The 112th Congress: Debt ceiling edition

[bronconick]

Re: The 112th Congress: Debt ceiling edition

Do they keep a bunch of dead bills from 10 years ago so they can vote up **** at the last second after playing with their dicks for months?

 

[Rover]

Re: The 112th Congress: Debt ceiling edition

That would have to make it passed the Dems, who now have loads of incentives not to deal. Medicare gets cut either way, and if they hold out, defense gets cut instead of social security and the tax cuts expire as they should.

I believe most of Medicare, like 98% of it is off limits in this deal (don't ask me how, that's from some pol) as well as social security and food stamps. Not sure what's left to cut then aside from the military. My guess is 1T of the "savings" that this new deficit commission comes up with will be winding down the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. I have no idea if the tax issue will get addressed or not. Seems there would be a will to do so on the GOP side as they are expiring after the election and win or lose Obama isn't running again.

 

[Bakunin]

Re: The 112th Congress: Debt ceiling edition

Everything I've read has said Medicare and defense are subject to automatic cuts if the panel deadlocks and/or Congress fails to agree to whatever cuts they recommend.

Medicaid, Social Security, and food stamps are the three things that are off-limits.

 

[5mn_Major]

Re: The 112th Congress: Debt ceiling edition

So after all this, why do I feel that we won't end up cutting dollar one from the military budget?

 

[bronconick]

Re: The 112th Congress: Debt ceiling edition

So after all this, why do I feel that we won't end up cutting dollar one from the military budget?

Because even in this situation where they can hold out and get defense cuts or tax increases, you know that the Democrats will find some new entertaining way to implode and give the Republicans everything and take nothing.

 

[ExileOnDaytonStreet]

Re: The 112th Congress: Debt ceiling edition

So after all this, why do I feel that we won't end up cutting dollar one from the military budget?

Inevitability.

 

[dxmnkd316]

Re: The 112th Congress: Debt ceiling edition

So after all this, why do I feel that we won't end up cutting dollar one from the military budget?

 

[Rover]

Re: The 112th Congress: Debt ceiling edition

Funny!

Military cuts are fairly easy to agree upon in that the commission could agree to cut the programs that the Pentagon itself doesn't want. Seems like a "Duh" moment, but its been harder to accomplish than one would think. Anyway, much like the base closings with a straight up or down vote this gets a bit more possible.

Basically the country needs another 5T in deficit closure over the next 10 years above the 1T that has been agreed to. Ending the wars and other military cuts probably nets 1.5T of that. You can most likely get the same amount from tax reform/expiration of Bush tax cuts. That still leaves another 2T to go out of spending which most likely comes from tweaks in Medicare (means testing, etc).

 

[joecct]

Re: The 112th Congress: Debt ceiling edition

Party discipline, GOP style

The debt ceiling deal will pass the Senate early this afternoon. No suspense there. But the vote will be worth watching for another reason: Three Republican Senate sources tell TWS that senators who vote against the deal will be ineligible to serve on the so-called “supercommittee” for deficit reduction that the legislation creates...

 

[pirate]

Re: The 112th Congress: Debt ceiling edition

Read an article (not online) this morning, assuming it was AP, on how both sides were winners and losers...walked through several aspects of the deal, how it could impact, how it would be spun by dems and reps etc. i apologize, can't find it through google but if anybody has it, may be of some informational value.

 

[Almington]

Re: The 112th Congress: Debt ceiling edition

Basically the country needs another 5T in deficit closure over the next 10 years above the 1T that has been agreed to. Ending the wars and other military cuts probably nets 1.5T of that. You can most likely get the same amount from tax reform/expiration of Bush tax cuts. That still leaves another 2T to go out of spending which most likely comes from tweaks in Medicare (means testing, etc).

Hopefully, the economy can find a way to improve itself in spite of all the headwinds against it. I suspect that significant improvement on the unemployment front would be a huge step forward in trying to close the deficit as revenues would naturally grow.

I think that the most important thing is that this nations financial problem are not going to be solved by one single silver bullet. It's going to take a number of different wedges: Entitlement reform, cutting non-defense discretionary spending, cutting defense/national security spending, tax reform revenue increases, revenue increases from organic growth, and general economic recovery. Some of those we can control, some of those we can't, but to try and solve the long term problem without addressing ALL of those is likely going to end in failure.

 

[Old Pio]

Re: The 112th Congress: Debt ceiling edition

Watching Chris Mathews squealing like a 3rd grader in a haunted house is music to mein ears. Poor baby, did oo have a bad day?

 

[5mn_Major]

Re: The 112th Congress: Debt ceiling edition

Party discipline, GOP style

That makes sense to me. Its not like they will be penalized from serving on any committee...or some other overriding penalty.

They won't be able part of the solution (identifying partnership opportunities to fix economic factors) because they weren't part of the solution up front (voting for it). I think it would always be bad policy to put people who voted against a measure in charge of implementing it.

 

[pirate]

Re: The 112th Congress: Debt ceiling edition

In the real world, you wouldn't count the wind down of the war as a cut, but they will do so in this case. The war would be a 1 time expense (despite its length), removed from the base budget and cutting would then begin. Slowing growth rates in entitlements could be worthy of being called an actual cut if that growth was part of the original debt forecast too. Of course, how those growth rates are to be slowed is a key point...if it is a change to forecasted rates of participation with no foundation, then it is just smoke.

I have to assume somebody in DC has the ratio of 'defense cuts to jobs lost' in their HP, I am all for defense cuts but if they result in large job losses (military personnel or contractors/suppliers) then I won't be surprised if they don't materialze to the degree I'd expect.

Stealing from the movie "Dave"..."do you want to tell America that we are laying off 10,000 people who just spent 10 years fighting a war for this country....I don't want to tell them that, do you?" And frankly, most of the enlisted people won't be great job candidates.

So, we could stop building as many destroyers and close BIW, stop building as many stealth planes and close some other plant but that will be 3-5k jobs lost per decision...not CEO's and Wall Street Bankers...but hard hat and lunchpail people who will not find similar jobs, if any. Now, politicians weren't dying on that hill when it was steel workers, auto workers etc. they let the companies in question make the call and take the heat...I don't think they'll have the backbone to make those decisions at the end of the day.

 

[busterman62]

Re: The 112th Congress: Debt ceiling edition

I don't think they'll have the backbone to make those decisions at the end of the day.

This one statement pretty much sums up Congress and the White House.

 

[JF_Gophers]

Re: The 112th Congress: Debt ceiling edition

I like that Congress can just grant itself an "exception" if it decides it doesn't want to make a cut, or needs to spend more money.

Whats the point of the bill if you can just circumvent it.

 

[5mn_Major]

Re: The 112th Congress: Debt ceiling edition

So, we could stop building as many destroyers and close BIW, stop building as many stealth planes and close some other plant but that will be 3-5k jobs lost per decision...not CEO's and Wall Street Bankers...but hard hat and lunchpail people who will not find similar jobs, if any.

Why they wouldn't I have no idea. Reductions in infrastructure spending hurt construction crews, reductions in education hurt teachers. Every cut (or increase in taxes) hurts someone. Why would the those working in the military industrial be sacred? The only difference is that infrastructure and education actually benefits society as it pays workers. Building yet another tank does not.

But most have the sneaking suspicion that the military will skate through this anyways.

 

[Bakunin]

Re: The 112th Congress: Debt ceiling edition

Keep the military infrastructure in place - and instead of spending / wasting tax dollars on buying it for ourselves, let's just become the world's biggest arms merchant. That way we have tons of jobs here *and* profit off the conflicts around the world (without having to actually get involved in them).

 

[BassAle]

Re: The 112th Congress: Debt ceiling edition

So, we could stop building as many destroyers and close BIW

I think BIW knows the writing is on the wall, at least for a significant reduction in destroyer orders. There is a partnership between UMaine lead by Dr Habib Daghur (who has a very good track record developing new technologies that come to market), Cianbro Corp, BIW, and others to develop new offshore wind technology. The assembly would be done at BIW, the plan is for a multi-gigawatt deep-water offshore project. I think they know they need to branch out into non-defense projects to survive. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DTk3ywMF8qY

I am all for a 30% reduction in military spending on top of winding down the wars, even though there are thousands of defense related jobs in my state (BIW, General Dynamics, national guard humvee maintenance facility, etc)

 

[bigblue_dl]

Re: The 112th Congress: Debt ceiling edition

Keep the military infrastructure in place - and instead of spending / wasting tax dollars on buying it for ourselves, let's just become the world's biggest arms merchant. That way we have tons of jobs here *and* profit off the conflicts around the world (without having to actually get involved in them).

Can we keep all of the active military at active status and become the worlds largest mercenary force also? Selling our support services to the highest bidder?