P
Priceless
Guest
First, a little history. Thanks to the Build Your Own Rankings Calculator we now have 11 years of Pairwise data to study. In that time there have been 20 teams that qualified thanks to the autobid and 156 who qualified by being ranked high enough (autobid or not) to make the NCAA tournament. Of the 156 teams, 112 (71.8%) that qualified as of the January 1 PWR would have made the eventual field. For teams ranked in the top 8 that percentage gets better. 38 of the 44 (86%) teams that were ranked 1-4 in the January 1 PWR have made the tournament. 33 of the 44 (75%) of teams ranked 5-8 made it. 27 of the 44 (61%) of teams ranked 9-12 qualified. In 2011 all of the top 12 teams in the January 1 PWR qualified. Ohio State is the only #1 team (2012) to fall all the way out of the tournament. If your team doesn't appear below, take heart. In five of the last seven years teams that were not in the top 25 of the PWR on January 1 earned at-large berths in the tournament. Last year, Wisconsin was ranked #42 in the RPI (unranked by pairwise) and rose to the #14 overall seed. Two years ago Union was ranked #25 and came all the way back to win the ECAC, get a #1 seed and advance to the Frozen Four.
34 teams fell out of the NCAA tournament that were ranked 1-12 in the New Year PWR. Colorado College and Dartmouth have the distinction, not only of falling out of the tournament four times but, being #1 seeds that fell out of the tournament. Last year the Big Green were ranked #4 and finished the season ranked 23.
This year has seen more changes to the pairwise system which have been discussed elsewhere. We may see some odd movement since all 59 teams are now ranked for pairwise purposes, but there is no more "TUC cliff" and the quality win bonus is on a sliding scale now, so hopefully we won't see wild fluctuations come March. I am using the pairwise from Reilly Hamilton as they appear to be the most accurate out there. The same formula was derived (independently) at Sioux Sports so I believe they are correct. Jim Dahl has a lengthy history with the pairwise and I trust his calculations. If you're interested in how the sausage is made, I highly recommend Reilly's site as it goes into great depth on how each calculation is made.
Here is the first official bracketology of the New Year
1 Minnesota
2 St. Cloud State
3 Boston College
4 Ferris State
5 Providence
6 Quinnipiac
7 Union
8 Mass.-Lowell
9 Michigan
10 Cornell
11 Clarkson
12 New Hampshire
13 Northeastern
14 Wisconsin
15 Minnesota State
34 Air Force
---
16 Maine
17 Miami
18 Notre Dame
19 Vermont
20 North Dakota
First we make sure all teams that qualify for an at-large berth have a .500 record or better. They do so we can proceed.
The only host to make the field is Minnesota, so they go to St Paul. The remaaining #1 seeds are placed closest to home. So St Cloud goes to Cincinnati, Boston College to Worcester and Ferris State to Bridgeport.
The #2 seeds are then distributed according to the #1 seeds, in a 1v8 2v7 etc fashion. Providence to Bridgeport, Quinnipiac to Worcester, Union to Cincinnati and Lowell to St Paul, Cornell to Cincinnati, Clarkson to Worcester and New Hampshire to Bridgeport.
The same pattern goes for the #3 seeds: Michigan to St Paul, Cornell to Cincinnati, Clarkson to Worcester and New Hampshire to Bridgeport.
Air Force is the automatic qualifier from Atlantic Hockey, so they are seeded 16 and play in St Paul. Mankato goes to Cincinnati, Wisconsin to Worcester and Northeastern to Bridgeport.
Our bracket:
That will not work as we have three intraconference games in the first round. It can be fixed easily enough be swapping the three seeds within regions: Michigan to Cincinnati and Cornell to St Paul; New Hampshire to Worcester and Clarkson to Bridgeport. That gives us a final bracket of:
The only thing left is attendance concerns. St Paul is all set with the Gophers there, Bridgeport has three eastern teams, as does Worcester. Cincinnati has Michigan. We might be able to bolster attendance by switching Mankato and Wisconsin, but IMO not enough to warrant te change. That remains our final bracket.
About this thread: I have been doing this thread for several years but by no means do I consider myself an expert. Questions, suggestions, corrections all are welcome. As you can see above, bracketology often involves judgement calls and we all have our own opinions. I try to mimic what I think the committee would do, even if I don't personally agree. With that, let the countdown to Selection Sunday begin!
34 teams fell out of the NCAA tournament that were ranked 1-12 in the New Year PWR. Colorado College and Dartmouth have the distinction, not only of falling out of the tournament four times but, being #1 seeds that fell out of the tournament. Last year the Big Green were ranked #4 and finished the season ranked 23.
This year has seen more changes to the pairwise system which have been discussed elsewhere. We may see some odd movement since all 59 teams are now ranked for pairwise purposes, but there is no more "TUC cliff" and the quality win bonus is on a sliding scale now, so hopefully we won't see wild fluctuations come March. I am using the pairwise from Reilly Hamilton as they appear to be the most accurate out there. The same formula was derived (independently) at Sioux Sports so I believe they are correct. Jim Dahl has a lengthy history with the pairwise and I trust his calculations. If you're interested in how the sausage is made, I highly recommend Reilly's site as it goes into great depth on how each calculation is made.
Here is the first official bracketology of the New Year
1 Minnesota
2 St. Cloud State
3 Boston College
4 Ferris State
5 Providence
6 Quinnipiac
7 Union
8 Mass.-Lowell
9 Michigan
10 Cornell
11 Clarkson
12 New Hampshire
13 Northeastern
14 Wisconsin
15 Minnesota State
34 Air Force
---
16 Maine
17 Miami
18 Notre Dame
19 Vermont
20 North Dakota
First we make sure all teams that qualify for an at-large berth have a .500 record or better. They do so we can proceed.
The only host to make the field is Minnesota, so they go to St Paul. The remaaining #1 seeds are placed closest to home. So St Cloud goes to Cincinnati, Boston College to Worcester and Ferris State to Bridgeport.
The #2 seeds are then distributed according to the #1 seeds, in a 1v8 2v7 etc fashion. Providence to Bridgeport, Quinnipiac to Worcester, Union to Cincinnati and Lowell to St Paul, Cornell to Cincinnati, Clarkson to Worcester and New Hampshire to Bridgeport.
The same pattern goes for the #3 seeds: Michigan to St Paul, Cornell to Cincinnati, Clarkson to Worcester and New Hampshire to Bridgeport.
Air Force is the automatic qualifier from Atlantic Hockey, so they are seeded 16 and play in St Paul. Mankato goes to Cincinnati, Wisconsin to Worcester and Northeastern to Bridgeport.
Our bracket:
Code:
[B]Bridgeport (Yale) Worcester (Holy Cross) Cincinnati (Miami) St Paul (Minnesota)[/B]
Ferris State Boston College St Cloud Minnesota
Providence Quinnipiac Union Lowell
New Hampshire Clarkson Cornell Michigan
Northeastern Wisconsin Mankato Air ForceThat will not work as we have three intraconference games in the first round. It can be fixed easily enough be swapping the three seeds within regions: Michigan to Cincinnati and Cornell to St Paul; New Hampshire to Worcester and Clarkson to Bridgeport. That gives us a final bracket of:
Code:
[B]Bridgeport (Yale) Worcester (Holy Cross) Cincinnati (Miami) St Paul (Minnesota)[/B]
Ferris State Boston College St Cloud Minnesota
Providence Quinnipiac Union Lowell
Clarkson New Hampshire Michigan Cornell
Northeastern Wisconsin Mankato Air ForceThe only thing left is attendance concerns. St Paul is all set with the Gophers there, Bridgeport has three eastern teams, as does Worcester. Cincinnati has Michigan. We might be able to bolster attendance by switching Mankato and Wisconsin, but IMO not enough to warrant te change. That remains our final bracket.
About this thread: I have been doing this thread for several years but by no means do I consider myself an expert. Questions, suggestions, corrections all are welcome. As you can see above, bracketology often involves judgement calls and we all have our own opinions. I try to mimic what I think the committee would do, even if I don't personally agree. With that, let the countdown to Selection Sunday begin!
To be honest, my first statement that they should not be counted at all because they are the autobid is my real opinion. They are #34 which is in the lower half and don't represent "power".