The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

[Koho]

Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

And, it makes a few hockey games seem not very important.

Been to the beaches of Normandy and have seen concentration camps. Been in Eastern Block countries and saw the Wall before it fell. All very somber. But I will still never say 'hockey games aren't very important!'

 

[SJHovey]

Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

North Dakota - beat Miami, then we will see.

I can get North Dakota in with a loss to Miami, and a win in the consolation game so long as either Mankato or Michigan lose their first game.

 

[Fighting Sioux 23]

Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

I can get North Dakota in with a loss to Miami, and a win in the consolation game so long as either Mankato or Michigan lose their first game.

Same with Colgate. The Sioux would also need no upset tournament winners in the B1G, Hockey East, WCHA, & ECAC.

It also looks like the same scenario applies if North Dakota beats Miami and loses to Denver/Western for the NCHC title. FWIW, I've only tried out a couple dozen scenarios.

 

[SJHovey]

Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

Same with Colgate. The Sioux would also need no upset tournament winners in the B1G, Hockey East, WCHA, & ECAC.

It also looks like the same scenario applies if North Dakota beats Miami and loses to Denver/Western for the NCHC title. FWIW, I've only tried out a couple dozen scenarios.

That's good to know about Colgate. I like their chances to lose better than Michigan or Mankato.

 

[CollegeHockeyRinkReport]

Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

My latest take on the Pairwise and Bracketology:

http://www.sbncollegehockey.com/201...y-frozen-four-bc-minnesota-union-ferris-state

 

[Numbers]

Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

Same with Colgate. The Sioux would also need no upset tournament winners in the B1G, Hockey East, WCHA, & ECAC.

It also looks like the same scenario applies if North Dakota beats Miami and loses to Denver/Western for the NCHC title. FWIW, I've only tried out a couple dozen scenarios.

Sorry. I couldn't get the Colgate scenario to work. I put Michigan to lose to Wisconsin after beating PennState. Mankato to lose to Ferris after beating Bowling Green. And, then I put Colgate to lose to Quinn. Comes out with UND 14th, and out due to WMU and the AHA Champ being in the field. If you make BOTH Cornell and Colgate lose to Union and Quinn, then, yes, UND makes it as the last at large team in.

 

[Fighting Sioux 23]

Sorry. I couldn't get the Colgate scenario to work. I put Michigan to lose to Wisconsin after beating PennState. Mankato to lose to Ferris after beating Bowling Green. And, then I put Colgate to lose to Quinn. Comes out with UND 14th, and out due to WMU and the AHA Champ being in the field. If you make BOTH Cornell and Colgate lose to Union and Quinn, then, yes, UND makes it as the last at large team in.

That's why I qualified my statement about no upset tournament winners in the other 4 conferences, and the fact that I had only tried out a few scenarios. Looks like for the Sioux to make it in with just 1 win (either on Friday or Saturday) they need:


1) Penn State over Michigan;
2) Bowling Green over Mankato; OR
3) QU vs Union in ECAC title game.

PLUS

A)Minny or Wisconsin win the B1G (or Michigan in scenario 2 or 3)
B) Ferris State win WCHA (or Mankato in scenarios 1 and 3)
C) Anyone but UNH to win Hockey East; AND
D) Either QU OR Union to win on Friday

Or, Sioux could just win both games and not have to worry about any of this

EDIT:

Also, for each additional scenario from 1-3 that happens, you can eliminate one of the A-D Pluses. For example, If Penn State beats Michigan, and goes on to win the B1G (eliminating Plus A), but Mankato falls to Bowling Green (and Pluses B-D remain) then North Dakota still advances with 1 win. If all 3 Scenarios happen (i.e. 1-3 all happen), then only one of the A-C pluses need to happen (because if Scenario 3 happens, Plus D will have already happened). For example, If Penn State beats Michigan, Bowling Green beats Mankato, and QU and Union advance to the ECAC Title game, then all the Sioux need are either a New Hampshire loss (either Friday or Saturday), Ferris State winning the WCHA, OR Minnesota or Wisconsin winning the B1G ten (obviously still coupled with a Sioux win on EITHER Friday or Saturday).

I was not a big fan of the Third Place game addition to the NCHC (I'm still not), but it does look like it gives the Sioux another path to the NCAA Tournament. Without the consolation game, the Sioux would be almost certainly out with a loss on Friday.

 

[SJHovey]

Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

That's why I qualified my statement about no upset tournament winners in the other 4 conferences, and the fact that I had only tried out a few scenarios. Looks like for the Sioux to make it in with just 1 win (either on Friday or Saturday) they need:


1) Penn State over Michigan;
2) Bowling Green over Mankato; OR
3) QU vs Union in ECAC title game.

PLUS

A)Minny or Wisconsin win the B1G (or Michigan in scenario 2 or 3)
B) Ferris State win WCHA (or Mankato in scenarios 1 and 3)
C) Anyone but UNH to win Hockey East; AND
D) Either QU OR Union to win on Friday

Or, Sioux could just win both games and not have to worry about any of this

EDIT:

Also, for each additional scenario from 1-3 that happens, you can eliminate one of the A-D Pluses. For example, If Penn State beats Michigan, and goes on to win the B1G (eliminating Plus A), but Mankato falls to Bowling Green (and Pluses B-D remain) then North Dakota still advances with 1 win. If all 3 Scenarios happen (i.e. 1-3 all happen), then only one of the A-C pluses need to happen (because if Scenario 3 happens, Plus D will have already happened). For example, If Penn State beats Michigan, Bowling Green beats Mankato, and QU and Union advance to the ECAC Title game, then all the Sioux need are either a New Hampshire loss (either Friday or Saturday), Ferris State winning the WCHA, OR Minnesota or Wisconsin winning the B1G ten (obviously still coupled with a Sioux win on EITHER Friday or Saturday).

I was not a big fan of the Third Place game addition to the NCHC (I'm still not), but it does look like it gives the Sioux another path to the NCAA Tournament. Without the consolation game, the Sioux would be almost certainly out with a loss on Friday.

When I was playing around with it last night I think there was also a way for UND to sneak in with a loss to Miami and a TIE with Denver. As I recall, it involved either a Michigan or Mankato loss in their first game.

 

[Priceless]

Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

I'm not here. I'm still asleep.

In:
Minnesota (#1 overall, 1 seed in St Paul)
Boston College (1 seed in Worcester)
Union (1 seed in Bridgeport)
Ferris State
Wisconsin
Quinnipiac
Lowell
Notre Dame
Providence
St Cloud

Season done but still in the race for at-large:
Vermont
Northeastern

Still alive for at-large
Michigan
Mankato
North Dakota
Colgate
Cornell

Everyone else needs an autobid or their season is over.

Zzzzzz

 

[Priceless]

Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

Still not here, but this is a link to the predictor.

 

[Steve_MN]

Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

That's why I qualified my statement about no upset tournament winners in the other 4 conferences, and the fact that I had only tried out a few scenarios. Looks like for the Sioux to make it in with just 1 win (either on Friday or Saturday) they need:


1) Penn State over Michigan;
2) Bowling Green over Mankato; OR
3) QU vs Union in ECAC title game.

PLUS

A)Minny or Wisconsin win the B1G (or Michigan in scenario 2 or 3)
B) Ferris State win WCHA (or Mankato in scenarios 1 and 3)
C) Anyone but UNH to win Hockey East; AND
D) Either QU OR Union to win on Friday

Or, Sioux could just win both games and not have to worry about any of this

EDIT:

Also, for each additional scenario from 1-3 that happens, you can eliminate one of the A-D Pluses. For example, If Penn State beats Michigan, and goes on to win the B1G (eliminating Plus A), but Mankato falls to Bowling Green (and Pluses B-D remain) then North Dakota still advances with 1 win. If all 3 Scenarios happen (i.e. 1-3 all happen), then only one of the A-C pluses need to happen (because if Scenario 3 happens, Plus D will have already happened). For example, If Penn State beats Michigan, Bowling Green beats Mankato, and QU and Union advance to the ECAC Title game, then all the Sioux need are either a New Hampshire loss (either Friday or Saturday), Ferris State winning the WCHA, OR Minnesota or Wisconsin winning the B1G ten (obviously still coupled with a Sioux win on EITHER Friday or Saturday).

I was not a big fan of the Third Place game addition to the NCHC (I'm still not), but it does look like it gives the Sioux another path to the NCAA Tournament. Without the consolation game, the Sioux would be almost certainly out with a loss on Friday.

Not sure why you're including that first part. I fairly easily found NoDak in without a single one of those first three. From the top down in USCHO's predictor:

Robert Morris/Mercyhurst/Mercyhurst
Michigan/MSU/Winsconsin/MN/MN (whether MN or Wisco wins the championship is irrelevant here)
Colgate/Cornell/Cornell
UNH/Notre Dame/Notre Dame (you really don't want UNH to win here)
WMU/NoDak/WMU (Denver winning consolation)
Mankato/Ferris/ Either

This puts NoDak at a tie for 13 and the last team in. If you lose the NCHC championship, you really want it to be to WMU, NOT Denver.

 

[The Exiled One]

Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

Roughly, I think the top 10 are in. The only threat is to StCloud if Michigan loses the final to OSU/MSU and there are upsets everywhere.

I couldn't work them out going through about 20 different unfavorable scenarios. I think it's safe to say they're safely in.

 

[UnionHockeyManiac]

Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

I'm not here. I'm still asleep.

In:
Minnesota (#1 overall, 1 seed in St Paul)
Boston College (1 seed in Worcester)
Union (1 seed in Bridgeport)

There are a lot of scenarios where QU can end up tied with Union at #3 in the PWR. Union would still have a better RPI though and would thus win the tie-breaker. Do you think the committee would consider putting Quinnipiac in Bridgeport for attendance reasons? Bridgeport is only 20 miles down the road from Quinnipiac and 150 miles from Union.

 

[JimDahl]

Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

I'm still doing a little quality control on my tournament probabilities, but thought I'd share my first pass at PWR possibilities and crowd source some quality control.

Anyone find any PWR outcomes outside these ranges (for teams that can make the tournament at large):
#1 Minnesota 1
#2 BC 2-3
#3 Union 2-3
#4 Ferris State 4-8
#5 Wisconsin 4-9
#6 QU 4-10
#7 Mass.-Lowell 4-10
#8 Notre Dame 4-10
#9 Providence 4-15
#10 St Cloud 8-13
#11 Michigan 6-18
#12 Mankato 9-20
#13 North Dakota 10-20
#14 Vermont 10-16
#15 Colgate 9-19
#16 Cornell 9-19
#17 New Hampshire 12-22 (needs conference tournament)
#18 Northeastern 12-19

 

[Steve_MN]

Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

I'm still doing a little quality control on my tournament probabilities, but thought I'd share my first pass at PWR possibilities and crowd source some quality control.

Anyone find any PWR outcomes outside these ranges (for teams that can make the tournament at large):
#1 Minnesota 1
#2 BC 2-3
#3 Union 2-3
#4 Ferris State 4-8
#5 Wisconsin 4-9
#6 QU 4-10
#7 Mass.-Lowell 4-10
#8 Notre Dame 4-10
#9 Providence 4-15
#10 St Cloud 8-13
#11 Michigan 6-18
#12 Mankato 9-20
#13 North Dakota 10-20
#14 Vermont 10-16
#15 Colgate 9-19
#16 Cornell 9-19
#17 New Hampshire 12-22 (needs conference tournament)
#18 Northeastern 12-19

I know I haven't seen anything outside those ranges. In the scenarios I've run, I haven't seen BC anything other than 2, and Union at 3 (sometimes tied for 3rd, but winning the RPI tiebreaker) I assume for the 4-x that you have listed are including teams that come up tied for 3rd with Union but lose the RPI?

 

[JimDahl]

Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

I assume for the 4-x that you have listed are including teams that come up tied for 3rd with Union but lose the RPI?

Yep, it's been a long time since anyone asserted that ties weren't broken with RPI, so I just make it part of the formula these days.

 

[Steve_MN]

Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

Yep, it's been a long time since anyone asserted that ties weren't broken with RPI, so I just make it part of the formula these days.

Certainly wasn't disagreeing, but wanted to make sure that's what you meant.

Do you have an example of Union sliding into the #2 seed and BC dropping to 3?

 

[ihlatrebon]

Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

I couldn't work them out going through about 20 different unfavorable scenarios. I think it's safe to say they're safely in.

St Cloud is out in the following scenario:


Mercyhurst defeats Robert Morris
Ohio State defeats Michigan
Cornell defeats Quinnipiac
New Hampshire defeats Notre Dame
Denver defeats North Dakota (3rd place game)
Western Michigan defeats Miami
Minnesota State defeats Alaska-Anchorage

 

[unh1982]

Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

St Cloud is out in the following scenario:


Mercyhurst defeats Robert Morris
Ohio State defeats Michigan
Cornell defeats Quinnipiac
New Hampshire defeats Notre Dame
Denver defeats North Dakota (3rd place game)
Western Michigan defeats Miami
Minnesota State defeats Alaska-Anchorage

" so you saying theirs a chance "

 

[FiveHole12]

Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

St Cloud is out in the following scenario:


Mercyhurst defeats Robert Morris
Ohio State defeats Michigan
Cornell defeats Quinnipiac
New Hampshire defeats Notre Dame
Denver defeats North Dakota (3rd place game)
Western Michigan defeats Miami
Minnesota State defeats Alaska-Anchorage

No they're not. They wind up tied 11th PWR in that scenario.