1-2
BU 3-6
Miami 3-6
Denver: 3-7
Michigan Tech: 3-7
Duluth: 4-7
Omaha: 8

More than likely Fargo is going to have North Dakota, Omaha and Robert Morris (or Michigan State)...and a 3-seed, possibly the Gophers.
Click to expand...

Did you even look at the aggregator?

http://www.uscho.com/rankings/pwp-results/

The top 6 will be in the top 7 but Miami can fall to 9, Omaha can fall to 11.
 
Re: The 2015 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread

Looks like only the perfect storm keeps BC out. Most teams that can pass them do so only as Tournament Champions thus reducing the Automatic Qualifiers out of the top 16. While technically not a lock they are very close to it.
 
Re: The 2015 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread

How does the aggregator work? Is it taking the scenarios we are running as its data?
An how is it updated?

It shows MN as having a range for 8-14, but I've been getting them 15, 16 and 17 in different scenarios for over an hour now.
 
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