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The 2015 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread

  • Thread starter Thread starter Priceless
  • Start date Start date
Re: The 2015 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread

Riz said:
I don't think the committee is going to risk an "all NCHC frozen four" like the WCHA had in 2005. Wouldn't surprise me at all if they slam three NCHC teams into one regional and leave one without an NCHC team. Something to think about.
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The fear of the all-(insert conference here) Frozen Four was way overblown. I don't think the NCAA cares one way or another.
 
Re: The 2015 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread

Riz said:
I don't think the committee is going to risk an "all NCHC frozen four" like the WCHA had in 2005. Wouldn't surprise me at all if they slam three NCHC teams into one regional and leave one without an NCHC team. Something to think about.
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Some discourse about this has started in the NCHC thread as well.
 
Re: The 2015 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread

HarleyMC said:
Shirtless, the problems in this probability model are causal and systemic and has nothing to do with specific conferences. I'm absolutely serious here, if I were a coach of any team with 20+ wins and sitting tonight at PWR 16-25, I'd be tempted to kick the NCAA committee in the *** for what this statistically invalid system has done to rob my team out of an NCAA berth. It's THAT bad.
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Oh I compeltely agree, the RPI is horribly flawed, the sample sizes are awful, the emphasis on about 12% of games...the list goes on. What the hell does the current RPI even represent with it being bastardized to limit negative impact victories.
 
Priceless said:
Sorry, but attendance matters. Technically, RIT could stay in Providence (386 miles) but the Providence regional would rival Joe Louis Arena last night for empty seats.
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If attendance is what matters, then the North Dakota AD is right - change it to home games for the top seeds. Otherwise, leave the brackets alone
 
Re: The 2015 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread

Priceless said:
The fear of the all-(insert conference here) Frozen Four was way overblown. I don't think the NCAA cares one way or another.
Click to expand...

I am inclined to agree with this.

Why would they give a rat's petunia about this? What is the possible motivation to care?
 
Re: The 2015 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread

Shirtless Guy said:
Oh I compeltely agree, the RPI is horribly flawed, the sample sizes are awful, the emphasis on about 12% of games...the list goes on. What the hell does the current RPI even represent with it being bastardized to limit negative impact victories.
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There's also some baby and bathwater issues. And I respect the ever looming issue that when pressured the NCAA would likely toss the baby with the bathwater.
 
Re: The 2015 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread

Priceless said:
The fear of the all-(insert conference here) Frozen Four was way overblown. I don't think the NCAA cares one way or another.
Click to expand...

I agree Priceless that the committee has no interest in thinking about this at all. They will seed as they always do--seeking to avoid intra-conference match-ups in the first round. End of story.
 
Re: The 2015 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread

Red Cows said:
I am inclined to agree with this.

Why would they give a rat's petunia about this? What is the possible motivation to care?
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Imagine 4 western teams in an eastern F4. Doesn't bode well for TV viewers OR attendance (I am ignoring tickets sold, b/c they always sell). No attendance = no concessions = less money made (although not sure if NCAA gets a cut of those profits)
 
Re: The 2015 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread

Brenthoven said:
Imagine 4 western teams in an eastern F4. Doesn't bode well for TV viewers OR attendance (I am ignoring tickets sold, b/c they always sell). No attendance = no concessions = less money made (although not sure if NCAA gets a cut of those profits)
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People are still going to go. It's Boston, not Columbus. The secondary market will take a hit, but the secondary market always takes a hit.
 
Re: The 2015 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread

Priceless said:
I haven't seen the scenario, but they are like 97% if they lose tomorrow. It's very hard to get them out.
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Per GPL:


Any of the following puts us in
Gopher win
RIT win
Harvard win
Boston win
St. Cloud win

Atlantic Hockey
Semifinal #2: RIT defeats Canisius
Championship game: Mercyhurst defeats RIT
Big Ten
Championship game: Michigan defeats Minnesota
ECAC
Championship game: Colgate defeats Harvard
Hockey East
Championship game: Massachusetts-Lowell defeats Boston University
NCHC
Semifinal #2: Miami defeats Denver
Consolation game: North Dakota defeats Denver
Championship game: Miami defeats St. Cloud State
WCHA
Championship game: Minnesota State defeats Michigan Tech
 
Re: The 2015 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread

Patman said:
I don't think you're going to get scheduling down a sampling design in this world.

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We (err, JimDahl) has the means to do a more proper investigation. Maybe its time for a sensitivity analysis of sorts. I'd take the schedule up to the NCAAs as given and then knock out and re-impute a fraction of the observations randomly and see how sensitive it is. How much does it change under a model that passes a smell test.

I've given up on calculating PWR for the time being and I don't have the drive to do it.

That being said, the "power" in any sports ranking method isn't particularly high and assessing a ranked score is not the most elegant task. A sample size of 40 would make any pollster unhappy.

---

If an undergrad studied the PWR under its various conditions in a rigorous manner, its probably publishable.
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"in this world"? It's done all the time, pal. Think casuality for a change. Academically, this is a statistical nightmare and violates some of the most basic assumptions necessary to establish internal validity. If an undergrad....its probably publishable? I'm not talking at all about the model. I conduct a research study using a probability model involving gender, I run the procedures but I treat the sample without any discrimination. I challenge you to find ONE peer reviewed research journal that will publish something like this. You'll end up with a pile of rejection letters. With this system forget about statistical power because as it stands it's non-parametric.
 
Re: The 2015 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread

Brenthoven said:
Imagine 4 western teams in an eastern F4. Doesn't bode well for TV viewers OR attendance (I am ignoring tickets sold, b/c they always sell). No attendance = no concessions = less money made (although not sure if NCAA gets a cut of those profits)
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Actually, I'd LIKE to be imaging it.

Because, then, perhaps, the NCAA might take a serious look at to whom/where they are awarding regionals and Frozen Fours to.

For example, the Frozen Four should never ever be in a place like Tampa, that is completely and totally removed from the world of college hockey, something that there is no foreseeable change to on the horizon. That was just plain stupid, IMHO.
 
Re: The 2015 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread

Red Cows said:
Actually, I'd LIKE to be imaging it.

Because, then, perhaps, the NCAA might take a serious look at to whom/where they are awarding regionals and Frozen Fours to.

For example, the Frozen Four should never ever be in a place like Tampa, that is completely and totally removed from the world of college hockey, something that there is no foreseeable change to on the horizon. That was just plain stupid, IMHO.
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I agree. Until recent life events happened in the past year or two, I was planning on Boston this year. No interest in TB. Sorta interested in CHI. Obviously I'll be in St Paul. Would love to have DEN host another one.
 
Red Cows said:
Actually, I'd LIKE to be imaging it.

Because, then, perhaps, the NCAA might take a serious look at to whom/where they are awarding regionals and Frozen Fours to.

For example, the Frozen Four should never ever be in a place like Tampa, that is completely and totally removed from the world of college hockey, something that there is no foreseeable change to on the horizon. That was just plain stupid, IMHO.
Click to expand...
The bidding process for a regional is messed up and NEEDS to be fixed ASAP. Over the past 10 years I believe my team has had to play in the HOME state of their opponent at least FOUR times! All of the others the opponents team was close to the location. I can think of one time in the history of the tournament in which DENVER was closer than their opponents in a regional, and that was in Colorado Springs in 2004. I'm not saying host a regional in Seattle or California, but come on playing every game on the road when it's supposed to be a "neutral" site is ridiculous!
 
Re: The 2015 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread

Red Cows said:
Actually, I'd LIKE to be imaging it.

Because, then, perhaps, the NCAA might take a serious look at to whom/where they are awarding regionals and Frozen Fours to.

For example, the Frozen Four should never ever be in a place like Tampa, that is completely and totally removed from the world of college hockey, something that there is no foreseeable change to on the horizon. That was just plain stupid, IMHO.
Click to expand...

But, the frozen four is always well attended. I get what your are saying if you are talking about regionals; but, the frozen four? Furthermore, frankly, I wouldn't be surprised to see a Florida school startup a program (especially with the recent ASU announcement & if any more schools follow). I just moved down to Tampa area from Wisconisn; and they have nearly as many high school programs,& more importantly, broadcast a high school hockey game every friday night on the local sports cable channel (ahead of bouncy ball). From what I hear, they actually had good promo & local deals for the frozen four last time it was in Tamps. Granted, I am biased; but, I think Tampa is a good frozen four destination (though I'm not sure you can really go wrong with that).

You are right that the regionals are a serious problem. The Frozen fours are not/will not change/ prove anything (IMO).
 
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