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The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

  • Thread starter Thread starter Priceless
  • Start date Start date
Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

Thanks. I figured that either USCHO or CHN had just eliminated the TUC piece and didn't get the QWB added back in, but I wasn't sure how to figure out which had it messed up.
 
Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

Numbers said:
Unless I am missing something,10 of the top 15 are from the east, with only Minnesota, Ferris, St Cloud, Michigan, Wisconsin from the Big 10, NCHC, or WCHA. That seems like lots of eastern power, especially compared to past years.
Click to expand...
Minnesota State makes 6, but they'd be bumped by the AHA AQ
 
Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

Priceless said:
The Sioux Sports and Reilly Hamilton pairwise are the same. The USCHO pairwise also appears to use that formula. CHN is using the formula from last year I believe, and has not accounted for the changes.
Click to expand...

I think CHN updated their Pairwise, and have partially implemented the RPI changes, or something along those lines.

My table currently has a disagreement with both Jim's and USCHO's calculations; I have Bowling Green at .5266, while both the other have them at .5251. This is because I'm removing one of Bowling Green's three wins over UAH (the home game), while the other sites are removing none of BGSU's wins. Since the home game is worth less, its removal causes Bowling Green's winning percentage to not fall as much as removing the away wins would, balancing things out and resulting in a net positive.

Any thoughts on this scenario from the rules interpreters? Can only one win (presumably a home win) against an opponent be removed, or do all wins have to be removed aggregately?

http://siouxsports.com/hockey/rankings/rpidetails.php?teamid=20
http://pwr.reillyhamilton.com/pwr.php#BowlingGreen
 
Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

Numbers said:
Unless I am missing something,10 of the top 15 are from the east, with only Minnesota, Ferris, St Cloud, Michigan, Wisconsin from the Big 10, NCHC, or WCHA. That seems like lots of eastern power, especially compared to past years.
Click to expand...
1 of the top 4 teams are from the East. Are the 2 and 3 seeds in the tournament usually considered powerful?

The East has a lot of teams getting into the tournament if it started today. But it doesn't start today. I would be flabbergasted if Miami or Notre Dame misses the NCAAs. Not only that but I only consider 25 of the 59 Division I teams "Western" teams (NCHC, WCHA, B1G minus PSU, Air Force, Notre Dame). By those proportions, only 6 or 7 teams from the West should make the tourney.
 
Tipsy McStagger said:
1 of the top 4 teams are from the East. Are the 2 and 3 seeds in the tournament usually considered powerful?

The East has a lot of teams getting into the tournament if it started today. But it doesn't start today. I would be flabbergasted if Miami or Notre Dame misses the NCAAs. Not only that but I only consider 25 of the 59 Division I teams "Western" teams (NCHC, WCHA, B1G minus PSU, Air Force, Notre Dame). By those proportions, only 6 or 7 teams from the West should make the tourney.
Click to expand...

I tend to agree in a way. Right now there are 6 Hockey East teams in the top 15. Conference play starts, they have to play each other, very possible one or Teri could drop out. Likewise, NCHC and WCHA are underrepresented. However, its also true that the eastern conferences did better in non conference play this year.

That's a change from pastyears. It has been more common for the west to do better in non conferences play in past years.
 
Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

The Sioux Sport rankings as of 1/8
1 Minnesota
2 Boston College
3 St Cloud
4 Ferris State
5 Union
6 Quinnipiac
7 Providence
8 Mass.-Lowell
9 Michigan
10 Northeastern
11 Clarkson
12 Cornell
13 New Hampshire
14 Vermont
15 Wisconsin
---
16 MSU-Mankato
17 Notre Dame
18 Maine
19 Miami
20 North Dakota
21 Yale
22 Lake Superior
23 Bowling Green
24 Colgate
25 Ohio State
26 Denver
27 Minnesota-Duluth
28 Brown
29 Nebraska-Omaha
30 St Lawrence
31 Rensselaer
32 Western Michigan
33 Alaska Anchorage
34 Air Force
35 Northern Michigan
36 Alaska
37 Harvard
38 Boston University
39 Michigan Tech
40 Massachusetts
41 Mercyhurst
42 Bemidji State
43 Connecticut
44 Bentley
45 Michigan State
46 Canisius
47 Merrimack
48 RIT
49 Dartmouth
50 Penn State
51 Colorado College
52 Princeton
53 Niagara
54 Holy Cross
55 Robert Morris
56 American Int'l
57 Alabama-Huntsville
58 Sacred Heart
59 Army
 
Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

Numbers said:
I tend to agree in a way. Right now there are 6 Hockey East teams in the top 15. Conference play starts, they have to play each other, very possible one or Teri could drop out. Likewise, NCHC and WCHA are underrepresented. However, its also true that the eastern conferences did better in non conference play this year.

That's a change from pastyears. It has been more common for the west to do better in non conferences play in past years.
Click to expand...

We will know there is a real power change to the East when the committe does two things.

1) Put all the Hockey East teams in only 3 regions so they cannot have an all Hockey East FF.

2) make sure that the East's best teams end up in a "region of death" so they knock themselves out before the FF.
 
Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

Happy said:
We will know there is a real power change to the East when the committe does two things.

1) Put all the ECAC teams in only 3 regions so they cannot have an all ECAC FF.

2) make sure that the East's best teams end up in a "region of death" so they knock themselves out before the FF.
Click to expand...

FYP
a
 
Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

Sounds like the Wambulance is needed up in Minnesota, stat.
 
Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

Happy said:
Why, We are Ranked Number One, and you aren't.
Click to expand...

I don't play college hockey anymore. Haven't you used up all your eligibility yet?
 
Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

Why should college hockey be different than everything else? East - West is defined by which side of the Mississippi you fall on. :p

So... the East is rockin' this thing. :D
 
Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

Aerman said:
Why should college hockey be different than everything else? East - West is defined by which side of the Mississippi you fall on. :p

So... the East is rockin' this thing. :D
Click to expand...
Agreed!
And East should be with 48 of the 59 schools
The West has a tough row to hoe with only 11 schools in the pool
 
Re: The 2014 Pairwise, Bracketology and History Thread`

RHamilton said:
My table currently has a disagreement with both Jim's and USCHO's calculations; I have Bowling Green at .5266, while both the other have them at .5251. This is because I'm removing one of Bowling Green's three wins over UAH (the home game), while the other sites are removing none of BGSU's wins. Since the home game is worth less, its removal causes Bowling Green's winning percentage to not fall as much as removing the away wins would, balancing things out and resulting in a net positive.
...
http://siouxsports.com/hockey/rankings/rpidetails.php?teamid=20
http://pwr.reillyhamilton.com/pwr.php#BowlingGreen
Click to expand...

There's something else going on. I am considering each game separately (because the RPI criteria are weighted differently, I even had to change to not consider all the wins at a single location concurrently because it can produce a different result in rare circumstances).

I'm just not seeing that dropping BG's home win over AH improves their RPI. Most interestingly, we agree on the effect on WP and OOPER, but you calculate OPER going to .5251 whereas I calculate it going to .5179. Mine results in the RPI being .5221 (though slightly lower than the current .5221 in the 5th decimal place), whereas your results in an RPI of .5237.

It does seem to be unique to BG over AH, a matchup with at least a couple unique features -- wins at different locations vs. the opponent under consideration, and the opponent under consideration has only defeated the team in question such that its OPER is 0. I haven't yet figured out why either (or some other factor) would lead to this difference.
 
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