The 112th Congress: Debt ceiling edition

[Rover]

Re: The 112th Congress: Debt ceiling edition

Well we are wrong...and apparently you are a horrible parent! Kepler and Rover say the deal is a good one...and they are like way smarter than us so we best agree. Time to become a mindless drone. [robot voice] The Dems are always right, they can do no wrong. Left wing politics never screws anything up and all Right wingers are neanderthals [/robot voice]

Handy, if you want to accuse me of being way smarter than just about everybody else out here, I'll plead guilty as charged! Nice of you to finally notice. The problem is absolutists, which David Brooks somewhat touched on but only from a right wing perspective. In a representative democracy as opposed to a dictatorship or a monarchy sometimes you have to made deals with people you don't agree with. A failure to understand this concept has killed the GOP in this negotiation. They went from a 15%/85% split on taxes vs cuts to what? 1.2T in revenue out of 3.7T in total debt reduction is roughly 33%/67%. That's not moving in their direction, and if it turns out to be 2T in tax hikes instead of 1.2 they're even worse off.

 

[Priceless]

Re: The 112th Congress: Debt ceiling edition

More members of Congress should do this. Show just how bad things will be if the debt ceiling isn't raised.

Sen. Michael Bennet, D-Colo., said he wants state residents to understand what is at stake in the congressional battle over the federal debt limit, so he sent out a county-by-county report Tuesday, spelling out what federal benefits might be postponed if the gridlock continues.

According to Bennet, Pueblo County received $1.3 billion in federal payments in 2009. That included $572 million in retirement and disability payments, $314 million in Medicare and other direct payments, $332 million in grants to state and local governments and $40 million in the purchase of local services.

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A disruption in Social Security payments would affect more than 54 million Americans, including 693,000 in Colorado. Similarly, the state has 421,000 veterans receiving some kind of federal benefit or assistance.

Bennet's report said:
Alamosa County received $134 million federal dollars in 2009, including $38 million in retirement and disability payments, $32 million in Medicare and other direct assistance and $47 million in grants.
Bent County reported $54 million in federal dollars, including $22 million in retirement payments, $15 million in Medicare and direct payments and $13 million in grants.
Crowley County received $32 million, including $14 million in retirement and disability, $9 million in Medicare and other aid and $7.7 million in grants.
Fremont County received $366 million in total payments, including $173 million were in retirement funds, $66 million in Medicare and direct assistance and $55 million in grants.
Huerfano County reported $83 million in total federal dollars that include $32 million in retirement and disability payments and $26 million in grants.
Las Animas County received $169 million, including $59 million in retirement payments, $38 million in Medicare and direct assistance and $67 million in grants.
Otero County received $214 million, including $78 million in retirement and disability payments, $56 million in Medicare and direct aid and $68 million grants.
Prowers County reported $111 million in federal payments that year, including $33 million in retirement benefits, $49 million in Medicare and direct aid and $25 million in grants.

 

[ScoobyDoo]

Re: The 112th Congress: Debt ceiling edition

More members of Congress should do this. Show just how bad things will be if the debt ceiling isn't raised.

LOL. All it shows the mindless automatons is that the gubbermint is even bigger than they first expected. Shut'er down. That's what we did in Minnesota, and guess who caved? The Democrat.

 

[Priceless]

Re: The 112th Congress: Debt ceiling edition

LOL. All it shows the mindless automatons is that the gubbermint is even bigger than they first expected. Shut'er down. That's what we did in Minnesota, and guess who caved? The Democrat.

I realize you're even more cynical than I am, and while this may show how big government is it also shows how big of a hole will be left in the economy if we just turn off the spigots on August 3. Even if you want to shrink government, it would be a hell of a lot less dangerous to do it over time than all at once.

But this should cheer you up: Last week InTrade had chances of a debt ceiling increase at over 80%; now it's 40% and dropping fast. Even for a deal by August 31 the odds are only 60%.

 

[Kepler]

Re: The 112th Congress: Debt ceiling edition

But this should cheer you up: Last week InTrade had chances of a debt ceiling increase at over 80%; now it's 40% and dropping fast. Even for a deal by August 31 the odds are only 60%.

I heard a bond trader on some show saying the market's idea of the probability of an actual default (a much smaller number than the likelihood of the ceiling not being raised on time) is the inverse of the value of some financial instrument -- I want to say credit default swap but that's probably way too simple. At the time (last week) he said it indicated the market thought the odds of the US defaulting on sovereign debt were 20,000 to 1. At the same time the odds of Greece defaulting were about even money.

 

[ScoobyDoo]

Re: The 112th Congress: Debt ceiling edition

I heard a bond trader on some show saying the market's idea of the probability of an actual default (a much smaller number than the likelihood of the ceiling not being raised on time) is the inverse of the value of some financial instrument -- I want to say credit default swap but that's probably way too simple. At the time (last week) he said it indicated the market thought the odds of the US defaulting on sovereign debt were 20,000 to 1. At the same time the odds of Greece defaulting were about even money.

Much like you they have no concept of the power of Michele Bachmann.

 

[Kepler]

Re: The 112th Congress: Debt ceiling edition

Much like you they have no concept of the power of Michele Bachmann.

I suppose it is never wise to underestimate crazy.

 

[Rover]

Re: The 112th Congress: Debt ceiling edition

LOL. All it shows the mindless automatons is that the gubbermint is even bigger than they first expected. Shut'er down. That's what we did in Minnesota, and guess who caved? The Democrat.

I wouldn't be holding up Mark Dayton as a proxy for President Obama. Isn't he the same guy who gave up even trying to run for re-election to the Senate because "the Republicans were too mean" to him? I wasn't surprised in the least that he blinked first.

 

[Wol4ine]

Re: The 112th Congress: Debt ceiling edition

More members of Congress should do this. Show just how bad things will be if the debt ceiling isn't raised.

I agree. This proves exactly how much Social Sec. is a Ponzi scheme. If the gubmint shuts down, I'm 100% positive they will still collect SS/Medicare "taxes" from us.

 

[ScoobyDoo]

Re: The 112th Congress: Debt ceiling edition

I agree. This proves exactly how much Social Sec. is a Ponzi scheme. If the gubmint shuts down, I'm 100% positive they will still collect SS/Medicare "taxes" from us.

A Ponzi scheme is a fraudulent investment operation that pays returns to separate investors, not from any actual profit earned by the organization, but from their own money or money paid by subsequent investors. The Ponzi scheme usually entices new investors by offering returns other investments cannot guarantee, in the form of short-term returns that are either abnormally high or unusually consistent. The perpetuation of the returns that a Ponzi scheme advertises and pays requires an ever-increasing flow of money from investors to keep the scheme going.

Sorry, I don't think so. It's insurance, and it is funded, but since they borrowed against it for land wars in Asia (etc.) it's only funded via the full faith and credit of the United States. Which, as we are discussing is close to ending because of partisan politics and years of *** raping the treasury.

 

[Wol4ine]

Re: The 112th Congress: Debt ceiling edition

Sorry, I don't think so. It's insurance, and it is funded, but since they borrowed against it for land wars in Asia (etc.) it's only funded via the full faith and credit of the United States. Which, as we are discussing is close to ending because of partisan politics and years of *** raping the treasury.

Do you think the government would let me stop buying SS 'insurance' and then let me in at 65 yo if I said my age was a preexisting condition??

 

[ScoobyDoo]

Re: The 112th Congress: Debt ceiling edition

Do you think the government would let me stop buying SS 'insurance' and then let me in at 65 yo if I said my age was a preexisting condition??

No, much like health insurance it only works if everyone is involved. Thus the Republican idea in Health Care for an individual mandate. If we allowed people to opt out at 18 and then opt in again at 64 the system would have been bankrupt in 1965, much like Health Care is now.

 

[Wol4ine]

Re: The 112th Congress: Debt ceiling edition

No, much like health insurance it only works if everyone is involved. Thus the Republican idea in Health Care for an individual mandate. If we allowed people to opt out at 18 and then opt in again at 64 the system would have been bankrupt in 1965, much like Health Care is now.

So tell me again how thats NOT a Ponzi scheme? If the 18 yo's weren't there as the base of the pyramid to support the 64 yo's at the top, the system would crash.

 

[Almington]

Re: The 112th Congress: Debt ceiling edition

So tell me again how thats NOT a Ponzi scheme? If the 18 yo's weren't there as the base of the pyramid to support the 64 yo's at the top, the system would crash.

Because, you (in theory) pay in while you work and that money gets paid out to you when you retire. Same as every other pension type system. problem is when you pay out to much and take in to little, you run into a problem. Plus, in the early years money was paid out to people who didn't pay in instead of having that money accumulate. Doesn't even account for the fact that $2+ trillion in cash was converted into IOUs from the government.

 

[Wol4ine]

Re: The 112th Congress: Debt ceiling edition

Because, you (in theory) pay in while you work and that money gets paid out to you when you retire. Same as every other pension type system. problem is when you pay out to much and take in to little, you run into a problem. Plus, in the early years money was paid out to people who didn't pay in instead of having that money accumulate. Doesn't even account for the fact that $2+ trillion in cash was converted into IOUs from the government.

Actually, the money currently paid in is used to pay out current benefits. Which is why I'm confused that if the government shutdown, they wouldn't send out SS checks, but would continue to collect SS taxes.

 

[Almington]

Re: The 112th Congress: Debt ceiling edition

Actually, the money currently paid in is used to pay out current benefits. Which is why I'm confused that if the government shutdown, they wouldn't send out SS checks, but would continue to collect SS taxes.

The Social Security trust fund has over $2 TRILLION in it, the problem is that that money has been loaned to the government already.

The problem will be that the US/SS trust fund won't have the liquidity to pay all the benefits as scheduled.

The US government has 14.3 trillion in debt, only $8.7 (or so) is publicly held, the rest is caught up in an fund accounting mess that is nearly incomprehensible.

 

[Wol4ine]

Re: The 112th Congress: Debt ceiling edition

The Social Security trust fund has over $2 TRILLION in it, the problem is that that money has been loaned to the government already.

The problem will be that the US/SS trust fund won't have the liquidity to pay all the benefits as scheduled.

The US government has 14.3 trillion in debt, only $8.7 (or so) is publicly held, the rest is caught up in an fund accounting mess that is nearly incomprehensible.

So we have the money collected, it's just that the government has borrowed and spent it already. That kind of rhetoric will get you labeled a Tea Bagger extremist.

 

[Foxton]

Re: The 112th Congress: Debt ceiling edition

So we have the money collected, it's just that the government has borrowed and spent it already. That kind of rhetoric will get you labeled a Tea Bagger extremist.

Or Scooby who has repeatedly pointed out that the money was there but was used for other purposes.

 

[joecct]

Re: The 112th Congress: Debt ceiling edition

Or Scooby who has repeatedly pointed out that the money was there but was used for other purposes.

The operative word in the sentence is was.

Just like here.

 

[ScoobyDoo]

Re: The 112th Congress: Debt ceiling edition

The operative word in the sentence is was.

Just like here.

No, that's not the operative word. The money is still backed by the full faith and credit of the United States Government. Who has never missed a payment and has the best credit rating in the world.

Now, perhaps the Congress will follow Michele Bachmann and throw that down the toilet. Could happen. But, up until now those notes were considered as good as money, which is just another form of paper if you stop and think about it.