The 2015 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread

[Numbers]

Re: The 2015 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread

The reason MN will go to Fargo isn't attendance, it's travel.
Fargo is the only region that isn't considered a "flight" for MN. That means there will have to be some really compelling reason not to send them there.

Pretty much the only 2 ways MN doesn't go to Fargo is if they fail to make the tournament, or both MN and UND end up in the same seeding band.

I agree for the most part, Stauber. However, what about this:

Minnesota and UMD both end up as #2s, and UMD falls into the Fargo's natural bracket place?
Or, I am not sure the rules, but google says Omaha is 424 miles by car to Fargo. Do they go by driving distance or a straight line? If by straight line, then Omaha could substitute for Minnesota also.
And, interesting that MichTech and Northern Mich (who is not really a candidate this year) are just outside the 400 mile limit.

And, more generally, this is the problem (and it's not really a problem....) with Fargo, Denver, or even Omaha hosting. There are simply very few other schools within driving distance, so the same matchups would seem to recur.

 

[FiveHole12]

Re: The 2015 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread

For attendance reasons, it is reasonable to assume that BC would draw more fannies in the seats at Providence than Providence College would. PC has trouble filling their 3000 seat on campus arena.

But from a BC fan perspective, I'll take the South Bend Regional. Less pressure on the team away from home with nothing to lose.

 

[aparch]

Re: The 2015 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread

I'm downright impressed there are six NCHC schools in contention for the tourney. I said when they formed that the math will sort them out, and I stand by that. The math of the PWR will sort them out, but golly if it isn't amazing to see that. They really struck gold in scheduling non-conf opponents to build up their rankings.

 

[mookie1995]

Re: The 2015 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread

For attendance reasons, it is reasonable to assume that BC would draw more fannies in the seats at Providence than Providence College would. PC has trouble filling their 3000 seat on campus arena.

But from a BC fan perspective, I'll take the South Bend Regional. Less pressure on the team away from home with nothing to lose.

oh stop it!!! you see 'miami' and get giddy

 

[FiveHole12]

Re: The 2015 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread

oh stop it!!! you see 'miami' and get giddy

Haha... so observant.

A week or two ago bracketology had Miami in Providence with BC AND BU. Miami fans must have felt like jumping off a bridge.

 

[HarleyMC]

Re: The 2015 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread

This season the selection committee will have attendance issues high on their agenda. The Regionals have been poorly attended since 2006. The NCAA selection committee is looking at options which is why only 2015 and 2016 hosts were awarded in the last round. Perhaps a shakeup is down the road in the near future and rightly so...empty seats typically abound every season in the Regionals.

For all that the ideal of a truly neutral-site tournament may hold, the tournament has been straddling the home-ice line for years, giving guaranteed close-to-home games to host schools if they make the field of 16, regardless of seed. So instead of an unfair home-ice advantage, why not reward higher seeds with home games in the first round, as was the case before 1992?

Article.

 

[Numbers]

Re: The 2015 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread

For attendance reasons, it is reasonable to assume that BC would draw more fannies in the seats at Providence than Providence College would. PC has trouble filling their 3000 seat on campus arena.

But from a BC fan perspective, I'll take the South Bend Regional. Less pressure on the team away from home with nothing to lose.

This is interesting. It means that something like this could work:

Manchester (Mankato is flying anyway): 1-Mankato v 14-SCSU, 7-BU v 10-QU
Fargo: 2-NoDak v 16-RoMo, 6-Denver v 11-Minnesota
Providence: 3-UMD v 14-Yale, 8-Omaha v 9-BC
SouthBend: 4-Miami (atmosphere, not tickets) v 13-BGSU, 5-MTU v 12-ProvColl

Which is actually a pretty good bracket. Mankato and SCSU have to play each other, and have to fly. After that, there are only 5 or 6 flights depending on how far for MTU (although without checking, I am sure that is a flight.) And the bracket intergrity is pretty good.

Although I must admit I think this is a futile exercise. There are 6 NCHC teams in the top 15 right now. This week they all play each other. Next week 4 play each other. The next week 4 play each other again. It seems on the surface that it is highly likely someone falls out of the field, and that one of the 3 NCHC #1s falls to the 2 band. In which case the gymnastics for the committee become less strenuous.

 

[purpleinnebraska]

Re: The 2015 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread

This is interesting. It means that something like this could work:

Manchester (Mankato is flying anyway): 1-Mankato v 14-SCSU, 7-BU v 10-QU
Fargo: 2-NoDak v 16-RoMo, 6-Denver v 11-Minnesota
Providence: 3-UMD v 14-Yale, 8-Omaha v 9-BC
SouthBend: 4-Miami (atmosphere, not tickets) v 13-BGSU, 5-MTU v 12-ProvColl

Which is actually a pretty good bracket. Mankato and SCSU have to play each other, and have to fly. After that, there are only 5 or 6 flights depending on how far for MTU (although without checking, I am sure that is a flight.) And the bracket intergrity is pretty good.

Although I must admit I think this is a futile exercise. There are 6 NCHC teams in the top 15 right now. This week they all play each other. Next week 4 play each other. The next week 4 play each other again. It seems on the surface that it is highly likely someone falls out of the field, and that one of the 3 NCHC #1s falls to the 2 band. In which case the gymnastics for the committee become less strenuous.

While I like any scenario where we finish #1, in yours we fly halfway across the country, to play NOT the #16 seed, but to instead play a team that's a 2 hour drive away from us? Sounds like a great deal!

 

[mookie1995]

Re: The 2015 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread

While I like any scenario where we finish #1, in yours we fly halfway across the country, to play NOT the #16 seed, but to instead play a team that's a 2 hour drive away from us? Sounds like a great deal!

all y'all would love manchvegas. make you kiss the ground once y'all return home

 

[Numbers]

Re: The 2015 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread

While I like any scenario where we finish #1, in yours we fly halfway across the country, to play NOT the #16 seed, but to instead play a team that's a 2 hour drive away from us? Sounds like a great deal!

I understand your complaint, so let me explain.... In the current PWR, Mankato is required to play St Cloud. So the matchup cannot change. As for the venue, you can't play at the closest place, which is Fargo. So, you either fly to SouthBend to play SCSU, or you fly halfway across the country. Does it really matter at that point?

If it does, then...
SouthBend: 1-Mankato v 14-SCSU, 8-Omaha v 9-BC
Fargo - As above
Providence: 3-UMD v 15-Yale, 7-BU v 12-PC
Manchester: 4-Miami v 13-BSGU, 5-MTU v 10-QU

 

[Shirtless Guy]

Re: The 2015 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread

I understand your complaint, so let me explain.... In the current PWR, Mankato is required to play St Cloud. So the matchup cannot change. As for the venue, you can't play at the closest place, which is Fargo. So, you either fly to SouthBend to play SCSU, or you fly halfway across the country. Does it really matter at that point?

If it does, then...
SouthBend: 1-Mankato v 14-SCSU, 8-Omaha v 9-BC
Fargo - As above
Providence: 3-UMD v 15-Yale, 7-BU v 12-PC
Manchester: 4-Miami v 13-BSGU, 5-MTU v 10-QU

Protecting #1 overall seed is more important than avoiding inter conference matchups when the conference in question has SIX teams. MSU should get Bob Mo if this PWR were to hold.

 

[stuckinwi]

Re: The 2015 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread

I understand your complaint, so let me explain.... In the current PWR, Mankato is required to play St Cloud. So the matchup cannot change. As for the venue, you can't play at the closest place, which is Fargo. So, you either fly to SouthBend to play SCSU, or you fly halfway across the country. Does it really matter at that point?

If it does, then...
SouthBend: 1-Mankato v 14-SCSU, 8-Omaha v 9-BC
Fargo - As above
Providence: 3-UMD v 15-Yale, 7-BU v 12-PC
Manchester: 4-Miami v 13-BSGU, 5-MTU v 10-QU

Any scenario that takes the number 16 seed away from the 1 is broken if you ask me. Trading an NCHC team for the autobid from AHA is insane and an insult to the whoever has won the number slot.

 

[Numbers]

Protecting #1 overall seed is more important than avoiding inter conference matchups when the conference in question has SIX teams. MSU should get Bob Mo if this PWR were to hold.

My opinion is the same as yours. However, I believe that the way the committee had implemented their rules suggests that they would arrange for SCSU to play Mankato, even though they would not HAVE to.

 

[Fighting Sioux 23]

My opinion is the same as yours. However, I believe that the way the committee had implemented their rules suggests that they would arrange for SCSU to play Mankato, even though they would not HAVE to.

That is what happened in 2003. Cornell was the #1 overall seed and had to play Mankato. That should mean that the committee would do the same thing this year if the current pairwise rankings hold. It sucks for Mankato but I think it is likely to happen given the current situation.

 

[bigblue_dl]

Re: The 2015 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread

Protecting #1 overall seed is more important than avoiding inter conference matchups when the conference in question has SIX teams. MSU should get Bob Mo if this PWR were to hold.

Yep, going east is explainable by "a flight is a flight" but the overall #1 must be protected.

It won't matter in a week, UND will be 1 after Tech sweeps Mankato.

 

[HuskyNation]

After this evening's games, we have the following rankings:
1. Minnesota State (AQ)
2. North Dakota (AQ)
3. Minnesota Duluth
4. Miami
5. Michigan Tech
6. Denver
7. Boston University (AQ)
8. Nebraska Omaha
9. Boston College
10. Quinnipiac (AQ)
11. Minnesota (AQ)
12. Providence
13. Bowling Green
14. St. Cloud State
15. Yale
16. Robert Morris (AQ)

Our straight up brackets go as follows:

South Bend:
1. Minnesota State vs. 16. Robert Morris
8. Nebraska Omaha vs. 9. Boston College

Fargo:
2. North Dakota vs. 15. Yale
7. Boston University vs. 10. Quinnipiac

Manchester:
3. Minnesota Duluth vs. 14. St. Cloud State
6. Denver vs. 11. Minnesota

Providence:
4. Miami vs. 13. Bowling Green
5. Michigan Tech vs. 12. Providence

What a mess. We have an intra-conference matchup, and a ton of "Western" teams out East and a bunch of eastern teams out West. This bracket really would put the committee in a bind, but we would find out a lot about what really is important. My guess is that since the committee can avoid the intra-conference matchup that they do (also, see 2003 for this proposition when top-seeded Cornell got the short straw and had to take on Mankato in the first round). After that, I think the committee will make maneuvers using flights as an excuse and get something like this...

Manchester: (BI = 32)
1. Minnesota State vs. 14. St. Cloud State
7. Boston University vs. 10. Quinnipiac

Fargo: (BI = 37)
2. North Dakota vs. 16. Robert Morris
8. Nebraska Omaha vs. 11. Minnesota

Providence: (BI = 36)
3. Minnesota Duluth vs. 15. Yale
6. Denver vs. 12. Providence

South Bend: (BI = 31)
4. Miami vs. 13. Bowling Green
5. Michigan Tech vs. 9. Boston College

Committee saves flights for Miami, Boston University, Nebraska Omaha, Quinnipiac, Minnesota, Bowling Green, and Yale. BC will complain about getting sent West, and Tech should complain about being the top-seeded #2 playing the top-seeded #3. Bracket integrity sucks, but I'm not sure the NCAA could give up saving 7 flights. Ultimately, my guess is the NCAA is praying that the actual Pairwise ranking that counts looks significantly different than this one (and it likely will).

If the committee is okay with an intra-conference matchup, an alternate bracket would see St. Cloud swapping with Yale (saves 2 flights) and then switching the DU-MN matchup with the BU-QU matchup (saving 3 flights). That at least keeps SOME measure of bracket integrity and also saves 5 flights. That bracket would look like:

South Bend: (BI = 34)
1. Minnesota State vs. 16. Robert Morris
8. Nebraska Omaha vs. 9. Boston College

Fargo: (BI = 33)
2. North Dakota vs. 14. St. Cloud State
6. Denver vs. 11. Minnesota

Manchester: (BI = 35)
3. Minnesota Duluth vs. 15. Yale
7. Boston University vs. 10. Quinnipiac

Providence: (BI = 34)
4. Miami vs. 13. Bowling Green
5. Michigan Tech vs. 12. Providence

This bracket is much more palatable from a bracket integrity standpoint. What would the committee do? My hunch would be to avoid the intra-conference matchups...and hope and pray that the actual pairwise doesn't come out anything close to this.

Your last bracket is exactly what I have, mainly because if you avoid the intra-conference match ups, the #1 overall seed gets severely and unjustly punished.

 

[Priceless]

Re: The 2015 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread

2/23/15 post-Beanpot Pairwise:

1 Minnesota State
2 North Dakota
3 Minnesota-Duluth
4 Miami
5 Michigan Tech
6 Boston University
7 Denver
8 Nebraska-Omaha
9 Boston College
10 Minnesota
11t Quinnipiac
11t Providence
13 Bowling Green
14 St. Cloud State
15 Yale
---
16 Massachusetts-Lowell
17t Vermont
17t Harvard
19 Michigan
20 St. Lawrence
21t Colgate
21t Northeastern
23 Robert Morris
24 Western Michigan
25t Bemidji State
25t Penn State
27 Dartmouth
28 Alaska
29t Northern Michigan
29t Merrimack
31 Cornell
32 Notre Dame
33t Michigan State
33t Union
35 New Hampshire
36 Bentley
37 Ferris State
38 Clarkson
39 Canisius
40t Mercyhurst
40t Connecticut
40t Maine
43 Ohio State
44 Massachusetts
45 RIT
46 Brown
47 Alabama-Huntsville
48 Rensselaer
49 Holy Cross
50 Alaska-Anchorage
51 Air Force
52 Sacred Heart
53 Colorado College
54 Lake Superior
55 Wisconsin
56 Princeton
57 Army
58 American International
59 Niagara

Bracketology:

Fargo
#2 North Dakota vs Robert Morris
Denver vs Minnesota

Providence
#3 Duluth vs Yale
Boston U vs Quinnipiac

South Bend
#4 Miami vs Bowling Green
Michigan Tech vs Providence

Manchester
#1 Mankato vs St Cloud
Omaha vs Boston C

While I like any scenario where we finish #1, in yours we fly halfway across the country, to play NOT the #16 seed, but to instead play a team that's a 2 hour drive away from us? Sounds like a great deal!

A flight is a flight. Once they get on a plane, it doesn't matter where it lands.

Or, I am not sure the rules, but google says Omaha is 424 miles by car to Fargo. Do they go by driving distance or a straight line? If by straight line, then Omaha could substitute for Minnesota also.

400 miles by road. Omaha is flying

 

[mookie1995]

Re: The 2015 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread

Fargo
#2 North Dakota vs Robert Morris
Denver vs Minnesota

Providence
#3 Duluth vs Yale
Boston U vs Quinnipiac

South Bend
#4 Miami vs Bowling Green
Michigan Tech vs Providence

Manchester
#1 Mankato vs St Cloud
Omaha vs Boston C

nice.
mookie is ready for another bu-bc national championship game

 

[Bonin21]

Re: The 2015 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread

any scenario that takes the number 16 seed away from the 1 is broken if you ask me.

qft

 

[Numbers]

Re: The 2015 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread

Given the current RPI, I think it would be safe to say that:

NoDak and Mankato will end 1/2.
Duluth has a large edge for #3, and will therefore likely end up with a #1 seed.

The other #1 seed is a huge fight between Miami, BU, Denver and Omaha.

BC's RPI seems strong enough that, barring strange results the next 2 weeks, they should be in.

Everyone else better win, and no other seedings are really clear. The #2 band could fall to #3s, and the 3s could move either up to 2s, or even fall out.

Given travel concerns, it appears also that we can say that:
Since Duluth and NoDak appear to be #1s, if Minnesota qualifies, they will go to Fargo. (Only exception being if they are in the same seed band as SCSU, and SCSU is the 'normal' seed for the Fargo region.)

Miami would appear to be headed for South Bend, as well as Bowling Green if they qualify.

Comments from others?