What's new
By:
USCHO Fan Forum

This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!

  • The USCHO Fan Forum has migrated to a new plaform, xenForo. Most of the function of the forum should work in familiar ways. Please note that you can switch between light and dark modes by clicking on the gear icon in the upper right of the main menu bar. We are hoping that this new platform will prove to be faster and more reliable. Please feel free to explore its features.

Space exploration: Where do we go from here?

LynahFan said:
Even on airplanes, fewer engines is better....down to a point. If you're flying over water, redundancy is nice. But fewer bigger engines is such a huge cost incentive that the regulating agencies have developed a certification called "ETOPS," (which officially stands for "extended twin operations" but is better known by running industry joke as "Engines Turn Or People Swim"). Without ETOPS, twin engine aircraft have to be within 60 minutes of flight time (on a single engine) of a suitable divert runway at all times. You can get ETOPS ratings to allow longer times, up to 330 minutes, which basically covers 100% of the earth's surface.

So you can be a less nervous flyer, ETOPS certification is based not only on the design characteristics of the airplane ("how many redundant fuel pumps do you have?") but also on the actual service history of the planes, as maintained by the operator. So if United maintains their planes better and experiences fewer failures as a result, they may be able to get certified for more minutes of ETOPs than American can for the exact same type of aircraft. Going for an ETOPs cert therefore means that the airline has committed to collecting and documenting all the right failure rate data (in perpetuity, not just a one-time thing) to prove to the FAA that ETOPs is low risk - and going to all that trouble is still cheaper than adding a 3rd or 4th engine.
Click to expand...

Fun fact: The 777 was the first aircraft to be ETOPS certified at the time of first customer delivery. https://www.amazon.com/Twenty-First-Century-Jet-Making-Marketing-Boeing/dp/0684807211
 
MichVandal said:
Most of his money is in value of stock, and that can very much take a dump. And these huge rocket launches have to be incredibly expensive, moreso that they have to keep repeating them to reach ALL of the steps they need to reach before a real launch.

We have to hope for the other launch businesses start taking business from X. Once there is real business for launches, their monopoly goes very much away.
Click to expand...

The companies would have to go under...all of them...to even approach the idea and that isn't taking into account other investments he likely has and liquid assets. He is never going broke.
 
Handyman said:
The companies would have to go under...all of them...to even approach the idea and that isn't taking into account other investments he likely has and liquid assets. He is never going broke.
Click to expand...

X is already going to he!!, so that one is going to drain a big amount from his pockets. If Tesla continues to try to sell terrible cars at a premium (which they are doing), that's not going to last that long under his ownership. And SpaceX... those launches are super expensive to keep hitting the destruct button, in spite of all the "they are learning so much" bs. The only think holding them together is Starlink and the ISS.

All of them going under isn't totally unheard of. And if he keeps revealing his true self.... The right don't want EVs, and liberals don't want to buy cars from Nazis. X has lost how many sources of revenue (big advertisers)?

I would never say never in this case.
 
Handyman said:
The companies would have to go under...all of them...to even approach the idea and that isn't taking into account other investments he likely has and liquid assets. He is never going broke.
Click to expand...

Not necessarily. He's taken on a significant amount of loans against that stock. Not just with the twitter deal. The problem is if it gets bad enough it starts to snowball very, very quickly.
 
dxmnkd316 said:
Yes, it hasn't been been a year. Sam Bankman Fried.
Click to expand...

But Fried wasn't a billionaire, because he could never have realized the share price on his holdings had he tried to unload them. It was a Ponzi scheme.

If you own tangible, persistent value of a billion dollars, you are a billionaire. If you own a billion "dollars" in a fraudulent enterprise, or a billion "dollars" in debt from people who cannot pay, you're a bankrupt.
 
Last edited:
Kepler said:
But Fried wasn't a billionaire, because he could never have realized the share price on his holdings had he tried to unload them. It was a Ponzi scheme.

If you own tangible property worth a billionaire dollars, you are a billionaire. If you own enormous amounts of shares in a fraudulent enterprise, or a billion dollars in debt from people who cannot pay, you're a bankrupt.
Click to expand...

I get your point, but if elon starts selling off that much to maintain a massive fortune, his stock would take a massive loss. Which is part of the snowball thing.

I know it's unlikely- but who knows how they really deal with this.

All I know is X is absolutely bleeding money, and the more he says anything, the worse it gets. SpaceX has chosen the most expensive way to go to the moon, let alone Mars, and their "break the system" model isn't actually novel- so that's costing massive money. And Tesla really does make POS vehicles. They claim to be profitable, but the quality is so bad, it won't translate well to normal people. The system makes money via an ISS monopoly, heavy lift satellite monopoly, and the space web. And the latter is really under threat by many other rocket start ups. Some that do it cheaper than they do.

His one way of getting out of it is to buy every single start up. But that won't work with NASA and their subcontractors.

One other point, Tesla is worth massive amount more than GM, Ford, and Stellantis. I would not be shocked if all combined, even. But the latter own so very many plants all over the world that their properties are probably worth more than their stock is. Tesla is more a paper company than the other makers.

It may be unlikely. Very unlikely. But still possible.

Remember, what he sells, many of the nazis that support him do not buy. So the more he talks, the more he undermines his market appeal.
 
MichVandal said:
Remember, what he sells, many of the nazis that support him do not buy. So the more he talks, the more he undermines his market appeal.
Click to expand...

Does Musk's worth depend on consumers anymore? I thought he was wired into that sweet, sweet federal contract stream. Once you're in it's very hard to get kicked out again. You just keep hiring guys with a fed Rolodex who keep the contracts landing. And the barrier to entry protects you.
 
Kepler said:
Does Musk's worth depend on consumers anymore? I thought he was wired into that sweet, sweet federal contract stream. Once you're in it's very hard to get kicked out again. You just keep hiring guys with a fed Rolodex who keep the contracts landing. And the barrier to entry protects you.
Click to expand...

Just part of it. As far as I know, he does make money selling cars, and he does make money selling space internet service. That above the federal contracts. Tesla's stock is $756B, SpaceX is $150B, X $41B. So most of his personal wealth is in Tesla stock.

And government contracts an areas that is not permanent. If the rocket start ups get enough traction, or even NASA's subcontractors get going- those contracts are under huge threat. So since Starship is so integrated into that part, I really see a possible crack in the egg shell.

edit- I can't read this article https://fortune.com/2023/10/31/elon-musk-net-worth-wealth-tesla-twitter-x/ but the google search suggest that his net worth is down 40% thanks to X and Tesla stocks going down. Granted it's 40% of a massive amount of money. But 40% is a lot.
 
Last edited:
dxmnkd316 said:
Not necessarily. He's taken on a significant amount of loans against that stock. Not just with the twitter deal. The problem is if it gets bad enough it starts to snowball very, very quickly.
Click to expand...

Right but you are assuming that he only has investments in his own companies...which he doesn't. He was born on 3rd base and I highly doubt he is cash poor at this point. You and Vandal are dreaming if you think he is ever going broke.
 
dxmnkd316 said:
Yes, it hasn't been been a year. Sam Bankman Fried.
Click to expand...

That is an awful example...he was not a billionaire it was all fraud. His numbers were inflated by crypto that he faked the value of while allowing his other company to steal from his investors. He was no more a billionaire than Bernie Madoff was. They were paper tigers...

Musk is not the same animal.
 
MichVandal said:
I get your point, but if elon starts selling off that much to maintain a massive fortune, his stock would take a massive loss. Which is part of the snowball thing.

I know it's unlikely- but who knows how they really deal with this.

All I know is X is absolutely bleeding money, and the more he says anything, the worse it gets. SpaceX has chosen the most expensive way to go to the moon, let alone Mars, and their "break the system" model isn't actually novel- so that's costing massive money. And Tesla really does make POS vehicles. They claim to be profitable, but the quality is so bad, it won't translate well to normal people. The system makes money via an ISS monopoly, heavy lift satellite monopoly, and the space web. And the latter is really under threat by many other rocket start ups. Some that do it cheaper than they do.

His one way of getting out of it is to buy every single start up. But that won't work with NASA and their subcontractors.

One other point, Tesla is worth massive amount more than GM, Ford, and Stellantis. I would not be shocked if all combined, even. But the latter own so very many plants all over the world that their properties are probably worth more than their stock is. Tesla is more a paper company than the other makers.

It may be unlikely. Very unlikely. But still possible.

Remember, what he sells, many of the nazis that support him do not buy. So the more he talks, the more he undermines his market appeal.
Click to expand...

If he sells off to maintain his fortune, he may take a loss but he will still be liquid. And he can then write off the loss just like Trump and others do.

Must is worth a quarter of a trillion dollars...as long as he is diversified he will be just fine.
 
MichVandal said:
Just part of it. As far as I know, he does make money selling cars, and he does make money selling space internet service. That above the federal contracts. Tesla's stock is $756B, SpaceX is $150B, X $41B. So most of his personal wealth is in Tesla stock.

And government contracts an areas that is not permanent. If the rocket start ups get enough traction, or even NASA's subcontractors get going- those contracts are under huge threat. So since Starship is so integrated into that part, I really see a possible crack in the egg shell.

edit- I can't read this article https://fortune.com/2023/10/31/elon-musk-net-worth-wealth-tesla-twitter-x/ but the google search suggest that his net worth is down 40% thanks to X and Tesla stocks going down. Granted it's 40% of a massive amount of money. But 40% is a lot.
Click to expand...

Yes it took an epically bad year and a half and he dropped quite a bit of cash on paper. And after the fact he was still worth nearly $200 billion.

Look, no one thinks Musk is a bigger idiot than me, but he will be a billionaire 10 years from now. Unless he is killed by the Saudis for tanking Twitter...which is an enjoyable thought.
 
Handyman said:
That is an awful example...he was not a billionaire it was all fraud. His numbers were inflated by crypto that he faked the value of while allowing his other company to steal from his investors. He was no more a billionaire than Bernie Madoff was. They were paper tigers...

Musk is not the same animal.
Click to expand...

See also Holmes, Elizabeth.
 
Handyman said:
Yes it took an epically bad year and a half and he dropped quite a bit of cash on paper. And after the fact he was still worth nearly $200 billion.

Look, no one thinks Musk is a bigger idiot than me, but he will be a billionaire 10 years from now. Unless he is killed by the Saudis for tanking Twitter...which is an enjoyable thought.
Click to expand...

If he has to sell off, he’ll not run the companies anymore, right? Which is more important that making him poor.
 
Handyman said:
That is an awful example...he was not a billionaire it was all fraud. His numbers were inflated by crypto that he faked the value of while allowing his other company to steal from his investors. He was no more a billionaire than Bernie Madoff was. They were paper tigers...

Musk is not the same animal.
Click to expand...

But enough about all billionaires.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top